write an essay on political instability

Pakistan: Political Instability and Economic Growth

• Mehwish Hakeem Shahzad
• December 24, 2022
• CSS , CSS Essays , CSS Solved Essays , Current Affairs , PMS , PMS Essays , Socio-economic problems
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Can Political Instability and Economic Growth Not Move Together in Pakistan? | CSS Essays | PMS Essays | Essays by Sir Syed Kazim Ali | CSS Essays | PMS Essays | Essays by Sir Syed Kazim Ali

Mehwish Shahzad has attempted this essay on the given pattern, which Sir  Syed Kazim Ali  teaches his students, who have consistently been qualifying their CSS and PMS essays. The essay is uploaded to help other competitive aspirants learn and practice how to write a comprehensive outline; how to write bullets in an outline; how to write the introductory paragraph; how to connect sentences and paragraphs; how to write a topic sentence; how to put evidence within the paragraphs.

1- Introduction 2- Understanding the relationship between political instability and economic growth 3- Current situation of political instability in Pakistan and its impact on the economy 4- How are political instability and economic growth can never move together?

• ✓ Inconsistent Economic policies, every new government abandoning the previous government’s economic projects due to their narrow mindedness GDP rate of 6.8% in the era of Ayub’s regime due to consistency in the policies
• ✓ Increasing unemployment owing to a decline in developmental and economic projects, a significant setback to the human capital due to political turmoil Political instability, the third most significant obstacle in the way of development, Word bank report
• ✓ Skyrocketing inflation due to the mismanagement and short-term policies of the government, declining rupee value Double-digit inflation increased to 24.9%, PBS report
• ✓ The gradual decay of economic institutions in the hand of politicians impeding economic progress Tarbela Hydropower project investigation in the NAB for corruption of Rs. 753 Mn by WAPDA
• ✓ Interrupting GDP growth, business, and trade activities due to riots and strikes by the frustrating people, a result of the political fiasco Unrest events leading to a 1% reduction in GDP, Survey report

5- How to ensure political stability for economic progress?

Political level

• ✓ Proper charter of economy, a national document for the country’s salvation by the consensus of all the political parties
• ✓ Long-term vision by the top leadership to foster political and economic stability and to avoid frequent ousters 
• ✓ Encouraging public participation to hold politicians accountable for immature and self-interest policies

Economic level

• ✓ Broadening of the tax base with the help of political commitment, leading to political and economic prosperity
• ✓ Shifting from a geostrategic to the geo-economic hub, a welcome initiative for the country’s political and economic progress
• ✓ Implementing CPEC projects effectively to engender economic growth

6- Critical Analysis 7- Conclusion

The economy is a country’s backbone, helping it march towards unsurpassable social and political development. However, political instability serves as a bottleneck to a state’s socioeconomic and political lifelines. Unfortunately, Pakistan also stands among those states where political upheaval has led the economy towards shambles. The current political scenario is the nadir of the country’s economic history. Since it is a fact that both cannot go hand in hand; the existence of one is the death of the other. It is saddening that frequent ouster of government leads to inconsistent economic policies affecting the smooth functioning of the economy since its inception. Moreover, increasing unemployment, skyrocketing inflation, and declining FDI result from political chaos since investors never invest in an uncertain political environment. Riots and strikes further interrupt business activities affecting the GDP of the country. Political turmoil has paved its way in the roots of the economy, damaging the economic institutions of Pakistan. It shows that political stability and economic prosperity have a symbiotic relationship. Both can work only in the shadow of each other, benefitting from each other at every turn. Therefore, pragmatic measures at the political and economic levels can help the country cope with political instability. At the political level, introducing an ethical charter of the economy as a national document, coupled with long-term vision by the top leaders and public participation, is imperative. At the economic level, widening the tax base, shifting to a geo-economic pivot, and implementing CPEC can engender economic growth. In the contemporary world, Pakistan can only progress if the country pulls itself out of these political clinches. Thus, the essay comprehensively analyses how political instability and economic growth can never move together. Also, it highlights the way forward to ensure political stability for economic progress. 

Political instability is the propensity of a government to collapse either because of poor economic performance or rampant competition between various political parties. On the other hand, economic growth implies improvements in a country’s national income, leading to good economic conditions for the people. However, a country with a strong and stable political structure can experience steady economic growth. Indeed, a robust, safe environment where a political authority knows its duties and responsibilities eliminates the uncertainty of the economic future. In the same way, the economy in support of such a strong political environment will ensure steady growth. However, unstable structures in politics, of course, is the most critical factor affecting the economic stability of a state since political stability is the precondition to economic stability. Ray Jovanovich aptly said,  “Without political stability, there can be no economic prosperity; that’s the bottom line.”

At present, political instability has become a matter of grave sickness for Pakistan. Since the recent ouster of the prime minister through the vote of no confidence has led a country towards instability and chaos. It has pushed the country to the brink of an implosion. Political instability manifests itself in Pakistan, including blame games, institutional decay, rising inflation, economic woes, and a tussle between the judiciary and executive. It casts dire consequences on the people’s political and economic development and social life. As a result, Markets expected Pakistan to be another Sri Lanka in the making. Since Pakistan has faced an acute foreign currency shortage after political instability, things may lead to a similar crisis in Sri Lanka. It is high time Pakistan swallowed the bitter pill of hard political reforms before it is too late.

