thesis statements of global warming

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Global Warming Thesis Statement Ideas

Rapidly declining Arctic sea ice offers one topic for a paper on global warming.

Economic Impact of Coastal Erosion

Global warming is a complex problem that often sparks policy debates. When writing about it, stick to the facts and make sure that your thesis statement -- the central assertion of your essay -- is supported by research. Some global warming topics have produced extensive research worldwide and can serve as topical guides in formulating your thesis statement.

Manmade Causes versus Natural Causes

The causes of global warming are complex, including natural and man-made emissions of carbon dioxide and methane. Use your thesis to highlight the difference between natural sources and man-made sources. For example, according to the Environmental Protection Agency, carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere have risen from 280 parts per million in the 18th century to 390 parts per million in 2010. Human activities release more than 30 billion tons of carbon dioxide each year, or 135 times as much as volcanoes. Focus your thesis on this discrepancy, how man-made carbon dioxide sources such as fossil fuel consumption, have eclipsed natural sources of the gas.

Rising Temperatures and Declining Sea Ice

Your thesis statement may focus on the relationship between rising surface temperatures and declining sea ice, specifically ice in the Arctic. For instance, since 1901, sea surface temperatures have risen at an average rate of 0.13 degrees Fahrenheit per decade, with the highest rates of change occurring in the past three decades alone, according to the EPA.

Your thesis may establish the inverse relationship between these rising surface temperatures and the shrinking ice coverage in the Arctic. Arctic sea ice extent in December 2014, for instance, was the ninth lowest in the satellite record. The rate of decline for December ice alone is 3.4 percent per decade, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center.

Effects of Melting Glaciers on Water Supply

Along with sea ice, many of the world’s glaciers are melting due to climate change. Since the 1960s, the U.S. Geological Survey has tracked the mass of two glaciers in Alaska and one in Washington state, all three of which have shrunk considerably in the past 40 years.

Research other mountain ranges and compare the glaciological data. Use your thesis to answer the question of what melting glaciers will mean for populations dependent on the ice flows for their fresh water supply. For example, much of Peru’s population depends on Andean glaciers not only for drinking water but for hydroelectricity.

Effects of Drought on Food Production

While global warming is projected to raise sea levels and flooding in coastal regions, it’s also been credited for changes in weather patterns and extreme drought, according to the EPA. In the arid American Southwest, for example, average annual temperatures have increased about 1.5 degrees Fahrenheit over the past century, leading to decreased snowpack, extreme drought, wildfires and fierce competition for remaining water supplies.

As drought still rages in this region, your thesis can explore the relationship between global warming and agriculture, specifically in California’s Central Valley, which provides produce for much of the country. It’s possible that hotter, longer growing seasons are beneficial to California crops, but that shrinking water supplies threaten the viability of commercial agriculture.

Ocean Acidification and Global Seafood Stocks

Increased carbon dioxide emissions don't just impact our air quality. These emissions also result in increased acidity of our planet's oceans. An immense range of shellfish and other molluscs, such as clams, oysters, crabs, lobsters and more, face immediate population decline due to ocean acidification weakening their calcium carbonate shells.

Your thesis can explore the mechanics of ocean acidification as well as the potential economic impact to the fisheries that rely upon these marine animals for survival. You can also explore the potential ecosystem impact for the predators that feed upon these animals.

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U.S. Environmental Protection Agency: Causes of Climate Change
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency: Climate Change Indicators in the United States
National Snow and Ice Data Center: Artic Sea Ice News and Analysis
U.S. Geological Survey: 3-Glacier Mass Balance Summary
National Geographic: Signs from Earth: The Big Thaw
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency: Climate Impacts in the Southwest
Alaska Public Media: Ocean Acidification

About the Author

Scott Neuffer is an award-winning journalist and writer who lives in Nevada. He holds a bachelor's degree in English and spent five years as an education and business reporter for Sierra Nevada Media Group. His first collection of short stories, "Scars of the New Order," was published in 2014.

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Global Warming Thesis Statement Topics & Guide On How To Write

Global warming has increased globally over the last six years. With the melting of the ice rocks at the arctic and Antarctic poles, there is a need to worry. The frequent fires at the Amazon forest have also been witnessed in recent years. It is therefore impossible to miss a global warming thesis in light of all these developments.

What Is Global Warming?

It is a phenomenon of climate change characterized by a general increase in the earth’s average temperatures. These developments modify weather balances and ecosystems for a long time. Global warming continues to be the greatest challenge of the 21st century with the industrial and technological innovations taking place.

The impacts of global warming are adverse, and that is why it is a global pandemic.

How To Write a Thesis About Global Warming

A paper on global warming can be said to be one of the cheapest to write. The backing for this statement is the extensive research in this area. However, some students still have difficulties writing a climate change thesis.

So, what is a thesis statement for global warming?

It is found in the introduction section of the essay or research paper. A research paper has three parts:

Introduction

Therefore, the thesis statement on global warming falls in the first section, and it expresses the main idea of your paper or essay. An impressive thesis statement for global warming has to meet the criteria highlighted below:

It must be specific
It should summarize what you intend to cover in your paper
It should highlight the scope of your study

The global warming thesis statement research paper appears in the last line of your paper’s first paragraph.

What Constitutes A Strong Global Warming Thesis Statement?

When writing a thesis on climate change, interrogate the following questions:

Does it answer the question? – Helps you remain focused on the question Is my position on the topic debatable? – Are there opposing ideas to your thesis statement? Have I specified my stance well enough? – Does it address a specific issue? Does it pass the ‘so what’ question? – Ensure that it clarifies any penitent issue at hand Do I have enough evidence to back up my thesis statement? Does it answer the ‘how and why’ question?

Now that global warming is a large field with subsequent segments, ensure that you plan on what you specifically intend to cover beforehand. Your thesis statement will dictate the paper’s direction; therefore, make it as precise and manageable as possible.

Formula For Writing A Climate Change Thesis Statement

Most students prefer a template to have a good starting point for their thesis statement. Below are is a template you can use when thinking of writing a global warming thesis statement.

“Global warming is a leading cause of health-related problems.”

From the example above, you can note that we have mentioned the issue at hand (global warming) and the paper’s direction (health effects of global warming). Since global warming affects many spheres of life, it is necessary to narrow down one in your thesis statement.

A climate change thesis will require you to identify a specific area of implication, which you will tackle in the rest of your paper. Narrowing it down will help you major in one area and prevent you from wandering about in your paper.

Expert Tips For A Global Warming Thesis Statement

On top of considering the format of your thesis statement, there are other critical considerations for a thesis statement on global warming:

Position: It comes at the beginning of your essay paper. Its strategic position is in line with its purpose – to tell the reader what you will discuss.
Length: Depending on the number of arguments you will cover, a thesis statement can either be long or short. In most cases, a thesis statement is one sentence long that is concise. The number of words is approximately 30 to 40 words long.
Strength: Have an arguable statement for your thesis on climate change. It should not be apparent, or one that everyone agrees is true.

