case study of volcano in india

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• Published: 01 February 2021

The role of tropical volcanic eruptions in exacerbating Indian droughts

• Suvarna Fadnavis 1 ,
• Rolf Müller 2 ,
• Tanusri Chakraborty 1 ,
• T. P. Sabin 1 ,
• Anton Laakso 3 ,
• Alexandru Rap 4 ,
• Sabine Griessbach 5 ,
• Jean-Paul Vernier 6 , 7 &
• Simone Tilmes 8  

Scientific Reports volume  11 , Article number:  2714 ( 2021 ) Cite this article

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The Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) is vital for the livelihood of millions of people in the Indian region; droughts caused by monsoon failures often resulted in famines. Large volcanic eruptions have been linked with reductions in ISMR, but the responsible mechanisms remain unclear. Here, using 145-year (1871–2016) records of volcanic eruptions and ISMR, we show that ISMR deficits prevail for two years after moderate and large (VEI > 3) tropical volcanic eruptions; this is not the case for extra-tropical eruptions. Moreover, tropical volcanic eruptions strengthen El Niño and weaken La Niña conditions, further enhancing Indian droughts. Using climate-model simulations of the 2011 Nabro volcanic eruption, we show that eruption induced an El Niño like warming in the central Pacific for two consecutive years due to Kelvin wave dissipation triggered by the eruption. This El Niño like warming in the central Pacific led to a precipitation reduction in the Indian region. In addition, solar dimming caused by the volcanic plume in 2011 reduced Indian rainfall.

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Introduction.

Droughts associated with weak South Asian summer monsoons have a very strong impact on regional water security with substantial socio-economic consequences affecting millions of people in the region 1 , 2 . Famines caused by droughts in the Indian region have historically caused the death of millions of people 3 . Several factors contribute to a weakening of the monsoon and the droughts associated with it; in particular El Niño 4 , regional land-use changes 5 , and anthropogenic aerosol forcing 6 , 7 .

The global monsoon precipitation responds to large volcanic eruptions 8 , 9 . For example, northern hemisphere (NH) monsoon precipitation is weakened by NH and equatorial volcanic eruptions, but is enhanced by Southern hemisphere (SH) eruptions 10 . Droughts in West Africa also show linkages with asymmetric hemispheric volcanic forcing, i.e. volcanic eruptions in the NH produce droughts, whereas those in the SH induce a greening of the Sahel 11 . Furthermore, precipitation reductions during the years after tropical volcanic eruptions, mostly in the monsoon regions, have been found for five explosive eruptions in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) models (Krakatau, Santa María, Agung, El Chichón, and Pinatubo) and in an observational analysis 12 . A decrease in precipitation following large volcanic eruptions is also consistent with an observed reduction in river streamflow in wet tropical regions 13 , 14 . Similar mechanisms were also found in simulations of volcanic forcing during the past two centuries, namely precipitation decreases in the tropics and subtropics, a weaker monsoon in the year after large eruptions 15 and a shift of the intertropical convergence zone and the associated precipitation away from the hemisphere with greater volcanic forcing 16 . Consistently, climate proxy data over the past millennium derived from tree rings, ice cores, and speleothems show that volcanic forcing may drive a weak Asian summer monsoon in the second year after an eruption 17 , 18 .

Solar geoengineering studies investigating continuous injections of sulphur into the stratosphere assume an enhancement of the stratospheric aerosol burden resembling that caused by volcanic eruptions. Geoengineering studies consistently find a weakening of the Asian summer monsoon and a reduction of the associated precipitation 19 , 20 . Recent studies 21 , 22 , using four injection locations to minimise global, pole-to-equator and interhemispheric surface temperature gradient changes, found that while global annual precipitation over land is not affected, the heating of the lower tropical stratosphere results in important regional changes (e.g. a weakening of the Asian summer monsoon). While the impact of geoengineering is likely different to that of volcanic eruptions because of the assumed continuous application of geoengineering and the possibility to modulate injection locations to prevent precipitation shifts 23 , common processes impacting the Asian summer monsoon may be applicable to both.

The impact of moderate volcanic eruptions on tropical climate and the mechanisms of precipitation changes in response to such eruptions (e.g. changes in the South Asian summer monsoon) have hitherto received little attention. Here we employ 145-year long observational records (1871–2016) of volcanic eruptions and monsoon precipitation to investigate Indian rainfall deficits after moderate and large (VEI > 3) volcanic eruptions.

The global mean stratospheric aerosol loading has been modulated by a number of moderate volcanoes erupting after Mt. Pinatubo (June 1991) 24 . These volcanic eruptions also produced long-lasting perturbations in the global aerosol optical depth (AOD) and reflectivity 25 . The global aerosol radiative forcing and induced cooling from moderate volcanic eruptions since 2000 were estimated at −0.19 ± 0.009 W m −2 and −0.05 to −0.12 °C, respectively 26 . Past studies also show that surface cooling is known to cause a reduction in the Indian monsoon circulation 6 .

During the monsoon season, the localised aerosol layer over Asia known as the Asian tropopause aerosol layer (ATAL) 27 , 28 , 29 has been shown to amplify the severity of Indian droughts 7 by solar dimming. CALIPSO and SAGE-II satellite observations indicate that moderate-to-large volcanic eruptions, e.g. Kasatochi (August 2008), Sarychev (June 2009), Nabro (June 2011), have also been instrumental in enriching the ATAL 25 , 30 . These volcanic eruptions have enhanced the AOD in the lowermost stratosphere by ~ 30% of the global stratospheric aerosol optical depth 31 .

A further significant influence on the Asian summer monsoon and its association with volcanic eruptions and the ATAL is the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) 7 , 15 , 18 . Large volcanic eruptions can trigger atmospheric Kelvin waves and therefore shorten La Niña and lengthen El Niño periods within two years after the eruption 32 . El Niño periods are known to produce strong anomalous subsidence and a weakening of the Indian monsoon 4 , 33 . There are complex unexplored linkages of the Indian monsoon weakening and associated droughts with (1) aerosol layers in the UTLS, (2) volcanic eruptions thickening UTLS aerosol layers, and (3) the El Niño induced circulation which can be amplified by volcanic eruptions. Here we use a number of satellite observations (CALIPSO, MIPAS, MISR, TRMM) and climate model simulations (Max‐Planck‐Institute Earth System Model ( MPI ‐ ESM ) and ECHAM6-HAMMOZ) to investigate the role of moderate and large (VEI > 3) tropical volcanic eruptions in inducing drought conditions over India. The simulated rainfall is evaluated with the India meteorology department (IMD) and Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) rainfall data (see “ Methods ” section for details of data sets and methodology).

Moderate and large volcanic eruptions and Indian droughts

Figure  1 a,b shows the probability distribution of observed ISMR anomalies during 1871–2016. The data indicate substantial rainfall deficits for monsoon seasons within two years after a moderate or large tropical volcanic eruption, compared to monsoon seasons without such an eruption in the preceding two years (Kolmogorov–Smirnov (K-S) test measure = 0.5, P values = 0.05 given in Fig.  1 a indicates that the distributions with and without volcanoes are distinct. The K-S test measure and P-values shown in Fig.  1 b and Fig. S1 a,b also indicates that the corresponding distributions are distinct) (also see Table S1 ). Notably, this is in contrast to the observed ISMR anomalies during summer monsoon seasons following extratropical volcanic eruptions, which tend to show positive (wet) rainfall anomalies (Fig. S1 a). This is likely due to the spatial distribution of the moderate and large (VEI > 3) volcanic eruptions. As shown in Fig.  1 c, while tropical eruptions are mostly located near the maritime continent and the Niño-3 region, the extratropical eruptions are located near the north western Pacific and western Canada. However, if eruptions in the NH extratropics occur in June the Asian summer monsoon circulation transports volcanic aerosol into the tropics 34 . All five NH extra-tropical eruptions in June, Novarupta 1912, Komakatake 1929, Spurr 1992, Sheveluch 2001, and Sarychev 2009 (Table S2 ) are followed by a drought over the Indian region.

Volcanic eruptions and Indian summer monsoon rainfall: ( a ) probability distribution of rainfall anomalies within two years of eruption, when stratified with and without tropical volcanic eruptions; ( b ) probability distribution of rainfall anomalies within two years of a tropical volcanic eruption during El Niño, La Niña, and normal years; the statistical measures of K-S test shown in ( a , b ) indicates that distributions are distinct; ( c ) spatial distribution of moderate-to-large (VEI > 3) volcanic eruptions; ( d ) time series of June–September mean precipitation anomaly (%) during 1871 –2016 along with tropical (30° S–30° N) volcanic eruptions indicated with stars. Bars in magenta and blue in panel ( d ) indicate El Niño and La Niña years, respectively. Details of the volcanic eruption are listed in Table S1 . Anomalies are obtained as difference in rainfall amount of the respective year and climatology of 1871–2016 (figure created using the COLA/GrADS software).

ENSO is also known to be an important factor contributing to Indian summer monsoon negative (El Niño) and positive (La Niña) rainfall anomalies 35 (Fig. S1 b). Several previous studies reported an El Niño signature in the Pacific after a volcanic eruption 32 , 36 . Figure  1 b shows the probability distribution of ISMR anomalies corresponding to monsoon seasons following volcanic eruptions during the two phases of ENSO. Tropical volcanic eruptions associated with El Niño periods tend to produce Indian droughts while, volcanic eruptions associated with La Niña periods show positive rainfall anomalies (wet conditions). We find that 46 out of the 53 volcanic eruptions considered in our analysis (i.e. 87%) are followed by rainfall deficits during the 2-year period after the eruption. Of these 46 rainfall deficit periods, 36 occur during El Nino periods with 26 (26/53 = 49%) of them leading to droughts, i.e. rainfall deficit exceeding 10% of the seasonal climatological mean 37 (Fig.  1 d).