Here, it is important to discuss that political instability and economic growth can never move together. Nevertheless, its effects are too severe to be ignored. Some of them will be brought under discussion in this section. To begin with, political instability leads to the switching of economic policies. When it came to power, every new government introduced its own economic model, which created volatility and inconsistency in the smooth functioning of the economic policies. As a result, investors feel reluctant to invest in such a volatile economy, which ultimately affects a country’s economic progress.  It is evident that economic growth in military regimes was better than that of democratic regimes due to their long tenure. The GDP rate was 6.8% during Ayub’s regime since dictators had long terms leading to consistency in the economic policies.  Hence, political unrest can never let the economy function smoothly. 

Moreover, political instability reduces a country’s foreign direct investment (FDI). Since investors does not feel comfortable to invest in a country with political uncertainty.  According to the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP), due to the recent ouster of the national government, investors withdrew their investment of $30 Million in the account of FDI . Moreover, it has multiplier effects, such as low investment in a country leading to low development, increased unemployment, increased poverty, and reduced foreign exchange reserves. Hence, it is proven that political chaos in a country is a severe blow to an already fragile economy. 

Both of the above arguments lead to another significant discussion, which befalls Pakistan’s economy in the shape of unemployment. In a developing country like Pakistan, no new projects can be installed in a deteriorating political condition. Similarly, it does not create new jobs in a country since it halts the expansion of existing projects.  According to World Bank, political uncertainty is the third most significant obstacle to Pakistan’s economy . It can impact not only the productivity and expenditure of a country but also the national income of a country. Thus, it depicts clearly that political instability and economic growth cannot go hand in hand. 

With this puzzle, the issue of rising inflation during political chaos hits below the belt of Pakistan’s economy. When there is a high probability of being replaced, it becomes difficult to manage inflation. As a result, it depreciates the value of the domestic currency and, eventually, impacts the import and exports of a country.  According to the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS), the annual inflation rate increased to 24.9% in July 2022, soon after the regime change. It was even expected to grow, which has dire consequences for the economy.  Hence, frequent cabinet changes and political turmoil are directly correlated to a country’s economic woes. 

Along with the mismanagement of inflation, the economic institutions of a country are also decaying in the hands of corrupt politicians. The economic institutions, including WAPDA, finance, commerce, textile, and industry, are all decaying due to incompetence, corruption, and ineptness.  Recently, the WAPDA chairman appeared before the National Accountability Bureau’s (NAB) office where he was interrogated about corruption worth Rs753 million in the Tarbela Fourth Hydropower project.  They invest only half on the ongoing projects, and the remaining half is pocketed for their use. Hence, this poor management, corruption, and inability caused stagnation of the economic process to a devastating end.

Last but most certainly not least, the riots and strikes due to political fiasco led to the closure of business and trade activities, interrupting the GDP growth.  According to a survey title ‘The Economics of Social Unrest’, “on average, unrest events caused a 1% decline in the GDP.” For Pakistan, the long political unrest could cause a major dent in GDP growth.  Political instability is common, followed by riots and strikes by the people. As a result, it halted business and trade activities. And it generated a negative signal to the investors, who consequently stopped investing in such a risky environment and shifted their business to other countries, affecting the economic progress.  

Pakistan’s current federal and provincial governments need to go beyond firefighting and push forward essential reforms at the political and economic levels that are key to ensuring the country’s political and economic stability and long-term growth prospects.  First,  there must be a charter of the economy for economic stability. All stakeholders should be a part making of the alliance. In this regard, government and the opposition should collaborate to steer the country out of unprecedented political and economic uncertainties. The basic goals should be set in the charter of the economy. Those goals shall remain unchanged in the case of the new government.  Recently, trade unions and business leaders had a meeting with the government and political parties to insist the government for the making of the charter.  Hence, it depicts that they already realized this step’s importance.

Second, political parties should sit together and carve out a long-term vision to foster political and economic development. The leadership formulates and executes the strategy through which a leader’s vision translates into a reality.  For instance, Deng Xiaoping changed China through his visionary leadership. He changed all the policies of the previous communist leader Mao Zedong; he introduced many reforms and engagements with the international community. Within a decade, he uplifted China out of the socioeconomic crisis. As a result, the per capita income of the Chinese was 25-fold, and 700 million people lifted themselves out of poverty.  Hence, fine-tuning the policies is necessary for political and economic growth.

Third, public participation should be encouraged since it can pull the country out of the political darkness. The active role of the public in politics would hold politicians accountable. As a result, they never skip from the pro-state attitude; and they never make immature and self-interest policies.  As Abraham Lincoln aptly says, “we the people are the rightful masters of congress and the courts.”  Therefore, public participation is significant for a country’s lasting political and economic system. 

At the economic level, the government needs to broaden the tax base bringing every sector and every individual above the threshold level under the tax net. It will help the government to reduce the budget deficit by up to 3% of the GDP in the next three years. This step would relieve the government from the budget deficit issue, and they can fully focus on the other issues of the economy. R ecently, amid the global crisis, Jordon pushed the tax ratio to six per cent, Egypt by three per cent and the Philippines by two per cent.  Pakistan can also do the same with the help of strong political commitment and stringent reforms. 

Next, the strategic shift from geo-strategic to geo-economic is a welcome and sound initiative by the government to realize Pakistan’s real potential. However, the government should need to formulate a proper strategy to implement it. Since the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) will connect Asia with Africa and Europe, Pakistan has a crucial role to play in it due to its strategic location.  As Chinese president Xi Jinping aptly says, “the BRI may be China’s idea, but its opportunities are going to benefit the entire world.”  Therefore, this project should be of prime importance to Pakistan’s government. Currently, it is the only way in the hand of Pakistan to realize its investment potential and achieve economic growth.