Below are global warming thesis statement ideas that you can find motivation from for your global warming thesis:

Global warming is adversely affecting marine life, especially in the polar regions
An analysis of climate change reveals one challenge facing Mother Nature: Depletion of natural resources
High temperatures typically characterize global warming
Global warming should be treated as a global pandemic to increase its awareness globally.
To eradicate global warming, experts have to adhere to strict scientific ethics and principles.

Identify the purpose of your paper first (to persuade, inform, or argue) and then make it evident in the thesis statement .

Let us explore some global warming topics for the research paper:

Global Warming Research Paper Topics

The role of UNEP is creating awareness and sensitization towards the adverse effects of global warming
How industrialization is slowly depleting the ozone layer
Increase in greenhouse gases: Are human activities the leading cause of the rising temperature levels?
How exploitation of forests is leading to climate change
The adverse effects of fossil fuels on climate change: A case study of gas, oil, and burning charcoal

Anti-Global Warming Thesis Topics

How fungicides and pesticides are affecting the safety and portability of water
The role of reliable waste management Programmes in reducing garbage levels
Why the use of explosives in mining should be prohibited: An analysis of cyanide and mercury effects.
Why stiffer penalties and fines should be imposed on offenders of climate change
The need to create a multi-agency body specifically for monitoring the global warming situation and providing recommendations

You can consider the topics above to write on or further your research on global warming as a world pandemic.

By the way, we not only provide good topics for your research paper. We provide professional thesis writing help for those seeking a paper from scratch. All you need to do is click the ‘write my thesis’ tab and get your fully furnished paper in no time!

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Climate change is an urgent global issue, characterized by rising temperatures, melting glaciers, and extreme weather events. Writing a thesis on this topic requires a clear and concise statement that guides the reader through the significance, focus, and scope of your study. In this piece, we will explore various examples of good and bad thesis statements related to climate change to guide students in crafting compelling research proposals.

Good Examples

Focused Approach: “This thesis will analyze the impact of climate change on the intensity and frequency of hurricanes, using data from the last three decades.” Lack of Focus: “Climate change affects weather patterns.”

The good statement is specific, indicating a focus on hurricanes and providing a time frame. In contrast, the bad statement is too vague, covering a broad topic without any specific angle.

Clear Stance: “Implementing carbon taxes is an effective strategy for governments to incentivize companies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.” Not So Clear: “Carbon taxes might be good for the environment.”

The good statement takes a clear position in favor of carbon taxes, while the bad statement is indecisive, not providing a clear standpoint.

Researchable and Measurable: “The thesis explores the correlation between the rise in global temperatures and the increase in the extinction rates of North American mammal species.” Dull: “Global warming is harmful to animals.”

The good statement is researchable and measurable, with clear variables and a focused geographic location, while the bad statement is generic and lacks specificity.

Bad Examples

Overly Broad: “Climate change is a global problem that needs to be addressed.”

This statement, while true, is overly broad and doesn’t propose a specific area of focus, making it inadequate for guiding a research study.

Lack of Clear Argument: “Climate change has some negative and positive effects.”

This statement doesn’t take a clear stance or highlight specific effects, making it weak and uninformative.

Unoriginal and Unengaging: “Climate change is real.”

While the statement is factual, it doesn’t present an original argument or engage the reader with a specific area of climate change research.

Crafting a compelling thesis statement on climate change is crucial for directing your research and presenting a clear, focused, and arguable position. A good thesis statement should be specific, take a clear stance, and be researchable and measurable. Avoid overly broad, unclear, unoriginal, or unengaging statements that do not provide clear direction or focus for your research. Utilizing the examples provided, students can navigate the intricate process of developing thesis statements that are not only academically rigorous but also intriguing and relevant to the pressing issue of climate change.

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Argumentative Essay Writing

Argumentative Essay About Climate Change

Make Your Case: A Guide to Writing an Argumentative Essay on Climate Change

Published on: Mar 2, 2023

Last updated on: Jan 31, 2024

What is an Argumentative Essay about Climate Change?

The main focus will be on trying to prove that global warming is caused by human activities. Your goal should be to convince your readers that human activity is causing climate change.

To achieve this, you will need to use a variety of research methods to collect data on the topic. You need to make an argument as to why climate change needs to be taken more seriously.

Argumentative Essay Outline about Climate Change

An argumentative essay about climate change requires a student to take an opinionated stance on the subject.

The outline of your paper should include the following sections:

Argumentative Essay About Climate Change Introduction

The first step is to introduce the topic and provide an overview of the main points you will cover in the essay.

This should include a brief description of what climate change is. Furthermore, it should include current research on how humans are contributing to global warming.

An example is:

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Thesis Statement For Climate Change Argumentative Essay

The thesis statement should be a clear and concise description of your opinion on the topic. It should be established early in the essay and reiterated throughout.

For example, an argumentative essay about climate change could have a thesis statement such as:

âclimate change is caused by human activity and can be addressed through policy solutions that reduce greenhouse gas emissions and promote cleaner energy sourcesâ.

Climate Change Argumentative Essay Conclusion

The conclusion should restate your thesis statement and summarize the main points of the essay.

It should also provide a call to action, encouraging readers to take steps toward addressing climate change.

For example,

Climate change is an urgent issue that must be addressed now if we are to avoid catastrophic consequences in the future. We must take action to reduce our emissions and transition to cleaner energy sources. It is up to us as citizens to demand policy solutions from our governments that will ensure a safe and sustainable future.

How To Write An Argumentative Essay On Climate Change

Writing an argumentative essay about climate change requires a student to take an opinionated stance on the subject.

Following are the steps to follow for writing an argumentative essay about climate change

Do Your Research

The first step is researching the topic and collecting evidence to back up your argument.

You should look at scientific research, articles, and data on climate change as well as current policy solutions.

Pick A Catchy Title

Once you have gathered your evidence, it is time to pick a title for your essay. It should be specific and concise.

Outline Your Essay

After selecting a title, create an outline of the main points you will include in the essay.

This should include an introduction, body paragraphs that provide evidence for your argument, and a conclusion.

Compose Your Essay

Finally, begin writing your essay. Start with an introduction that provides a brief overview of the main points you will cover and includes your thesis statement.

Then move on to the body paragraphs, providing evidence to back up your argument.

Finally, conclude the essay by restating your thesis statement and summarizing the main points.

Proofread and Revise

Once you have finished writing the essay, it is important to proofread and revise your work.

Check for any spelling or grammatical errors, and make sure the argument is clear and logical.

Finally, consider having someone else read over the essay for a fresh perspective.

By following these steps, you can create an effective argumentative essay on climate change. Good luck!

Examples Of Argumentative Essays About Climate Change

Climate Change is real and happening right now. It is one of the most urgent environmental issues that we face today.

Argumentative essays about this topic can help raise awareness that we need to protect our planet.

Below you will find some examples of argumentative essays on climate change written by CollegeEssay.orgâs expert essay writers.

Argumentative Essay About Climate Change And Global Warming

Persuasive Essay About Climate Change

Argumentative Essay About Climate Change In The Philippines

Argumentative Essay About Climate Change Caused By Humans

Geography Argumentative Essay About Climate Change

Check our extensive blog on argumentative essay examples to ace your next essay!

