ANOVA: Analysis of variance.
If our aim is to quantify the association between an outcome and exposure, we can apply linear regression (assuming all assumptions are met, see Table 1 ). As outlined earlier, we need to consider possible effect modifiers and confounders. To assess for effect modification, we can do so by introducing an interaction term in the model. As a simple example, the model would contain the exposure variable, the possible effect modifier, and a multiplication term between the exposure and possible effect modifier (termed the interaction term). If the interaction term is statistically significant, we would conclude effect modification is present. If a variable is not an effect modifier, consideration for confounding is then checked. There exist different approaches for assessing confounding but the most widely used is the 10% rule. This rule states that a variable is a confounder if the regression coefficient for the exposure variable changes by more than 10% with the inclusion of the possible confounder in the model. A nice example of this can be seen in Ray et al. (2020). 16
Count data are the number of times a particular event occurs for each individual, taking non-negative integer values. In biomedical science, we most often look at count data over a period of time, creating an event rate (event count / period of time). The simplest analysis of these data involves calculating events per patient-year of follow-up. When conducting patient-year analyses in large populations, it is often acceptable to look at this statistic in aggregate (sum of total events in the population / sum of total patient-years at risk in the population). Confidence intervals can be calculated by assuming a Poisson distribution.
Statistical modeling of count data or event rates is common with a Poisson model. These models can adjust for confounding by other variables and incorporate interaction terms for effect modification. When a binary treatment variable is used with event rate as the outcome, incidence rate ratios (with confidence intervals) can be estimated from these models. The model can be extended to a zero inflated Poisson (ZIP) model or a negative binomial model when the standard Poisson model does not fit the data well. Population level analyses often look at disease incidence rates and ratios using these methods. 17 , 18 Recently, this type of statistic modeling is at the core of statistical methods used to calculate vaccine efficacy against COVID-19 in a highly impactful randomized trial. 19
Arguably, the simplest form of an outcome variable in clinical research is the binary variable for which every observation is classified in one of two groups (disease versus no disease, response versus no response, etc.). 20 We typically assume a binomial statistical distribution for this type of data. When the treatment variable is also binary, results can be analyzed by the simple analysis of the classic 2 × 2 table. From this table, we can estimate the proportion of responses, odds of response, or risk of response/disease within each treatment group. We then compare these estimates between treatment groups using differences or ratio measures. These include the difference in proportions, risk difference, odds ratios, and risk ratios (relative risk). Hypothesis testing around these estimates may utilize the chi-square test to assess the general association between the two variables, large sample asymptotic tests relying on normality under the central limit theorem, or exact tests that do not assume a specific statistical distribution.
Statistical models for binary outcomes can be constructed using logistic regression. In this way, the effect estimates (typically the odds ratio) can be adjusted for confounding by measured variables. These models typically rely on asymptotic normality for hypothesis testing but exact statistics are also available. The models can also assess effect modification through statistical interaction terms. An example of the classical 2 × 2 table can be referenced in Khan et al. 21 A typical application of logistic regression can be seen in Ray et al. 22 We have summarized methods for categorical data in Table 2 .
Summary of discrete data analyses and assumptions (all observations are independent).
Type of outcome variable | Outcome statistical distribution | Theoretical hypotheses | Assumptions | Commonly used point estimate | Commonly Used Effect estimate – | Common statistical methods |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Discrete | ||||||
One binary variable | Binomial | | One binary variable. | Proportion | Proportion | Z-test or binominal exact test |
Two binary variables | Binomial | | 1. One binary metric measured on two different samples. 2. Two samples are independent. | Proportions | Difference in proportions or Cohen’s h | Z-test |
H1 : OR ≠ 1 | 1. Two binary variables measured on same sample. 2. One variable measuring outcome. 3. One variable measuring exposure. | Odds | Odds ratio | Logistic regression | ||
H1 : RR ≠ 1 | 1. Two binary variables measured on same sample. 2. One variable measuring outcome. 3. One variable measuring exposure. | Risk | Risk ratio | Logistic, Poisson, or negative binomial regression | ||
Two discrete variables | No Assumption | | 1. Two variables measured on the same sample. 2. Each variable is measuring a different metric. | None | Cramer’s V or Phi | Chi-squared test, Fisher’s exact test (small sample sizes), or logistic regression |
Association analyses: modeling outcome as a function of one or more explanatory variables | ||||||
One binary variable | Binomial | or or H1 : ORi ≠ 1 | 1. Outcome variable is binary 2. Explanatory variables are independent 3. Explanatory variables are linearly associated with the log odds. | Odds | Odds ratio | Logistic regression |
One discrete variable with > 2 levels | Multinomial (ordered or unordered) | If outcome data are nominal, the assumptions are the same as binomial logistic regression. If outcome data are ordinal, the proportional odds assumption must be met in addition to binomial logistic regression assumptions. | Odds | Odds ratio | Multinomial logistic regression: generalized logit link for unordered and cumulative logit link for ordered | |
Counts and events per follow-up | Poisson or negative binomial | or or H1 : IRR ≠ 1 | 1. Outcome variable is positive integer counts following a Poisson or negative binomial distribution | Incidence rate | Incidence rate ratio | Poisson or negative binomial regression |
Time-to-event | No Distribution Assumed | | 1. Single discrete exploratory variable (with categories) 2. Censoring is not related to explanatory variables | 5-year survival | Difference in 5-year survival | Kaplan–Meier (Log-rank test) |
or or H1 : ≠ 1 | 1. Hazard remains constant over time (hazards are proportional assumption). 2. Explanatory variables are independent. 3. Explanatory variables are linearly associated with the log hazard. | None | Hazard ratio | Cox proportional hazards model |
Multinomial data are a natural extension of binary data such that it is a discrete variable with more than two levels. It follows that the extensions of logistic regression can be applied to estimate effects and adjust for effect modification and confounding. However, multinomial data can be nominal or ordinal. For nominal data, the order is of no importance and, therefore, the models use a generalized logit link. 23 This will select one category as a referent category and then perform a set of logistic regression models, each comparing one non-referent level to this referent level. For example, in Kane et al. , 24 they applied a multinomial logistic regression to model type of treatment (five categories) as a function of education level and other covariates. They select watchful waiting as the referent treatment. The analysis thus had four logistic regressions to report, respective of each of the other treatment categories compared to watchful waiting.