Volcanic aerosols forming a blanket over the ATAL during the monsoon season

To further investigate the processes causing the impact of tropical volcanic eruptions on Indian monsoon rainfall, we focus on the Nabro, Eritrea (13.37° N, 41.7° E) volcanic eruption of 12–13 June 2011, a tropical moderate eruption, which injected 1.3–2.0 Tg of SO 2 into the atmosphere 30 , 38 . Using the ECHAM6-HAMMOZ model volcano (Vol) simulation where 1.5 Tg of SO 2 were injected at 42° E, 13° N on 12 June 2011 (details in “ Methods ” section) we show the vertical dispersion of the volcanic plume in Fig.  2 a. Our simulations indicate that the Nabro volcanic plume formed a thick aerosol layer in the UTLS over the Indian region lasting up to October 2012 (Fig.  2 a). The volcanic aerosol partially enters the monsoon anticyclone causing a thickening of the ATAL during monsoon 2011 (July–August-September). The aerosol backscatter ratio measured by CALIPSO and aerosol cloud index (ACI) derived from MIPAS also shows a similar dispersion of the volcanic aerosol plume (Fig.  2 b,c). The aerosol is transported to higher altitudes and forms an additional layer above the ATAL during the subsequent monsoon in 2012 (the ATAL is indicated as contours in Fig.  2 a,b). The aerosol backscatter ratio measured by CALIPSO and aerosol cloud index (ACI) derived from MIPAS measurements confirm the simulated dispersion of the volcanic aerosol plume (Fig.  2 b,c). Both, the ECHAM6-HAMMOZ simulations and the CALIPSO data show the presence of two aerosol layers (ATAL and the volcanic layer) during the summer monsoon of 2012 (note there are no MIPAS data during this period). A previous study 30 based on CALIPSO observations suggests that quasi-isentropic differential advection in the vertically sheared flow surrounding the Asian anticyclone helped in the formation of the stratospheric aerosol layer over the Asian monsoon region, while deep convection in the Asian monsoon played a minor role in transporting volcanic aerosols to the lower stratosphere. CALIPSO satellite measurements also indicate a diabatic ascent of the Nabro plume in the lower stratosphere at rates of 10 K month −1 for the first two months after the eruption and 3 K.month −1 after the dissipation of the Asian anticyclone 30 . Lidar observations in Tsukuba, Japan (36.05° N, 140.13° E), Saga, Japan (33.24° N, 130.29° E) and Wuhan, China (30.5° N, 114.4° E) also show significant vertical spread of Nabro aerosols 39 . Also, MIPAS satellite measurements and ground based lidar measurements in Europe show an increase of the aerosol layer thickness with time 40 . Raman Lidar measurements at Gwangju, Korea (35.10° N, 126.53° E) show that the geometric depth of the aerosol layer was 2–3 km in June 2011, which expanded to 10 km within the next two months 41 .

Aerosol vertical distribution during July 2011–November 2012 averaged over India (70–95° E; 10–30° N). Scattering ratio at 532 nm in the ECHAM6-HAMMOZ (Vol) simulation ( a ), Scattering ratio at 532 nm from CALIPSO ( b ), and Aerosol cloud index (ACI) estimates from MIPAS ( c ). Arrows indicate the transport of the NABRO plume. The ATAL is indicated as contours in ( a , b ) (Figure are created using the COLA/GrADS software and Fig. 2c is created using Python).

Radiative impacts and surface cooling

Large volcanic eruptions are known to cause a substantial increase in the stratospheric aerosol layer which typically lasts for about 2–3 years 42 , 43 . These aerosol particles are more efficient at reflecting shortwave solar radiation than at attenuating longwave radiation emitted from the Earth’s surface, which results in a cooling of the troposphere and surface 44 . The El Chichón eruption in April 1982 produced a negative tropospheric radiative forcing (RF) of −2 to −4 Wm −2 over a year 45 and the Pinatubo eruption in June 1991 produced a RF at the top-of-the-atmosphere (TOA) of approximately −4.5 Wm −2 over the region 40° S–40° N 44 . Stratospheric volcanic aerosols from 2008 to 2011 have been estimated to have imposed an aerosol RF of −0.11 (−0.15 to −0.08) Wm −2 46 .

Our ECHAM6-HAMMOZ simulations analysed here indicate that the NABRO eruption has elevated stratospheric (potential temperature > 350 K) AOD by 0.024 (50%) (from 0.048 in the CTL simulation to 0.072 in the Vol simulation) in July 2011 and by 0.0061 (14%) (from 0.044 in the CTL simulation to 0.05 in Vol simulation) in July 2012 over the Asian region (5–105° E; 15–45° N). A previous study 31 has also reported an AOD enhancement of 0.01 in the stratosphere over the Asian monsoon region in July 2011 in comparison with the volcanically quiescent period 1997 –2000. CALIPSO satellite observations show AOD variation similar to ECHAM6-HAMMOZ, although the model overestimates AOD by 4–30% compared to CALIPSO (Fig. S2 a) .

The estimates of seasonal mean radiative impacts of the Nabro aerosol are provided for two subsequent monsoon seasons, July–September 2011 (June is not considered since the Nabro plume entered the anticyclone ~ 26 June 2011) and June–September 2012, referred hereafter as monsoon 2011 and monsoon 2012 respectively. Estimates of mean RF over the Indian region (75–90° E; 10–28° N) obtained from ECHAM6-HAMMOZ simulations (Vol-CTL) suggest that the Nabro aerosol layer produced negative RFs in 2011 monsoon (−0.81 Wm −2 at the surface; −0.61 Wm −2 at TOA) and in 2012 monsoon (−0.23 Wm −2 at the surface; −0.21 Wm −2 at TOA) (Fig.  3 a). Using the SOCRATES model 47 , 48 to isolate just the aerosol radiative effect (i.e. without accounting for other associated changes, e.g. dynamics), we estimate the following direct aerosol radiative forcing (Vol-CTL): −1.34 Wm −2 at the surface and −1.23 Wm −2 at TOA in 2011 monsoon, and −0.55 Wm −2 at the surface and −0.53 Wm −2 at TOA in 2012 monsoon (Fig.  3 a). The SOCRATES model also allows us to quantify the contribution of the simulated enhanced Nabro volcanic aerosol in the UTLS (150–30 hPa): −0.35 Wm −2 at the surface and −0.3 Wm −2 at TOA in 2011 monsoon, and at −0.06 Wm −2 at the surface and −0.06 Wm −2 at TOA in 2012 monsoon (Fig.  3 a). A previous study 30 based on CALIPSO observations shows that the increase in Nabro aerosols (at 14–40 km) has imposed a RF at the TOA −0.8 W.m −2 to −0.5 W.m −2 over South Asia in July and August 2011 (a local peak of −1.6 W.m −2 July 2011) 30 along with a global mean RF changes −0.3 Wm −2 during 2011–2012 31 .

( a ) Distribution of anomalies (Vol-CTL) in net direct radiative forcing at TOA (Wm −2 ) and the surface (Wm −2 ) for 2011 and 2012 monsoon from the ECHAM6-HAMMOZ simulations (ETOA and ESur), SOCRATES model (STOA and SSur), aerosols in the UTLS from SOCRATES: STOAUTLS and SSurUTLS), ( b ) same as ( a ) but changes in net solar radiation (flux) at the surface (W.m −2 ) (ECHAM6-HAMMOZ—E2011 and E2012; SOCRATES—S2011 and S2012, aerosols in the UTLS from SOCRATES—SUTLS2011 and SUTLS2012). Bars in panels ( a ) and ( b ) correspond to minimum, mean, maximum values. Vertical distribution of changes in heating rate (K day −1 ) averaged for 70°E–95°E and monsoon ( c ) 2011, and ( d ) 2012. (Figure created using the COLA/GrADS software).

Our ECHAM6-HAMMOZ model simulations show that the volcanically enhanced sulphate aerosol layer has led to a reduction in the solar flux reaching the surface over India (75–90° E; 10–28° N) by −1.23 W.m −2 and −0.50 W m −2 in the monsoon season of 2011 and 2012, respectively (Fig.  3 b). The corresponding changes in solar flux at the surface estimated using the SOCRATES radiation model (i.e. simulating only the volcanic sulphate aerosol direct radiative effect) are −4.5 W m −2 and −2.0 W m −2 in the monsoon season of 2011 and 2012, respectively. The contribution of the volcanic aerosol layer in the UTLS (150–30 hPa) quantified with the SOCRATES radiation model is a reduction in surface solar flux of −1.59 W m −2 and −0.27 W m −2 in the monsoon seasons of 2011 and 2012, respectively (Fig.  3 b).

Previous studies show that large volcanic eruptions can produce a global cooling at the surface for typically 2 to 3 years after the eruption 49 , 50 . Ocean–atmosphere climate model simulations show that an increase in the moderate volcanic activity during 2003–2012 has led to a reduction in the global mean warming trend of 0.08 °C in ten years 50 . Our MPI-ESM simulations, which couples the atmosphere, ocean and land surface (details in “ Methods ” section) show that the Nabro volcanic sulphate aerosol over North India (75–90°E, 20–35°N) has produced a mean cooling of −0.055 °C (−0.08 to −0.03 °C) in 2011 monsoon and −0.075 °C (−0.09 °C to −0.06 °C) in 2012 monsoon. Dynamical changes and subsidence associated with El Niño might have caused higher cooling in the monsoon season of 2012 than in 2011. This cooling is a factor of 10 smaller than the cooling caused by the Mt Pinatubo eruption, which amounts to −0.6 °C to −0.5 °C global mean surface temperature change during 1992–1993 51 . Observations suggest that large volcanic eruptions for the last 150 years have produced a global mean surface cooling of 0.3°C 52 . Temperature records for the past 450 years from corals, tree rings and ice cores show that volcanism in the tropics has produced a cooling of −0.1 °C in the tropics 53 .