Good Argumentative Essay Topics About Climate Change

Choosing a great topic is essential to help your readers understand and engage with the issue.

Here are some suggestions:

Should governments fund projects that will reduce the effects of climate change?
Is it too late to stop global warming and climate change?
Are international treaties effective in reducing carbon dioxide emissions?
What are the economic implications of climate change?
Should renewable energy be mandated as a priority over traditional fossil fuels?
How can individuals help reduce their carbon footprint and fight climate change?
Are regulations on industry enough to reduce global warming and climate change?
Could geoengineering be used to mitigate climate change?
What are the social and political effects of global warming and climate change?
Should companies be held accountable for their contribution to climate change?

Check our comprehensive blog on argumentative essay topics to get more topic ideas!

We hope these topics and resources help you write a great argumentative essay about climate change.

Now that you know how to write an argumentative essay about climate change, itâs time to put your skills to the test.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What is a good introduction to climate change.

An introduction to a climate change essay can include a short description of why the topic is important and/or relevant.

It can also provide an overview of what will be discussed in the body of the essay.

The introduction should conclude with a clear, focused thesis statement that outlines the main argument in your essay.

What is a good thesis statement for climate change?

A good thesis statement for a climate change essay should state the main point or argument you will make in your essay.

You could argue that “The science behind climate change is irrefutable and must be addressed by governments, businesses, and individuals.”

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The Role of Humans in Causing Global Warming

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Hypothesis:.

Research: Humans do have a significant effect on the global warming process.

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Bibliography.

Chang, J. (2015). Impact of climate change and human activities on runoff in the Weihe River Basin. Retrieved from science direct: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S104061821400192X
Cook, J. (2016, April 13). Consensus on consensus: a synthesis of consensus estimates on human-caused global warming. Retrieved from iop science: https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/11/4/048002
Haustein, K. (2017, November 13). A real-time Global Warming Index. Retrieved from nature: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-017-14828-5
Nagelkerken, L., & Connell, S. (2015, October 27). Global alteration of ocean ecosystem functioning due to increasing human CO2 emissions. Retrieved from NCBI: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26460052

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The Center for Global Studies

Climate change argumentation.

Carmen Vanderhoof, Curriculum and Instruction, College of Education, Penn State

Carmen Vanderhoof is a doctoral candidate in Science Education at Penn State. Her research employs multimodal discourse analysis of elementary students engaged in a collaborative engineering design challenge in order to examine students’ decision-making practices. Prior to resuming graduate studies, she was a secondary science teacher and conducted molecular biology research.

Subject(s): Earth Science
Topic: Climate Change and Sustainability
Grade/Level: 9-12 (can be adapted to grades 6-8)
Objectives: Students will be able to write a scientific argument using evidence and reasoning to support claims. Students will also be able to reflect on the weaknesses in their own arguments in order to improve their argument and then respond to other arguments.
Suggested Time Allotment: 4-5 hours (extra time for extension)

This lesson is derived from Dr. Peter Buckland’s sustainability presentation for the Center for Global Studies . Dr. Peter Buckland, a Penn State alumnus, is a postdoctoral fellow for the Sustainability Institute. He has drawn together many resources for teaching about climate change, sustainability, and other environmental issues.

While there are many resources for teaching about climate change and sustainability, it may be tough to figure out where to start. There are massive amounts of data available to the general public and students need help searching for good sources of evidence. Prior to launching into a search, it would be worthwhile figuring out what the students already know about climate change, where they learned it, and how they feel about efforts to reduce our carbon footprint. There are many options for eliciting prior knowledge, including taking online quizzes, whole-class discussion, or drawing concept maps. For this initial step, it is important that students feel comfortable to share, without engaging in disagreements. The main idea is to increase students’ understanding about global warming, rather than focus on the potential controversial nature of this topic.

A major goal of this unit is to engage students in co-constructing evidence-based explanations through individual writing, sharing, re-writing, group discussion, and whole group reflection. The argumentation format presented here contains claims supported by evidence and reasoning (Claims Evidence Reasoning – CER). Argumentation in this sense is different from how the word “argument” is used in everyday language. Argumentation is a collaborative process towards an end goal, rather than a competition to win (Duschl & Osborne, 2002). Scientific argumentation is the process of negotiating and communicating findings through a series of claims supported by evidence from various sources along with a rationale or reasoning linking the claim with the evidence. For students, making the link between claim and evidence can be the most difficult part of the process.

Where does the evidence come from?

Evidence and data are often used synonymously, but there is a difference. Evidence is “the representation of data in a form that undergirds an argument that works to answer the original question” (Hand et al., 2009, p. 129). This explains why even though scientists may use the same data to draw explanations from, the final product may take different forms depending on which parts of the data were used and how. For example, in a court case experts from opposing sides may use the same data to persuade the jury to reach different conclusions. Another way to explain this distinction to students is “the story built from the data that leads to a claim is the evidence” (Hand et al., 2009, p. 129). Evidence can come from many sources – results from controlled experiments, measurements, books, articles, websites, personal observations, etc. It is important to discuss with students the issue of the source’s reliability and accuracy. When using data freely available online, ask yourself: Who conducted the study? Who funded the research? Where was it published or presented?

What is a claim and how do I find it?

A scientific claim is a statement that answers a question or an inference based on information, rather than just personal opinion.

How can I connect the claim(s) with the evidence?

That’s where the justification or reasoning comes in. This portion of the argument explains why the evidence is relevant to the claim or how the evidence supports the claim.

Implementation

Learning context and connecting to state standards.

This interdisciplinary unit can be used in an earth science class or adapted to environmental science, chemistry, or physics. The key to adapting the lesson is guiding students to sources of data that fit the discipline they are studying.

For earth science , students can explain the difference between climate and weather, describe the factors associated with global climate change, and explore a variety of data sources to draw their evidence from. Pennsylvania Academic Standards for earth and space science (secondary): 3.3.12.A1, 3.3.12.A6, 3.3.10.A7.

For environmental science , students can analyze the costs and benefits of pollution control measures. Pennsylvania Academic Standards for Environment and Ecology (secondary): 4.5.12.C.

For chemistry and physics , students can explain the function of greenhouse gases, construct a model of the greenhouse effect, and model energy flow through the atmosphere. Pennsylvania Academic Standards for Physical Sciences (secondary): 3.2.10.B6.

New Generation Science Standards (NGSS) Connections

Human impacts and global climate change are directly addressed in the NGSS. Disciplinary Core Ideas (DCI): HS-ESS3-3, HS-ESS3-4, HS-ESS3-5, HS-ESS3-6.

Lesson 1: Introduction to climate change

What are greenhouse gases and the greenhouse effect? (sample answer: greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide and methane contribute to overall heating of the atmosphere; these gases trap heat just like the glass in a greenhouse or in a car)
What is the difference between weather and climate? (sample answer: weather is the daily temperature and precipitation measurements, while climate is a much longer pattern over multiple years)

Drawing of the greenhouse effect – as individuals or in pairs, have students look up the greenhouse effect and draw a diagram to represent it; share out with the class

Optional: figure out students’ beliefs about global warming using the Yale Six Americas Survey (students answer a series of questions and at the end they are given one of the following categories: alarmed, concerned, cautious, disengaged, doubtful, dismissive).