If the multinomial data are ordinal, we use a cumulative logit link in the regression model. This link will model the categories cumulatively and sequentially. 23 For example, suppose our outcome has three levels, 1, 2, and 3 and are representative of the number of treatments. Cumulative logit will conduct two logistic regressions: first, Modeling Category 1 versus Categories 2 and 3 (combined) and then Categories 1 and 2 (combined) versus Category 3. Because of the combining of categories, this assumes that the odds are proportional across categories. Thus, this assumption must be checked and satisfied before applying this model. Depending on the outcome, only one of the logistic models may be needed, such as in Bostwick et al. , 25 where their outcome was palliative performance status (low, moderate, and high) and the effects of cancer/non-cancer status. Here, they only reported high-performance status versus moderate and low combined as their outcome.
Time-to-event data, often called survival data, compare the time from a baseline point to the potential occurrence of an outcome between groups. 26 These data are unique as a statistical outcome because they involve a binary component (event occurred or event did not occur) and the time to event occurrence or last follow-up. Both the occurrence of event and the time it took to occur are of interest. These outcomes are most frequently analyzed with two common statistical methodologies, the Kaplan–Meier method and the Cox proportional hazards model. 26
The Kaplan–Meier method allows for the estimation of a survival distribution of observed data in the presence of censored observations and does not assume any statistical distribution for the data. 26 , 27 In this way, knowledge that an individual did not experience an event up to a certain time point, but is still at risk, is incorporated into the estimates. For example, knowing an individual survived 2 months after a therapy and was censored is less information than knowing an individual survived 2 years after a therapy and was censored. The method assumes that the occurrence of censoring is not associated with the exposure variable. In addition to estimating the entire curve over time, the Kaplan–Meier plot allows for the estimation of the survival probability to a certain point in time, such as “5-year” survival. Survival curves are typically estimated for each group of interest (if exposure is discrete), shown together on a plot. The log-rank test is often used to test for a statistically significant difference in two or more survival curves. 26 An analogous method, known as Cumulative Incidence, takes a similar approach to the non-parametric Kaplan–Meier method, but starts from zero and counts events as they occur, with estimates increasing with time (rather than decreasing). 26 Cumulative Incidence analyses can also be adjusted for competing risks, which occur when subjects experience a different event during the follow-up time that precludes them from experiencing the event of primary interest. In the presence of competing risks, Cumulative Incidence curves can be compared using Gray’s test. 26
Time-to-event data can also be analyzed using statistical models. The most common statistical model is the Cox proportional hazards model. 28 From this model, we can estimate hazard ratios with confidence intervals for comparing the risk of the event occurring between two groups. 26 Multiple variable models can be fit to incorporate interaction terms or can be adjust for confounding (the 10% rule can be applied to the hazard ratio estimate). Although the Cox model does not assume a statistical distribution for the outcome variable, it does assume that the ratio of effect between two treatment groups is constant across time (i.e., proportional hazards). Therefore, one hazard ratio estimate applies to all time points in the study. Extensions of this model are available to allow for more flexibility, with additional complexity in interpretation. Examples of standard applications of the Kaplan–Meier method and Cox proportional hazards models can be seen in recent papers by Mok et al. 29 and Aparicio et al. 30
With the exception of time-to-event data, all of the statistical modeling techniques described above can be classified as some form of generalized linear model (GLM). 20 Modern statistical methods utilize GLMs as a broader class of statistical model. In the GLM, the outcome variable can take on different forms (continuous, categorical, multinomial, count, etc) and it is mathematically transformed using a link function. In fact, the statistical modeling methods we have discussed here are each a special case of a GLM. The GLM can accommodate multiple covariates that could be either continuous or categorical. The GLM framework is often a useful tool for understanding the interconnectedness of common statistical methods. For the interested reader, an elegant description of the most common GLMs and how they interrelate is given in Chapter 5 of Categorical Data Analysis by Alan Agresti. 20
While statistical significance is necessary to demonstrate that an observed result is not likely to have occurred by chance alone, it is not sufficient to insure a valid result. Bias can arise in clinical research from many causes, including misclassification of the exposure, misclassification of the outcome, confounding, missing data, and selection of the study cohort. 10 , 31 Care should be taken at the study design phase to reduce potential bias as much as possible. To this end, application of proper research methodology is essential. Confounding can sometimes be corrected through statistical adjustment after collection of the data, if the confounding factor is properly measured in the study. 10 , 31 All of these issues are outside the scope of basic statistics and this current summary. However, good clinical research studies should consider both statistical methodology and potential threats to validity from bias. 10 , 31
In this review, we have discussed five of the most common types of outcome data in clinical studies, including continuous, count, binary, multinomial, and time-to-event data. Each data type requires specific statistical methodology, specific assumptions, and consideration of other important factors in data analysis. However, most fall within the overarching GLM framework. In addition, the study design is an important factor in the selection of the appropriate method. Statistical methods can be applied for effect estimation, hypothesis testing, and confidence interval estimation. All of the methods discussed here can be applied using commonly available statistical analysis software without excessive customized programming.
In addition to the common types of data discussed here, other statistical methods are sometimes necessary. We have not discussed in detail situations where data are correlated or clustered. These scenarios typically violate the independence assumption required by many methods. Common subsets of these include longitudinal analyses with multiple observations collected across time and time series data which also require specialized techniques. We have also not covered situations where outcome data are multidimensional, such as the case for research in genetics. The analysis of large amounts of genetic information often relies on the basic methods discussed here, but special considerations and adapted methodology are needed to account for the large numbers of hypothesis tests conducted. One consideration is multiple comparisons. When a single sample is tested more than one time, this increases the chance of making either type I or II error. 32 This means we incorrectly reject or fail to reject the null hypothesis given the truth at the population level. Because of this increased likelihood of error, the significance level must be adjusted. These types of adjustments are not discussed here. Moreover, this overview is not comprehensive, and many additional statistical methodologies are available for specific situations.
In this work, we have focused our discussion on statistical analysis. Another key element in clinical research is a priori statistical design of trials. Appropriate selection of the trial design, including both epidemiologic and statistical design, allows data to be collected in a way that valid statistical comparisons can be made. Power and sample size calculations are key design elements that rely on many of the statistical principals discussed above. Investigators are encouraged to work with experienced statisticians early in the trial design phase, to ensure appropriate statistical considerations are made.
