amazon case study

Predicting The Future Of Demand: How Amazon Is Reinventing Forecasting With Machine Learning

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What if you could use data to predict what a customer will buy, one year before they even know they want it?

Automating through machine learning (ML) allowed Amazon.com to predict future demand for millions of products globally in seconds. Leaders at the multinational tech giant successfully reinvented their data infrastructure to improve buying systems, automate the placement of inventory in fulfillment centers, and deliver on their promise of two-day shipping to customers.

Through a comprehensive predictive model built entirely on the cloud, Amazon.com is using data to make better decisions, streamline operations, and deliver winning consumer experiences.

Reinventing manual product forecasting through machine learning

Predicting customer demand is no easy task in e-commerce since delayed inventory or inaccurate shipments can be costly and disrupt the supply chain. Although 80% to 90% of all planning tasks can be automated, many industries still rely on manual forecasting.

E-commerce retailers sometimes need to forecast hundreds of millions of products, and “no amount of human brain power can forecast at that scale on a daily basis,” says Jenny Freshwater, vice president of Traffic & Marketing Technology at Amazon.com, and former VP of Forecasting. Freshwater’s team led forecasting of over 400 million products at Amazon.

Engineering teams, no matter how advanced, can’t do it all: assess historical trends, develop unit sales projections, and conduct independent research for such a high volume of products. Even when combined with more sophisticated models, legacy systems, like outdated computing software or manual inventory logs, won’t be as accurate as machine learning models.

And when demand spikes unexpectedly, the burden on the supply chain can become even more difficult to handle without modern forecasting methods. When toilet paper sales surged by 213% at the height of the Covid-19 pandemic, Amazon used AI-driven predictive forecasting to respond quickly to unforeseen demand signals and increase adaptability to market fluctuations Freshwater notes, “Of course, we could have never anticipated that spike prior to COVID, but our models reacted quickly to the new demand trend.”

Freshwater recommends that retailers reprioritize their machine learning roadmaps to cope with the unexpected. The pandemic was the trigger for her team to make changes and implement new ideas. The team reinvented inputs to their models, including using medical data, COVID case counts and macroeconomic data, and shifted from forecasting based on a number with confidence intervals to scenario-based forecasting. “What we found was that the work that we had to do around the pandemic, almost all of it, from adding new data, to new features, to scenario forecasting, we had thought of before, but had never prioritized, because it wasn't urgent at the time,” she says. “With the pandemic hitting, we reprioritized. And many of the things that we had wanted to implement in the past are now in production.”

How Amazon.com became a leader in product forecasting

According to Freshwater, Amazon’s journey with machine learning began about 10 years ago to improve forecast accuracy. “We started to use machine learning because our moving average models were just not as accurate as we had hoped they would be.”

Company leaders saw a need to use data and machine learning to deliver on customer promises and achieve cost-effective functionality at scale. With those goals in mind, Amazon.com set out to become an AI-driven leader in product forecasting.

To accelerate the process in the face of rising demand, the company partnered with Amazon Web Services (AWS) to build “machine learning models that have grown in terms of magnitude of data, the features that we use to predict demand, as well as the complexity of the algorithms, to where today, we're using neural network models to predict demand for the products that we sell on Amazon.” Freshwater says, “We looked at how our human forecasts were performing and how our machine learning forecasts were performing. And it was night and day in terms of the difference.”

Amazon.com uses machine learning on AWS to aggregate and analyze purchasing data on products, and run their forecasting models. Additionally, the company uses browsing and purchasing data to provide more tailored product recommendations. Machine learning allows for data experimentation that enables data scientists to create a better and more personalized experience for customers.

For Freshwater, prototyping and iteration was key to achieving machine learning success. ”We used a prototyping approach, looking at specific use cases, measuring the results against our existing models, and, at a certain point, we were able to achieve a 15 times greater improvement than we'd ever achieved before through these neural network models,” she says. “So, it was very much an iterative process.

Key takeaways for business leaders using predictive models

ML on the cloud is key to deriving valuable insights from data and making better business decisions. Consider these practices to maximize ML modeling in your reinvention journey.