Lesson 2: Searching for and evaluating evidence

Compare different data sources and assess their credibility
Temperature
Precipitation
Storm surge
Ask the students to think about what types of claims they can make about climate change using the data they found (Sample claims: human activity is causing global warming or sea-level rise in the next fifty years will affect coastal cities like Amsterdam, Hong Kong, or New Orleans).

Lesson 3: Writing an argument using evidence

Claim – an inference or a statement that answers a question
Evidence – an outside source of information that supports the claim, often drawn from selected data
Reasoning – the justification/support for the claim; what connects the evidence with the claim
Extending arguments – have students exchange papers and notice the strengths of the other arguments they are reading (can do multiple cycles of reading); ask students to go back to their original argument and expand it with more evidence and/or more justification for why the evidence supports the claim
Anticipate Rebuttals – ask students to think and write about any weaknesses in their own argument

Lesson 4: Argumentation discussion

rebuttal – challenges a component of someone’s argument – for example, a challenge to the evidence used in the original argument
counterargument – a whole new argument that challenges the original argument
respect group members and their ideas
wait for group members to finish their turns before speaking
be mindful of your own contributions to the discussion (try not to take over the whole discussion so others can contribute too; conversely, if you didn’t already talk, find a way to bring in a new argument, expand on an existing argument, or challenge another argument)
Debate/discussion – In table groups have students share their arguments and practice rebuttals and counterarguments
Whole-group reflection – ask students to share key points from their discussion

Lesson 5: Argumentation in action case study

Mumbai, india case study.

Rishi is a thirteen year old boy who attends the Gayak Rafi Nagar Urdu Municipal school in Mumbai. There is a massive landfill called Deonar right across from his school. Every day 4,000 tons of waste are piled on top of the existing garbage spanning 132 hectares (roughly half a square mile). Rishi ventures out to the landfill after school to look for materials that he can later trade for a little bit of extra money to help his family. He feels lucky that he gets to go to school during the day; others are not so lucky. One of his friends, Aamir, had to stop going to school and work full time after his dad got injured. They often meet to chat while they dig through the garbage with sticks. Occasionally, they find books in okay shape, which aren’t worth anything in trade, but to them they are valuable.

One day Rishi was out to the market with his mom and saw the sky darken with a heavy smoke that blocked out the sun. They both hurried home and found out there was a state of emergency and the schools closed for two days. It took many days to put out the fire at Deonar. He heard his dad say that the fire was so bad that it could be seen from space. He wonders what it would be like to see Mumbai from up there. Some days he wishes the government would close down Deonar and clean it up. Other days he wonders what would happen to all the people that depend on it to live if the city shuts down Deonar.

Mumbai is one of the coastal cities that are considered vulnerable with increasing global temperature and sea level rise. The urban poor are most affected by climate change. Their shelter could be wiped out by a tropical storm and rebuilding would be very difficult.

Write a letter to a public official who may be able to influence policy in Mumbai.

What would you recommend they do? Should they close Deonar? What can they do to reduce air pollution in the city and prepare for possible storms? Remember to use evidence in your argument.

If students want to read the articles that inspired the case study direct them to: http://unhabitat.org/urban-themes/climate-change/

http://www.bloomberg.com/slideshow/2012-07-06/top-20-cities-with-billions-at-risk-from-climate-change.html#slide16

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-26/smelly-dumps-drive-away-affordable-homes-in-land-starved-mumbai

http://www.cnn.com/2016/02/05/asia/mumbai-giant-garbage-dump-fire/

Resources:

Lines of Evidence video from the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine http://nas-sites.org/americasclimatechoices/videos-multimedia/climate-change-lines-of-evidence-videos/
Climate Literacy and Energy Awareness Network (CLEAN)
Climate maps from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Sources of data from NASA
Explore the original source of the Proceedings of the National Academies of Sciences (PNAS) study

Differentiated Instruction

For visual learners – use diagrams, encourage students to map out their arguments prior to writing them
For auditory learners – use the lines of evidence video
For ESL students – provide them with a variety of greenhouse gases diagrams, allow for a more flexible argument format and focus on general meaning-making – ex. using arrows to connect their sources of evidence to claims
For advanced learners – ask them to search through larger data sets and make comparisons between data from different sources; they can also research environmental policies and why they stalled out in congress
For learners that need more support – print out excerpts from articles; pinpoint the main ideas to help with the research; help students connect their evidence with their claims; consider allowing students to work in pairs to accomplish the writing task

Argument write-up – check that students’ arguments contain claims supported by evidence and reasoning and that they thought about possible weaknesses in their own arguments.

Case study letter – check that students included evidence in their letter.

References:

Duschl, R. A., & Osborne, J. (2002). Supporting and promoting argumentation discourse in science education.

Hand, B. et al. (2009) Negotiating Science: The Critical Role of Argumentation in Student Inquiry. Portsmouth, NH: Heinemann.

McNeill, K. L., & Krajcik, J. (2012). Claim, evidence and reasoning: Supporting grade 5 – 8 students in constructing scientiﬁc explanations. New York, NY: Pearson Allyn & Bacon.

Sawyer, R. K. (Ed.). (2014). The Cambridge handbook of the learning sciences. New York, NY: Cambridge University Press.

https://www3.epa.gov/climatechange/kids/basics/today/greenhouse-gases.html

http://unhabitat.org/urban-themes/climate-change/

There is unequivocal evidence that Earth is warming at an unprecedented rate. Human activity is the principal cause.

While Earth’s climate has changed throughout its history , the current warming is happening at a rate not seen in the past 10,000 years.
According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ( IPCC ), "Since systematic scientific assessments began in the 1970s, the influence of human activity on the warming of the climate system has evolved from theory to established fact." 1
Scientific information taken from natural sources (such as ice cores, rocks, and tree rings) and from modern equipment (like satellites and instruments) all show the signs of a changing climate.
From global temperature rise to melting ice sheets, the evidence of a warming planet abounds.

The rate of change since the mid-20th century is unprecedented over millennia.

Earth's climate has changed throughout history. Just in the last 800,000 years, there have been eight cycles of ice ages and warmer periods, with the end of the last ice age about 11,700 years ago marking the beginning of the modern climate era — and of human civilization. Most of these climate changes are attributed to very small variations in Earth’s orbit that change the amount of solar energy our planet receives.

The current warming trend is different because it is clearly the result of human activities since the mid-1800s, and is proceeding at a rate not seen over many recent millennia. 1 It is undeniable that human activities have produced the atmospheric gases that have trapped more of the Sun’s energy in the Earth system. This extra energy has warmed the atmosphere, ocean, and land, and widespread and rapid changes in the atmosphere, ocean, cryosphere, and biosphere have occurred.

Earth-orbiting satellites and new technologies have helped scientists see the big picture, collecting many different types of information about our planet and its climate all over the world. These data, collected over many years, reveal the signs and patterns of a changing climate.