Using the SOCRATES model we estimated the changes in heating rates induced by the Nabro volcanic aerosol. As shown in Fig.  3 c, increases in heating rates of 0.01 K.day −1 at ATAL altitudes (15–20 km) and 0.003–0.005 K.day −1 above ATAL altitudes (20–35 km) are simulated during the 2011 monsoon season, in conjunction with some small reductions of −0.001 to −0.002 K.day −1 at lower altitudes in the troposphere. This is driven by: (i) a local longwave (LW) heating, due to strong absorption of LW radiation by the aerosol; (ii) some LW heating below the aerosol layer and some LW cooling above the aerosol layer; (iii) short wave (SW) heating above the aerosol layer, due to scattered SW radiation from the aerosol layer being reflected upwards and absorbed by radiatively active gases (e.g. ozone) in that region and direct radiative heating from SW absorption by the aerosol itself; and (iv) SW cooling below the aerosol layer, due to the aerosol scattering SW radiation and therefore less SW radiation reaching those lower levels of the atmosphere. Substantially smaller changes are simulated during the monsoon season of 2012 (Fig.  3 d) due to the much smaller aerosol loadings and their location at higher altitudes. A thicker and broader ATAL over the Indian region due to aerosol enhancement during El Niño was shown to lead to a reduction of solar flux of up to −5 Wm −2 and negative heating rate anomalies of up to −0.05 K.day −1 over North India 7 .

Reduction in Indian summer monsoon precipitation

MPI-ESM simulated anomalies in precipitation (Vol-CTL) indicate that volcanic aerosols injected by the Nabro eruption have induced a reduction precipitation over the Indian region by −4.6% (−4.85 mm day −1 ) in 2011 monsoon and −2.5% (−3.12 mm day −1 ) in 2012 monsoon (Fig.  4 ). Precipitation reductions by −5.0% in 2011 monsoon and −2.7% in 2012 monsoon in comparison with the climatology (1981–2015) are also evident from the Global precipitation climatology project (GPCP) analysis of precipitation. India Meteorological Department (IMD) precipitation data also show a reduction in precipitation of −4.0% in 2011 monsoon and −1.1% in 2012 monsoon compared to the climatology (1950–2015) (Fig.  4 ). The weekly departures of precipitation changes (deviation from normal rainfall) of these measurements, when averaged over the Indian region, further show reduction in rainfall in 2011 and 2012 monsoon (Fig. S2 b,c). However, the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) rainfall data show an increase in precipitation of 4.0% in 2011 and a reduction of −0.9% in 2012 in comparison with the climatology (1998–2015) (Fig.  4 ). It should be noted however that TRMM data have a substantial bias (65%) over the Indian land mass in comparison with IMD rain gauge data 54 . Also, TRMM data show large biases over the Himalayas in comparison to India meteorological rain gauge data 55 . We have also obtained changes in rainfall in the 2011 and 2012 monsoon season in comparison with the climatology (1998–2015) over the Indian region, which excludes the Himalayas and Western Ghats (80E—93° E; 8 N–27° N). This region shows a reduction in rainfall in the monsoon season of 2011 (−0.59%) and 2012 (−4.2%). Importantly, the MPI-ESM simulations captured the rainfall reduction in the monsoon seasons of 2011 and 2012.

Distribution of anomalies (Vol-CTL) of rainfall (%) (averaged for 78–93°E, 8–35°N and for monsoon 2011 (July–September) and monsoon 2012 (June–September) from MPI-ESM represented as E2011, E2012; Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) (precipitation of monsoon 2011/2012—climatology of 1981–2015), India Meteorology Department (IMD) data (precipitation of monsoon 2011/2012—climatology of 1950–2015) (Figure created using Origin (OriginLab, Northampton, MA)).

Thus, our model simulates volcanic aerosol induces El Niño like warming in the central Pacific in 2011 (reduced La Niña signal) and in 2012 (strengthened El Niño condition) (Figs.  5 a–t, S3 ) and El Niño is known to cause reduction in ISMR 4 (discussed in “ Association of volcanic eruptions with ENSO ” section). The precipitation reduction is higher in the 2011 monsoon season than in 2012. During 2011, the Nabro volcano injected aerosols into the monsoon anticyclone, which formed a thicker aerosol layer extending from the upper troposphere to the lower stratosphere (150 hPa to 30 hPa) over the Indian region. In contrast, in 2012, the volcanic aerosol layer was thinner and located in the lower stratosphere above the thin ATAL. A thicker aerosol layer in 2011 results in a stronger reduction of solar insolation reaching the surface than in 2012, the stronger negative radiative forcing in 2011 prompts a stronger tropospheric cooling in 2011 than the thin layer in 2012 (as discussed in “ Radiative impacts and surface cooling ” section). Thus, the precipitation decrease in 2012 can for the most part be attributed to the anomalous subsidence because of El Niño. Here, the thin layer of aerosol located in the lower stratosphere in 2012, has less effect on solar inhibition. Thus solar dimming by the thicker aerosol layer (extending from 150 to 30 hPa) in the year of eruption causes a higher precipitation decrease than the following El Niño year (2012).

Anomalies (Vol-CTL) in temperature of sea water (K) from MPI-ESM ( a )-( t ) from July 2011 to February 2013. (Figure created using the COLA/GrADS software).

Sulfate geoengineering studies also show a reduction in Indian summer monsoon precipitation due to aerosol dimming and dynamical changes caused by stratospheric heating induced by the injected aerosol 19 , 21 , e.g. an 8.5% (0.53 mm.day −1 ) reduction in precipitation was reported 21 . Our MPI-ESM simulations show that volcanic sulfate aerosols cause stratospheric heating and tropospheric cooling, which further leads to dynamical changes resulting in the precipitation reduction in 2011 and 2012. These are due to (1) the anomalous reversal of the monsoon Hadley circulation (Fig. S4 a,b), which is also seen in NCEP data (Fig. S4 c,d), (2) weakening of the low-level jet (Fig. S4 c,d), (3) enhanced outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) (Fig. S4 e,f) and (4) enhanced stability in the upper troposphere (Fig. S4 g,h).

Association of volcanic eruptions with ENSO

Stratospheric aerosols from explosive tropical volcanic eruptions are known to cause an anomalous surface cooling within two years following the eruption. This cooling can induce atmospheric Kelvin waves and drive equatorial westerly wind anomalies over the western Pacific, thereby favouring El Niño conditions and shortening La-Niña periods 32 . Further, an El Niño signature after volcanic eruptions has been reported by several previous studies 8 , 32 . Also, 350 years of records show a large number of El Niño episodes associated with volcanic eruptions 56 .

El Niño is one of the most important atmospheric phenomena causing Indian droughts 4 . The Hadley Centre Sea Ice and Sea Surface Temperature (HadISST) data indicate that while 2011 was a moderate La Niña year, there was a clear El Niño signal in 2012 (Fig. S3 ). CMIP5 simulations show that a volcanic forcing tends to favour an anomalous central Pacific warming that peaks during the year of the eruption and therefore produces an El Niño like signal irrespective of the ENSO preconditioning 32 . Our MPI-ESM simulation (Vol-CTL) for the Nabro eruption further confirms warming in the central Pacific in 2011 and 2012 (Fig.  5 ). The warming was relatively weak during in 2011 and 2012 monsoons. It further strengthened in the winter season in 2011 and 2012 (from November 2011 to January 2012 and December 2012—February 2013) (Fig.  5 ). The warming induced by the Nabro eruption weakens the La-Niña condition in 2011 and strengthens the El Niño in 2012 (Figs.  5 and S3 ).

Our analysis indicates that the surface cooling over the Indian region induced by the layer of Nabro aerosols caused an atmospheric westerly wind anomaly in the central Pacific in July 2011 after the eruption (Fig.  6 a). This wind anomaly resulted in downwelling equatorial oceanic Kelvin waves through air-sea interactions and eventually drove a surface warming in the central Pacific during July 2011 to February 2013 (Fig.  6 b–d). This is consistent with analysis from CMIP5 simulations that showed how large volcanic eruptions can induce cooling in tropical Africa, i.e. the volcanically induced atmospheric cooling produced a Kelvin wave, driving an El Niño like warming in the Pacific 32 . Interestingly, El Niño like warming by Kelvin wave dissipation is stronger in the second year after the eruption 32 . In agreement to this, our model simulations (Vol-CTL) also show warming due to Kelvin wave dissipation triggered by the eruption (Niño 3.0 and Niño 3.4 regions) is stronger in the following year (monsoon and winter seasons in 2012) than the year of volcanic eruption (monsoon and winter seasons in 2012) (Figs. 5 , 6 d). A clear signal of El Niño like warming in 2011 and 2012 is also seen in Fig.  6 d, it weakens La Nina features in 2011 and strengthens the El Nino features in 2012 (Fig. S3 ).

( a ) Anomalies (Vol-CTL) in ocean eastward velocity (m s −1 ) averaged for 2°S–2°N, ( b ) Power spectral density plot of anomalies (Vol-CTL) in zonal wind stress (Pa) averaged for 2°S–2°N and 140° W, it indicates the Kelvin waves with dominant periodicity of 70–100 days during July 2011 to January 2013, ( c ) Eastward propagating Kelvin waves near the equator (averaged for 2°S–2°N) after application of band pass filter (70–100 days) on anomalies (Vol-CTL) in zonal wind stress (Pa), ( d ) Seasonal mean anomalies (Vol-CTL) in surface temperature of sea water (K) at the Niño 3 (5°S to 5°N, 150 W and 90 W) and Niño 3.4 (170°W to 120°W, 5°S to 5°N) regions. M2011 represents as 2011 monsoon (JAS 2011), W2011 as 2011 winter (December 2011-Feb2012), M2012 as 2012 monsoon (JJAS 2012), and W2012 as 2012 winter (December 2012-Feb2013). Bars in panel ( d ) correspond to minimum, mean, maximum values. Figure ( a – d ) are from the MPI-ESM model simulations (Figure created using the COLA/GrADS software).

El Niño is known to induce anomalous large scale subsidence over the Indian region associated with a subdued precipitation 4 . The simulated (Vol-CTL) effect of the volcanic eruption on the regional circulation shows subsidence associated with a descending branch of the Walker circulation over the Indian region during the 2011 and 2012 monsoons (Fig. S5 a,b). This is caused by the volcanically induced warming in the central Pacific. The model simulations also show a weakening of the Hadley circulation in monsoon seasons of 2011 and 2012 (Fig. S4 a,b) in agreement with reanalysis data (Fig. S4 c,d). Thus we can infer the role of volcanically induced El Niño like warming in the central Pacific inducing the subsidence over the Indian region during the 2011 and 2012 monsoons.