In summary, statistical methods play a critical role in clinical research. A vast array of statistical methods are currently available to handle a breath of data scenarios. Proper application of these techniques requires intimate knowledge of the study design and data collected. A working knowledge of common statistical methodologies and their similarities and differences is vital for producers and consumers of clinical research.
Author’ Contributions: All authors participated in the design, interpretation of the studies, writing and review of the manuscript.
Declaration of conflicting interests: The author(s) declared no potential conflicts of interest with respect to the research, authorship, and/or publication of this article.
Funding: The author(s) received no financial support for the research, authorship, and/or publication of this article.
Supplemental material: Supplemental material for this article is available online.
Insight from top 3 papers.
Statistical treatment refers to the application of statistical methods and techniques to analyze and interpret data in various fields. It involves using statistical tools to process and analyze data, make inferences, and draw conclusions. Statistical treatment plays a crucial role in medical decision-making, where it is used for diagnosis, treatment, and prognosis. It helps in improving medical outcomes by providing tools such as probability measurement, medical indicators, reference ranges, scoring systems, and various statistical measures like odds ratio, sensitivity, specificity, and predictivities. Statistical treatment is also important in the field of fluid dynamics, specifically in the processing of data acquired via image velocimetry. It involves basic statistical treatment, frequency and modal analysis, as well as advanced research topics like multiscale modal decompositions and nonlinear dimensionality reduction. [??] [??] [??]
Title | Insight |
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Weighted mean plays a crucial role in the statistical treatment of data by providing a more accurate representation of the data when certain observations carry more significance than others. This is particularly relevant in scenarios where datasets have biases that need correction through importance weighting methods . Weighted mean is essential in constructing weighted datasets to ensure uniqueness of scores and achieve desired cumulative statistics, simplifying the analysis process . In complex survey analysis, alternative analysis weights based on the weighted mean can enhance the efficiency of model-parameter estimates while maintaining consistency in regression models . Moreover, in situations where individual cells of a dataset have assigned weights, the use of cellwise weighted likelihood functions, such as the weighted average, facilitates multivariate statistical methods like maximum likelihood estimation and covariance matrix estimation .
Statistics play a crucial role in research by providing methods to collect, process, interpret, and draw conclusions from data, making it an indispensable tool in various fields. It aids in identifying relationships within collected data, enhancing decision-making processes through hypothesis testing. Statistics help in analyzing data collected from research samples to draw conclusions about entire populations, enabling less biased decision-making and establishing causality. In foreign policy analysis, statistical techniques like regression analysis are commonly used to investigate relationships between key variables and assess their significance. Overall, statistics in research enables professionals to estimate processes efficiently, manage data effectively, and gain better insights into scientific proposals, making it a fundamental element in research processes.
The purpose of statistical treatment is to provide decision-makers with valuable information for selecting treatments. Statistical treatment involves using quantitative data collection procedures and technological tools to analyze and interpret data effectively. It aids in making accurate predictions based on available data, such as determining the best treatment type, dosage, and expected recovery time for patients. Statistical treatment also plays a crucial role in planning clinical trials by defining effects, determining sample sizes, and conducting statistical analyses to ensure the success of experimental treatments. By utilizing statistical methods like risk evaluation and minimax-regret criteria, statistical treatment helps in choosing optimal treatment rules and sample designs. Overall, statistical treatment enhances decision-making processes by providing insights derived from rigorous data analysis and interpretation.
Statistical treatment for chapter 3 involves Bayesian estimation of parameters in feed-forward neural networks, addressing challenges like lack of interpretability due to neural networks being perceived as black boxes . This lack of transparency extends to parameters like neuron numbers and connection weights, affecting the interpretation of Bayesian frameworks. Techniques like hierarchical priors, noninformative priors, and hybrid priors are utilized to express prior knowledge or lack thereof on parameter distributions . Additionally, model building approaches such as model selection and model averaging are discussed, emphasizing the distinction between modeling for understanding relationships and prediction for output accuracy . Efficient search of the model space using algorithms like Markov Chain Monte Carlo and reversible-jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo is crucial for model selection and averaging .
Statistical treatments commonly used in quantitative research design include log-rank statistical tests and proportional hazards models for comparing survival curves and estimating treatment benefits . Tables and figures are also commonly used to present specific data or statistical analysis results, providing visual understanding and interpretation of the statistical results . Alternating treatments designs (ATDs) utilize visual analysis, visual structured criteria (VSC), and a comparison involving actual and linearly interpolated values (ALIV) for analyzing single-case experimental designs . Additionally, statistical solutions, such as time-parameterized probability measures, have been proposed as a framework for global solutions and uncertainty quantification in quantitative research design .
The project manager plays a crucial role in shaping organizational culture during project initiation, influencing project success through effective communication, cultural awareness, and stakeholder management. Their competencies are vital in navigating the complexities of organizational dynamics. ## Influence on Communication and Clarity - Project managers facilitate clear communication, which is essential for aligning project goals with organizational culture. Effective communication management enhances project success by ensuring that all stakeholders are informed and engaged. - Clarity in project scope, guided by the project manager, helps mitigate misunderstandings that can arise from cultural differences within the team. ## Cultural Awareness and Adaptation - Project managers must assess and adapt to the organizational culture, recognizing that different cultural layers impact project management practices. This adaptability is crucial for international projects where cultural discrepancies may exist. - Understanding the unique cultural elements of an organization allows project managers to tailor their approaches, fostering a collaborative environment that aligns with organizational values. ## Continuous Improvement and Stakeholder Management - As improvement agents, project managers are expected to contribute to the continuous enhancement of organizational culture, promoting practices that support project success. - Effective stakeholder management, a key responsibility of project managers, ensures that diverse perspectives are integrated, enhancing the project's alignment with organizational culture. While the project manager's role is pivotal, it is essential to recognize that organizational culture is also shaped by broader systemic factors, including leadership styles and organizational policies, which can sometimes limit the project manager's influence.
