hypothesis javatpoint

In Statistical hypothesis testing, the P-value or sometimes called probability value, is used to observe the test results or more extreme results by assuming that the null hypothesis (H0) is true. In data science, there are lots of concepts that are borrowed from different disciplines, and the p-value is one of them. The concept of p-value comes from statistics and widely used in and .

In Statistics, our main goal is to determine the statistical significance of our result, and this statistical significance is made on below three concepts:

Let's understand each of them.

can be defined between two terms; and . It is used to check the validity of the null hypothesis or claim made using the sample data. Here, the ) is defined as the hypothesis with no statistical significance between two variables, while an is defined as the hypothesis with a statistical significance between the two variables. No significant relationship between the two variables tells that one variable will not affect the other variable. Thus, the Null hypothesis tells that what you are going to prove doesn't actually happen. If the independent variable doesn't affect the dependent variable, then it shows the alternative hypothesis condition.

In a simple way, we can say that This assumption or claim is validated using the p-value to see if it is statistically significant or not using the evidence. If the evidence supports the alternative hypothesis, then the null hypothesis is rejected.

Below are the steps to perform an experiment for hypothesis testing:

The normal distribution, which is also known as Gaussian distribution, is the Probability distribution function. It is symmetric about the mean, and use to see the distribution of data using a graph plot. It shows that data near the mean is more frequent to occur as compared to data which is far from the mean, and it looks like a . The two main terms of the normal distribution are mean( ) and standard deviation(σ). For a normal distribution, the mean is zero, and the standard deviation is 1.

In hypothesis testing, we need to calculate z-score. is the number of standard deviations from the mean of data-point.

To determine the statistical significance of the hypothesis test is the goal of calculating the p-value. To do this, first, we need to set a threshold, which is said to be alpha. We should always set the value of alpha before the experiment, and it is set to be either 0.05 or 0.01(depending on the type of problem).

The result is concluded as a significant result if the observed p-value is lower than alpha.

Two types of errors are defined for the p-value; these errors are given below:

It is defined as the incorrect or false rejection of the Null hypothesis. For this error, the maximum probability is alpha, and it is set in advance. The error is not affected by the sample size of the dataset. The type I error increases as we increase the number of tests or endpoints.

Type II error is defined as the wrong acceptance of the Null hypothesis. The probability of type II error is beta, and the beta depends upon the sample size and value of alpha. The beta cannot be determined as the function of the true population effect. The value of beta is inversely proportional to the sample size, and it means beta decreases as the sample size increases.

The value of beta also decreases when we increase the number of tests or endpoints.

We can understand the relationship between hypothesis testing and decision on the basis of the below table:

Importance of P-value

The importance of p-value can be understood in two aspects:

• Statistics Aspect: In statistics, the concept of the p-value is important for hypothesis testing and statistical methods such as Regression.
• Data Science Aspect: In data science also, it is one of the important aspect Here the smaller p-value shows that there is an association between the predictor and response. It is advised while working with the machine learning problem in data science, the p-value should be taken carefully.

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ID3 Algorithm and Hypothesis space in Decision Tree Learning

The collection of potential decision trees is the hypothesis space searched by ID3. ID3 searches this hypothesis space in a hill-climbing fashion, starting with the empty tree and moving on to increasingly detailed hypotheses in pursuit of a decision tree that properly classifies the training data.

In this blog, we’ll have a look at the Hypothesis space in Decision Trees and the ID3 Algorithm. 

ID3 Algorithm: 

The ID3 algorithm (Iterative Dichotomiser 3) is a classification technique that uses a greedy approach to create a decision tree by picking the optimal attribute that delivers the most Information Gain (IG) or the lowest Entropy (H).

What is Information Gain and Entropy?  

Information gain: .

The assessment of changes in entropy after segmenting a dataset based on a characteristic is known as information gain.

It establishes how much information a feature provides about a class.

We divided the node and built the decision tree based on the value of information gained.

The greatest information gain node/attribute is split first in a decision tree method, which always strives to maximize the value of information gain. 

The formula for Information Gain: 

Entropy is a metric for determining the degree of impurity in a particular property. It denotes the unpredictability of data. The following formula may be used to compute entropy:

S stands for “total number of samples.”