Trust the model. Regular monitoring of millions of products takes up valuable engineering time and resources. Freshwater says nearly all of Amazon’s “forecasting is automated through machine learning models, and human beings and business users only interact with the forecast and override it when they have some information that the models couldn't possibly have.” Leaders should encourage teams to selectively interact with the forecast, letting the models work while business users focus on other critical tasks. Overrides should be considered when you are confident you have more qualitative or trend-focused information than the model.
Define a clear data strategy. It’s impossible to think of machine learning – and getting real value out of ML models – without first having a data strategy in place. At Amazon, preparing the data for ML use was a key part of the strategy. “When I talk to people about our journey from our old modeling to the new, I guess that about 40% of the time was actually spent in preparing the data,” says Freshwater. “Features are really all about getting the data in the right place. Without really spending that time and effort, we would risk either getting poor results or biased results because the data didn't properly represent our decision set.” Building a data strategy that aligns with business goals, prioritizing data cleansing, and making data representative of what you’re trying to predict or optimize is key for leaders starting their ML journey.
Know what you’re measuring. Early on in your reinvention journey, it’s important to be crisp about what you’re measuring and how you know you’ve improved. Freshwater recalls, “In our problem space, we were forecasting for more and more products every year. So just by looking at year over year comparisons, it wasn't good enough. We had to implement a series of benchmarking models that used completely different scientific methodology to know if versus the benchmark, our new models were better.” Spend time upfront defining your measurement and success criteria to prevent time wasted on churn.
Build a data-driven culture. Getting the most out of your machine learning initiatives requires nurturing a cultural of innovation and data-driven thinking across the organization. “Reinvention projects really are about being able to take risks and being able to fail fast,” says Freshwater. “Pick people who are OK with several failures before a success. I think that culture needs to be encouraged when you’re working on any prototype – because the first results aren't always a winner. If they are, maybe you're not thinking big enough.” When experimenting with machine learning, make sure you have people at all levels of the organization who are passionate about the prospect of what ML can deliver. Freshwater adds, “Given that Amazon is such a data-driven culture, we were able to move the needle almost entirely towards machine learning, just by looking at the fact that our models were much more accurate from a forecasting accuracy perspective.”

Amazon has paved the way for predicting the future, but they’re just getting started. Your organization too can reinvent itself using AI technologies and data. Learn more at aws.amazon.com/data/ .

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A Comprehensive Case Study on Amazon's Marketing Strategy

Amazon has emerged as a market leader in e-commerce. A portion of its success can be attributed to its innovative and effective marketing strategies. This comprehensive case study delves into the various aspects of Amazon's marketing strategy and explores the key factors that have made it the brand and multi-faceted business it is today.

Understanding Amazon's Marketing Strategy

The core principles of amazon's marketing.

At the heart of Amazon's marketing strategy lies a strong focus on customer satisfaction. The company's relentless pursuit of customer centricity has played a crucial role in its success. By consistently prioritizing the needs and preferences of its customers, Amazon has created a loyal customer base that keeps coming back for more.

Amazon's commitment to customer satisfaction goes beyond just providing quality products. The company understands that a positive customer experience begins with a user-friendly website interface. With a clean and intuitive design, Amazon ensures that customers can easily navigate through the vast selection of products and find exactly what they are looking for.

Amazon employs a data-driven approach to marketing . The company leverages advanced analytics and algorithms to understand customer behavior, identify trends, and personalize the buyer experience. This allows Amazon to target its marketing efforts with precision, ensuring maximum return on investment.

Through its data-driven approach, Amazon is able to gain valuable insights into customer preferences and shopping habits. By analyzing vast amounts of data, Amazon can identify patterns and trends, enabling the company to make informed decisions about product offerings and marketing strategies .

Related: Unveiling Home Depot's Winning Marketing Strategy

The Role of Customer Centricity in Amazon's Strategy

Amazon's customer-centric approach is evident in every aspect of its marketing strategy . From its user-friendly website interface to its hassle-free return policy, the company constantly strives to deliver exceptional customer experiences. By continuously adapting and improving its services based on customer feedback, Amazon has built a reputation for reliability and trustworthiness.

One of the ways Amazon demonstrates its commitment to customer centricity is through its hassle-free return policy. The company understands that customers may occasionally need to return or exchange a product, and Amazon makes the process as seamless as possible. This not only enhances the overall customer experience but also instills confidence in customers, knowing that their satisfaction is a top priority.

Amazon utilizes customer data to create personalized product recommendations and targeted marketing campaigns. By understanding individual customer preferences and purchase history, Amazon can effectively cross-sell and upsell products, increasing customer satisfaction and revenue. This marketing strategy creates repeat customers and expand's the brand's reach for its own products and its sellers.