Continuous Security Assurance (CSA) is essential in smart homes for effective monitoring, detection, and quantification of security posture due to the increasing complexity and interconnectivity of IoT devices. This approach ensures that security measures evolve alongside emerging threats. ## Monitoring and Detection - CSA leverages IoT data analytics to enhance security monitoring, enabling proactive identification of threats through real-time data analysis. - Continuous authentication frameworks utilize contextual information to validate user access, significantly reducing unauthorized access risks. ## Security Posture Quantification - Quantitative Security Assurance (SA) metrics are crucial for evaluating the security posture of smart home systems, allowing organizations to assess vulnerabilities and strengths systematically. - A security-enabled safety assurance framework integrates safety and security measures, ensuring that operational data is continuously analyzed to maintain a safe environment. While CSA is vital for maintaining security in smart homes, it is also important to consider the potential for over-reliance on automated systems, which may lead to complacency in human oversight and decision-making.
The comparison of generative AI's creative output to human creativity reveals a complex interplay of originality and novelty. While generative AI can enhance individual creativity, it often leads to a reduction in collective diversity and novelty in creative outputs. ## Individual Creativity Enhancement - Generative AI tools, such as text-to-image models, have been shown to increase individual creative productivity by 25% and improve the perceived quality of outputs, especially among less creative individuals. - AI-assisted artists who explore novel ideas tend to produce more favorably evaluated artworks, indicating that human input remains crucial for achieving higher creativity levels. ## Collective Novelty Reduction - Despite enhancing individual creativity, generative AI outputs tend to be more similar to each other, leading to a decrease in collective novelty. - Studies indicate that reliance on AI can result in design fixation, where users produce fewer and less original ideas compared to traditional methods. In contrast, some argue that human creativity is still paramount, as it guides AI in producing innovative outputs. The synergy between human creativity and AI could foster new creative workflows, suggesting that collaboration rather than competition may define the future of creative expression.
Watershed management is crucial for sustainable development, as it integrates ecological health with socioeconomic benefits. Effective management ensures the preservation of vital resources, mitigates environmental risks, and enhances community well-being. Below are key reasons why watershed management is essential: ## Socioeconomic Benefits - Watersheds provide essential resources such as potable water, irrigation, and energy, which are vital for agriculture and industry. - Proper management enhances income-generating opportunities for local communities, thereby improving their overall quality of life. ## Environmental Protection - Effective watershed management helps in flood protection, sediment control, and biodiversity conservation, which are critical in the face of climate change. - It promotes sustainable land use practices that protect soil and water resources, ensuring long-term ecological balance. ## Integrated Resource Management - Watersheds serve as management units for interdependent natural resources, facilitating coordinated approaches to land and water conservation. - The integration of technology in watershed management can enhance resource efficiency and sustainability. While the benefits of watershed management are clear, challenges such as resource conflicts and climate variability must be addressed to ensure its effectiveness.
Public Finance Management (PFM) Theory faces several criticisms that highlight its limitations and the need for a more nuanced understanding of public budgeting and finance. ## Conceptual Limitations - PFM struggles with a clear theoretical framework, often conflating public and private sectors, which complicates its application in real-world scenarios. - The reliance on rationalist paradigms in budgeting has led to overly technical explanations that fail to address the complexities of public finance, resulting in incomplete theories. ## Educational Deficiencies - There is a significant pedagogic deficit in public administration education regarding PFM, with courses lacking a coherent curriculum, leading to inconsistencies in knowledge and practice among public administrators. ## Evolving Perspectives - The traditional focus on public finance has shifted towards public economics, emphasizing the need for a broader understanding of public expenditures and their implications for market failures. While these critiques underscore the challenges within PFM Theory, they also suggest pathways for its evolution, advocating for a more integrated approach that encompasses diverse theoretical insights and practical applications.
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On-line version issn 0375-1562 print version issn 0011-8516, s. afr. dent. j. vol.71 n.6 johannesburg jul. 2016.
COMMUNICATION
Statistical terms Part 1: The meaning of the MEAN, and other statistical terms commonly used in medical research
L M Sykes I ; F Gani II ; Z Vally III
I BSc, BDS, MDent (Pros). Department of Prosthodontics, University of Pretoria II BDS, MSc. Department of Prosthodontics, University of Pretoria III BDS, MDent (Pros). Department of Prosthodontics, University of Pretoria
Correspondence
INTRODUCTION
A letter was recently sent to members of a research committee which read as follows: "Dear Members. We have 27 protocols to review and will divide them between all members. Each protocol will be evaluated by two people, thus you will all have to evaluate ±9 protocols"
The response from the resident statistician read: "Hello. I would like to correct this common statement highlighted above. Although it is a colloquial statement, it should be corrected among members. It is preferred to state that "each will evaluate between 7-11 protocols or 9±2 (7-11 protocols)."
This amusing, yet technically correct, anecdote brings home the realization that many researchers, supervisors, reviewers and clinicians do not fully understand many research concepts and statistical terms, nor the significance (non-statistically speaking) behind them. This is the first of a planned series of papers which aim to explain, clarify, and simplify a number of these apparently esoteric principles. With that objective, the series could help future researchers improve their study designs, as well as empower their readers with the knowledge needed to critically evaluate any ensuing literature. The series will begin with definitions and explanations of statistical terms, and then will deal with experimental designs and levels of evidence.
The information and layout of Paper One is based on notes from the University of Barotseland 1 and on the work of Sch-oeman. 2 However, we recognise that the human mind responds better to stories and illustrations than to numbers and statistics. For this reason the paper has been interspersed with many "Quotes and anecdotes to engage and amuse the reader, and help promote their memory", referenced by name where possible (Steven Pinker 3 ).
Scientific research refers to the "systematic technique for the advancement of knowledge and consists of developing a theory that may or may not be proven true when subject to empirical methods." 4 It should have an appropriate experimental design that produces objective data and valid results. These should be accurately analyzed and reported, so that they cannot be erroneously or ambiguously interpreted. 4 This of course is in direct contrast to the satirical remark of Evan Esar who defined statistics as The science of producing unreliable facts from reliable figures". 3 Classic research presupposes that a specific question can be answered, and then endeavours to do so by using a proper experimental design and following a step-wise approach of defining the problem (usually based on some observation), formulating a hypothesis (an educated guess to try to explain the problem / phenomenon), and then collecting and analyzing the data to prove or disprove the hypothesis.
