Latest Research
Argus fundamental universe of coverage, daily spotlight, market watch {date:this.formatdateshort}, housing feeling weight of rates.
According to the National Association of Homebuilders, the expectations of homebuilders for future sales declined in January after six consecutive increases. The overall NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index still managed a one-point increase to 47, as current sales conditions rose by three points to 51 and traffic from prospective buyers rose by two points to 33. Expectations for the next six months slipped to 60 in January from 66 in December. Builders are hopeful about improving economic growth and more favorable regulatory conditions, but concerned that tariffs on building materials and a larger U.S. budget deficit will raise inflation and mortgage rates. An index reading below 50 indicates that more builders see conditions as poor than good. After the recent stronger-than-expected report on Housing Starts from the Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development, NAHB Chairman Carl Harris said the following. "The industry expects to see a slight gain for single-family home building in 2025 because of a persistent housing shortage and ongoing solid economic conditions." Building permits in 2024 rose 6.6% in 2024, which is a positive sign for 2025, the NAHB said. On Monday, the Census Bureau and HUD will report New Home Sales for December. We expect a 2.5% year-over-year increase to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 670,000. That's better than the 15-year average of 550,000, but well below the 2005 peak of over 1.3 million. On Tuesday, we expect the S&P/Case-Shiller National Home Price Index to post 3.0% growth in November, on a year-over-year basis. The index rose 3.6% in October. Fannie Mae expects price gains to decelerate to 3.5% in 2025, with affordability stretched. The Zillow Home Value Index rose by an annual 2.6% in December. We remain upbeat on homebuilders because demographics point to strong demand amid a decades-long shortage of affordable homes. Builders are pragmatically offering incentives to drive sales. ... and more favorable regulatory conditions, but concerned that tariffs on building materials and a larger U.S. budget deficit will raise inflation and mortgage rates. An index reading below 50 indicates that more builders see conditions as poor than good. After the recent stronger-than-expected report on Housing Starts from the Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development, NAHB Chairman Carl Harris said the following. "The industry expects to see a slight gain for single-family home building in 2025 because of a persistent housing shortage and ongoing solid economic conditions." Building permits in 2024 rose 6.6% in 2024, which is a positive sign for 2025, the NAHB said. On Monday, the Census Bureau and HUD will report New Home Sales for December. We expect a 2.5% year-over-year increase to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 670,000. That's better than the 15-year average of 550,000, but well below the 2005 peak of over 1.3 million. On Tuesday, we expect the S&P/Case-Shiller National Home Price Index to post 3.0% growth in November, on a year-over-year basis. The index rose 3.6% in October. Fannie Mae expects price gains to decelerate to 3.5% in 2025, with affordability stretched. The Zillow Home Value Index rose by an annual 2.6% in December. We remain upbeat on homebuilders because demographics point to strong demand amid a decades-long shortage of affordable homes. Builders are pragmatically offering incentives to drive sales. more
Market Podcast
Argus president john eade reviews his 8 fundamental forecasts for 2023, analyst quick notes, weekly stock list: focus list changes, weekly stock list: argus’ best picks for 2025, weekly stock list: hidden treasure in 2025, weekly stock list: shooting stars and falling angels in 2024, weekly stock list: new coverage in 2024, news & media.
Webinar Announcement - Argus Research Analysts Top Picks for 2025 - Wednesday 1/8/2025, 11am ET
Webinar Announcement - Argus Research 2025 Outlook. 12/04/2024
Webinar Announcement - Financial Services Sector Outlook. . 11/06/2024
Webinar - The Election: Scenarios and Sector Outlook. 10/02/2024
Webinar - Consumer Discretionary: Retail and Housing Outlook. 9/04/2024
Webinar - Utilities: Opportunities in a Declining-Rate Environment. 8/07/2024
New Portfolio Update
The argus dividend growth model portfolio.
Dividend income is often overlooked amid gyrations in the stock market. .... more
Thus far in 2024, market bulls are boasting 20%-plus S&P 500 returns. No one is very focused on the broad market index’s 1.2% current yield. But dividends are an important element of return. Dividend income accounted for 42% of the total return of the S&P 500 between 1930 and 2012, according to Hartford Funds. And that’s just the average. In some of those decades, dividends accounted for more than 50% of total returns and even 100% of returns. More recently, dividends have accounted for a smaller portion of returns, at around 15%-20%. Not for nothing, in 2022, dividend payments softened the blow when most market indices turned bearish as the Federal Reserve hiked interest rates. We saw that pattern in 2018 as well. Not all dividends are created equal, though, and it is important to understand the difference between the two main categories: high-yield stocks and dividend-growth stocks.