Amazon's personalized product recommendations are powered by sophisticated algorithms that analyze a customer's browsing and purchase history. By leveraging this data, Amazon is able to suggest products that are highly relevant to each customer's unique interests and preferences. This not only enhances the shopping experience, but also increases the likelihood of customers discovering new products they may not have otherwise considered.

Amazon also makes personalized marketing available to sellers through its advertising platform. Amazon sellers can create ads for their products that will be shown to people who search for products in the same category, or who buy similar products.

Amazon's marketing strategy revolves around customer satisfaction and data-driven decision making. By prioritizing the needs and preferences of its customers, and leveraging advanced analytics, Amazon has been able to build a loyal customer base and deliver exceptional shopping experiences. Through its customer-centric approach, Amazon continues to innovate and adapt, ensuring that it remains a leader in the e-commerce industry.

Related: Liquid Death Marketing Strategy Case Study: Slaying the Beverage Industry with Killer Branding and Marketing

Dissecting Amazon's SEO Strategy

When it comes to search engine optimization (SEO), Amazon is a master of the game. The company understands the importance of optimizing product listings with relevant keywords to ensure maximum visibility and sales. Its massive infrastructure of product landing pages, product categories, and interlinking between pages make for the perfect SEO play. But what exactly does Amazon do to achieve this?

Importance of Keywords in Amazon's SEO

Amazon's SEO strategy revolves around thorough keyword research. The company invests significant time and resources into identifying the most popular search terms used by customers. By incorporating these keywords strategically within product titles, descriptions, and backend fields, Amazon ensures that its products appear higher in search results. It also encourages sellers to leverage keyword strategies in their own product listings and advertising campaigns on the platform.

However, keyword optimization is just the tip of the iceberg. Amazon recognizes that positive reviews and ratings are equally important in boosting a product's search ranking and instilling trust in potential buyers. To encourage customer feedback, Amazon actively solicits reviews and provides a platform for customers to share their opinions.

By combining keyword optimization with a strong focus on customer reviews, Amazon creates a powerful SEO strategy that maximizes product visibility and drives sales.

Related: Exploring Five Guys' Marketing Strategy

How Amazon Optimizes Product Listings

Amazon goes above and beyond to optimize product listings and enhance their visibility. One of the key elements is the inclusion of high-quality product images. These images capture customer interest and provide a visual representation of the product. Additionally, informative descriptions play a crucial role in educating customers about the product's features and benefits.

But Amazon doesn't stop there. The company offers product videos and enhanced content features to provide customers with a comprehensive understanding of the product. These additional resources allow customers to make informed purchasing decisions and further increase the chances of a sale.

Moreover, Amazon leverages its vast customer review data to enrich product listings. By identifying and displaying relevant product information, such as frequently asked questions, customer-generated images, and comparisons with similar products, Amazon creates a dynamic and engaging shopping experience. This user-generated content aids in customer decision-making and adds a layer of authenticity to the product listings.

Amazon also offers these marketing tools to sellers, brands, and shops who sell products on Amazon. Enriching their ability to represent products, and driving more sales overall on the Amazon platform.

By combining keyword optimization, high-quality visuals, informative descriptions, and user-generated content, Amazon creates a compelling SEO strategy that not only boosts visibility but also enhances the overall shopping experience for customers.

Related: Dyson Marketing Strategy: A Look at Home Appliance Go-to-Market Strategy and Branding

Amazon's Advertising Tactics

Amazon, the e-commerce giant, employs various advertising strategies to help sellers promote their products and increase their visibility within the marketplace. The marketing support Amazon offers sellers is a strategy that ultimately drives greater utilization and more sales in the Amazon ecosystem.

One of the key tactics utilized by Amazon is its pay-per-click (PPC) advertising model.

Amazon's Pay-Per-Click Advertising

Through its own advertising platform, Amazon offers sellers the opportunity to bid on relevant keywords, ensuring that their products appear prominently in search results and sponsored product listings in the Amazon app. This targeted approach allows sellers to reach potential customers precisely when they are actively searching for similar products.

What sets Amazon's PPC advertising apart is its real-time performance tracking. Sellers can monitor the effectiveness of their campaigns and make data-driven decisions to optimize their advertising spend and adjust bidding strategies accordingly. This level of control ensures that sellers maximize their return on investment and achieve their desired outcomes.

Furthermore, Amazon provides sellers with valuable insights and analytics, allowing them to understand customer behavior, preferences, and trends. Armed with this information, sellers can refine their advertising strategies and tailor their offerings to meet the needs and expectations of their target audience.