This refers to any facts, observations, and information that come from investigations, and is the foundation upon which new knowledge is built. To paraphrase Author Co-nan Doyle "A theory remains a theory until it is backed up by data." 5 Data can be either quantitative or qualitative.
1.1 Quantitative data is information about quantities that can be measured and written down in numbers (e.g. test score, weight).
1.2 Qualitative data is also called categorical or frequency data, and cannot be expressed in terms of numbers. Items are grouped according to some common property, after which the number of members per group are recorded (e.g. males/females, vehicle type).
In research, the target population includes all of those entities from which the researcher wishes to draw conclusions. However, it is impractical to try to conduct research on an entire population and for this reason only a small portion of the population is studied, i.e. a sample. The inclusion and exclusion criteria will help define and narrow down the target population (in human research). Sampling refers to the process of selecting research subjects from the population of interest in such a way that they are representative of the whole population.
2.1 The sample population is that small selection from the whole who are included in the research. Inferential statistics seek to make predictions about a population based on the results observed in a sample of that population.
2.2 Sample size refers to the number of patients / test specimens that finish the study and not the number that entered it. When determining sample size, most researchers would want to keep this number as low as possible for reasons of practicality, material costs, time, and availability of facilities and patients. However, the lower limit will also depend on the estimated variation between subjects. Where there is great variation, a larger sample number will be needed. Statistical analysis always takes into consideration the sample size. As Joseph Stalin put it, "A single death is a tragedy; a million deaths is a statistic." 5
2.3 Non-responders refers to those persons who refuse to take part in the study, who do not comply with study protocol, or who do not complete the entire study. Their non-participation could result in an element of bias, and can only be ignored if their reasons for refusal will not affect the interpretation of the findings.
2.4 Sampling methods are divided into nonprobability and
probability sampling. In the former, not every member of the population has a chance of being selected, while in the latter, they all do have an equal chance.
2.4.1 Nonprobability
a) Convenience sampling refers to taking persons as they arrive on the scene and is continued until the full desired sample number has been obtained. It is NOT representative of the population.
b) Quota sampling is similar to convenience sampling except that those sampled are selected in the same ratio as they are found in the general population.
2.4.2 Probability
a) Random sampling is when the study subjects are chosen completely by chance. At each draw, every member of the population has the same chance of being selected as any other person. Tables of random digits are available to ensure true randomness.
b) stratified random samples are constructed by first dividing a heterogeneous population into strata and then taking random samples from within each stratum. Strata may be chosen to reflect only one or more aspects of that population (e.g. gender, age, ethnicity).
c) systematic sampling involves having the population in a predetermined sequence e.g. names in alphabetical order. A starting point is then picked randomly and the person whose name falls in that position is taken as the first to be sampled.
d) Cluster sampling is when the population is first divided into natural subgroups, often based on their being geographically close to each other e.g. houses in a street, staff in one hospital. A number of clusters are then randomly sampled.
2.5 Generalization is an attempt to extend the results of a sample to a population and can only be done when the sample is truly representative of the entire population. Generalizing the results obtained from a sample to the broad population must take into account sample variation. Even if the sample selected is completely random, there is still a degree of variance within the population that will require your results from within a sample to include a margin of error. The greater the sample size, the more representative it tends to be of a population as a whole. Thus the margin of error falls and the confidence level rises.
2.6 Bias is a threat to a sample's validity, and prevents impartial consideration. It can come in many forms and can stem from many sources such as the researcher, the participants, study design or sample. The most common bias is due to the selection of subjects. For example, if subjects self-select into a sample group, then the results are no longer externally valid, as the type of person who wants to be in a study is not necessarily similar to the population that one is seeking to draw inferences about. Examples of bias could be: Cognitive bias, which refers to human factors, such as decisions being made on perceptions rather than evidence; Sample bias, where the sample is skewed so that certain specimens or persons are unrepresented, or have been specifically selected in order to prove a hypothesis. 4
2.7 Prevalence refers to the proportion of cases present in a population at a specified point in time, hence it explains how widespread is the disease. (Memory Point - remember all the P's).
2.8 Incidence is the number of new cases that occurred over a specific time, and gives an indication about the risk of contracting a disease. 6
3. EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN
Design relates to the manner in which the data will be obtained and analyzed. For this reason, consultation with a statistician is crucial during the preparation phases of any research. Prior to embarking on the study one must already have determined the target population, sampling methods, sample size, data collection methods, and statistical tests that will be used to analyze the findings. Many studies fail or produce invalid results because this crucial step was neglected during the planning stages. As William James commented "We must be careful not to confuse data with the abstractions we use to analyse them". Light et al were more blunt in stating "You can't fix by analysis what you bungled by design". 5
3.1 Descriptive statistics are used for studies that explore observed data. In descriptive statistics, it often helpful to divide data into equal-sized subsets. For example, dividing a list of individuals sorted by height into two parts - the tallest and the shortest, results in two quantiles, with the median height value as the dividing line. Quartiles separate data set into four equal-sized groups, deciles into 10 groups etc. 1
3.2 inferential statistics are used when you don't have access to the whole population or it is not feasible to measure all the data. Smaller samples are then taken and inferential statistics are used to make generalizations about the whole group from which the sample was drawn e.g. "Receiving your college degree increases your lifetime earnings by 50%" is an inferential statistic. 1 A word of caution, one has to be very clear of the meaning and interpretation of results presented as percentages. Consider the issue of percentages versus percentage points - they are not the same thing. For example, "if 40 out of 100 homes in a distressed suburb have mortgages, the rate is 40%. If a new law allows 10 homeowners to refinance, now only 30 mortgages are troubled. The new rate is 30%, a drop of 10 percentage points (40 - 30 = 10). This is not 10% less than the old rate, in fact, the decrease is 25% (10 / 40 = 0.25 = 25%)". 4 Another classic example of mis-representation of data was a recent survey on smoking habits of final year medical students. There was only one Indian student in the class who also happened to be a smoker. The resulting report declared that "100% of Indian students smoke". In the words of Henry Clay, one must still bear in mind that "Statistics are no substitute for judgement". 5
I n all research, a certain amount of variability will occur when humans are measuring objects or observing phenomena. This will depend on the accuracy of the measuring tool, and the manner in which it is used by the operator on each successive occasion. Thus, error does not mean a mistake, but rather it describes the variability in measurement in the study. The amount of error must be recognized, delineated, and taken into account in order to give true meaning to the data. When humans are involved, the amount of error can be defined as inter-operator (differences between different operators), or intra-operator (differences when performed by the same operator at different times). To overcome this, a certain number of objects are measured many times and by different people to detect the variation. This will then set the limits as to how accurate the results will be. 4
3.4 Accuracy, Precision, Reliability and Validity
a) Accuracy is a measure of how close measurements are to the true value.
b) Precision is the degree to which repeated measurements will produce the same results (or how close the measures are to each other).
c) Reliability is the degree to which a method produces the same results (consistency of the results) when it is used at different times, under different circumstances, by either the same or multiple observers. It can be tested by conducting inter-observer or intra-observer studies to determine error rates. Low inter-observer variation (or error) indicates high reliability. 4 The research must test what is it supposed to test, and must ensure adequacy and appropriateness of the interpretation and application of the results.