Market View
Stocks waffling to end the week.
Stocks are seeking direction at midday on Friday, seemingly at the predictable impasse that so often kicks in when the phrase “all-time high” is applicable to many stocks and indices. Nonetheless, the week seems assured to end higher and will therefore mark the second consecutive winning week for stocks. ... more
Stocks atop the leader board today include Twilio (TWLO, up 22%), Himax Technologies (HIMX, up 17%), Dana Inc. (DAN, up 15%), and Rigetti Computing (RGTI, up 14%). Stocks falling the most today include Ericsson (ERIC, down 13%), Federal National Mortgage (FNMA, down 11%), Federal Home Loan Mortgage (FMCC, down 11%), and Moog Inc. (MOG, down 7%). The S&P 500 is up 0.08%, the Dow is down 0.13%, the Nasdaq is down 0.18%, and the Russell 2000 is up 0.13%. Industries trading higher today include: Electric Utilities, Interactive Media & Services, and Construction Materials. Industries trading lower today include: Consumer Finance, Semiconductor & Semiconductor Equipment, and Wireless Telecommunication Services. The VIX is down 0.32 at 14.70 after closing yesterday at 15.02. Options on Merck & Co Inc (MRK) have appeared on the most-active list today with more than 10,812 contracts of the Jan. 31 97 call, changing hands. The put/call ratio is 0.7 (1,395,987)/(2,007,500). NYSE Adv/Dec (1709/1031). Nasdaq Adv/Dec (2575/1644). [Argus Research, various news and data sources]
Stocks atop the leader board today include Twilio (TWLO, up 22%), Himax Technologies (HIMX, up 17%), Dana Inc. (DAN, up 15%), and Rigetti Computing (RGTI, up 14%). Stocks falling the most today include Ericsson (ERIC, down 13%), Federal National Mortgage (FNMA, down 11%), Federal Home Loan Mortgage (FMCC, down 11%), and Moog Inc. (MOG, down 7%).
The S&P 500 is up 0.08%, the Dow is down 0.13%, the Nasdaq is down 0.18%, and the Russell 2000 is up 0.13%.
Industries trading higher today include: Electric Utilities, Interactive Media & Services, and Construction Materials. Industries trading lower today include: Consumer Finance, Semiconductor & Semiconductor Equipment, and Wireless Telecommunication Services.
The VIX is down 0.32 at 14.70 after closing yesterday at 15.02. Options on Merck & Co Inc (MRK) have appeared on the most-active list today with more than 10,812 contracts of the Jan. 31 97 call, changing hands. The put/call ratio is 0.7 (1,395,987)/(2,007,500).
NYSE Adv/Dec (1709/1031). Nasdaq Adv/Dec (2575/1644).
[Argus Research, various news and data sources] less
Weekly Economic Commentary
The fed pumps the brakes: our monthly survey of the economy, interest rates, and stocks.
In 2024, November was by far the best month of the year, with the S&P 500 rising 5.7% on post-election enthusiasm toward an incoming administration viewed as business-friendly. December was another story, with the broad market index falling 2.5%. Down Decembers are not all that uncommon; the S&P 500 fell 5.9% in December 2022 and 9.2% in December 2018. ... more
Latest Research
Argus fundamental universe of coverage, daily spotlight, market watch {date:this.formatdateshort}, housing feeling weight of rates.