Data records show that 49% (26 out of 53) of the moderate to large tropical volcanic eruptions during 1871–2016 have been associated with El Niño conditions within two years after the eruption and have caused droughts over India (Fig.  1 and Table S1 ). We argue that these moderate to large volcanic eruptions are linked to a reduction in monsoon precipitation for two consecutive years through a series of connected mechanisms: (i) thickening of the ATAL over India; (ii) formation of a thick layer of volcanic aerosol above the ATAL extending to the stratosphere, i.e. a double blanket; (iii) this double blanket effect due to additional volcanic plumes weakens the monsoon circulation via dynamical changes caused by the stratospheric heating and by its radiative cooling effect in the troposphere; (iv) the tropospheric cooling induces atmospheric Kelvin waves, which lead to warming in the central Pacific through air-sea interaction; (v) it also reduces La Niña features (e.g. following the Nabro eruption in 2011) and strengthens El Niño like conditions (e.g. in 2012), (vi) the El Niño favoured subsidence further exacerbates drought conditions in India (see Fig.  7 ). The precipitation reduction is higher in the year of the eruption due to the formation of a thick aerosol layer extending from the upper troposphere to the lower stratosphere in addition to the subsidence associated with the El Niño like warming. The year following the year of eruption continues as a drought year because of the stronger El Niño like warming compared to the previous year.

A schematic of the impact of volcanic eruptions on monsoon precipitation: ( a ) normal monsoon with a strong Hadley circulation, ( b ) Nabro volcanic aerosol leading to a thick aerosol layer in the UTLS comprising of the ATAL, which reflects more solar radiation leading to a weak Hadley circulation (anomalous; denoted with sign reversal and dotted lines) and a reduction in rainfall. ( c ) The tropospheric cooling induced by the thicker ATAL (as in volcano year, " b ") induces an El Niño in the following year (through anomalous atmospheric Kelvin and Rossby waves (shown as a blue wave in “ b ”), which induce a westerly wind burst (black wave) and produce an El Niño through downwelling Kelvin waves (shown in white colour)). However, the reduced aerosol layer lets pass more sunlight compared to the year of the eruption, but the El Niño weakens the Hadley circulation (anomalous; shown in lines [since it is less reduction than in the year of the eruption] with the inverted arrow) and retains the deficit rainfall condition. The SST patterns intend to indicate the normal and El Niño condition over the Pacific, rest of the oceanic basins are kept the same in all maps for illustration purpose (and are not connected with our simulations). Maps are prepared using NCL and 3D impact and schematic structures made utilizing Adobe illustrator.

This study highlights the role of tropical volcanic eruptions in enhancing the aerosol loading in the UTLS and reducing the Indian monsoon precipitation. This reduction occurs due to solar dimming and dynamical interactions through the weakening of the monsoon Hadley circulation and the low-level monsoon jet as well as by enhancing the stability of the upper troposphere. Volcanic eruptions may further cause a reduction of La Niña signals or induce an El Niño signal over the tropical Pacific, thus reducing the Indian summer monsoon precipitation. The changes in the aerosol loading in the UTLS induced by volcanic eruptions resemble to a certain extent those caused by intentional injections of stratospheric aerosol (or aerosol precursors) to compensate for atmospheric CO 2 increase 19 , 21 . Our results are thus also relevant for assessing the impact of solar radiation management (SRM) geoengineering, which could exacerbate droughts in the Indian region. Further, an increasing trend in anthropogenic SO 2 emissions (~ 4.8% per year) over the South Asian region due to enhanced industrialisation and biomass burning also leads to an increase in sulphate aerosols, which are transported to the lower stratosphere by the Asian monsoon convection 57 . This impact of increasing anthropogenic aerosol is also enhanced intermittently by episodic volcanic eruptions, which are injecting aerosol precursors and sulphate aerosols directly into the lower stratosphere. Such eruptions lead to large aerosol loadings in the lowermost stratosphere, with an important associated contribution to radiative forcing 31 . Satellite measurements (CALIPSO, SAGE II, GOMOS, and OSIRIS) confirm the rising trend in the stratospheric aerosol loading during 2002–2010, which is mainly driven by a series of moderate but increasingly intense volcanic eruptions primarily at tropical latitudes 25 . There are ~ 1500 active volcanoes worldwide 58 , including Asia (253), Japan (100), Africa (152), the maritime continent (127), United States of America (71), and Canada (21) ( https://www.volcanodiscovery.com ). They can significantly amplify the dimming already caused by the anthropogenic aerosol concentration over the South Asian monsoon region, which will affect the hydroclimate of the Asian region. Hence, along with other key factors, tropical volcanic eruptions are important contributors influencing Indian droughts with substantial socio-economic implications.

Model description and experimental setup

To understand the impact of the Nabro volcanic aerosol on Indian summer monsoon precipitation we employed a two-step method, where the radiative properties of the aerosol plume were first simulated with an aerosol-chemistry-climate model and then implemented as prescribed fields into a state-of-the-art Earth System Model. The ECHAM6-HAMMOZ aerosol-chemistry-climate model was used for the Nabro volcanic plume simulations. The model comprises of an atmospheric general circulation module (ECHAM6.3), a tropospheric chemistry module (MOZ1.0), and an aerosol module, namely the Hamburg Aerosol Model (HAM2.3) 59 , 60 . The model parametrisation and other details are documented in previous studies 57 . Aerosol microphysics is simulated by the Sectional Aerosol module for Large Scale Applications (SALSA) module 61 , where the aerosol size distribution is described by 10 size sections for soluble and 7 size sections for insoluble particles. The model simulations were performed at a spectral resolution T63 corresponding to 1.875° × 1.875° in horizontal and 47 vertical levels from the surface to 1 hPa with a time step of 20 min. The anthropogenic and fire emissions of sulfate, black carbon (BC) and organic carbon (OC) are based on the AEROCOM-ACCMIP-II emission inventory 62 . We performed Nabro volcano and control simulations starting from 1 to 10 January 2011 to obtain a 10-member ensemble mean. These simulations end on 31 December 2013 (Table S3 ). In all 10 members of Vol simulations 1.5 Tg of SO 2 was injected at 42° E, 13° N on 12 June 2011. The plume was equally distributed between 10 and 17 km . It should be noted that the anthropogenic aerosols are the same in the Vol and CTL simulations. Therefore the difference in radiative effect obtained from Vol and CTL simulations correspond to volcanic aerosol effects.

To estimate rainfall we performed experiments with the MPI-ESM 63 . This model couples the atmosphere, ocean and land surface through the exchange of energy, momentum, and water, which allows changes in SSTs, temperature of sea water and signature of El-Niño and La Niña to be estimated. The model consists of the atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM6 64 and the MPI Ocean Model (MPI-OM 65 ). MPI-OM applies a conformal mapping grid with a horizontal resolution ranging from 22 to 350 km. The ocean model includes a Hibler-type dynamic–thermodynamic sea ice model with viscous–plastic rheology 66 . Ocean and atmosphere are coupled daily without flux corrections using the Ocean–Atmosphere Sea Ice Soil, version 3 (OASIS3) coupler 67 . The version of MPI-ESM used in this study does not simulate aerosols explicitly. To study climate impacts of the Nabro volcanic eruption, the aerosol properties from ECHAM6-HAMMOZ simulations were implemented to MPI-ESM as prescribed fields. The method is the same as 68 . The aerosol optical depth, single-scattering albedo, and the asymmetry factor were archived for 14 shortwave bands and absorption AOD in 16 longwave bands of radiative transfer model of ECHAM6-HAMMOZ. Then the aerosol radiative properties were implemented as 3D fields to MPI-ESM as monthly ensemble mean values. To include only upper tropospheric and stratospheric aerosols from the Nabro volcanic eruption, the lowest 14 model level (up to 4–6 km altitude) of aerosols fields of ECHAM6-HAMMOZ simulations were excluded and default MPI-ESM tropospheric aerosols 69 were used instead. The same T63L47 atmospheric resolution was used in MPI-ESM simulation, as in ECHAM6-HAMMOZ. Simulations were based on Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 70 scenario and started from the year 2011 and continued until the end of the year 2013. Ten ensemble members were simulated to both CTL and Vol scenarios (Table S3 ).

The offline model estimates for the volcanic sulphate aerosol direct radiative forcing and associated changes to heating rates were calculated with the SOCRATES radiative transfer model 47 , 48 with 6 shortwave and 9 longwave bands, using the CLASSIC aerosol scheme 71 .

Observations and reanalysis data

Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) measurements from two satellites (1) Multi-Angle Imaging Spectroradiometer (MISR) ( https://misr.jpl.nasa.gov/getData/accessData/ ) 72 , and (2) CALIPSO 27 ( https://misr.jpl.nasa.gov/getData/accessData/ ), from July 2011 to December 2012 were used in this study. ( https://eosweb.larc.nasa.gov/project/calipso/calipso_table ).

We used zonal and meridional wind data from the National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis, available for the period 1948–2016. Rainfall data sets used are from India Meteorology department (IMD) for the period 1871–2016, Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) daily rainfall data (3B42) for the period 1998–2015 ( https://gpm.nasa.gov/data-access/downloads/trmm ) and Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) containing data from rain gauge stations, satellites, and sounding observations for the period 1981–2015 ( https://climatedataguide.ucar.edu/climate-data/gpcp-monthly-global-precipitation-climatology-project ). Hadisst data were used for the period 1980–2016 ( https://climatedataguide.ucar.edu/climate-data/sst-data-hadisst-v11 ). We considered the occurrence of strong El Niño during the years 1876, 1877, 1888, 1891, 1896, 1899, 1900, 1902, 1904, 1911, 1913, 1918, 1925, 1930, 1935, 1944, 1951, 1957, 1965, 1968, 1972, 1976, 1982, 1987, 1991, 1997, 2002, 2006, 2009 and 2015. The large volcanic eruption (VEI ≥ 3), the El Niño condition following within two years and the Indian droughts are tabulated in Tables S1 and S2 . In our analysis, we considered a monsoon season of the co-occurring El Niño year since correlations between Indian summer monsoon rainfall and Niño-3.4 index exhibits a maximum negative correlation for a zero-lag year 73 .