P(yes) denotes the likelihood of a yes answer.

P(no) denotes the likelihood of a negative outcome.

• Calculate the dataset’s entropy.
• For each feature/attribute.

Determine the entropy for each of the category values.

Calculate the feature’s information gain.

• Find the feature that provides the most information.
• Repeat it till we get the tree we want.

Characteristics of ID3: 

• ID3 takes a greedy approach, which means it might become caught in local optimums and hence cannot guarantee an optimal result.
• ID3 has the potential to overfit the training data (to avoid overfitting, smaller decision trees should be preferred over larger ones).
• This method creates tiny trees most of the time, however, it does not always yield the shortest tree feasible.
• On continuous data, ID3 is not easy to use (if the values of any given attribute are continuous, then there are many more places to split the data on this attribute, and searching for the best value to split by takes a lot of time).

Over Fitting:  

Good generalization is the desired property in our decision trees (and, indeed, in all classification problems), as we noted before. 

This implies we want the model fit on the labeled training data to generate predictions that are as accurate as they are on new, unseen observations.

Capabilities and Limitations of ID3:

• In relation to the given characteristics, ID3’s hypothesis space for all decision trees is a full set of finite discrete-valued functions.
• As it searches across the space of decision trees, ID3 keeps just one current hypothesis. This differs from the prior version space candidate Elimination approach, which keeps the set of all hypotheses compatible with the training instances provided.
• ID3 loses the capabilities that come with explicitly describing all consistent hypotheses by identifying only one hypothesis. It is unable to establish how many different decision trees are compatible with the supplied training data.
• One benefit of incorporating all of the instances’ statistical features (e.g., information gain) is that the final search is less vulnerable to faults in individual training examples.
• By altering its termination criterion to allow hypotheses that inadequately match the training data, ID3 may simply be modified to handle noisy training data.
• In its purest form, ID3 does not go backward in its search. It never goes back to evaluate a choice after it has chosen an attribute to test at a specific level in the tree. As a result, it is vulnerable to the standard dangers of hill-climbing search without backtracking, resulting in local optimum but not globally optimal solutions.
• At each stage of the search, ID3 uses all training instances to make statistically based judgments on how to refine its current hypothesis. This is in contrast to approaches that make incremental judgments based on individual training instances (e.g., FIND-S or CANDIDATE-ELIMINATION ).

Hypothesis Space Search by ID3: 

• ID3 climbs the hill of knowledge acquisition by searching the space of feasible decision trees.
• It looks for all finite discrete-valued functions in the whole space. Every function is represented by at least one tree.
• It only holds one theory (unlike Candidate-Elimination). It is unable to inform us how many more feasible options exist.
• It’s possible to get stranded in local optima.
• At each phase, all training examples are used. Errors have a lower impact on the outcome.

• Data Science

Hypothesis Testing in Data Science [Types, Process, Example]

Home Blog Data Science Hypothesis Testing in Data Science [Types, Process, Example]

In day-to-day life, we come across a lot of data lot of variety of content. Sometimes the information is too much that we get confused about whether the information provided is correct or not. At that moment, we get introduced to a word called “Hypothesis testing” which helps in determining the proofs and pieces of evidence for some belief or information.  

What is Hypothesis Testing?

Hypothesis testing is an integral part of statistical inference. It is used to decide whether the given sample data from the population parameter satisfies the given hypothetical condition. So, it will predict and decide using several factors whether the predictions satisfy the conditions or not. In simpler terms, trying to prove whether the facts or statements are true or not.   

For example, if you predict that students who sit on the last bench are poorer and weaker than students sitting on 1st bench, then this is a hypothetical statement that needs to be clarified using different experiments. Another example we can see is implementing new business strategies to evaluate whether they will work for the business or not. All these things are very necessary when you work with data as a data scientist.  If you are interested in learning about data science, visit this amazing  Data Science full course   to learn data science.    

How is Hypothesis Testing Used in Data Science?

It is important to know how and where we can use hypothesis testing techniques in the field of data science. Data scientists predict a lot of things in their day-to-day work, and to check the probability of whether that finding is certain or not, we use hypothesis testing. The main goal of hypothesis testing is to gauge how well the predictions perform based on the sample data provided by the population. If you are interested to know more about the applications of the data, then refer to this  D ata  Scien ce course in India  which will give you more insights into application-based things. When data scientists work on model building using various machine learning algorithms, they need to have faith in their models and the forecasting of models. They then provide the sample data to the model for training purposes so that it can provide us with the significance of statistical data that will represent the entire population.  