Scientists demonstrated the heat-trapping nature of carbon dioxide and other gases in the mid-19th century. 2 Many of the science instruments NASA uses to study our climate focus on how these gases affect the movement of infrared radiation through the atmosphere. From the measured impacts of increases in these gases, there is no question that increased greenhouse gas levels warm Earth in response.

Scientific evidence for warming of the climate system is unequivocal.

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Ice cores drawn from Greenland, Antarctica, and tropical mountain glaciers show that Earth’s climate responds to changes in greenhouse gas levels. Ancient evidence can also be found in tree rings, ocean sediments, coral reefs, and layers of sedimentary rocks. This ancient, or paleoclimate, evidence reveals that current warming is occurring roughly 10 times faster than the average rate of warming after an ice age. Carbon dioxide from human activities is increasing about 250 times faster than it did from natural sources after the last Ice Age. 3

The Evidence for Rapid Climate Change Is Compelling:

Global Temperature Is Rising

The planet's average surface temperature has risen about 2 degrees Fahrenheit (1 degrees Celsius) since the late 19th century, a change driven largely by increased carbon dioxide emissions into the atmosphere and other human activities. 4 Most of the warming occurred in the past 40 years, with the seven most recent years being the warmest. The years 2016 and 2020 are tied for the warmest year on record. 5 Image credit: Ashwin Kumar, Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 2.0 Generic.

Colonies of “blade fire coral” that have lost their symbiotic algae, or “bleached,” on a reef off of Islamorada, Florida.

The Ocean Is Getting Warmer

The ocean has absorbed much of this increased heat, with the top 100 meters (about 328 feet) of ocean showing warming of 0.67 degrees Fahrenheit (0.33 degrees Celsius) since 1969. 6 Earth stores 90% of the extra energy in the ocean. Image credit: Kelsey Roberts/USGS

The Ice Sheets Are Shrinking

The Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets have decreased in mass. Data from NASA's Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment show Greenland lost an average of 279 billion tons of ice per year between 1993 and 2019, while Antarctica lost about 148 billion tons of ice per year. 7 Image: The Antarctic Peninsula, Credit: NASA

Glaciers Are Retreating

Glaciers are retreating almost everywhere around the world — including in the Alps, Himalayas, Andes, Rockies, Alaska, and Africa. 8 Image: Miles Glacier, Alaska Image credit: NASA

Snow Cover Is Decreasing

Satellite observations reveal that the amount of spring snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere has decreased over the past five decades and the snow is melting earlier. 9 Image credit: NASA/JPL-Caltech

Sea Level Is Rising

Global sea level rose about 8 inches (20 centimeters) in the last century. The rate in the last two decades, however, is nearly double that of the last century and accelerating slightly every year. 10 Image credit: U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Norfolk District

Arctic Sea Ice Is Declining

Both the extent and thickness of Arctic sea ice has declined rapidly over the last several decades. 11 Credit: NASA's Scientific Visualization Studio

Extreme Events Are Increasing in Frequency

The number of record high temperature events in the United States has been increasing, while the number of record low temperature events has been decreasing, since 1950. The U.S. has also witnessed increasing numbers of intense rainfall events. 12 Image credit: Régine Fabri, CC BY-SA 4.0 , via Wikimedia Commons

Ocean Acidification Is Increasing

Since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution, the acidity of surface ocean waters has increased by about 30%. 13 , 14 This increase is due to humans emitting more carbon dioxide into the atmosphere and hence more being absorbed into the ocean. The ocean has absorbed between 20% and 30% of total anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions in recent decades (7.2 to 10.8 billion metric tons per year). 1 5 , 16 Image credit: NOAA

1. IPCC Sixth Assessment Report, WGI, Technical Summary . B.D. Santer et.al., “A search for human influences on the thermal structure of the atmosphere.” Nature 382 (04 July 1996): 39-46. https://doi.org/10.1038/382039a0. Gabriele C. Hegerl et al., “Detecting Greenhouse-Gas-Induced Climate Change with an Optimal Fingerprint Method.” Journal of Climate 9 (October 1996): 2281-2306. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1996)009<2281:DGGICC>2.0.CO;2. V. Ramaswamy, et al., “Anthropogenic and Natural Influences in the Evolution of Lower Stratospheric Cooling.” Science 311 (24 February 2006): 1138-1141. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1122587. B.D. Santer et al., “Contributions of Anthropogenic and Natural Forcing to Recent Tropopause Height Changes.” Science 301 (25 July 2003): 479-483. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1084123. T. Westerhold et al., "An astronomically dated record of Earth’s climate and its predictability over the last 66 million years." Science 369 (11 Sept. 2020): 1383-1387. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1094123

2. In 1824, Joseph Fourier calculated that an Earth-sized planet, at our distance from the Sun, ought to be much colder. He suggested something in the atmosphere must be acting like an insulating blanket. In 1856, Eunice Foote discovered that blanket, showing that carbon dioxide and water vapor in Earth's atmosphere trap escaping infrared (heat) radiation. In the 1860s, physicist John Tyndall recognized Earth's natural greenhouse effect and suggested that slight changes in the atmospheric composition could bring about climatic variations. In 1896, a seminal paper by Swedish scientist Svante Arrhenius first predicted that changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide levels could substantially alter the surface temperature through the greenhouse effect. In 1938, Guy Callendar connected carbon dioxide increases in Earth’s atmosphere to global warming. In 1941, Milutin Milankovic linked ice ages to Earth’s orbital characteristics. Gilbert Plass formulated the Carbon Dioxide Theory of Climate Change in 1956.

3. IPCC Sixth Assessment Report, WG1, Chapter 2 Vostok ice core data; NOAA Mauna Loa CO2 record O. Gaffney, W. Steffen, "The Anthropocene Equation." The Anthropocene Review 4, issue 1 (April 2017): 53-61. https://doi.org/abs/10.1177/2053019616688022.

4. https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/monitoring https://crudata.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/temperature/ http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp

5. https://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/news/20170118/

6. S. Levitus, J. Antonov, T. Boyer, O Baranova, H. Garcia, R. Locarnini, A. Mishonov, J. Reagan, D. Seidov, E. Yarosh, M. Zweng, " NCEI ocean heat content, temperature anomalies, salinity anomalies, thermosteric sea level anomalies, halosteric sea level anomalies, and total steric sea level anomalies from 1955 to present calculated from in situ oceanographic subsurface profile data (NCEI Accession 0164586), Version 4.4. (2017) NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information. https://www.nodc.noaa.gov/OC5/3M_HEAT_CONTENT/index3.html K. von Schuckmann, L. Cheng, L,. D. Palmer, J. Hansen, C. Tassone, V. Aich, S. Adusumilli, H. Beltrami, H., T. Boyer, F. Cuesta-Valero, D. Desbruyeres, C. Domingues, A. Garcia-Garcia, P. Gentine, J. Gilson, M. Gorfer, L. Haimberger, M. Ishii, M., G. Johnson, R. Killick, B. King, G. Kirchengast, N. Kolodziejczyk, J. Lyman, B. Marzeion, M. Mayer, M. Monier, D. Monselesan, S. Purkey, D. Roemmich, A. Schweiger, S. Seneviratne, A. Shepherd, D. Slater, A. Steiner, F. Straneo, M.L. Timmermans, S. Wijffels. "Heat stored in the Earth system: where does the energy go?" Earth System Science Data 12, Issue 3 (07 September 2020): 2013-2041. https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-2013-2020.