Evaluation simulated precipitation with rain gauge measurements

Figure S6 a–h shows distributions of simulated precipitation (MPI-ESM Vol simulation), IMD measurements, TRMM satellite retrievals, and GPCP data for the monsoon in 2011 (July –September) and 2012 (June–September). There is large spatial variation in precipitation among the data sets although all data sets show similar spatial patterns (e.g., higher rainfall at Southern slopes of Himalayas, Western Ghats and Indo Gangetic plains). We quantify the difference in simulated precipitation with respect to IMD, and GPC data over India (78–93°E, 8–35°N) (see Fig. S6 i). The model underestimates precipitation compared to IMD by 0.9 mm.day −1 (Vol: 7.6 mm.day −1 ; IMD: 8.5 mm.day −1 ) in 2011 and 1.0 mm.day −1 (Vol: 7.0 mm.day −1 , IMD: 8.0 mm.day −1 ) in 2012. Also, simulated rainfall is higher than GPCP by 1.1 mm.day −1 (Vol: 8.5 mm.day −1 , GPCP: 7.4 mm.day −1 ) in 2011 and by 1.3 mm.day −1 (Vol: 8.0 mm.day −1 , GPCP: 6.7 mm.day −1 ) in 2012. Figure S6 i shows that the model underestimates rainfall in comparison with IMD and overestimates GPCP over the Indian landmass.

At the Southern slopes of the Himalayas the model overestimates precipitation by 2.3 mm.day −1 than GPCP and at Western Ghats it underestimates by 6.2 mm.day −1 in comparison with IMD and by 4.1 mm.day −1 in comparison with GPCP. These model deficiencies may be due to the fine orthography of these regions which is not well represented in MPI-ESM due to its coarse resolution. An accurate monsoon simulation is still a challenge even with high-resolution climate models 2 . There are uncertainties in the model due to transport processes, employed emission inventory, and various parametrisations 7 , 57 . Importantly, there are differences between the observational data sets, IMD, and GPCP as well. These differences may be due to different techniques of measurements, while IMD uses a network of rain gauge station measurements and GPCP combines measurements from rain gauge stations, satellites, and sounding observations. However, the limitations for the model results are the same in CTL and Vol simulations and generate monsoon precipitation reduction (Vol-CTL) (Fig. S7 ). Similarly IMD and GPCP also show precipitation reduction over the Indian region in monsoon 2011 and 2012 (Fig. S7 ). Considering fair performance of the model in simulating precipitation over India we proceed carefully employing model results for understanding the impact of the Nabro volcanic eruption in Indian summer monsoon precipitation.

Evaluation of NABRO AOD and plume

Figure S8 a–d shows the distribution of total AOD from MISR observations and ECHAM6-HAMMOZ (Vol) simulations. It shows that the model could simulate the spatial pattern of high amounts of aerosols over the Indo-Gangetic Plain and Mongolia desert, although the AOD is underestimated by ~ 0.07 in the model.

The comparison of the simulated enhancement of AOD with observations at various locations also shows reasonable agreement. Our simulations show an enhancement of AOD in the UTLS in a grid at Eritrea of ~ 0.08 on 25th June 2011, which is in agreement with observations, e.g., lidar measurements in Korea, Japan, and China that show an increase in UTLS AOD of ~ 0.07 during June 2011 39 , 40 . An increase in AOD ~ 0.012–0.03 between 12 and 20 km over Asia has also been reported in the past 41 using CALIPSO measurements during 16–31 July 2011. CALIPSO satellite observations also show an increase in global mean AOD by ~ 0.01 in the UTLS in June 2011 due to the Nabro eruption 31 .

Further, we analyse the dispersion of aerosols in the UTLS. Figure S9 a–d shows anomalies of sulfate aerosols (Vol-CTL) depicting the progression of simulated sulfate aerosol plume during 14–20 June 2011 at an altitude of 12–16 km. Figure S9 a shows that on 14 June the sulphate aerosol plume was entrained in the south westerly flow over the Middle East on the northwest. On 20th June 2011, the plume circumnavigated the Asian anticyclone (Fig. S9 d). The aerosol concentration is mostly located in the northern hemisphere. Aerosol measurements from the MIPAS satellite on the same days, filled with Lagrangian trajectory traces calculated by MPTRAC from measurements within ± 3 days driven by ERA5 data, indicate a similar progression of the NABRO plume during 14 –20 June (Fig. S9 e–h). A similar distribution and progression of the Nabro plume is seen in CALIPSO and AIRS observations 30 . The simulated zonal spread of the aerosol in the UTLS (16–20 km) also shows reasonable agreement with the aerosol observations from MIPAS satellite (Fig. S9 i–l).

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Acknowledgments

The authors thank the staff of the High Power Computing Centre (HPC) in IITM, Pune, India, for providing computer resources and the team members of MODIS and MISR, for providing data. S. Fadnavis acknowledges with gratitude Prof. Ravi Nanjundiah, Director of IITM, for his encouragement during the course of this research. For the processing of the MIPAS data and the calculation of the corresponding trajectories, we gratefully acknowledge the Gauss Centre for Supercomputing for providing computing time on the supercomputer JUWELS at Jülich Supercomputing Centre. This contribution by R.M. was partly funded by the project “Advanced Earth System Modelling Capacity (ESM)” of the Helmholtz-Gemeinschaft. The authors thank Roxy Mathew Koll, IITM, Pune, for useful discussions on El Niño and the Indian monsoon.

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Suvarna Fadnavis, Tanusri Chakraborty & T. P. Sabin

Forschungszentrum Jülich GmbH, IEK7, Jülich, Germany

• Rolf Müller

Finnish Meteorological Institute, Kuopio, Finland

Anton Laakso

School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK

Alexandru Rap

Forschungszentrum Jülich GmbH, Jülich Supercomputing Center, Jülich, Germany

Sabine Griessbach

National Institute of Aerospace, Hampton, VA, USA

Jean-Paul Vernier

NASA Langley Research Center, Hampton, VA, USA

National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, USA

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Contributions

S.F. initiated the idea of the study. T.P.S. and T.C. performed model and data analysis. A.R. computed radiative forcing from the SOCRATES model. A.L. helped in designing the model experiments and simulation of MPI-ESM. J.-P.V. conducted the CALIOP analysis. S.G. contributed by providing the MIPAS analysis. R.M. contributed in overall design and analysis. S.T. contributed in writing. All authors contributed to discussions of the results and the writing of the manuscript.

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Correspondence to Suvarna Fadnavis .

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Fadnavis, S., Müller, R., Chakraborty, T. et al. The role of tropical volcanic eruptions in exacerbating Indian droughts. Sci Rep 11 , 2714 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-81566-0

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Report on Barren Island (India) — June 2011

Bulletin of the Global Volcanism Network, vol. 36, no. 6 (June 2011) Managing Editor: Richard Wunderman. Barren Island (India) Evolving eruption emits tephra and continues in January 2011

Please cite this report as: Global Volcanism Program, 2011. Report on Barren Island (India) (Wunderman, R., ed.). Bulletin of the Global Volcanism Network , 36:6. Smithsonian Institution. https://doi.org/10.5479/si.GVP.BGVN201106-260010

Barren Island

12.278°n, 93.858°e; summit elev. 354 m, all times are local (unless otherwise noted).

Barren Island, a young and growing mafic island-arc volcano in the Andaman Sea (figure 16), produced its first historically recorded eruption in 1787; a series of eruptions followed in later years. Evidence of eruptions again became clear in May 2005 as a result observations by the Indian Coast Guard.

A recent report on Barren Island ( BGVN 35:01 ) reported occasional ash plumes and decreasing thermal alerts through January 2010. In our last report on Barren Island ( BGVN 36:03) we described some new details about this volcano, particularly during the years 2005-2009, as reported by Sheth and others (2009) and the Geological Survey of India (GSI, 2009). The current report discusses activity at the volcano during January 2010-April 2011, including observations made by GSI (2011) during a January 2011 field trip and thermal anomalies detected by satellite.

Ash plumes. During 2010 and through mid-2011, the Darwin Volcanic Ash Advisory Centre reported ash plumes from Barren Island. Figure 17 shows a plume rising from the volcano in a 25 September 2010 satellite image.

The Darwin VAAC documented other plumes, for example, on 3 January 2010 a pilot reported that a plume rose to an altitude of 1.5 km. On 11 January 2010 an ash plume visible through satellite imagery rose to an altitude of 1.5 km and drifted 45 km S. On 23 January 2010 a pilot observed an ash plume that rose to a reported altitude of 3 km, but it was not identified on satellite imagery.

New insights from GSI. GSI (2011) discussed a scientific expedition to Barren Island made during 2-8 January 2011. The eruption still continued, but with lesser intensity as compared to the violent eruption observed during 2005 to 2009. The eruption was of a pulsative and explosive character (Strombolian type) where dark columns of a dense ash-laden steam with coarser pyroclasts (cinders, juvenile lava blocks) were ejected at 2- to 8-minute intervals.

The eruption discharged from two vents on the parasitic crater. That crater had developed over a subsidiary cinder cone (~ 500 m high) on the S wall of the main cinder cone of the 1991-95 eruption. Coarser incandescent pyroclasts rose sub-vertically to 100-150 m in height and tumbled down the volcanic cone. A thick column of ash-laden gray vapor was ejected to heights of ~ 150-200 m and typically rose in a mushroom shaped ash cloud.

Figure 18 shows the lower portion of an ash plume.

Significant changes were observed in the shape and height of the cinder cone in the 2-km-diameter caldera. The height of the cinder cone increased from ~ 350 m in 2005 to ~ 500 m in 2011. The main approach to the center of the island follows a valley leads to the breached NW side of the caldera wall. The valley was covered totally by a thick pile of repetitive sequences of assorted pyroclasts and lava from recent eruptions. Near the base of the cinder cone, in the NW part of the island, the accumulated thickness of the products from recent eruptions was ~ 100 m. Besides the main pyroclast deposits from lava in the W part of the valley, considerable deposits had filled up the valley in the NNW part of the island, overflowing the caldera wall and covering the pre-historic lava. The recent lava flows reached the sea front attaining a width of ~ 250 m at the coast (figure 19).