Last but certainly not least, China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is the harbinger of robust economic growth, and it is only possible through its proper implementation. Therefore, the government is required to fully focus on it and make sure that political upheaval would have no impact on it.  So far, it is estimated that USD 64 billion worth of foreign investment will arrive through China’s megaproject.  Therefore, it is high time for Pakistan to avail of this opportunity for investment to achieve economic progress. For this, Pakistan should build the trust of the industrialists and investors of this project and showcase itself as a safe haven for these investors. 

In a critical diagnosis, various elements in the country have remained responsible for the worsened political scenario of the country. First and foremost is the role of military leadership in interfering in the country’s political affairs. Initially, it was directly involved in politics through martial law, and recently, it stayed backstage but still manoeuvred with the system. The successive military coups have not led a genuinely representative political culture to develop in Pakistan, thus, impacting the political stability. Moreover, the power play between the opposition party and the government has primarily affected the country’s political system. the main objective to gain power has blinded them to the country’s national interest. Therefore, their strategies to weaken each other have negatively impacted the political stability in Pakistan, hindering economic growth.

In conclusion, it is no exaggeration to say that political instability and economic growth can never move together. However, Pakistan can move towards economic development by overcoming the challenge of political instability in valid letters and spirit. For that matter, the government needs to make a plan to overcome the issue of political unrest in a country, not only at the political and economic levels. A proper charter of the economy by the consensus of all the political parties is the need of an hour. Also, special attention needs to be given to public participation in political matters, and long-term vision by the political leadership can surely bring political and economic stability. However, some more needs to be done; Pakistan has great prowess to transform itself from a crisis-ridden state to a flourished economy if the CPEC and the new narrative of geo-economics are implemented in true essence since it has trickle-down effects. Similarly, other measures like widening the tax base and other political and economic measures are vital efforts to engender political and economic progress. Indeed, by taking suggested measures, political stability can be achieved, which eventually helps the country reach the economic progress milestone. 

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An Economic Impact of Political Instability: An Evidence from Pakistan

Article history Received: April 04, 2021 Revised: April 22, 2021 Accepted: April 26, 2021 The economy of Pakistan has been badly damaged by the political instability in the country. Despite its enormous economic resources, Pakistan’s economy remained under dark shadows during most of its historical discourse. The economic indicators describe a significant relationship between politics and the economy of Pakistan. The following study, by reviewing previous studies, concludes that there is a negative relationship between political instability and economic growth in Pakistan from 2000 to 2019. Political instability flourished corruption and reduced the economic growth of the country. Moreover, a weak political system and government institutions could not resist the political tension in the country. The study finally concludes that political instability reduces economic growth in the country and economic growth reinforces political stability in the country.

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Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences

Shujahat Hashmi

In case of Pakistan, only economic variables are observed as causes to high economic volatility while political variables are completely ignored. Although, it is apparent that the development pattern in Pakistan is highly volatile during the years of political instability that spans almost over the half history of the country. By taking the sample of 1971 to 2008 and using simple OLS technique, we observe how far political instability hampers the economic development of Pakistan. For the political instability measurement, ignoring all traditional measures of political instability, we construct political instability index by using seven different variables for Pakistan by employing Principal Component Technique; while for economic development measurement frequently economic development variables are used. Through analysis, the negative relationship is found between political instability and economic development in Pakistan.

The purpose of this paper is to empirically determine the effects of political instability in Pakistan within compared with India and China. We discussed GDP per capita and their impact on economic growth. By using the standard deviation and co- variance on a sample of 3 countries, and 5-year periods from 1988 to 2014, this study demonstrates that a significant negative relationship exists between political instability and economic growth we find that higher degrees of political instability are associated with lower growth rates of GDP Per capita. While democracy may have a small negative effect.

Prof.Dr.Abdul Ghafoor Awan

The objective of this paper was to investigate the relationship between economic growth and political instability. For this purpose, we selected three variables such as political instability, inflation rate and public debt to measure their impact on Gross Domestic Product (GDP). We used panel data and analyzed it through SPSS software to draw the results. We applied Multiple Regression, ANOVA and Correlation techniques for analysis of data. Our results show that there is a negative correlation between public debt and economic growth. Similarly, there is also a negative correlation between public debt and political instability. Our study suggests that Pakistan must reduce level of public debt and political instability and inflation in order to achieve high level of economic growth.