Where and When to Use Hypothesis Test?

Hypothesis testing is widely used when we need to compare our results based on predictions. So, it will compare before and after results. For example, someone claimed that students writing exams from blue pen always get above 90%; now this statement proves it correct, and experiments need to be done. So, the data will be collected based on the student's input, and then the test will be done on the final result later after various experiments and observations on students' marks vs pen used, final conclusions will be made which will determine the results. Now hypothesis testing will be done to compare the 1st and the 2nd result, to see the difference and closeness of both outputs. This is how hypothesis testing is done.  

How Does Hypothesis Testing Work in Data Science?

In the whole data science life cycle, hypothesis testing is done in various stages, starting from the initial part, the 1st stage where the EDA, data pre-processing, and manipulation are done. In this stage, we will do our initial hypothesis testing to visualize the outcome in later stages. The next test will be done after we have built our model, once the model is ready and hypothesis testing is done, we will compare the results of the initial testing and the 2nd one to compare the results and significance of the results and to confirm the insights generated from the 1st cycle match with the 2nd one or not. This will help us know how the model responds to the sample training data. As we saw above, hypothesis testing is always needed when we are planning to contrast more than 2 groups. While checking on the results, it is important to check on the flexibility of the results for the sample and the population. Later, we can judge on the disagreement of the results are appropriate or vague. This is all we can do using hypothesis testing.   

Different Types of Hypothesis Testing

Hypothesis testing can be seen in several types. In total, we have 5 types of hypothesis testing. They are described below:

1. Alternative Hypothesis

The alternative hypothesis explains and defines the relationship between two variables. It simply indicates a positive relationship between two variables which means they do have a statistical bond. It indicates that the sample observed is going to influence or affect the outcome. An alternative hypothesis is described using H a  or H 1 . Ha indicates an alternative hypothesis and H 1  explains the possibility of influenced outcome which is 1. For example, children who study from the beginning of the class have fewer chances to fail. An alternate hypothesis will be accepted once the statistical predictions become significant. The alternative hypothesis can be further divided into 3 parts.   

• Left-tailed: Left tailed hypothesis can be expected when the sample value is less than the true value.   
• Right-tailed: Right-tailed hypothesis can be expected when the true value is greater than the outcome/predicted value.    
• Two-tailed: Two-tailed hypothesis is defined when the true value is not equal to the sample value or the output.   

2. Null Hypothesis

The null hypothesis simply states that there is no relation between statistical variables. If the facts presented at the start do not match with the outcomes, then we can say, the testing is null hypothesis testing. The null hypothesis is represented as H 0 . For example, children who study from the beginning of the class have no fewer chances to fail. There are types of Null Hypothesis described below:   

Simple Hypothesis:  It helps in denoting and indicating the distribution of the population.   

Composite Hypothesis:  It does not denote the population distribution   

Exact Hypothesis:  In the exact hypothesis, the value of the hypothesis is the same as the sample distribution. Example- μ= 10   

Inexact Hypothesis:  Here, the hypothesis values are not equal to the sample. It will denote a particular range of values.   

3. Non-directional Hypothesis 

The non-directional hypothesis is a tow-tailed hypothesis that indicates the true value does not equal the predicted value. In simpler terms, there is no direction between the 2 variables. For an example of a non-directional hypothesis, girls and boys have different methodologies to solve a problem. Here the example explains that the thinking methodologies of a girl and a boy is different, they don’t think alike.    

4. Directional Hypothesis

In the Directional hypothesis, there is a direct relationship between two variables. Here any of the variables influence the other.   

5. Statistical Hypothesis

Statistical hypothesis helps in understanding the nature and character of the population. It is a great method to decide whether the values and the data we have with us satisfy the given hypothesis or not. It helps us in making different probabilistic and certain statements to predict the outcome of the population... We have several types of tests which are the T-test, Z-test, and Anova tests.  

Methods of Hypothesis Testing

1. frequentist hypothesis testing.