Results can have low accuracy but high precision and vice versa, which impact on the validity and reliability. An example to illustrate this would be aiming an arrow at the centre of a target. If all arrows are close together and in the centre of the target you have high accuracy and precision ( Figure 1a ). Results are then considered valid and reliable. If all arrows are both far away from the centre, and spread out, there is low accuracy, low precision. Results are neither valid nor reliable ( Figure 1b ). Lastly, if the arrows are all far off the centre but still all close to each other, it indicates that a mistake has been made, but the same mistake is made each time. Thus, there is low accuracy but high precision, and the results are not valid, despite being reliable ( Figure 1c ). 7,8
d) Validity refers to how appropriate and adequate the test is for that specific purpose. It also considers how correctly the results are interpreted and subsequently used.
A note on sensitivity and specificity.
Sensitivity and specificity are used as statistical measures to determine the effectiveness of a medical diagnostics. Sensitivity is a measure of the number of true positives and is calculated from the formula [true positive/true positive + false negative], while specificity is a measure of the amount of true negatives and is calculated by [true negative/true negative + false positive].
4. VARIABLE
This is the property of an object or event that can take on different values. For example, college major is a variable that takes on values like mathematics, computer science, English, psychology. 1
4.1 Discrete Variable has a limited number of values e.g. gender (male or female)
4.2 Continuous Variable can take on many different values anywhere between the lowest and highest points on the measurement scale.
4.3 Dependent Variable is that variable in which the researcher is interested, but is not under his/her control. It is observed and measured in response to the independent variable.
4.4 Independent Variable is a variable that is manipulated, measured, or selected by the researcher as an antecedent (precursor) condition to an observed behaviour. In a hypothesized cause-and-effect relationship, the independent variable is the cause and the dependent variable is the outcome or effect.
5. MEASURES OF CENTRE
Plotting data in a frequency distribution shows the general shape of the distribution and gives a general sense of how the numbers are bunched. Several statistics can be used to represent the "centre" of the distribution. These statistics are commonly referred to as measures of central tendency. 1
5.1 Mean (average) - is the most common measure of central tendency and refers to the average value of a group of numbers. Add up all the figures, divide by the number of values, and that is the average or mean It is calculated from the formula ΣΧ / N. [The sum all the scores in the distribution ( ΣΧ ) divided by the total number of scores (N)]. If you subtract each value in the distribution from the mean and then sum all of these deviation scores, the result will be zero (* see below). As one comic put it " Whenever I read statistical reports, I try to imagine the unfortunate Mr Average Person who has 0.66 children, 0.032 cars and 0.046 TVs". 3
5.2 Median - is the score that divides the distribution into halves; half of the scores are above the median and half are below it when the data are arranged in numerical order. It is the central value, and can be useful if there is an extremely high or low value in a collection of values. The median is also referred to as the score at the 50 th percentile in the distribution. The median location of N numbers can be found by the formula (N + 1) / 2. When N is an odd number, the formula yields an integer that represents the value in a numerically ordered distribution corresponding to the median location. (For example, in the distribution of numbers (3 1 5 4 9 9 8) the median location is (7 + 1) / 2 = 4. When applied to the ordered distribution (1 3 4 5 8 9 9), the value 5 is the median, three scores are above 5 and three are below 5. If there were only 6 values (1 3 4 5 8 9), the median location is (6 + 1) / 2 = 3.5. In this case the median is half-way between the 3 rd and 4 th scores (4 and 5) or 4.5.
5.3 Mode - is the most frequent or common score in the distribution, and is the point or value of Χ that corresponds to the highest point on the distribution. If the highest frequency is shared by more than one value, the distribution is said to be multimodal, and will be reflected by peaks at two different points in the distribution.
6. MEASURES OF SPREAD
Although the average value gives information about how scores are centred in the distribution, the mean, median, and mode do not help much when interpreting those statistics. Measures of variability provide information about the degree to which individual scores are clustered about, or deviate from the average value in a distribution. 1
6.1 Range is the difference between the highest and lowest score in a distribution. It is not often used as the sole measure of variability because it is based solely on the most extreme scores in the distribution and does not reflect the pattern of variation within a distribution.
a) Interquartile Range (IQR) provides a measure of the spread of the middle 50% of the scores. The IQR is defined as the 75 th percentile - the 25 th percentile. The interquartile range plays an important role in the graphical method known as the boxplot. The advantage of using the IQR is that it is easy to compute and extreme scores in the distribution have much less impact. However, it suffers as a measure of variability because it discards too much data. Nevertheless, researchers want to study variability while eliminating scores that are likely to be accidents. The boxplot allows for this for this distinction and is an important tool for exploring data.
6.2 Variance is a measure based on the deviations of individual scores from the mean. As noted in the definition of the mean (5.1 above), simply summing the deviations will result in a value of 0. To get around this problem the variance is based on squared deviations of scores about the mean. When the deviations are squared, the rank order and relative distance of scores in the distribution is preserved while negative values are eliminated. Then to control for the number of subjects in the distribution, the sum of the squared deviations is divided by n (population) or by n - 1 (sample). The formula for variance is thus s 2 = Σ ( χ - Χ ) 2 /(n-1). The result is the average of the sum of the squared deviations and it is called the variance.