The political instability is condition for the nation building and nation building is process compulsory for the development of a nation. In most of developing countries the governments are not stable. A new government comes into the power overnight; either through coup data or army takes over. The new government introduces a new system of rules for the operation of business which cause frustration and anger among the people. Political instability now becomes a serious problem especially in developing countries. It is creating enormous difficulties and delaying the development of these countries. Political stability plays an important role in keeping society united and in maintaining legitimacy within the state. It is an essential for the economic development, social integration, and supremacy of law in a state. The stability of political system has direct effects on the procedures of nation and state building. These both require stable political systems for their growth and successful. The development of nation and state without firm and organized system of politics is not possible. So Political instability can be defined at least three ways, first approach is as, the propensity for regime or government change, second is to focus on the incidence of political disorder or violence in a society, such as killings, third approach focuses on economic growth affect by instability. PAKISTAN has spent 34 out of its 68 years, or half its life, in internal political instability as regime instability, political emergencies and constitutional deadlocks. Long-term instability in Pakistan has been significantly higher than in East Asia and post-Partition India. Lack of mature leadership, confrontation between the main organs of the state, poor relations between the center and the provinces, extensive corruption, distrust among the politicians, strong bureaucracy and crisis of governance are the immediate threats to democracy in Pakistan The political instability is directly affected economic growth. How does it affect economic growth and why this is important in developing countries like Pakistan is discussed in brief below? When there is lack of political instability in the county, it directly effects the economic growth. It closes off sources of internal and external investments. The eternal investors does not invest in the countries where there is civil war coups, army take over etc. is either small or zero. The lack of interest by the foreign investors for foreign direct investment, and giving Pakistan access to the productive markets are making economy low and more likely to rely on foreign aid. The improper use of aid on the huge disasters like earth quake in 2005 and on the wake of flood in 2010 has lost the trust of donors to support Pakistan sufficiently even in most difficult times. So that investment remains shy the Growth will remain the dream which leads the high unemployment and poverty. Political instability also limits internal investment. The wealthy classes in under developed countries have enough income to replacement. They can invest their saving in profitable projects. Generally they avoid investing

Journal of Research in Administrative Sciences

Ijaz Bokhari

IJMSBR Open Access Journal

This study analyzed the impact of political instability on financial development of Pakistan. OLS regression is used for the estimation of data. Time series data is used for the study. 40 years are included in the time series from 1972 to 2011. The variable of interest is political instability controlling the effects of trade openness, legal protection and GDP/capita. The regression results showed that political instability has negative significant impact on financial development of Pakistan. Trade openness is positive but insignificant with financial development. Legal protection and GDP/capita showed positive and significant impact on the financial development of Pakistan.

Dr. G H U L A M MUSTAFA , MUSHARAF RUBAB

The purpose of the study is to determine the impact of political instability on economic growth. For this purpose, we measured political instability by means of three proxies: terrorism, govt. type and election year whereas economic growth is determined with GDP annual growth rate. We used data from 1988 to 2016 and applied ARCH model as our dependent variable (economic growth) is subject to heteroscedasticy and ARCH effect. The results showed that political instability measured with terrorism and election year has negative effect on economic growth. However, govt. type is also found to be negative though insignificant. The study adds to the literature of Pakistan and is helpful for policymakers and investors

Journal of Accounting and Finance in Emerging Economies

Ghulam Muhammad Mangnejo

This research paper empirically investigates the outcome of Political stability on economic growth (EG) of Pakistan for the period of 1988 to 2018. Political stability (PS), gross fixed capital formation (GFCF), total labor force (TLF) and Inflation (INF) are important explanatory variables. Whereas for model selection GDPr is used as the dependent variable. To check the stationary of time series data Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) unit root (UR) test has been used, and whereas to find out the long run relationship among variables, OLS method has been used. The analysis the impact of PS on EG (EG) in the short run, VAR model has been used. The outcomes show that all the variables (PS, GFCF, TLF and INF) have a significantly positive effect on the EG of Pakistan in the long run period. But the effect of PS on GDP is smaller. Further, in this research we are trying to see the short run relationship between GDP and other explanatory variables. The outcomes show that PS does not have su...

Ali Abbas. PhD , Muhammad Sultan

The purpose of this research piece is to examine the chances and problems that Pakistan's economy has encountered in light of the country's rising political unrest. It studies the effects of political unpredictability on economic growth and development and analyses Pakistan's methods and policies for achieving economic recovery in the face of such difficult conditions. The article uses a variety of academic research and case studies to provide light on the wellknown instance of Pakistan's economic recovery in the face of political unrest. Pakistan, a nation that has gone through political unrest in the past, is today juggling the task of economic recovery with escalating political unrest. This study offers a thorough examination of the complex interplay between political unrest and growth in the economy of Pakistan, putting it forward as a traditional case study. This paper examines the complex dynamics and inter-dependencies between political instability and economic recovery by drawing on a theoretical framework that includes the concepts of political economy, institutional theory, and dependency theory. This study provides a comprehensive analysis of the complex dynamics between political unrest and economic recovery in Pakistan. By understanding these interdependencies, policymakers can formulate targeted strategies to navigate challenges and foster long-term economic stability and development.

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Political Instability (Essay Sample)

Political instability.

Political instability has crippled the normal functioning of authorities in Pakistan for more than six decades. Since the beginning of political instability, the country has not been able to get rid of some of the main causes and propellers of the problems. Such factors include coexistence of communities who live in hostility, historical factors, tribal systems and partisan segregation. The country has not been able to regain political stability because of conflicts constitutionally, lack of democracy where people can freely express their will, economic turbulence, and absence of social growth. As a consequence, the public does not have an opportunity to be educated on how to hold their leaders accountable for anything they do.

Some factors have significantly contributed to the rise of lack of democracy. The policy makers politicized these issues with an aim of introducing democratic systems in Pakistan but only ended up promoting non-democratic elements such as the army. Such factors include territorial conflicts with India, the large existence of social-economic differences among the citizens, power struggle among the provinces and also the early death of Mohammad Ali Jinnah who was the founder of Pakistan.

The system in Pakistan dictates that the winner takes everything and the loser has nothing. Every political side fights so hard to take power for the benefits that come with it. All successive civilian and military leaders have practiced this form of governing hence not offering long-term solutions to the people of Pakistan. The Muslim League which fought hard to have independence in Pakistan lacked democracy within itself. The members of the Muslim League, therefore, brought independence but with ill intentions to benefit themselves. The ten-year history between 1947 and 1956 lacked a guiding constitution and was an insincere exercise by the political leaders. The consequence was an invocation of the military who interfered with political systems.