This is the first report of the lava and pyroclasts of recent eruptions in the NNW part of the island. The main lava flow and pyroclastic deposits discharged from the NW part of the crater,carried towards the W and NNW part of the valley, giving rise to new land forms.

The lava and associated eruptive products of the 1991 and 1994-95 explosions, which were exposed earlier near the mouth of the valley and on the S side of the valley, were covered by the recent tephra The coarser pyroclasts are highly vesiculated basaltic rocks where plagioclase occurs as the dominant phenocryst set in a glassy matrix. The pile of pyroclasts formed very uneven. Maximum height of the accumulated material was ~20 m. Fusion of individual cinders, spatter, and blocks produced bigger blocks.

MODVOLC Thermal Alerts. MODVOLC satellite thermal measurement showed frequent alerts for the following periods: 17 September through 5 November 2010 (nearly daily alerts), 14 December 2010 through 10 January 2011, and 29 March through 11 April 2011 (daily alerts). Alerts were absent during 13 February through 17 September 2010.

Recent history of major ash eruptions . Awasthi and others (2010) measured 14 C dates of inorganic carbon in sediment beds, and Sr and Nd isotopic ratios of seven discrete ash layers, in a marine sediment core collected from 32 km SE of the Barren volcano. The study revealed that the volcano had seven major ash eruptions, at ~70, 69, 61, 24, 19, 15, and 10 kiloyears (ka) before present. The ash layers erupted from 70 ka through 19 ka have highly uniform Nd isotopic composition; eruptions since ~15 ka have highly variable isotopic compositions. The authors found that during 10-24 ka, the volcano had large ash eruptions spaced at ~4.5 ka intervals (~10, ~15, 19, and 24 ka). Isotopically correlating the precaldera lavas and ash exposed on the volcano to the uppermost ash layer in the core, the authors inferred that the caldera was younger than the last ~10 ka ash layer found in the core. This represents the hypothesis that the caldera formed as a result of a single, simple, symmetric collapse after Barren Islands major ash eruptions.

References. Awasthi, N., Ray, J.S., Laskar, A.H., Kumar, A., Sudhakar, M., Bhutani, R., Sheth, H.C., and Yadava, M.G., 2010, Major ash eruptions of Barren Island volcano (Andaman Sea) during the past 72 kyr: clues from a sediment core record, Bulletin of Volcanology , v. 72, pp. 1131-1136.

Geological Survey of India, 2009, The Barren Island Volcano, Explosive Strombolian type eruption observed during January 2009, Jan 2009 URL: http://www.portal.gsi.gov.in/ gsiImages/information/ N_BarrenJan09Note.pdf)

Geological Survey of India, 2011, Barren Volcano in January 2011: An explosive pulsative eruption (Strombolian) still continues, Eastern Region Geological Survey of India URL: http://www.portal.gsi.gov.in/gsiDoc/pub/cs_barren-eruption.pdf)

Sheth, H.C. , Ray, J.S., Bhutani, R., Kumar, A., and Smitha, R. S., 2009, Volcanology and eruptive styles of Barren Island: an active mafic stratovolcano in the Andaman Sea, NE Indian Ocean, Bulletin of Volcanology , v. 71, pp. 1021-1039 (DOI: 10.1007/s00445-009-0280-z).

Siebert, L., Simkin, T., and Kimberly, P, 2010, Volcanoes of the World: Third Edition, University of California Press , Berkeley, 551 p.

Geological Summary. Barren Island, a possession of India in the Andaman Sea about 135 km NE of Port Blair in the Andaman Islands, is the only historically active volcano along the N-S volcanic arc extending between Sumatra and Burma (Myanmar). It is the emergent summit of a volcano that rises from a depth of about 2250 m. The small, uninhabited 3-km-wide island contains a roughly 2-km-wide caldera with walls 250-350 m high. The caldera, which is open to the sea on the west, was created during a major explosive eruption in the late Pleistocene that produced pyroclastic-flow and -surge deposits. Historical eruptions have changed the morphology of the pyroclastic cone in the center of the caldera, and lava flows that fill much of the caldera floor have reached the sea along the western coast.

Information Contacts: Geological Survey of India (GSI) , GSI Complex, Bhu Bijnan Bhavan, Block: DK-6, Sector-II, Salt LakeKolkata-700091 West Bengal, India (URL: http://www.portal.gsi.gov.in/); Darwin Volcanic Ash Advisory Centre (VAAC) , Bureau of Meteorology, Northern Territory Regional Office, PO Box 40050, Casuarina, NT 0811, Australia (URL: http://www.bom.gov.au/info/vaac/).

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Modelling of volcanic ash with HYSPLIT and satellite observations: a case study of the 2018 Barren Island volcano eruption event, Andaman Territory, India

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Eruption on Barren Island

August 24, 2005 JPEG

The volcano on Barren Island erupted on August 24, 2005. A part of India, Barren Island is one of the Andaman Islands, and lies over the fault whose movement caused the tsunami on December 26, 2004. It is a stratovolcano composed of lava, rock fragments, and volcanic ash. On the west side of the island is a caldera formed by an explosive eruption in the Pleistocene era. Two kilometers wide, the caldera takes up the bulk of this tiny island that measures only 3 kilometers across.

The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) flying onboard the Aqua satellite captured this image on August 24, 2005. In this image, smoke blows from the volcano eastward over the Andaman Sea toward a bank of clouds. The red outline indicates surface area hotter than its surroundings.

NASA image created by Jeff Schmaltz, MODIS Rapid Response team.

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The island shaped like a horseshoe.

Deception Island is one of the only places in the world where ships can sail directly into the center of an active volcano.

Image of the Day Snow and Ice

Volcanic Island in the Pacific Turns Two

Nishinoshima has grown to twelve times its original size.

Image of the Day Land Volcanoes

Barren Island Volcano

“new” pacific island consumes its neighbor.

In the western Pacific Ocean, a new volcanic island that formed in the shadow of Nishino-shima has merged with it. The island has doubled in size as the eruption continues.

Image of the Day Atmosphere Land Volcanoes

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India’s only active volcano on the boil again in Andaman and Nicobar

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Rajya Sabha TV: In Depth – India’s Active volcano

(TOPICS COVERED:

PRELIMS:  Indian and World Geography – Physical

MAINS: GENERAL STUDIES I – Important Geophysical phenomena such as volcanic activity, geographical features and their location)

India’s live volcano in the Andaman and Nicobar islands is reported to be erupting once again in 2018. The eruptions could be linked to the recent earthquake that rocked Indonesia in Southeast Asia. The active volcano in India is Barren Island and is uninhabited, located about 140 km from Port Blair.

Diagram of a volcanic eruption.

• It is a rupture in the crust of a planetary-mass object (like Earth), that causes hot lava, volcanic ash, and gases to escape from a magma chamber below the surface.
• On Earth, volcanoes are generally found where tectonic plates (like Eurasian, Pacific, Somali, etc) diverge or converge . Examples- volcanoes occurring in mid-oceanic ridge and Ring of Fire.
• Eruption of volcanoes can be hazardous for humans and other lives living in its vicinity and volcanic ash may be a threat to aircrafts. Volcanoes can also cause
• Large volcanic eruptions inject water vapour (H 2 O), Carbon Dioxide (CO 2 ), Sulphur Dioxide (SO 2 ), ash, etc into the stratosphere to heights of 16-32 km.
• A volcano is considered to be “active” if it has erupted in the last 10,000 years. Examples – Kilauea (Hawaiian Islands), Mount Etna (Italy), etc.
• Extinct volcanoes are unlikely to erupt again as the volcano no longer has a magma supply. Examples – Volcanoes on Hawaiian Emperor seamount chain in the Pacific Ocean, Shiprock in New Mexico, etc.

  VOLCANIC EXPLOSIVITY INDEX (VEI)

• It is a relative measure of the explosiveness of volcanic eruptions.
• It was devised by Chris Newhall of the United States Geological Survey in
• Explosivity value is determined by volume of products, eruption cloud height, and qualitative observations.
• The indices of VEI range from VEI 0 (non-explosive eruptions) to VEI 8 (most explosive eruptions recorded).
• The 1815 eruption of Mount Tambora (in present day Indonesia) had VEI 7. The ash erupted and dispersed around the world and lowered global temperatures. It was called as “Year without a summer” in 1816 that observed extreme weather events and harvest failures in many areas.

   BARREN ISLAND (ANDAMAN ISLANDS)

• Barren Island is located in Andaman Sea , about 140 km from Port Blair.
• It is a part of Indian Union Territory of Andaman and Nicobar islands.
• Barren volcano in the region is the only confirmed active volcano in South Asia (along a chain of volcanoes from Sumatra to Myanmar)
• The oldest subaerial lava flows of the volcano are calculated to be 1.6 million years old.
• Recent timeline of volcanic eruptions in Barren island:

1787: First recorded eruption

1789, 1795, 1803, 1852: Further eruptions were recorded.

1991: The eruption occurred after about 150 years of dormancy. It lasted for about 6 months and caused considerable damage, particularly to the island’s fauna.

1995: Eruption reported

2004-05: Eruption recorded and linked to 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake.

2017: Volcano was spotted. They were a continuation of eruption in 2005, as per a study by Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO).

2018: Volcanic eruptions reported and linked to 28 September 2018 earthquakes in Sulawesi, Indonesia.

         Volcanoes are phenomenon which can cause a lot of damage if it occurs in the vicinity of populations living in the region. Barren islands are quite far away from human habitations, but can disrupt the paths of flights travelling in the region. Volcanoes, Earthquakes, etc are natural phenomenon but early predictions and preparations can reduce the possible hazards.

Question (Prelims 2018)

Consider the following statements:

• The Barren Island volcano is an active volcano in the Indian Territory.
• Barren Island lies about 140 km East of Great Nicobar.
• The last time the Barren Island erupted was in 1991 and has remained inactive since then.

Which of the following statements above is/ are correct?

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Eyjafjallajokull Case Study

What is Eyjafjallajokull?