Frequentist hypotheses mostly work with the approach of making predictions and assumptions based on the current data which is real-time data. All the facts are based on current data. The most famous kind of frequentist approach is null hypothesis testing.    

2. Bayesian Hypothesis Testing

Bayesian testing is a modern and latest way of hypothesis testing. It is known to be the test that works with past data to predict the future possibilities of the hypothesis. In Bayesian, it refers to the prior distribution or prior probability samples for the observed data. In the medical Industry, we observe that Doctors deal with patients’ diseases using past historical records. So, with this kind of record, it is helpful for them to understand and predict the current and upcoming health conditions of the patient.

Importance of Hypothesis Testing in Data Science

Most of the time, people assume that data science is all about applying machine learning algorithms and getting results, that is true but in addition to the fact that to work in the data science field, one needs to be well versed with statistics as most of the background work in Data science is done through statistics. When we deal with data for pre-processing, manipulating, and analyzing, statistics play. Specifically speaking Hypothesis testing helps in making confident decisions, predicting the correct outcomes, and finding insightful conclusions regarding the population. Hypothesis testing helps us resolve tough things easily. To get more familiar with Hypothesis testing and other prediction models attend the superb useful  KnowledgeHut Data Science full course  which will give you more domain knowledge and will assist you in working with industry-related projects.          

Basic Steps in Hypothesis Testing [Workflow]

1. null and alternative hypothesis.

After we have done our initial research about the predictions that we want to find out if true, it is important to mention whether the hypothesis done is a null hypothesis(H0) or an alternative hypothesis (Ha). Once we understand the type of hypothesis, it will be easy for us to do mathematical research on it. A null hypothesis will usually indicate the no-relationship between the variables whereas an alternative hypothesis describes the relationship between 2 variables.    

• H0 – Girls, on average, are not strong as boys   
• Ha - Girls, on average are stronger than boys   

2. Data Collection

To prove our statistical test validity, it is essential and critical to check the data and proceed with sampling them to get the correct hypothesis results. If the target data is not prepared and ready, it will become difficult to make the predictions or the statistical inference on the population that we are planning to make. It is important to prepare efficient data, so that hypothesis findings can be easy to predict.   

3. Selection of an appropriate test statistic

To perform various analyses on the data, we need to choose a statistical test. There are various types of statistical tests available. Based on the wide spread of the data that is variance within the group or how different the data category is from one another that is variance without a group, we can proceed with our further research study.   

4. Selection of the appropriate significant level

Once we get the result and outcome of the statistical test, we have to then proceed further to decide whether the reject or accept the null hypothesis. The significance level is indicated by alpha (α). It describes the probability of rejecting or accepting the null hypothesis. Example- Suppose the value of the significance level which is alpha is 0.05. Now, this value indicates the difference from the null hypothesis. 

5. Calculation of the test statistics and the p-value

P value is simply the probability value and expected determined outcome which is at least as extreme and close as observed results of a hypothetical test. It helps in evaluating and verifying hypotheses against the sample data. This happens while assuming the null hypothesis is true. The lower the value of P, the higher and better will be the results of the significant value which is alpha (α). For example, if the P-value is 0.05 or even less than this, then it will be considered statistically significant. The main thing is these values are predicted based on the calculations done by deviating the values between the observed one and referenced one. The greater the difference between values, the lower the p-value will be.

6. Findings of the test

After knowing the P-value and statistical significance, we can determine our results and take the appropriate decision of whether to accept or reject the null hypothesis based on the facts and statistics presented to us.

How to Calculate Hypothesis Testing?

Hypothesis testing can be done using various statistical tests. One is Z-test. The formula for Z-test is given below:  

            Z = ( x̅  – μ 0 )  / (σ /√n)    

In the above equation, x̅ is the sample mean   

• μ0 is the population mean   
• σ is the standard deviation    
• n is the sample size   

Now depending on the Z-test result, the examination will be processed further. The result is either going to be a null hypothesis or it is going to be an alternative hypothesis. That can be measured through below formula-   

• H0: μ=μ0   
• Ha: μ≠μ0   
• Here,   
• H0 = null hypothesis   
• Ha = alternate hypothesis   

In this way, we calculate the hypothesis testing and can apply it to real-world scenarios.