The judiciary system has done little to help the country stabilize. It has in fact promoted the instability by taking double stances in historical matters. It is, therefore, vulnerable to political interference and has bowed in to pressure. On most occasions, the judiciary has encouraged dictators to assume power in ways that are seen as legal when in actual sense they are not. Besides, the structure of Pakistan state is very dynamic hence it prevents any democratic achievements established in the country. Pakistan has provinces divided based on ethnic boundaries. Consequently, ethnic dimensions have a significant impact on political loyalties since the central governments have the urge to be in control and manage the ethnic diversity.

Closely related to ethnic diversity is violent politics in the struggle for power. There is no exercise of patience among the citizens and leaders as required in democracies. The fear of losing drives people to violence which has a direct consequence on the economy. There is a high rate of inflation, high-income inequality among the citizens since the elite own too much yet the common citizens live in extreme poverty, negative financing to the government and also extreme deficiency of expenditure on infrastructure systems and education.

There are various steps that can be taken in order to revive political stability in Pakistan. The main areas of target should be introducing major reforms in the judiciary, establishment of an independent commission to be in charge of elections, promoting internal party elections as a way of establishing internal democracy, promoting freedom of the Press, better division of the provinces to promote peaceful coexistence among different communities, strict adherence to the constitution and protection of civil societies and other minorities.

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Domestic Political Instability

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Essay on Political Instability: A hurdle in National Development for Class 10, 12 and Mains Exam

Essay on political instability: a hurdle in national development for class 10, 12, mains exam (upsc, psc, ssc).

Political instability has become a severe conundrum for both developing and under developing country.Dictatorship is one of the major causes of political instability as it cripples the institution of leadership. Pakistan has political instability as it is forming coalition among many political parties. When the natural tendency of the government collapses due to conflict between the political parties or uncontrolled competition among them. Political instability is a persistent processand it affects the functioning of the economy. Political upheavals in society such as assassinations, demonstrations show political instability.In a political instable condition, the people cannot use powers for the development of the nation, they lose faith ion the government and chooses their own interest over the state.

How political instability creates a hurdle?

Effects of political instability:, conclusion:.

Political instability acts a hurdle in the national development of the country. The economic growth and the GDP come to a standstill. Problems such as corruption and unemployment arise due to political instability. People lose faith in the government and the entire administration gets crippled.

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Environmental Threats and Political Instability Essay

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Individuals worldwide are exposed to numerous threats, most of which are beyond their control. For example, the Coronavirus Pandemic ravaged populations and significantly impacted world economies. Similarly, some people suffer from the implications of natural disasters such as hurricanes, earthquakes, and tsunamis. However, the biggest threats and challenges to the world today arise from political instability and the effects of climate change, as the whole world is feeling the pinch of wars in some regions and the worsening environmental crisis. Nevertheless, security agreements, global human rights movements, and environmental agreements have greatly alleviated civic strife due to political crimes and encouraged governments to focus on environmental conservation.

The ever-increasing tension between global governments and nations with conflicting interests is one of the greatest risks to human security, democracy, and civil rights. Over the years, countries, particularly in the Middle East, have waged war against one another due to religious, cultural, and political differences (Henderson, 2009). Today, Russia, one of the world’s most powerful nations, has taken advantage of its powers to invade Ukraine and threaten any country that interferes with its actions (Mandelbaum, 2019). Therefore, building political tension between the US, European countries, Russia, and China is a significant threat to peace and harmony as it can plunge world governments into a destructive war and result in unimaginable losses.

Additionally, the impact of climate change is taking a toll on the global food production capacity and resulting in abnormal weather patterns worldwide. Researchers suggest that melting ice caps have increased groundwater levels, resulting in floods and heavy rains in some areas. At the same time, some regions on the globe are experiencing extended periods without rain, which limits their agricultural prospects (Cavicchioli et al., 2019). In addition, the changing weather patterns affect the quality of natural life as some plant and animal species can barely survive in their habitats (Henderson, 2009). Subsequently, the worsening environmental crisis may render the globe inhabitable and potentially wipe out the human race. Nevertheless, international actors have established strategies to limit adverse outcomes due to factors threatening human life.

Regardless of the complexities associated with environmental threats and global political instability, the international community has embarked on various mechanisms to prevent adverse outcomes and diminish the pace of escalations. The emergence of international human rights laws and movements such as the United Nations and NATO has improved individuals’ lives by limiting nations from doing as they please (Henderson, 2009). These movements call for all state actors to treat citizens according to stipulated human rights standards. Similarly, institutions like United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) create awareness and advocate for collaborative approaches to dealing with climate change issues, pollution, natural life, and sustainable development (Cavicchioli et al., 2019). Thus, international organizations drive positive change in human development and limit potential crises.

Peace, harmony, and living in a rich and conducive environment are critical components in human advancement and continuous development. However, destructive individuals’ action in the environment and political instability due to selfish interests put others at harm and threatens the existence of the human race. However, international non-governmental organizations and bodies like the UN, NATO, and UNEP address various areas of these issues using powers accorded to them by agreements and state treaties. Hence, they play a major role in preventing the escalation of conflicts into wars, environmental destruction, and human rights crimes, which are today’s major threats.