7. I. Velicogna, Yara Mohajerani, A. Geruo, F. Landerer, J. Mouginot, B. Noel, E. Rignot, T. Sutterly, M. van den Broeke, M. Wessem, D. Wiese, "Continuity of Ice Sheet Mass Loss in Greenland and Antarctica From the GRACE and GRACE Follow-On Missions." Geophysical Research Letters 47, Issue 8 (28 April 2020): e2020GL087291. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL087291.

8. National Snow and Ice Data Center World Glacier Monitoring Service

9. National Snow and Ice Data Center D.A. Robinson, D. K. Hall, and T. L. Mote, "MEaSUREs Northern Hemisphere Terrestrial Snow Cover Extent Daily 25km EASE-Grid 2.0, Version 1 (2017). Boulder, Colorado USA. NASA National Snow and Ice Data Center Distributed Active Archive Center. doi: https://doi.org/10.5067/MEASURES/CRYOSPHERE/nsidc-0530.001 . http://nsidc.org/cryosphere/sotc/snow_extent.html Rutgers University Global Snow Lab. Data History

10. R.S. Nerem, B.D. Beckley, J. T. Fasullo, B.D. Hamlington, D. Masters, and G.T. Mitchum, "Climate-change–driven accelerated sea-level rise detected in the altimeter era." PNAS 15, no. 9 (12 Feb. 2018): 2022-2025. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1717312115.

11. https://nsidc.org/cryosphere/sotc/sea_ice.html Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS, Zhang and Rothrock, 2003) http://psc.apl.washington.edu/research/projects/arctic-sea-ice-volume-anomaly/ http://psc.apl.uw.edu/research/projects/projections-of-an-ice-diminished-arctic-ocean/

12. USGCRP, 2017: Climate Science Special Report: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume I [Wuebbles, D.J., D.W. Fahey, K.A. Hibbard, D.J. Dokken, B.C. Stewart, and T.K. Maycock (eds.)]. U.S. Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC, USA, 470 pp, https://doi.org/10.7930/j0j964j6 .

13. http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/co2/story/What+is+Ocean+Acidification%3F

14. http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/co2/story/Ocean+Acidification

15. C.L. Sabine, et al., “The Oceanic Sink for Anthropogenic CO2.” Science 305 (16 July 2004): 367-371. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1097403.

16. Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate , Technical Summary, Chapter TS.5, Changing Ocean, Marine Ecosystems, and Dependent Communities, Section 5.2.2.3. https://www.ipcc.ch/srocc/chapter/technical-summary/

Header image shows clouds imitating mountains as the sun sets after midnight as seen from Denali's backcountry Unit 13 on June 14, 2019. Credit: NPS/Emily Mesner Image credit in list of evidence: Ashwin Kumar, Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 2.0 Generic.

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Earth Science in Action

Earth Science Data

The sum of Earth's plants, on land and in the ocean, changes slightly from year to year as weather patterns shift.

Facts About Earth

What evidence exists that Earth is warming and that humans are the main cause?

We know the world is warming because people have been recording daily high and low temperatures at thousands of weather stations worldwide, over land and ocean, for many decades and, in some locations, for more than a century. When different teams of climate scientists in different agencies (e.g., NOAA and NASA) and in other countries (e.g., the U.K.’s Hadley Centre) average these data together, they all find essentially the same result: Earth’s average surface temperature has risen by about 1.8°F (1.0°C) since 1880.

Bar graph of global temperature anomalies with an overlay of a line graph of atmospheric carbon dioxide from 1850-2023

( bar chart ) Yearly temperature compared to the twentieth-century average from 1850–2023. Red bars mean warmer-than-average years; blue bars mean colder-than-average years. (line graph) Atmospheric carbon dioxide amounts: 1850-1958 from IAC , 1959-2023 from NOAA Global Monitoring Lab . NOAA Climate.gov graph, adapted from original by Dr. Howard Diamond (NOAA ARL).

In addition to our surface station data, we have many different lines of evidence that Earth is warming ( learn more ). Birds are migrating earlier, and their migration patterns are changing. Lobsters and other marine species are moving north. Plants are blooming earlier in the spring. Mountain glaciers are melting worldwide, and snow cover is declining in the Northern Hemisphere (Learn more here and here ). Greenland’s ice sheet—which holds about 8 percent of Earth’s fresh water—is melting at an accelerating rate ( learn more ). Mean global sea level is rising ( learn more ). Arctic sea ice is declining rapidly in both thickness and extent ( learn more ).

Aerial photo of glacier front with a graph overlay of Greenland ice mass over time

The Greenland Ice Sheet lost mass again in 2020, but not as much as it did 2019. Adapted from the 2020 Arctic Report Card, this graph tracks Greenland mass loss measured by NASA's GRACE satellite missions since 2002. The background photo shows a glacier calving front in western Greenland, captured from an airplane during a NASA Operation IceBridge field campaign. Full story.

We know this warming is largely caused by human activities because the key role that carbon dioxide plays in maintaining Earth’s natural greenhouse effect has been understood since the mid-1800s. Unless it is offset by some equally large cooling influence, more atmospheric carbon dioxide will lead to warmer surface temperatures. Since 1800, the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has increased from about 280 parts per million to 410 ppm in 2019. We know from both its rapid increase and its isotopic “fingerprint” that the source of this new carbon dioxide is fossil fuels, and not natural sources like forest fires, volcanoes, or outgassing from the ocean.

DIgital image of a painting of a fire burning in a coal pile in a small village

Philip James de Loutherbourg's 1801 painting, Coalbrookdale by Night , came to symbolize the start of the Industrial Revolution, when humans began to harness the power of fossil fuels—and to contribute significantly to Earth's atmospheric greenhouse gas composition. Image from Wikipedia .

Finally, no other known climate influences have changed enough to account for the observed warming trend. Taken together, these and other lines of evidence point squarely to human activities as the cause of recent global warming.

USGCRP (2017). Climate Science Special Report: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume 1 [Wuebbles, D.J., D.W. Fahey, K.A. Hibbard, D.J. Dokken, B.C. Stewart, and T.K. Maycock (eds.)]. U.S. Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC, USA, 470 pp, doi: 10.7930/J0J964J6 .

National Fish, Wildlife, and Plants Climate Adaptation Partnership (2012): National Fish, Wildlife, and Plants Climate Adaptation Strategy . Association of Fish and Wildlife Agencies, Council on Environmental Quality, Great Lakes Indian Fish and Wildlife Commission, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. Washington, D.C. DOI: 10.3996/082012-FWSReport-1

IPCC (2019). Summary for Policymakers. In: IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate. [H.-O. Pörtner, D.C. Roberts, V. Masson-Delmotte, P. Zhai, M. Tignor, E. Poloczanska, K. Mintenbeck, A. Alegría, M. Nicolai, A. Okem, J. Petzold, B. Rama, N.M. Weyer (eds.)]. In press.