According to the National Association of Homebuilders, the expectations of homebuilders for future sales declined in January after six consecutive increases. The overall NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index still managed a one-point increase to 47, as current sales conditions rose by three points to 51 and traffic from prospective buyers rose by two points to 33. Expectations for the next six months slipped to 60 in January from 66 in December. Builders are hopeful about improving economic growth and more favorable regulatory conditions, but concerned that tariffs on building materials and a larger U.S. budget deficit will raise inflation and mortgage rates. An index reading below 50 indicates that more builders see conditions as poor than good. After the recent stronger-than-expected report on Housing Starts from the Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development, NAHB Chairman Carl Harris said the following. "The industry expects to see a slight gain for single-family home building in 2025 because of a persistent housing shortage and ongoing solid economic conditions." Building permits in 2024 rose 6.6% in 2024, which is a positive sign for 2025, the NAHB said. On Monday, the Census Bureau and HUD will report New Home Sales for December. We expect a 2.5% year-over-year increase to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 670,000. That's better than the 15-year average of 550,000, but well below the 2005 peak of over 1.3 million. On Tuesday, we expect the S&P/Case-Shiller National Home Price Index to post 3.0% growth in November, on a year-over-year basis. The index rose 3.6% in October. Fannie Mae expects price gains to decelerate to 3.5% in 2025, with affordability stretched. The Zillow Home Value Index rose by an annual 2.6% in December. We remain upbeat on homebuilders because demographics point to strong demand amid a decades-long shortage of affordable homes. Builders are pragmatically offering incentives to drive sales. ... and more favorable regulatory conditions, but concerned that tariffs on building materials and a larger U.S. budget deficit will raise inflation and mortgage rates. An index reading below 50 indicates that more builders see conditions as poor than good. After the recent stronger-than-expected report on Housing Starts from the Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development, NAHB Chairman Carl Harris said the following. "The industry expects to see a slight gain for single-family home building in 2025 because of a persistent housing shortage and ongoing solid economic conditions." Building permits in 2024 rose 6.6% in 2024, which is a positive sign for 2025, the NAHB said. On Monday, the Census Bureau and HUD will report New Home Sales for December. We expect a 2.5% year-over-year increase to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 670,000. That's better than the 15-year average of 550,000, but well below the 2005 peak of over 1.3 million. On Tuesday, we expect the S&P/Case-Shiller National Home Price Index to post 3.0% growth in November, on a year-over-year basis. The index rose 3.6% in October. Fannie Mae expects price gains to decelerate to 3.5% in 2025, with affordability stretched. The Zillow Home Value Index rose by an annual 2.6% in December. We remain upbeat on homebuilders because demographics point to strong demand amid a decades-long shortage of affordable homes. Builders are pragmatically offering incentives to drive sales. more
Market Podcast
Argus president john eade reviews his 8 fundamental forecasts for 2023, analyst quick notes, weekly stock list: focus list changes, weekly stock list: argus’ best picks for 2025, weekly stock list: hidden treasure in 2025, weekly stock list: shooting stars and falling angels in 2024, weekly stock list: new coverage in 2024, news & media.
Webinar Announcement - Argus Research Analysts Top Picks for 2025 - Wednesday 1/8/2025, 11am ET
Webinar Announcement - Argus Research 2025 Outlook. 12/04/2024
Webinar Announcement - Financial Services Sector Outlook. . 11/06/2024
Webinar - The Election: Scenarios and Sector Outlook. 10/02/2024
Webinar - Consumer Discretionary: Retail and Housing Outlook. 9/04/2024
Webinar - Utilities: Opportunities in a Declining-Rate Environment. 8/07/2024
New Portfolio Update
The argus dividend growth model portfolio.
Dividend income is often overlooked amid gyrations in the stock market. .... more
Thus far in 2024, market bulls are boasting 20%-plus S&P 500 returns. No one is very focused on the broad market index’s 1.2% current yield. But dividends are an important element of return. Dividend income accounted for 42% of the total return of the S&P 500 between 1930 and 2012, according to Hartford Funds. And that’s just the average. In some of those decades, dividends accounted for more than 50% of total returns and even 100% of returns. More recently, dividends have accounted for a smaller portion of returns, at around 15%-20%. Not for nothing, in 2022, dividend payments softened the blow when most market indices turned bearish as the Federal Reserve hiked interest rates. We saw that pattern in 2018 as well. Not all dividends are created equal, though, and it is important to understand the difference between the two main categories: high-yield stocks and dividend-growth stocks.
Market View
Stocks waffling to end the week.