Cavicchioli, R., Ripple, W. J., Timmis, K. N., Azam, F., Bakken, L. R., Baylis, M.,… & Webster, N. S. (2019). Scientists’ warning to humanity: microorganisms and climate change . Nature Reviews Microbiology , 17 (9), 569–586. Web.

Henderson, C. W. (2009). Understanding international law . John Wiley & Sons.

Mandelbaum, M. (2019). The new containment: handling Russia, China, and Iran . Foreign Aff. , 98 , 123. Web.

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On the economic costs of political instabilities: a tale of sub-Saharan Africa

• Published: 23 June 2023
• Volume 66 , pages 137–173, ( 2024 )

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• Joe Maganga Zonda 1 ,
• Chang-Ching Lin 2 &
• Ming-Jen Chang 1  

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The relationship between political instability (PI) and economic development has been extensively debated in the social sciences, yielding contrasting empirical results. In this article, we synergise two novel techniques—synthetic control (SC) and matrix completion (MC)—to study the economic effects of PI events on the sub-Saharan African scene. Our identification strategies capture potential spatial and temporal heterogeneities of treatment effects. We show that PI inflicts statistically and economically significant collateral damage, albeit heterogeneous across economies and over time. Notably, the group average treatment effect on the treated (ATT) reveals output shrinkage of approximately 17–20 percentage points. Exploiting the temporal dimension of the two techniques, we find that although output loss persists into the long run, the bulk of the damage is wrecked in the short run. This finding particularly casts doubt on the full economic recovery hypothesis in the near aftermath of a PI episode. Furthermore, we unearth spatial heterogeneities of the effects where we show that the negative effects are disproportionately more pronounced for economies which experience protracted PI episodes. Lastly, our paper demonstrates that while both methods provide reliable counterfactuals, the MC estimator yields significantly better pre-treatment fit in our data than the SC framework.

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Evaluating social vulnerability indicators: criteria and their application to the Social Vulnerability Index

Crime, deterrence and punishment revisited

How much does reducing inequality matter for global poverty?

Availability of data and material.

All data and materials leveraged in the analysis are publicly available, and all the sources to draw the data are disclosed in the manuscript.

We use the term SSA region broadly to encompass all economies wholly or partially located to the south of the Sahara desert–including Djibouti and Somalia, whose categorisation varies across different sources.

See also, inter alia Benhabib and Rustichini ( 1996 ); Devereux and Wen ( 1998 ); Svensson ( 1998 ); Murdoch and Sandler ( 2002 ).

See, for instance, the control units used in Costalli et al. ( 2017 ) and Matta et al. ( 2022 ).

We relax this assumption in our empirical application.

In our analysis, as we document below, \(j = 1\) could be any of the nineteen SSA countries which experienced PI episodes during the 1980–2013 window, while the donor pool comprises of all other African countries that did not experience any PI episode during the entire study period (1965–2013).

Please see Liu et al. ( 2022 ) for a detailed formal discussion of the model specifications.

See Marshall and Cole ( 2009 ) and Themnér and Wallensteen ( 2012 ) for the updated versions of the respective databases.

Our choice of a decade-long post-treatment window is also inspired by Abadie et al. ( 2015 ).

We assume that the effects of the prior PI episode may not erode away within that 5-year horizon (see, e.g. Kang and Meernik 2005 ; Collier 1999 ; De Groot et al. 2022 ).

Similar inclusion criteria were used by Adhikari et al. ( 2018 ) in their study of reform waves using the SC framework.

Although Eritrea also meet our case selection criteria, the country is dropped due to data paucity.

This precludes Angola, Benin, Chad, Mauritius, Morocco, Mozambique, Nigeria, Uganda and Zimbabwe.

Alternatively, one is suggested to employ the Demeaned synthetic control (due to Ferman and Pinto 2021 ) in order to circumvent this challenge. Note that this paper does not pursue this route since our goal is to compare the prototype SC against its prototype MC counterpart.

See Abadie ( 2021 ) for a related discussion on data requirements in the practical application of SC frameworks.

Note that our results remain robust to the exclusion of exogenous matching covariates (see Sect.  5.2.3 ).

For the SC framework, we exploit the distribution of post-/pre-treatment RMSPE ratio to estimate the p-value following Abadie et al. ( 2010 ) and Galiani and Quistorff ( 2017 ), as we discuss in Sect.  5 . The p-value for the MC estimator is borrowed from Liu et al. ( 2022 ).

Please refer to Ben-Michael et al. ( 2022 ) for a formal contextual discussion of the SSC variant.

We also attempted this exercise using the interactive fixed effects counterfactual (IFEct) approach, whose results remain robust to those of the MC estimator. Nevertheless, the IFEct estimator is outperformed by the latter. Results for the IFEct estimations may be obtained from the authors upon a written request.

All MC estimates are based on unit-level bootstraps with 200 replications.

In fact, Hodler ( 2019 ) provides evidence of full economic recovery 17 years following the 1994 Rwandan genocide.

A subset of treated countries that share physical borders with members of the donor pool includes: Burundi, Burkina Faso, Central African Republic, Republic of Congo, Gambia, Mali and Rwanda.

We also report the results of this exercise for the SC framework in Fig.  16 . Indeed, the SC results largely corroborate those obtained by the MC estimator.

These results can be accessed from the authors upon request.

We owe an anonymous referee for this observation.