NASA JPL: "Consensus: 97% of climate scientists agree." Global Climate Change . A website at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory (climate.nasa.gov/scientific-consensus). (Accessed July 2013.)

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Actually Martin, the temperature now is higher than at any time in the last 650,000 years.

That 'medieval warm period' and 'little ice age' graphic (below) is pretty convincing all right - anyone can tell that the medieval hump is higher than the temperature marked 'now'.

The only problem is that the "Now" that's shown on the graph isn't now as in 2007, it seems to be pointing at somewhere around the late 80s. Worse still, a thick black line is obscuring whatever happened temperature-wise between then and the mid 70s.

If the last 30 years' data were included in the graph, you'd see that thick blue line shoot abruptly skywards - like it does in the IPCC graph below - because northern hemisphere temperatures in the last two decades were way above those during Europe's Medieval Warm Period. In fact, they're way above anything in the last 650,000 years.

(You can't really blame Durkin for wanting a simpler graphic than this IPCC one - it looks like something from the Richter Office Christmas party. But when you've got data that shows such variability, choosing the bit that fits your argument and omitting everything else is just plain wrong.)

... and increased carbon dioxide does cause global warming.

Durkin's experts argue that man-made CO2 can't be causing global warming because if it did, we should have seen an increase in temperature throughout the 20th century, but global temperature actually dropped after World War 2. And they've got a graph to prove it.

This is a fair assumption - it's a question that was asked by scientists years ago. And answered by them too.

The reason that temperatures dropped in the northern hemisphere when our post-war uber-industrial era kicked in was because all the pollution we were churning out (sulphates in particular) did a great job of reflecting sunlight back out to space - the 'global dimming' phenomenon. That offset the warming you would have expected if CO2 levels alone caused climate.

When acid rain - caused by sulphur pollution - became an issue in the 70s-80s, and emissions-reducing policies led to cuts in the pollutants that had been masking the warming, the temperature start to climb.

�s graph of Arctic Temperature last century (above) shows a steep linear decline from the late 30s to the mid 60s. Which is interesting if you�re a polar bear. But in terms of global temperature, the situation during the 'post war economic boom� is nowhere near as steep or as linear according to NASA�s Goddard Institute (below).

Solar Activity is real, but it's got next to no impact on global temperature

There have been studies claiming a strong link between solar radiation changes and global warming, but they haven't been published in what you'd call reputable climate journals. Articles pointing out methodological flaws in these solar activity studies, however, have been.

The 'Temp & Solar Activity' graphs in The Swindle certainly look like they show a clear connection between the Sun's activity and the Earth's temperature, but they're not without their problems.

, purportedly from an article by Friis-Christensen & Svensmark. Presumably temperature is in blue, and sunspot cycle length in red.

Forgetting for a moment that the unit of solar activity used (sunspot cycle length) isn't directly related to the Sun's temperature-causing effect, and that the temperature figures used are 30 years out of date, there's the fact that the graph - and the film - completely ignores the period from 1975 onwards.

And while a lot of what went on in the 80s & 90s doesn't bear remembering, this is the period when the best data on solar activity & changes is available. It's also the period where other studies have shown little or no relationship between solar radiation and global temperature.

In fact, just one day before Durkin's film aired in Australia another report from UK and Swiss researchers says solar variability could not explain recent warming. Nail for a coffin, anyone?

Oh yeah, and climate models do accurately reflect the observed data

The Swindle says climate models' predictions don't match the observed temperatures in the upper atmosphere. Clearly no number of internationally published, peer-reviewed articles contradicting this statement were going to change the minds of the film's experts. Which is funny, because at least one of these studies was written by one of them.

John Christy (the guy with the weather balloons and determined jogging style) was one of the lead authors on the 2006 US Climate Change Science Programme's review of temperature trends in the lower atmosphere - which states that there is no conflict between observed changes and the results of the climate models. He may have mentioned this when being interviewed for the film but, not surprisingly, it didn't make the final cut.

About that Thatcher plot ...

The claim from a number of Durkin's guests that funding dollars have poured into studies on global warming ever since Margaret Thatcher wanted to cut the UK's reliance on coal and the Middle-East is interesting. Their assertion that the funding has affected the outcome of the studies is very serious - but if anyone knows about the impact of funding on the results of studies, it's these guys. A number of the film's experts are well known for being on the receiving end of funds from anti-global warming think tanks and the energy sector.

Out of five I'd give it ...

Balanced? No. Accurate? No. On the right track? Not even close. What this film's really got going for it is an alarming number of variants on the scientist as balding white guy theme, and the fact that it'll make a great teaching tool in documentary-making classes.

But don't take my word for it - watch the film and then, more importantly, watch the panel discussion airing immediately after it. Only then will you be in a position to do what the film's spruikers say - make up your own mind.

If you enjoyed this feature you might like...

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Study Clears Sun of Global Warming : The sun's changing energy levels are not to blame for recent global warming and, if anything, solar variations over the past 20 years should have had a cooling effect, scientists say.

Predicting Climate : As anyone who watches the weather knows, correctly predicting tomorrow's showers can be a tricky business. So how can we accurately talk about climate - the macrocosmic version of weather - in fifty or a hundred years? Heather Catchpole reports. (Published 08/03/2007)

Curbing Climate Change : On May 4, 2007 the UN released a report recommending cuts of 50-85% in global greenhouse gas emissions by mid-century to avoid catastrophic climate change. Heather Catchpole looks at what that means for Australia and seeks a silver lining to the coming climate storm. (Published 10/05/2007)

Tipping Point : When climate change scientists talk about a tipping point, it means a point of no return, a level of global warming that irreversibly changes the living conditions on earth. Seemingly tiny increases in temperature are already tipping the balance of survival for Australian wildlife. Frogs in the rainforest, seabirds on the reef, and possums in the snow are the new 'canaries in the coalmine'. (Published 25/05/2007)

Greenhouse calculator : Do you use more than your share of the planet's resources? Find out how much you're contributing to global warming with our greenhouse calculator.

The Road to 2050 : ABC Science Online's series of features on what the science says we should be doing, what the policy makers and industry leaders are doing, and what we ourselves can do to cut greenhouse emissions. (Published 02-03/2007)

What the Bleep are they On About? : In the movie What the Bleep Do We Know? , physicists, biologists and the occasional chiropractor tell us how quantum physics and neuroscience support their views on consciousness. But is reality really in the eye of the quantum observer? Bernie Hobbs checks out the science behind the film's claims. (Published 30/06/2005)

The Great Global Warming Swindle: Misrepresentations of scientific evidence and researchers' interpretations , Bob Ward, 30/3/2007

The Great Global Warming: A Critique , David Jones, Andrew Watkins, Karl Braganza and Michael Coughlan, National Climate Centre, Bureau of Meteorology, 2007

The Great Global Warming Swindle: open letter to Martin Durkin , multiple signatories, 24/05/2007

Published July 12, 2007

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ProQuest Dissertations & Theses & @ Univesity of Cincinnati Access to a body of well over 11,000 University of Cincinnati dissertations and theses, this is the most direct link to the broadest collection of UC dissertations & theses. The time period covers from 1886 to the present. Nearly all of this collection is available in full text in PDF format.
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University of Cincinnati

Climate Change: Evidence and Causes: Update 2020 (2020)

Chapter: conclusion, c onclusion.