Real-World Examples of Hypothesis Testing

Hypothesis testing has a wide variety of use cases that proves to be beneficial for various industries.    

1. Healthcare

In the healthcare industry, all the research and experiments which are done to predict the success of any medicine or drug are done successfully with the help of Hypothesis testing.   

2. Education sector

Hypothesis testing assists in experimenting with different teaching techniques to deal with the understanding capability of different students.   

3. Mental Health

Hypothesis testing helps in indicating the factors that may cause some serious mental health issues.   

4. Manufacturing

Testing whether the new change in the process of manufacturing helped in the improvement of the process as well as in the quantity or not.  In the same way, there are many other use cases that we get to see in different sectors for hypothesis testing. 

Error Terms in Hypothesis Testing

1. type-i error.

Type I error occurs during the process of hypothesis testing when the null hypothesis is rejected even though it is accurate. This kind of error is also known as False positive because even though the statement is positive or correct but results are given as false. For example, an innocent person still goes to jail because he is considered to be guilty.   

2. Type-II error

Type II error occurs during the process of hypothesis testing when the null hypothesis is not rejected even though it is inaccurate. This Kind of error is also called a False-negative which means even though the statements are false and inaccurate, it still says it is correct and doesn’t reject it. For example, a person is guilty, but in court, he has been proven innocent where he is guilty, so this is a Type II error.   

3. Level of Significance

The level of significance is majorly used to measure the confidence with which a null hypothesis can be rejected. It is the value with which one can reject the null hypothesis which is H0. The level of significance gauges whether the hypothesis testing is significant or not.   

P-value stands for probability value, which tells us the probability or likelihood to find the set of observations when the null hypothesis is true using statistical tests. The main purpose is to check the significance of the statistical statement.   

5. High P-Values

A higher P-value indicates that the testing is not statistically significant. For example, a P value greater than 0.05 is considered to be having higher P value. A higher P-value also means that our evidence and proofs are not strong enough to influence the population.

In hypothesis testing, each step is responsible for getting the outcomes and the results, whether it is the selection of statistical tests or working on data, each step contributes towards the better consequences of the hypothesis testing. It is always a recommendable step when planning for predicting the outcomes and trying to experiment with the sample; hypothesis testing is a useful concept to apply.   

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)

We can test a hypothesis by selecting a correct hypothetical test and, based on those getting results.   

Many statistical tests are used for hypothetical testing which includes Z-test, T-test, etc. 

Hypothesis helps us in doing various experiments and working on a specific research topic to predict the results.   

The null and alternative hypothesis, data collection, selecting a statistical test, selecting significance value, calculating p-value, check your findings.    

In simple words, parametric tests are purely based on assumptions whereas non-parametric tests are based on data that is collected and acquired from a sample.   

Gauri Guglani

Gauri Guglani works as a Data Analyst at Deloitte Consulting. She has done her major in Information Technology and holds great interest in the field of data science. She owns her technical skills as well as managerial skills and also is great at communicating. Since her undergraduate, Gauri has developed a profound interest in writing content and sharing her knowledge through the manual means of blog/article writing. She loves writing on topics affiliated with Statistics, Python Libraries, Machine Learning, Natural Language processes, and many more.

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• Null and Alternative Hypotheses | Definitions & Examples

Null & Alternative Hypotheses | Definitions, Templates & Examples

Published on May 6, 2022 by Shaun Turney . Revised on June 22, 2023.

The null and alternative hypotheses are two competing claims that researchers weigh evidence for and against using a statistical test :

• Null hypothesis ( H 0 ): There’s no effect in the population .
• Alternative hypothesis ( H a or H 1 ) : There’s an effect in the population.

Table of contents

Answering your research question with hypotheses, what is a null hypothesis, what is an alternative hypothesis, similarities and differences between null and alternative hypotheses, how to write null and alternative hypotheses, other interesting articles, frequently asked questions.

The null and alternative hypotheses offer competing answers to your research question . When the research question asks “Does the independent variable affect the dependent variable?”:

• The null hypothesis ( H 0 ) answers “No, there’s no effect in the population.”
• The alternative hypothesis ( H a ) answers “Yes, there is an effect in the population.”