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Acknowledgements

The authors are grateful to the Editor and the two anonymous referees for the constructive comments that substantially improved the paper. The authors are also indebted to Hung-Ju Chen, Diana Carillo, Dinarti Tarigan, Shu-Shiuan Lu, Ziyi Liu and participants at the 2022 Taiwan Economics Association Conference for helpful suggestions and discussions. The usual disclaimer applies.

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Appendix A: Donor pool weights for SC framework

This Appendix presents the weights of the control units used in the construction of the SC counterfactuals (Table  3 ).

Appendix B: Other robustness checks

See Figs.  15 ,  16 ,  17  and  18 .

Effects of PI episodes on GDP (log): treated (black line) vs control units (grey lines). Notes : The horizontal axis illustrates the number of years relative to the onset of the PI episode

SC Framework: leave-one-out distribution of the counterfactuals

Dynamic treatment effect of PI: full donor pool vs leave-neighbours-out. Notes : The horizontal axis illustrates the number of years relative to the onset of the PI episode. For the MC estimator, the grey-shaded area represents the 90% confidence intervals obtained from the baseline estimates with full donor pool

SC Framework: dynamic treatment effects of PI episodes on GDP growth rate. Notes : The dashed line plots the GDP growth rate computed by recalibrating the SC framework on the log difference of GDP. The solid (dark) line depicts GDP growth rate computed by taking the year-on-year change of the baseline treatment effect. For the latter scenario, in each country, the observations start nine years before the onset of the PI episode since the growth rate in this case is computed post-SC estimation which was originally confined to 10 years pre-PI episode

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Zonda, J.M., Lin, CC. & Chang, MJ. On the economic costs of political instabilities: a tale of sub-Saharan Africa. Empir Econ 66 , 137–173 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-023-02452-4

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Americans’ Dismal Views of the Nation’s Politics

1. the biggest problems and greatest strengths of the u.s. political system, table of contents.

• The impact of partisan polarization
• Persistent concerns over money in politics
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• In their own words: Americans on the political system’s biggest problems
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• Are there clear solutions to the nation’s problems?
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• Feelings toward the federal government
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• Americans’ ratings of their House member, governor and local officials
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• Most characterize their party positively
• Quality of the parties’ ideas
• Influence in congressional decision-making
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• How much can voting affect the future direction of the country?
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• How much do elected officials care about people like me?
• What motivates people to run for office?
• Quality of recent political candidates
• In elections, is there usually at least one candidate who shares your views?
• What the public sees as most important in political candidates
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• Views of how well the parties represent people’s interests
• What if there were more political parties?
• Would more parties make solving problems easier or harder?
• How likely is it that an independent candidate will become president?
• Americans who feel unrepresented by the parties have highly negative views of the political system
• Views of the Electoral College
• Should the size of the U.S. House of Representatives change?
• Senate seats and population size
• Younger adults more supportive of structural changes
• Politics in a single word or phrase: An outpouring of negative sentiments
• Negative emotions prevail when Americans think about politics
• Americans say the tone of political debate in the country has worsened
• Which political topics get too much – and too little – attention?
• Majority of Americans find it stressful to talk politics with people they disagree with
• Acknowledgments

The public sees a number of specific problems with American politics. Partisan fighting, the high cost of political campaigns, and the outsize influence of special interests and lobbyists are each seen as characteristic of the U.S. political system by at least 84% of Americans.

Yet 63% also say that “ordinary Americans care about making the political system work well” is a good description of U.S. politics today. Still, when asked to describe a strength of the political system in their own words, more than half either say “nothing” (22%) or decline to give an answer (34%).

Americans view negative statements as better descriptions of the political system than positive ones

More than eight-in-ten adults say that each of the following is at least a somewhat good description of the U.S. political system today:

• Republicans and Democrats are more focused on fighting each other than on solving problems (86%);
• The cost of political campaigns makes it hard for good people to run for office (85%);
• Special interest groups and lobbyists have too much say in what happens in politics (84%).

About six-in-ten (63%) think ordinary Americans want to make the political system work well. This is the rare positive sentiment that a majority views as a good descriptor of the political system.

Fewer than half of adults hold the view that the government deserves more credit than it gets: Majorities say that “the federal government does more for ordinary Americans than people give it credit for” (59%) and “Congress accomplishes more than people give it credit for” (65%) are both bad descriptions of the political system.

Nearly seven-in-ten adults express frustration with the availability of unbiased information about politics: 68% say the statement “it is easy to find unbiased information about what is happening in politics” is not a good description of the political system.

And just 22% of Americans say that political leaders facing consequences for acting unethically is a good description of the political system. They are more than three times as likely to say that this is a bad description (76% say this).

Many critiques of the political system are bipartisan

Partisans have similar views of many of the descriptions of the political system included in the survey.

Overwhelming majorities in both parties think there is too much partisan fighting, campaigns cost too much, and lobbyists and special interests have too much say in politics. And just 24% of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents and 20% of Republicans and Republican leaners say that political leaders face consequences if they act unethically.

The widest partisan gap is over a description of the federal government. Democrats are roughly twice as likely as Republicans to say “the federal government does more for ordinary Americans than people give it credit for” (54% vs. 26%).

There is a narrower gap in views of Congress’ accomplishments: 37% of Democrats and 28% of Republicans say it accomplishes more than people give it credit for.

Democrats are also more likely to say, “It is easy to find unbiased information about what is happening in politics” (36% of Democrats and 25% of Republicans say this is a good description of the political system today), while Republicans are slightly more likely than Democrats to view ordinary Americans as wanting to make the political system work well (67% of Republicans and 61% of Democrats say this is a good description).