Stocks are seeking direction at midday on Friday, seemingly at the predictable impasse that so often kicks in when the phrase “all-time high” is applicable to many stocks and indices. Nonetheless, the week seems assured to end higher and will therefore mark the second consecutive winning week for stocks. ... more
Stocks atop the leader board today include Twilio (TWLO, up 22%), Himax Technologies (HIMX, up 17%), Dana Inc. (DAN, up 15%), and Rigetti Computing (RGTI, up 14%). Stocks falling the most today include Ericsson (ERIC, down 13%), Federal National Mortgage (FNMA, down 11%), Federal Home Loan Mortgage (FMCC, down 11%), and Moog Inc. (MOG, down 7%). The S&P 500 is up 0.08%, the Dow is down 0.13%, the Nasdaq is down 0.18%, and the Russell 2000 is up 0.13%. Industries trading higher today include: Electric Utilities, Interactive Media & Services, and Construction Materials. Industries trading lower today include: Consumer Finance, Semiconductor & Semiconductor Equipment, and Wireless Telecommunication Services. The VIX is down 0.32 at 14.70 after closing yesterday at 15.02. Options on Merck & Co Inc (MRK) have appeared on the most-active list today with more than 10,812 contracts of the Jan. 31 97 call, changing hands. The put/call ratio is 0.7 (1,395,987)/(2,007,500). NYSE Adv/Dec (1709/1031). Nasdaq Adv/Dec (2575/1644). [Argus Research, various news and data sources]
Stocks atop the leader board today include Twilio (TWLO, up 22%), Himax Technologies (HIMX, up 17%), Dana Inc. (DAN, up 15%), and Rigetti Computing (RGTI, up 14%). Stocks falling the most today include Ericsson (ERIC, down 13%), Federal National Mortgage (FNMA, down 11%), Federal Home Loan Mortgage (FMCC, down 11%), and Moog Inc. (MOG, down 7%).
The S&P 500 is up 0.08%, the Dow is down 0.13%, the Nasdaq is down 0.18%, and the Russell 2000 is up 0.13%.
Industries trading higher today include: Electric Utilities, Interactive Media & Services, and Construction Materials. Industries trading lower today include: Consumer Finance, Semiconductor & Semiconductor Equipment, and Wireless Telecommunication Services.
The VIX is down 0.32 at 14.70 after closing yesterday at 15.02. Options on Merck & Co Inc (MRK) have appeared on the most-active list today with more than 10,812 contracts of the Jan. 31 97 call, changing hands. The put/call ratio is 0.7 (1,395,987)/(2,007,500).
NYSE Adv/Dec (1709/1031). Nasdaq Adv/Dec (2575/1644).
[Argus Research, various news and data sources] less
Weekly Economic Commentary
The fed pumps the brakes: our monthly survey of the economy, interest rates, and stocks.
In 2024, November was by far the best month of the year, with the S&P 500 rising 5.7% on post-election enthusiasm toward an incoming administration viewed as business-friendly. December was another story, with the broad market index falling 2.5%. Down Decembers are not all that uncommon; the S&P 500 fell 5.9% in December 2022 and 9.2% in December 2018. ... more
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IMAGES
COMMENTS
[Argus Research, various news and data sources] Active Stocks: Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) blew past the 4Q EPS consensus, recorded its best quarter of subscription additions, and said it was raising prices.
Our team of Analysts & Strategists provide ratings and reports on thousands of securities, utilizing both our proprietary qualitative and quantitative approaches. Our analysts cover more than 400 stocks, which are distributed across more than 60 industries and all asset classes. These stocks are rated BUY, HOLD & SELL.
Dec 4, 2024 · Innovation draws global fund flows to U.S. markets. Thesis: With skilled workers scarce, severance expensive and GDP growth on the horizon we don’t expect notable layoffs. Outlook: Don’t worry about a repeat of temporarily muted spending in January as shoppers pay-off credit cards.
These include the Fed's program to reduce Treasury holdings by allowing them to mature; soaring fiscal deficits in Washington and a missing-in-action Congress; the downgrade of U.S. Treasury debt by Fitch Investor Services; and high-profile buys and sells by foreign owners of Treasury debt.
Vigilant Fed Focused on Inflation. The Federal Reserve wrapped up its latest Open Market Committee meeting last week and, as expected, held the current federal funds rate steady a
[Argus Research, various news and data sources] Active Stocks: Video game company, Electronic Arts (EA) lowered its revenue outlook. GE Aerospace (GE), newly streamlined GE, reported impressive 4Q results, boosted the dividend and announced an aggressive share buyback.
Rapidly rising inflation in 2022 knocked stocks into a bear market. more. The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for December was little changed from November.
Argus Research Company was founded in 1934 by economist Harold Dorsey, and was one of the first firms to provide systematic, independent research and analysis on U.S. equities to the professional market.
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