Related: The Effective Lego Marketing Strategy: Building Success Brick by Brick

Amazon's Social Media Presence

The impact of social media on amazon's growth.

While Amazon's success primarily stems from its e-commerce platform, its social media presence has also played a significant role in its growth. Through various social media channels, Amazon engages with its customers and fosters a community of brand advocates. This direct and interactive approach strengthens customer relationships and builds brand loyalty.

One way Amazon utilizes social media to connect with its customers is by actively responding to their comments and inquiries. Whether it's addressing a customer concern or simply thanking them for their support, Amazon's social media team ensures that every interaction is meaningful and personalized. This level of engagement not only makes customers feel valued but also creates a sense of trust and reliability.

Moreover, social media provides Amazon with a platform to promote its products, offer exclusive deals, and share informative content. By leveraging the power of social media influencers and user-generated content, Amazon expands its reach and generates buzz around its offerings.

For instance, Amazon collaborates with popular influencers in various niches to showcase their products and services. These influencers, who have a large and dedicated following, help create brand awareness and drive traffic to Amazon's website. Additionally, Amazon encourages customers to share their experiences and opinions through user-generated content, such as reviews and testimonials. This not only provides valuable insights for potential customers but also acts as a form of social proof, further enhancing Amazon's credibility and reputation.

Related: Lululemon Marketing Strategy - A Closer Look

Amazon's Approach to Social Media Marketing

Amazon understands the importance of tailoring its social media marketing strategy to suit different platforms and target demographics. Whether it's creating visually appealing content for Instagram or utilizing Facebook's powerful ad targeting capabilities, Amazon deploys a multi-pronged approach to maximize its social media presence.

On Instagram, Amazon showcases its products through stunning visuals and creative storytelling. The platform's emphasis on aesthetics allows Amazon to highlight the unique features and benefits of its offerings, captivating users' attention and driving engagement. Additionally, Amazon utilizes Instagram's shopping features, enabling users to seamlessly purchase products directly from the app.

Furthermore, Amazon actively encourages user-generated content by incentivizing customers to share their experiences and opinions on social media. Through contests, giveaways, and customer spotlight features, Amazon taps into the power of word-of-mouth marketing and harnesses the influence of its satisfied customer base.

Amazon also recognizes the potential of video content in capturing users' attention and conveying its brand message effectively. The company leverages platforms like YouTube and TikTok to create engaging and informative videos that showcase its products in action. These videos not only entertain and educate viewers but also drive traffic to Amazon's website, ultimately leading to increased sales.

In addition to organic content, Amazon also invests in paid social media advertising to reach a wider audience. By utilizing Facebook's powerful ad targeting capabilities, Amazon can tailor its advertisements to specific demographics, interests, and behaviors. This targeted approach ensures that Amazon's ads are shown to the most relevant audience, maximizing the return on investment and driving conversions.

Related: Uniqlo's Winning Marketing Strategy

The Power of Amazon Prime in Marketing

How amazon prime enhances customer loyalty.

Amazon Prime, Amazon's subscription-based membership program, has revolutionized customer loyalty in the e-commerce industry. By offering free and expedited shipping, exclusive access to deals, and a host of digital benefits such as Prime Video and Prime Music, Amazon has created an unparalleled value proposition for its customers.

With millions of Prime subscribers worldwide, Amazon enjoys a significant competitive advantage. The perks and convenience of Prime membership incentivize customers to consolidate their purchases on Amazon, further solidifying the company's market dominance.

The Role of Prime in Amazon's Sales Strategy

Amazon strategically leverages the power of Prime to drive sales and promote customer engagement. For instance, the Amazon Prime Day, an annual sales event exclusively for Prime members, generates tremendous buzz and boosts sales across various product categories.

Additionally, Prime's vast customer base provides Amazon with valuable data and insights, enabling the company to personalize its marketing strategy and offer targeted promotions. By understanding individual customer preferences and purchase patterns, Amazon can deliver highly relevant recommendations, driving repeat purchases and fostering long-term customer loyalty.

Related: Costco Marketing Strategy: A Study in Membership and Value

Final Thoughts on the Amazon Marketing Strategy

As this case study demonstrates, Amazon's marketing strategy is a carefully orchestrated combination of customer centricity, SEO tactics, advertising prowess, and social media mastery.

By staying true to its core principles, adapting to changing market dynamics, and embracing innovation, Amazon continues to dominate the e-commerce landscape, setting new benchmarks for success.

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