When asked to describe in their own words the biggest problem with the political system in the U.S. today, Americans point to a wide range of factors.

Negative characteristics attributed to politicians and political leaders are a common complaint: 31% of U.S. adults say politicians are the biggest problem with the system, including 15% who point to greed or corruption and 7% who cite dishonesty or a lack of trustworthiness.

The biggest problem, according to one woman in her 50s, is that politicians are “hiding the truth and fulfilling their own agendas.” Similarly, a man in his 30s says, “They don’t work for the people. They are too corrupt and busy filling their pockets.”

Explore more voices: The political system’s biggest problems

What do you see as the biggest problem with the political system in the U.S. today?

“An almost total lack of credibility and trust. Coupled with a media that’s so biased, that they’ve lost all objectivity.” –Man, 70s

“Lying about intentions or not following through with what elected officials said they would do.” –Woman, 20s

“Blind faith in political figures.” –Woman, 50s

“Our elected officials would rather play political games than serve the needs of their constituents.” –Woman, 50s

“Same politicians in office too long.” –Woman, 30s

“Extremism on both sides exploited by the mainstream media for ratings. It is making it impossible for both parties to work together.” –Man, 30s

“It has become too polarized. No one is willing to compromise or be moderate.” –Woman, 40s

“Too much money in politics coming from large corporations and special interest.” –Man, 30s

“The people have no say in important matters, we have NO representation at all. Our lawmakers are isolated and could care less what we want.” –Man, 60s

About two-in-ten adults cite deep divisions between the parties as the biggest problem with the U.S. political system, with respondents describing a lack of cooperation between the parties or among elected leaders in Washington.

“Both of the political parties are so busy trying to stop the other party, they are wasting their opportunities to solve the problems faced by our nation,” in the view of one man in his 70s.

Even as some blame polarization, others (10% of respondents) identify the other party as the system’s biggest problem. Some Republicans say that the biggest problem is “Democrats” while some Democrats simply say “Republicans.”

Smaller but substantial shares of adults name the media and political discourse (9%), the influence of money in politics (7%), government’s perceived failures (6%), specific policy areas and issues (6%) or problems with elections and voting (4%) as the biggest problem with the political system today.

Far fewer adults name a specific strength of the political system today when asked to describe the system’s biggest strength in their own words. More than half either say that the system lacks a biggest strength (22%) or decline to answer (34%). As one woman in her 60s writes, “I’m not seeing any strengths!”

Among those who do identify strengths of the U.S. political system, the structure of political institutions and the principles that define the constitutional order are named most frequently (by 12% of respondents). Many respondents specifically point to the Constitution itself or refer to the separation of powers or the checks and balances created by the Constitution.

A man in his 20s believes that the “separation of powers and federalism work pretty well,” while one in his 30s writes that the system’s greatest strength is “the checks and balances to make sure that monumental changes aren’t made unilaterally.”

Explore more voices: The political system’s biggest strengths

What do you see as the biggest strength of the U.S. political system today?

“Everyone getting a say; democracy.” –Woman, 40s

“The right to have your opinions heard.” –Man, 60s

“In spite of our differences, we are still a democracy, and I believe there are people within our government who still care and are interested in the betterment of our country.” –Woman, 50s

“The freedom of speech and religion” –Woman, 50s

“If we have fair, honest elections we can vote out the corruption and/or incompetent politicians.” –Man, 70s

“The Constitution.” –Man, 50s

“The checks and balances to control the power of any office. The voice of the people and the options to remove an official from office.” –Man, 60s

“New, younger voices in government.” –Woman, 40s

“If we can’t get more bipartisanship we’ll become weaker. Our biggest strength is our working together.” –Woman, 60s

“The way that every two years the people get to make their voice heard.” –Man, 30s

About one-in-ten (9%) refer to individual freedoms and related democratic values, while a similar share (8%) discuss the right to vote and the existence of free elections. A woman in her 70s echoes many similar comments when she points to “the possibility of change in upcoming elections.”

However, even some of the descriptions of positive characteristics of the system are couched in respondents’ doubts about the way the system is working today. One woman in her 50s adds a qualification to what she views as the system’s biggest strength, saying, “Theoretically every voter has a say.”

Smaller shares of the public point to the positive characteristics of some politicians (4%) or the positive characteristics of the American people (4%) as reasons for optimism.

The public remains roughly evenly split over whether there are clear solutions to the biggest issues facing the country. Half of Americans today say there are clear solutions to most of the big issues facing the country, while about as many (48%) say most big issues don’t have clear solutions.

There are relatively modest demographic and political differences in perceptions of whether the solutions to the nations’ problems are clear or not.

While both men and women are relatively divided on this question, women are 6 percentage points more likely to think the big issues facing the country don’t have clear solutions.

Race and ethnicity

While 43% of Hispanic adults and about half of Black (50%) and White (48%) adults say there aren’t clear solutions for most big issues, that rises to 62% among Asian adults.

Age differences on this question are modest, but those under 30 are slightly more likely than those 30 and older to say most big issues have clear solutions.

Partisanship and political engagement

Both Republicans and Democrats are relatively split on this question, though Republicans are slightly more likely to say there are clear solutions to most big issues.

Those with higher levels of political engagement are more likely to say there are clear solutions to most big issues facing the country.

About six-in-ten adults with high levels of political engagement (61%) say there are clear solutions to big issues today, compared with half of those with medium levels of engagement and 41% of those with lower engagement.

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