The null and alternative are always claims about the population. That’s because the goal of hypothesis testing is to make inferences about a population based on a sample . Often, we infer whether there’s an effect in the population by looking at differences between groups or relationships between variables in the sample. It’s critical for your research to write strong hypotheses .

You can use a statistical test to decide whether the evidence favors the null or alternative hypothesis. Each type of statistical test comes with a specific way of phrasing the null and alternative hypothesis. However, the hypotheses can also be phrased in a general way that applies to any test.

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The null hypothesis is the claim that there’s no effect in the population.

If the sample provides enough evidence against the claim that there’s no effect in the population ( p ≤ α), then we can reject the null hypothesis . Otherwise, we fail to reject the null hypothesis.

Although “fail to reject” may sound awkward, it’s the only wording that statisticians accept . Be careful not to say you “prove” or “accept” the null hypothesis.

Null hypotheses often include phrases such as “no effect,” “no difference,” or “no relationship.” When written in mathematical terms, they always include an equality (usually =, but sometimes ≥ or ≤).

You can never know with complete certainty whether there is an effect in the population. Some percentage of the time, your inference about the population will be incorrect. When you incorrectly reject the null hypothesis, it’s called a type I error . When you incorrectly fail to reject it, it’s a type II error.

Examples of null hypotheses

The table below gives examples of research questions and null hypotheses. There’s always more than one way to answer a research question, but these null hypotheses can help you get started.

*Note that some researchers prefer to always write the null hypothesis in terms of “no effect” and “=”. It would be fine to say that daily meditation has no effect on the incidence of depression and p 1 = p 2 .

The alternative hypothesis ( H a ) is the other answer to your research question . It claims that there’s an effect in the population.

Often, your alternative hypothesis is the same as your research hypothesis. In other words, it’s the claim that you expect or hope will be true.

The alternative hypothesis is the complement to the null hypothesis. Null and alternative hypotheses are exhaustive, meaning that together they cover every possible outcome. They are also mutually exclusive, meaning that only one can be true at a time.

Alternative hypotheses often include phrases such as “an effect,” “a difference,” or “a relationship.” When alternative hypotheses are written in mathematical terms, they always include an inequality (usually ≠, but sometimes < or >). As with null hypotheses, there are many acceptable ways to phrase an alternative hypothesis.

Examples of alternative hypotheses

The table below gives examples of research questions and alternative hypotheses to help you get started with formulating your own.

Null and alternative hypotheses are similar in some ways:

• They’re both answers to the research question.
• They both make claims about the population.
• They’re both evaluated by statistical tests.

However, there are important differences between the two types of hypotheses, summarized in the following table.

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To help you write your hypotheses, you can use the template sentences below. If you know which statistical test you’re going to use, you can use the test-specific template sentences. Otherwise, you can use the general template sentences.

General template sentences

The only thing you need to know to use these general template sentences are your dependent and independent variables. To write your research question, null hypothesis, and alternative hypothesis, fill in the following sentences with your variables:

Does independent variable affect dependent variable ?

• Null hypothesis ( H 0 ): Independent variable does not affect dependent variable.
• Alternative hypothesis ( H a ): Independent variable affects dependent variable.

Test-specific template sentences

Once you know the statistical test you’ll be using, you can write your hypotheses in a more precise and mathematical way specific to the test you chose. The table below provides template sentences for common statistical tests.

Note: The template sentences above assume that you’re performing one-tailed tests . One-tailed tests are appropriate for most studies.

If you want to know more about statistics , methodology , or research bias , make sure to check out some of our other articles with explanations and examples.

• Normal distribution
• Descriptive statistics
• Measures of central tendency
• Correlation coefficient

Methodology

• Cluster sampling
• Stratified sampling
• Types of interviews
• Cohort study
• Thematic analysis

Research bias

• Implicit bias
• Cognitive bias
• Survivorship bias
• Availability heuristic
• Nonresponse bias
• Regression to the mean

Hypothesis testing is a formal procedure for investigating our ideas about the world using statistics. It is used by scientists to test specific predictions, called hypotheses , by calculating how likely it is that a pattern or relationship between variables could have arisen by chance.

Null and alternative hypotheses are used in statistical hypothesis testing . The null hypothesis of a test always predicts no effect or no relationship between variables, while the alternative hypothesis states your research prediction of an effect or relationship.