Eyjafjallajokull is a volcano located in Iceland. The name is a description of the volcano with Eyja meaning island; fjalla meaning mountain; and jokull meaning glacier. You can find out how to pronounce Eyjafjallajokull on the BBC website .

Eyjafjallajökull consists of a volcano completely covered by an ice cap. The ice cap covers an area of about 100 square kilometres (39 sq mi), feeding many outlet glaciers.

What type of volcano is Eyjafjallajokull?

The mountain itself, a composite (stratovolcano) volcano, stands 1,651 metres (5,417 ft) at its highest point and has a crater 3–4 kilometres (1.9–2.5 mi) in diameter, open to the north.

When did Eyjafjallajokull erupt?

Eyjafjallajokull erupted between March and May 2010.

Why did Eyjafjallajokull erupt?

Iceland lies on the Mid-Atlantic Ridge, a constructive plate margin separating the North American and Eurasian plates. The two plates move apart due to ridge push along the Mid-Atlantic Ridge. As the plates move apart, magma fills the magma chamber below Eyjafjallajokull—several magma chambers combined to produce a significant volume of magma below the volcano. Eyjafjallajokull is located below a glacier.

The Eyjafjallajökull volcano erupted in 920, 1612 and again from 1821 to 1823 when it caused a glacial lake outburst flood (or jökulhlaup). It erupted three times in 2010—on 20 March, April–May, and June. The March event forced a brief evacuation of around 500 local people. Still, the 14 April eruption was ten to twenty times more powerful and caused substantial disruption to air traffic across Europe. It caused the cancellation of thousands of flights across Europe and to Iceland.

How big was the eruption of Eyjafjallajokull?

The eruption was only three on the volcanic explosivity index (VEI). Around 15 eruptions on this scale usually happen each year in Iceland. However, in this case, a combination of a settled weather pattern with winds blowing towards Europe, very fine ash and a persistent eruption lasting 39 days magnified the impact of a relatively ordinary event. The eruptions in March were mainly lava eruptions. On 14 April, a new phase began, which was much more explosive. Violent eruptions belched huge quantities of ash into the atmosphere.

The eruption of Eyjafjallajokull

What were the impacts of the eruption? (social / economic / environmental – primary and secondary effects)

Primary effects : As a result of the eruption, day turned to night, with the ash blocking the sun. Rescuers wore face masks to prevent them from choking on ash clouds.

Homes and roads were damaged, services were disrupted, crops were destroyed by ash, and roads were washed away. The ash cloud brought European airspace to a standstill during the latter half of April 2010 and cost billions of euros in delays. During the eruption, a no-fly zone was imposed across much of Europe, meaning airlines lost around £130m per day. The price of shares in major airlines dropped between 2.5 and 3.3% during the eruption. However, it should be noted that imports and exports are being impacted across European countries on the trade front, so the net trade position was not affected markedly overall.

Secondary effects : Sporting events were cancelled or affected due to cancelled flights. Fresh food imports stopped, and industries were affected by a lack of imported raw materials. Local water supplies were contaminated with fluoride. Flooding was caused as the glacier melted.

International Effects: The impact was felt as far afield as Kenya, where farmers have laid off 5000 workers after flowers and vegetables were left rotting at airports. Kenya’s flower council says the country lost $1.3m a day in lost shipments to Europe. Kenya exports typically up to 500 tonnes of flowers daily – 97% of which is delivered to Europe. Horticulture earned Kenya 71 billion shillings (£594m) in 2009 and is the country’s top foreign exchange earner. You can read more about this on the Guardian website .

What opportunities did the eruption of Eyjafjallajokull bring?

Despite the problems caused by the eruption of Eyjafjallajokull, the eruption brought several benefits. According to the Environmental Transport Association, the  grounding of European flights prevented some 2.8 million tonnes of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere (according to the Environmental Transport Association).

As passengers looked for other ways to travel than flying, many different transport companies benefited. There was a considerable increase in passenger numbers on Eurostar. It saw a rise of nearly a third, with 50,000 extra passengers travelling on their trains.

Ash from the Eyjafjallajökull volcano deposited dissolved iron into the North Atlantic, triggering a plankton bloom, driving an increase in biological productivity.

Following the negative publicity of the eruption, the Icelandic government launched a campaign to promote tourism . Inspired by Iceland was established with the strategic intent of depicting the country’s beauty, the friendliness of its people and the fact that it was very much open for business. As a result, tourist numbers increased significantly following the campaign, as shown in the graph below.

Foreign visitor arrivals to Iceland

What was done to reduce the impact of the eruption of Eyjafjallajokull?

In the short term, the area around the volcano was evacuated.

European Red Cross Societies mobilised volunteers, staff and other resources to help people affected directly or indirectly by the eruption of the Eyjafjallajökull glacier volcano. The European Red Cross provided food for the farming population living in the vicinity of the glacier, as well as counselling and psychosocial support, in particular for traumatised children. Some 700 people were evacuated from the disaster zone three times in the past month. In one instance, people had to flee their homes in the middle of the night to escape from flash floods.

The European Union has developed an integrated structure for air traffic management. As a result, nine Functional Airspace Blocks (FABs) will replace the existing 27 areas. This means following a volcanic eruption in the future, areas of air space may be closed, reducing the risk of closing all European air space.

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Avalanche in India’s Himalayan state of Uttarakhand kills eight

The army, quoted by local media, said victims and people rescued were labourers working on a road project.

At least eight people have died and 384 rescued after a glacier broke and triggered an avalanche close to the Indo-China border in the Indian state of Uttarakhand on Friday.

“Eight bodies have been recovered. Rescue operations are in progress,” a defence ministry official told reporters on Saturday, adding that six of those rescued were in critical condition.

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The road access was cut off at four or five locations due to multiple landslides after the avalanche struck in Uttarakhand’s Chamoli district on Friday evening, the official said.

The army, quoted by local media, said the victims and those rescued were labourers working with the Border Roads Organisation (BRO) in the area.

According to The Times of India newspaper, the army statement said the incident took place approximately at 4pm (10:30 GMT) on Friday.

“An avalanche hit a location about 4km ahead of Sumna on Sumna-Rimkhim road in Uttarakhand,” it said.

“A BRO detachment and two labour camps exist nearby for road construction work along this axis. An Army camp is located three km from Sumna. The area has experienced heavy rains and snow since the last five days which is still continuing.”

Efforts are being made to revive the communication network as roads are closed due to heavy snowfall, Tirath Singh Rawat, chief minister of the state, said in a tweet after an aerial survey of the area.

In February, the breaking up of a glacier and ensuing landslides resulted in a flash flood that swept away two hydroelectric projects. More than 200 people were killed in the incident.

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A response of volcanic rocks to the India-Asia continental collision: A case study on Linzizong volcanic rocks in Linzhou, Tibet

• DONG Guochen , 
• MO Xuanxue , 
• ZHAO Zhidan , 

China University of Geoscience, Beijing 100083, China

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Earthquakes in India, Types, Zones, Causes, Impacts, Latest Updates

A powerful 5.6 magnitude earthquake originating in Nepal on 6th Nov 2023 felt massive tremors in Delhi-NCR region. Know all about Earthquakes in India and Latest Updates here.

Table of Contents

Earthquake in Nepal and Delhi: Latest Update

Another earthquake of magnitude 5.6 on the Richter scale hit Nepal on the 6th of November 2023 evening as the Himalayan nation recovered from the deadly November 3 earthquake that killed 153 people. This is the 3rd earthquake that has struck Nepal in the last four days. Tremors were also felt in parts of northern India, including the Delhi-NCR region.

Earthquake in Nepal: Nepal earthquake: A 6.4 magnitude earthquake struck Nepal’s Lamidanda area in the Jajarkot district, causing strong tremors that were felt in various northern Indian cities, including the Delhi-NCR region, around 11.30 pm. The earthquake had a depth of 10 km, occurring at a latitude of 28.84 N and a longitude of 82.19 E. This marks the third significant quake in Nepal within a month.

Earthquake in North India: The seismic activity extended to North India, including Delhi, Noida, Gurugram, and Bihar, where residents experienced strong tremors. However, local officials initially reported no injuries or significant damage in these areas.

Delhi Earthquake: In Delhi and the National Capital Region (NCR), residents felt intense tremors, prompting them to evacuate their homes. The earthquake caused buildings in the national capital to shake. Remarkably, this marks the third occurrence of powerful earthquakes in Nepal within a month.

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Massive Earthquake Tremors Felt in Delhi-NCR: Last Month

A powerful 6.2 magnitude earthquake originating in neighbouring Nepal sent massive tremors through Delhi and the National Capital Region (NCR). The National Centre for Seismology identified the epicentre of this seismic event as being located in Nepal, and it occurred on October 3, 2023, at 14:51:04 IST.

The earthquake had a depth of 5 kilometres and was centred at Lat: 29.39 and Long: 81.23, as reported by the National Centre for Seismology. Reports indicate that the earthquake was not confined to Delhi and the NCR; tremors were also felt in various areas of Uttar Pradesh, including Lucknow, Hapur, and Amroha. This event has generated widespread concern and attention due to its significant magnitude and the widespread impact it has had on the region.

Earthquakes in India

An earthquake is just the shaking of the ground. It happens naturally. It happens as a result of energy being released, which makes waves move in all directions. When an earthquake occurs, the Earth vibrates, producing seismic waves that are detected by seismographs.

Every day, moderate-sized earthquakes take place. On the other hand, powerful tremors that inflict extensive destruction are less frequent. Around plate boundaries, particularly along convergent boundaries, earthquakes are more frequent. More earthquakes occur in the area of India where the Indian Plate and the Eurasian Plate clash. Consider the Himalayan region, for instance.

India’s peninsular region is thought to be a stable area. On occasion, though, earthquakes are felt on the edges of smaller plates. The 1967 Koyna earthquake and the 1993 Latur earthquake are two examples of earthquakes that occurred in peninsular areas. Indian seismologists have divided India into four seismic zones: Zone II, Zone III, Zone IV, and Zone V.

As can be seen, zones V and IV are assigned to the entire Himalayan region as well as the states of North-East India, Western and Northern Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, Delhi, and portions of Gujarat. A significant chunk of the peninsular region is in the low-risk zone, while the northern lowlands and western coastal regions continue to be in the moderate hazard zone.