6.3 standard deviation provides insight into how much variation there is within a group of values. It measures the deviation (difference) from the group's mean (average). The standard deviation (s or σ ) is the positive square root of the variance. The variance is a measure in squared units and has little meaning with respect to the data. Thus, the standard deviation is a measure of variability expressed in the same units as the data. The standard deviation is very much like a mean or an "average" of these deviations. In a normal (symmetric and mound-shaped) distribution, about two-thirds of the scores fall between +1 and -1 standard deviations from the mean and the standard deviation is approximately 1/4 of the range in small samples (N< 30) and 1/5 to 1/6 of the range in large samples (N> 100).
Standard deviation and variance are both measures of variability. The variance describes how much each value in the data set deviates from the mean (i.e. the spread of the responses), and is a squared value. The standard deviation also describes variability and is defined as the square root of the variance. This allows for a description of the variability in the same units as the data. A low SD will mean that the points of data are close to the mean, and a high SD indicates that the data is spread over a wide range of values. The SD is also used to describe the margin of error in the statistical analysis. This is usually twice the SD, typically described by the 95% confidence level. Confidence intervals consist of a range of values (interval) that act as good estimates of the unknown population parameter. After a sample is taken, the population parameter is either in the interval or not. The desired level of confidence is set by the researcher beforehand, for example 90%, 95%, 99%. If a corresponding hypothesis test is performed, the confidence level is the complement of the level of significance, i.e. a 95% confidence interval reflects a significance level of 0.05. Greater levels of variance yield larger confidence intervals, and hence less precise estimates of the parameter. Certain factors may affect the confidence interval size including size of sample, level of confidence, and population variability. A larger sample size normally will lead to a better estimate of the population parameter.
7. measures of shape
For distributions summarizing data from continuous measurement scales, statistics can be used to describe how the distribution rises and drops. 1
7.1 Symmetric refers to distributions that have the same shape on both sides of the centre are called symmetric. A symmetric distribution with only one peak is referred to as a normal distribution.
7.2 Skewness refers to the degree of asymmetry in a distribution. Asymmetry often reflects extreme scores in a distribution.
a) Positively skewed is when the distribution has a tail extending out to the right (larger numbers). In this case, the mean is greater than the median reflecting the fact that the mean is sensitive to each score in the distribution and is subject to large shifts when the sample is small and contains extreme scores. b) Negatively skewed is when the distribution has an extended tail pointing to the left (smaller numbers) and reflects bunching of numbers in the upper part of the distribution with fewer scores at the lower end of the measurement scale.
7.3 Kurtosis has a specific mathematical definition, but generally, it refers to how scores are concentrated in the centre of the distribution, the upper and lower tails (ends), and the shoulders (between the centre and tails) of a distribution. 6
8. the hypothesis
A hypothesis is an assumption about an unknown fact. Donald Rumsfeld may have been trying to explain this when he said "We know there are known knowns; these are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns - the ones we don't know we don't know". 5 Most studies explore the relationship between two variables, for example, that prenatal exposure to pesticides is associated with lower birth weight. This is called the alternative hypothesis. The null hypothesis (Ho) is the opposite of the stated hypothesis (i.e. there is no relationship in the data, or the treatment did not have any effect). Well-designed studies seek to disprove the Ho, in this case, that prenatal pesticide exposure is not associated with lower birth weight.
Tests of the results determine the probability of seeing such results if the Ho were true. The p-value indicates how unlikely this would be, or helps determine the amount of evidence needed to demonstrate that the results more than likely did not occur by chance. It describes the probability of observing results if the null hypothesis is true. P value describes the statistical significance of the data, and is set at an arbitrary value. These are usually set with a cut-off point of 0.05 (5%) or 0.01 (1%). E.g. data with a p value of 0.01 means there is only a 1% chance of obtaining that same result if there was no real effect of the experiment (a 1% chance that the null hypothesis is true). If the Ho can be rejected, then the test will be statistically 'significant' NB. Significant is a statistical term and does not mean important!
9. correlation
This refers to the association between variables, particularly where they move together.
9.1 Positive correlation means that as one variable rises or falls, the other does as well (e.g. caloric intake and weight).
9.2 Negative correlation indicates that two variables move in opposite directions (e.g. vehicle speed and travel time).
9.3 Causation must not be confused with correlation. Causation is when a change in one variable alters another, but causation flows in only ONE direction. It is also known as cause and effect. E.g. Sunrise causes an increase in air temperature, in addition sunlight is positively correlated with increased temperature. However, the reverse is not true - increased temperature does not cause sunrise.
a) Regression analysis is a way to determine if there is or is not a correlation between two (or more) variables and how strong any correlation may be. It usually involves plotting data points on an X/Y axis, then looking for the average causal effect. This means looking at how the graph's dots are distributed and establishing a trend line. Again, correlation is not necessarily causation. While causation is sometimes easy to prove, frequently it can often be difficult because of confounding variables (unknown factors that affect the two variables being studied). Again, once causation has been established, the factor that drives change (in the above example, sunlight) is the independent variable. The variable that is driven is the dependent variable (see point 4 above).
CONCLUSIONS
Understanding commonly used statistical terms should help clinicians decipher and understand research data analysis, and equip them with the knowledge needed to analyze results more critically. Perhaps then, the old adage of "All readers can read, but not all who can read are readers" will no longer be true of those reading the SADJ.
1. University of Barotseland, Statistics - Introduction to Basic Concepts, in bobhall.tamu.edu/FiniteMath/Introduction.html . 2014. [ Links ]
2. Schoeman, H. Biostatistics for the Health Sciences, University of Medunsa, Editor. 2003: South Africa. p. 78-91. [ Links ]
3. Wikipedia. http://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/keywords/statistics.html 2015. [ Links ]
4. Senn, D., Weems, RA., Manual of Forensic Odontology. 5th ed., ed. C. Press. 1997. Chapter 3. [ Links ]
5. Light, R., Singer, JD., Willett, JB. You can't fix by analysis what you bungled by design. Course materials, quotes, in https://advanceddataanalytics.net/quotes/ . 2014. [ Links ]
6. Wikimedia. Statistical terms used in research studies; a primer for media. 2015: journalistresource.org/research/statistics-for-journalists . [ Links ]
7. Green Thompson, L. Multiple choice exam setting workshop. 2015, accessed information: http:/download.usmle.org/iwtu- torial/intro.htm : Johannesburg. [ Links ]
8. Green Thompson, L. Multiple choie question paper setting. 2015, Accessed at: http:/www.nbme.org/publications/item-writing-manual/html : Johannesburg. [ Links ]
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Methodology
Published on September 19, 2022 by Rebecca Bevans . Revised on June 21, 2023.