The null hypothesis is often abbreviated as H 0 . When the null hypothesis is written using mathematical symbols, it always includes an equality symbol (usually =, but sometimes ≥ or ≤).

The alternative hypothesis is often abbreviated as H a or H 1 . When the alternative hypothesis is written using mathematical symbols, it always includes an inequality symbol (usually ≠, but sometimes < or >).

A research hypothesis is your proposed answer to your research question. The research hypothesis usually includes an explanation (“ x affects y because …”).

A statistical hypothesis, on the other hand, is a mathematical statement about a population parameter. Statistical hypotheses always come in pairs: the null and alternative hypotheses . In a well-designed study , the statistical hypotheses correspond logically to the research hypothesis.

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Maximum Likelihood in Machine Learning

Introduction.

Maximum likelihood is an approach commonly used for such density estimation problems, in which a likelihood function is defined to get the probabilities of the distributed data. It is imperative to study and understand the concept of maximum likelihood as it is one of the primary and core concepts essential for learning other advanced machine learning and deep learning techniques and algorithms.

In this article, we will discuss the likelihood function, the core idea behind that, and how it works with code examples. This will help one to understand the concept better and apply the same when needed.

Let us dive into the likelihood first to understand the maximum likelihood estimation.

What is the Likelihood?

In machine learning, the likelihood is a measure of the data observations up to which it can tell us the results or the target variables value for particular data points. In simple words, as the name suggests, the likelihood is a function that tells us how likely the specific data point suits the existing data distribution.

For example. Suppose there are two data points in the dataset. The likelihood of the first data point is greater than the second. In that case, it is assumed that the first data point provides accurate information to the final model, hence being likable for the model being informative and precise.

After this discussion, a gentle question may appear in your mind, If the working of the likelihood function is the same as the probability function, then what is the difference?

Difference Between Probability and Likelihood

Although the working and intuition of both probability and likelihood appear to be the same, there is a slight difference, here the possibility is a function that defines or tells us how accurate the particular data point is valuable and contributes to the final algorithm in data distribution and how likely is to the machine learning algorithm.

Whereas probability, in simple words is a term that describes the chance of some event or thing happening concerning other circumstances or conditions, mostly known as conditional probability.

Also, the sum of all the probabilities associated with a particular problem is one and can not exceed it, whereas the likelihood can be greater than one.

What is Maximum Likelihood Estimation?

After discussing the intuition of the likelihood function, it is clear to us that a higher likelihood is desired for every model to get an accurate model and has accurate results. So here, the term maximum likelihood represents that we are maximizing the likelihood function, called the Maximization of the Likelihood Function .

Let us try to understand the same with an example.

Let us suppose that we have a classification dataset in which the independent column is the marks of the students that they achieved in the particular exam, and the target or dependent column is categorical, which has yes and No attributes representing if students are placed on the campus placements or not.

Noe here, if we try to solve the same problem with the help of maximum likelihood estimation, the function will first calculate the probability of every data point according to every suitable condition for the target variable. In the next step, the function will plot all the data points in the two-dimensional plots and try to find the line that best fits the dataset to divide it into two parts. Here the best-fit line will be achieved after some epochs, and once achieved, the line is used to classify the data point by simply plotting it to the graph.

Maximum Likelihood: The Base

The maximum likelihood estimation is a base of some machine learning and deep learning approaches used for classification problems. One example is logistic regression, where the algorithm is used to classify the data point using the best-fit line on the graph. The same approach is known as the perceptron trick regarding deep learning algorithms.

As shown in the above image, all the data observations are plotted in a two-dimensional diagram where the X-axis represents the independent column or the training data, and the y-axis represents the target variable. The line is drawn to separate both data observations, positives and negatives. According to the algorithm, the observations that fall above the line are considered positive, and data points below the line are regarded as negative data points.

Maximum Likelihood Estimation: Code Example

We can quickly implement the maximum likelihood estimation technique using logistic regression on any classification dataset. Let us try to implement the same.

The above code will fit the logistic regression for the given dataset and generate the line plot for the data representing the distribution of the data and the best fit according to the algorithm.

Key Takeaways

Maximum Likelihood is a function that describes the data points and their likeliness to the model for best fitting.