This document explains that there are well-understood physical mechanisms by which changes in the amounts of greenhouse gases cause climate changes. It discusses the evidence that the concentrations of these gases in the atmosphere have increased and are still increasing rapidly, that climate change is occurring, and that most of the recent change is almost certainly due to emissions of greenhouse gases caused by human activities. Further climate change is inevitable; if emissions of greenhouse gases continue unabated, future changes will substantially exceed those that have occurred so far. There remains a range of estimates of the magnitude and regional expression of future change, but increases in the extremes of climate that can adversely affect natural ecosystems and human activities and infrastructure are expected.

Citizens and governments can choose among several options (or a mixture of those options) in response to this information: they can change their pattern of energy production and usage in order to limit emissions of greenhouse gases and hence the magnitude of climate changes; they can wait for changes to occur and accept the losses, damage, and suffering that arise; they can adapt to actual and expected changes as much as possible; or they can seek as yet unproven “geoengineering” solutions to counteract some of the climate changes that would otherwise occur. Each of these options has risks, attractions and costs, and what is actually done may be a mixture of these different options. Different nations and communities will vary in their vulnerability and their capacity to adapt. There is an important debate to be had about choices among these options, to decide what is best for each group or nation, and most importantly for the global population as a whole. The options have to be discussed at a global scale because in many cases those communities that are most vulnerable control few of the emissions, either past or future. Our description of the science of climate change, with both its facts and its uncertainties, is offered as a basis to inform that policy debate.

A CKNOWLEDGEMENTS

The following individuals served as the primary writing team for the 2014 and 2020 editions of this document:

Eric Wolff FRS, (UK lead), University of Cambridge
Inez Fung (NAS, US lead), University of California, Berkeley
Brian Hoskins FRS, Grantham Institute for Climate Change
John F.B. Mitchell FRS, UK Met Office
Tim Palmer FRS, University of Oxford
Benjamin Santer (NAS), Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
John Shepherd FRS, University of Southampton
Keith Shine FRS, University of Reading.
Susan Solomon (NAS), Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Kevin Trenberth, National Center for Atmospheric Research
John Walsh, University of Alaska, Fairbanks
Don Wuebbles, University of Illinois

Staff support for the 2020 revision was provided by Richard Walker, Amanda Purcell, Nancy Huddleston, and Michael Hudson. We offer special thanks to Rebecca Lindsey and NOAA Climate.gov for providing data and figure updates.

The following individuals served as reviewers of the 2014 document in accordance with procedures approved by the Royal Society and the National Academy of Sciences:

Richard Alley (NAS), Department of Geosciences, Pennsylvania State University
Alec Broers FRS, Former President of the Royal Academy of Engineering
Harry Elderfield FRS, Department of Earth Sciences, University of Cambridge
Joanna Haigh FRS, Professor of Atmospheric Physics, Imperial College London
Isaac Held (NAS), NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory
John Kutzbach (NAS), Center for Climatic Research, University of Wisconsin
Jerry Meehl, Senior Scientist, National Center for Atmospheric Research
John Pendry FRS, Imperial College London
John Pyle FRS, Department of Chemistry, University of Cambridge
Gavin Schmidt, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center
Emily Shuckburgh, British Antarctic Survey
Gabrielle Walker, Journalist
Andrew Watson FRS, University of East Anglia

The Support for the 2014 Edition was provided by NAS Endowment Funds. We offer sincere thanks to the Ralph J. and Carol M. Cicerone Endowment for NAS Missions for supporting the production of this 2020 Edition.

F OR FURTHER READING

For more detailed discussion of the topics addressed in this document (including references to the underlying original research), see:

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 2019: Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate [ https://www.ipcc.ch/srocc ]
National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine (NASEM), 2019: Negative Emissions Technologies and Reliable Sequestration: A Research Agenda [ https://www.nap.edu/catalog/25259 ]
Royal Society, 2018: Greenhouse gas removal [ https://raeng.org.uk/greenhousegasremoval ]
U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP), 2018: Fourth National Climate Assessment Volume II: Impacts, Risks, and Adaptation in the United States [ https://nca2018.globalchange.gov ]
IPCC, 2018: Global Warming of 1.5°C [ https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15 ]
USGCRP, 2017: Fourth National Climate Assessment Volume I: Climate Science Special Reports [ https://science2017.globalchange.gov ]
NASEM, 2016: Attribution of Extreme Weather Events in the Context of Climate Change [ https://www.nap.edu/catalog/21852 ]
IPCC, 2013: Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) Working Group 1. Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis [ https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg1 ]
NRC, 2013: Abrupt Impacts of Climate Change: Anticipating Surprises [ https://www.nap.edu/catalog/18373 ]
NRC, 2011: Climate Stabilization Targets: Emissions, Concentrations, and Impacts Over Decades to Millennia [ https://www.nap.edu/catalog/12877 ]
Royal Society 2010: Climate Change: A Summary of the Science [ https://royalsociety.org/topics-policy/publications/2010/climate-change-summary-science ]
NRC, 2010: America’s Climate Choices: Advancing the Science of Climate Change [ https://www.nap.edu/catalog/12782 ]

Much of the original data underlying the scientific findings discussed here are available at:

https://data.ucar.edu/
https://climatedataguide.ucar.edu
https://iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu
https://ess-dive.lbl.gov/
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/
https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/
http://scrippsco2.ucsd.edu
http://hahana.soest.hawaii.edu/hot/

was established to advise the United States on scientific and technical issues when President Lincoln signed a Congressional charter in 1863. The National Research Council, the operating arm of the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering, has issued numerous reports on the causes of and potential responses to climate change. Climate change resources from the National Research Council are available at .

is a self-governing Fellowship of many of the world’s most distinguished scientists. Its members are drawn from all areas of science, engineering, and medicine. It is the national academy of science in the UK. The Society’s fundamental purpose, reflected in its founding Charters of the 1660s, is to recognise, promote, and support excellence in science, and to encourage the development and use of science for the benefit of humanity. More information on the Society’s climate change work is available at

Climate change is one of the defining issues of our time. It is now more certain than ever, based on many lines of evidence, that humans are changing Earth's climate. The Royal Society and the US National Academy of Sciences, with their similar missions to promote the use of science to benefit society and to inform critical policy debates, produced the original Climate Change: Evidence and Causes in 2014. It was written and reviewed by a UK-US team of leading climate scientists. This new edition, prepared by the same author team, has been updated with the most recent climate data and scientific analyses, all of which reinforce our understanding of human-caused climate change.

Scientific information is a vital component for society to make informed decisions about how to reduce the magnitude of climate change and how to adapt to its impacts. This booklet serves as a key reference document for decision makers, policy makers, educators, and others seeking authoritative answers about the current state of climate-change science.

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