In statistical research , a variable is defined as an attribute of an object of study. Choosing which variables to measure is central to good experimental design .
If you want to test whether some plant species are more salt-tolerant than others, some key variables you might measure include the amount of salt you add to the water, the species of plants being studied, and variables related to plant health like growth and wilting .
You need to know which types of variables you are working with in order to choose appropriate statistical tests and interpret the results of your study.
You can usually identify the type of variable by asking two questions:
Types of data: quantitative vs categorical variables, parts of the experiment: independent vs dependent variables, other common types of variables, other interesting articles, frequently asked questions about variables.
Data is a specific measurement of a variable – it is the value you record in your data sheet. Data is generally divided into two categories:
A variable that contains quantitative data is a quantitative variable ; a variable that contains categorical data is a categorical variable . Each of these types of variables can be broken down into further types.
When you collect quantitative data, the numbers you record represent real amounts that can be added, subtracted, divided, etc. There are two types of quantitative variables: discrete and continuous .
Type of variable | What does the data represent? | Examples |
---|---|---|
Discrete variables (aka integer variables) | Counts of individual items or values. | |
Continuous variables (aka ratio variables) | Measurements of continuous or non-finite values. |
Categorical variables represent groupings of some kind. They are sometimes recorded as numbers, but the numbers represent categories rather than actual amounts of things.
There are three types of categorical variables: binary , nominal , and ordinal variables .
Type of variable | What does the data represent? | Examples |
---|---|---|
Binary variables (aka dichotomous variables) | Yes or no outcomes. | |
Nominal variables | Groups with no rank or order between them. | |
Ordinal variables | Groups that are ranked in a specific order. | * |
*Note that sometimes a variable can work as more than one type! An ordinal variable can also be used as a quantitative variable if the scale is numeric and doesn’t need to be kept as discrete integers. For example, star ratings on product reviews are ordinal (1 to 5 stars), but the average star rating is quantitative.
To keep track of your salt-tolerance experiment, you make a data sheet where you record information about the variables in the experiment, like salt addition and plant health.
To gather information about plant responses over time, you can fill out the same data sheet every few days until the end of the experiment. This example sheet is color-coded according to the type of variable: nominal , continuous , ordinal , and binary .
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Experiments are usually designed to find out what effect one variable has on another – in our example, the effect of salt addition on plant growth.
You manipulate the independent variable (the one you think might be the cause ) and then measure the dependent variable (the one you think might be the effect ) to find out what this effect might be.
You will probably also have variables that you hold constant ( control variables ) in order to focus on your experimental treatment.
Type of variable | Definition | Example (salt tolerance experiment) |
---|---|---|
Independent variables (aka treatment variables) | Variables you manipulate in order to affect the outcome of an experiment. | The amount of salt added to each plant’s water. |
Dependent variables (aka ) | Variables that represent the outcome of the experiment. | Any measurement of plant health and growth: in this case, plant height and wilting. |
Control variables | Variables that are held constant throughout the experiment. | The temperature and light in the room the plants are kept in, and the volume of water given to each plant. |
In this experiment, we have one independent and three dependent variables.
The other variables in the sheet can’t be classified as independent or dependent, but they do contain data that you will need in order to interpret your dependent and independent variables.
When you do correlational research , the terms “dependent” and “independent” don’t apply, because you are not trying to establish a cause and effect relationship ( causation ).
However, there might be cases where one variable clearly precedes the other (for example, rainfall leads to mud, rather than the other way around). In these cases you may call the preceding variable (i.e., the rainfall) the predictor variable and the following variable (i.e. the mud) the outcome variable .
Once you have defined your independent and dependent variables and determined whether they are categorical or quantitative, you will be able to choose the correct statistical test .
But there are many other ways of describing variables that help with interpreting your results. Some useful types of variables are listed below.
Type of variable | Definition | Example (salt tolerance experiment) |
---|---|---|
A variable that hides the true effect of another variable in your experiment. This can happen when another variable is closely related to a variable you are interested in, but you haven’t controlled it in your experiment. Be careful with these, because confounding variables run a high risk of introducing a variety of to your work, particularly . | Pot size and soil type might affect plant survival as much or more than salt additions. In an experiment you would control these potential confounders by holding them constant. | |
Latent variables | A variable that can’t be directly measured, but that you represent via a proxy. | Salt tolerance in plants cannot be measured directly, but can be inferred from measurements of plant health in our salt-addition experiment. |
Composite variables | A variable that is made by combining multiple variables in an experiment. These variables are created when you analyze data, not when you measure it. | The three plant health variables could be combined into a single plant-health score to make it easier to present your findings. |
If you want to know more about statistics , methodology , or research bias , make sure to check out some of our other articles with explanations and examples.
Research bias
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You can think of independent and dependent variables in terms of cause and effect: an independent variable is the variable you think is the cause , while a dependent variable is the effect .
In an experiment, you manipulate the independent variable and measure the outcome in the dependent variable. For example, in an experiment about the effect of nutrients on crop growth:
Defining your variables, and deciding how you will manipulate and measure them, is an important part of experimental design .
A confounding variable , also called a confounder or confounding factor, is a third variable in a study examining a potential cause-and-effect relationship.
A confounding variable is related to both the supposed cause and the supposed effect of the study. It can be difficult to separate the true effect of the independent variable from the effect of the confounding variable.
In your research design , it’s important to identify potential confounding variables and plan how you will reduce their impact.
Quantitative variables are any variables where the data represent amounts (e.g. height, weight, or age).
Categorical variables are any variables where the data represent groups. This includes rankings (e.g. finishing places in a race), classifications (e.g. brands of cereal), and binary outcomes (e.g. coin flips).
You need to know what type of variables you are working with to choose the right statistical test for your data and interpret your results .
Discrete and continuous variables are two types of quantitative variables :
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Example (salt tolerance experiment) Independent variables (aka treatment variables) Variables you manipulate in order to affect the outcome of an experiment. The amount of salt added to each plant's water. Dependent variables (aka response variables) Variables that represent the outcome of the experiment.