Maximum likelihood is different from the probabilistic methods, where probabilistic methods work on the principle of calculation probabilities. In contrast, the likelihood method tries o maximize the likelihood of data observations according to the data distribution.

Maximum likelihood is an approach used for solving the problems like density distribution and is a base for some algorithms like logistic regression.

The approach is very similar and is predominantly known as the perceptron trick in terms of deep learning methods.

In this article, we discussed the likelihood function, maximum likelihood estimation, its core intuition, and working mechanism with practical examples associated with some key takeaways. This will help one understand the maximum likelihood better and more deeply and help answer interview questions related to the same very efficiently.

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Church’s Thesis for Turing Machine

In 1936, A method named as lambda-calculus was created by Alonzo Church in which the Church numerals are well defined, i.e. the encoding of natural numbers. Also in 1936, Turing machines (earlier called theoretical model for machines) was created by Alan Turing, that is used for manipulating the symbols of string with the help of tape.

Church Turing Thesis :

Turing machine is defined as an abstract representation of a computing device such as hardware in computers. Alan Turing proposed Logical Computing Machines (LCMs), i.e. Turing’s expressions for Turing Machines. This was done to define algorithms properly. So, Church made a mechanical method named as ‘M’ for manipulation of strings by using logic and mathematics. This method M must pass the following statements:

• Number of instructions in M must be finite.
• Output should be produced after performing finite number of steps.
• It should not be imaginary, i.e. can be made in real life.
• It should not require any complex understanding.

Using these statements Church proposed a hypothesis called

Church’s Turing thesis

that can be stated as: “The assumption that the intuitive notion of computable functions can be identified with partial recursive functions.”

Or in simple words we can say that “Every computation that can be carried out in the real world can be effectively performed by a Turing Machine.”

In 1930, this statement was first formulated by Alonzo Church and is usually referred to as Church’s thesis, or the Church-Turing thesis. However, this hypothesis cannot be proved. The recursive functions can be computable after taking following assumptions:

• Each and every function must be computable.
• Let ‘F’ be the computable function and after performing some elementary operations to ‘F’, it will transform a new function ‘G’ then this function ‘G’ automatically becomes the computable function.
• If any functions that follow above two assumptions must be states as computable function.

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Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) in Machine Learning

Table of Content

• What is Maximum Likelihood Estimation(MLE)?
• Properties of Likelihood Extimates
• Deriving the Likelihood Function 
• Log Likelihood
• Applications of MLE
• Final Thoughts

  1. What is Maximum Likelihood Estimation? The likelihood of a given set of observations is the probability of obtaining that particular set of data, given chosen probability distribution model. MLE is carried out by writing an expression known as the Likelihood function for  a set of observations. This expression contains an unknown parameter, say, θ  of he model. We obtain the value of this parameter that maximizes the likelihood of the observations. This value is called maximum likelihood estimate. Think of MLE as opposite of probability. While probability function tries to determine the probability of the parameters for a given sample, likelihood tries to determine the probability of the samples given  the parameter.

2. Properties of Maximum Likelihood Estimates MLE has the very desirable properties especially for very large sample sizes some of which are: likelihood function are very efficient in testing hypothesis about models and parameters they become unbiased minimum variance estimator with increasing sample size they have approximate normal distributions

3. Deriving the Likelihood Function Assuming a random sample x 1 , x 2 , x 3 , … ,x n which have joint probability density and denoted by:

Normal 0 false false false EN-GB X-NONE X-NONE

So the question is ‘what would be the maximum value of θ for the given observations? This can be found by maximizing this product using calculus methods, which is not covered in this lesson. 

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[…] Maximum Likelihood Estimation is a procedure used to estimate an unknown parameter of a model. MLE  is based on the Likelihood Function and it works by making an estimate the maximizes the likelihood function.  The likelihood function is simply a function of the unknown parameter, given the observations(or sample values). Therefore, maximum likelihood estimate is the value of the parameter that maximizes the likelihood of getting the the observed data. […]

There are two typos in the blog: 1-> You have used addition sign + instead of multiplication sign * in deriving the likelihood function paragraph 2->In the same paragraph you have written that we have to find maximum theta(parameter) instead we have to find such theta for which the likelihood function gives maximum value.