Read about: Component of Environment

Types of Indian Earthquakes

Tectonic earthquakes.

The movement of loose, broken bits of land on the earth’s crust known as tectonic plates is what causes the most frequent type of earthquake.

Volcanic Earthquake

These earthquakes, which are less frequent than the tectonic variety, take place prior to or following a volcanic eruption. It happens when rocks that are forced to the surface mix with magma that is erupting from the volcano.

Collapse Earthquake

In subterranean mines, there is an earthquake. The pressure created inside the rocks is the primary cause.

Explosion Earthquakes

This kind of earthquake doesn’t naturally occur. The main culprit is a high-density explosion, such as a nuclear explosion.

Earthquake Zones in India

Here’s a complete List of All Zones of Earthquakes in India:

The zones are distinguished using Modified Mercalli (MM) intensity, which evaluates the impact of earthquakes. However, the seismic zoning map was updated following the Killari earthquake in Maharashtra in 1993, merging the low danger zone, or Seismic Zone I, with Seismic Zone II. Zone I is therefore excluded from the mapping.

It falls under the low-intensity category. It covers 40.93% of the nation’s land area. Along with the Karnataka Plateau, it also encompasses the peninsula region.

This region is moderately intense. It covers 30.79 per cent of the nation’s area. The state is made up of Kerala, Goa, and the Lakshadweep Islands, as well as portions of Punjab, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, Maharashtra, Odisha, and Tamil Nadu.

A high-intensity zone is what it is called. It covers 17.49% of the land area of the nation. It encompasses the remaining portions of Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, the National Capital Territory (NCT) of Delhi, Sikkim, the northern portions of Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, West Bengal, the western coast of Maharashtra, and Rajasthan.

It falls under the category of an extremely severe zone. It covers 10.79 per cent of the land area of the nation. It also covers a region of North Bihar, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, the Rann of Kutch in Gujarat, and the Andaman and Nicobar Islands.

Major Earthquakes in India List

Some of the devastating earthquakes have affected India. More than 58.6% of Indian Territory is vulnerable to earthquakes of moderate to very high intensity. Some of India’s most significant earthquakes include:

• Cutch Earthquake (1819) which was 8.3 magnitude
• Assam Earthquake (1897)
• Bihar-Nepal Earthquake (1934) of 8.4 magnitude
• Koyna Earthquake (1967) of 6.5 magnitude
• Uttarkashi (1991) of 6.6 magnitude
• Killari (1993) of 6.4 magnitude
• Bhuj (2001) of 7.7 magnitude
• Jammu Kashmir (2005)

Read about: Wetlands in India

List of Major Earthquakes in India Year-wise for UPSC

• 2015 India/Nepal Earthquake
• 2011 Sikkim Earthquake
• 2005 Kashmir Earthquake
• 2004 Indian Ocean Earthquake
• 2001 Bhuj Earthquake
• 1999 Chamoli Earthquake
• 1997 Jabalpur Earthquake
• 1993 Latur Earthquake
• 1991 Uttarkashi Earthquake
• 1941 Andaman Islands Earthquake
• 1975 Kinnaur Earthquake
• 1967 Koynanagar Earthquake
• 1956 Anjar Earthquake
• 1934 Bihar/Nepal Earthquake
• 1905 Kangra Earthquake

Causes of Earthquakes in India

Avalanches and landslides.

Tremors can cause slope instability and collapse, which can lead to debris falling down the slope and causing landslides, especially in hilly areas. Massive amounts of ice may fall from peaks covered in snow as a result of avalanches brought on by earthquakes. As an illustration, the 2015 Nepal earthquake led to several avalanches on and near Mount Everest.

Landslides and considerable property damage were caused by the Sikkim earthquake of 2011 in particular at the Singik and Upper Teesta hydroelectric projects.

Flash floods and failures of dams and reservoirs could result from the earthquake. Flooding could result from avalanches and slides impeding the river’s flow. The 1950 Assam earthquake produced a barrier in the Dihang River as a result of the buildup of enormous debris, resulting in flash floods in the upstream region.

When an ocean basin is disturbed and a significant amount of water is displaced, waves called tsunamis are created. The seafloor is moved by seismic waves from earthquakes, which can produce large sea waves. On December 26, 2004, an earthquake off the coast of Sumatra caused the Indian Ocean Tsunami.

The Indian plate subducting beneath the Burmese plate is what caused it to happen. Over 2.4 lakh people were killed in the Indian Ocean region and its neighbouring countries. Ten-meter Tsunami waves were produced by an undersea earthquake of magnitude nine during the devastating Tohoku earthquake in Japan in 2011. Due to the destruction of the emergency generators cooling the reactors, a nuclear meltdown occurred, and the radioactive fallout from Fukushima Daiichi became a major global problem.

Impact of Earthquakes in India

Loss of human life and property.

Human towns and structures sustain severe damage and destruction as a result of the ground surface deformation brought on by the earth’s crust’s vertical and horizontal movement. a case in point An analysis of the urban devastation caused by the 2015 Nepal earthquake.

The depth of this 7.8-magnitude earthquake was 8.2 kilometres. The Nepal earthquake claimed many lives as a result of unchecked urban expansion, poorly engineered buildings, and unscientifically designed constructions. Urban areas of Kathmandu were badly devastated, causing 8,000 fatalities and a 10 billion dollar economic loss.

Alterations to the River’s Course

The alteration in the river’s course brought on by the obstruction is one of the earthquake’s significant effects.

Fountains of Mud

Mud and boiling water may surface as a result of the earthquake’s tremendous force. The agricultural field was covered in knee-deep mud following the 1934 Bihar earthquake.

Gas pipelines and electric infrastructure are both harmed by earthquakes. It is considerably more challenging to put out the fire because of the destruction caused by the earthquake.

Mitigation Measures for Earthquakes in India

The national center for seismology.

Governmental organisations receive earthquake monitoring and hazard reports from a department of the Ministry of Earth Sciences. There are three divisions in it: Geophysical Observation System, Earthquake Hazard and Risk Assessment, and Earthquake Monitoring and services.

National Earthquake Risk Mitigation Project (NERMP)

Enhancing earthquake mitigation programmes’ non-structural and structural components. It aids in lowering susceptibility in high-risk areas. In the areas with strong seismic activity, necessary risk reduction measures are put in place. The project’s assigned agency, NDMA, has created a detailed project report (DPR).

National Building Code (NBC)

It is a comprehensive building code and a national regulation that sets rules for controlling building construction across the nation. The Planning Commission ordered its first 1970 publication, which was later updated in 1983. Following that, three significant amendments—two in 1987 and the third in 1997—were published. The National Building Code of India 2005 replaces the updated NBC (NBC 2005). Meeting the problems presented by natural disasters and adopting current, applicable international best practises are the key characteristics.

Building Materials & Technology Promotion Council (BMTPC)

It takes on projects for life-line structural retrofitting to raise awareness among the populace and various governmental organisations. It sought to assist the general public and policymakers in particular in their efforts to lessen the vulnerability of the thousands of existing public and private structures.

NDMA Guidelines for Earthquakes

In 2007, the NDMA published its comprehensive earthquake recommendations. The rules specify actions that must be taken by State Governments, Central Ministries, and Departments in order to create disaster management plans with a focus on managing earthquake risk. Six pillars make up the fundamental tenet of these principles:

• The building of new structures that is earthquake-resistant.
• Retrofitting and selective seismic strengthening of existing structures.
• Enforcement and regulation.
• Preparation and awareness.
• Building capacity;
• Emergency reaction.

Biggest Earthquakes in India

The devastating Bhuj earthquake of 2001 took place on January 26, 2001, near the Pakistani border in the Indian state of Gujarat. The largest earthquake in India, measuring 8.6 on the Richter scale, struck the India-China region on August 15, 1950. 1530 people perished as a result of the shifting of tectonic plates at a depth of 30 km.

Earthquake in the Indian Ocean

Since of their resemblance to rapidly rising tides, tsunamis are commonly referred to as tidal waves, but scientists avoid using this phrase because, unlike tides, which are brought about by the gravitational pull of the sun and moon, tsunamis are caused by the displacement of water. The tsunami of 2004 was caused by a massive earthquake that was the third-largest earthquake ever recorded on a seismograph.

On the Richter scale, it was between 9.1 and 9.3 in magnitude. The faulting persisted for the longest time ever—between 8.3 and 10 minutes. It generated several aftershocks that persisted for up to 3 to 4 months after the initial incident. A significant amount of energy was released as a result of the seismic activity, and the earth is thought to have slightly shifted on its axis.

The earth’s rotation changed as a result of the change in mass and energy released. The earthquake caused the seafloor to rise vertically by many metres, displacing a significant amount of water and resulting in a tsunami. Indonesia was the first country to be affected by the tsunami because of its proximity. Additionally, it saw the most casualties, with about 170,000 people dying.

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Earthquakes in India FAQs

What are the 5 largest earthquake ever recorded in india.

• 1993 Latur Earthquake • 1991 Uttarkashi Earthquake • 1941 Andaman Islands Earthquake • 1975 Kinnaur Earthquake • 1967 Koynanagar Earthquake

Which is the biggest earthquake in India?

The devastating Bhuj earthquake of 2001 took place on January 26, 2001, in the Indian state of Gujarat, close to the Pakistani border.

Which city in India is most prone to earthquake?

• Guwahati • Srinagar • Mumbai • Pune • Kerala • Delhi • Chennai • Kochi • Thiruvananthapuram • Patna

What causes earthquake in India?

The entire Himalayan belt as well as the country’s north-eastern portion is prone to powerful earthquakes with magnitudes greater than 8.0. The Indian plate is moving toward the Eurasian plate at a pace of roughly 50 mm per year, which is the primary cause of earthquakes in these areas.

Which place is safe from earthquake?

Go somewhere open that is far from any trees, telephone poles, or structures. Once outside, crouch low and remain there until the trembling stops. The most hazardous spot to be is close to a building's exterior walls. Frequently, the building's windows, façade, and architectural details are the first to give way.

Was there an earthquake in Delhi?

On November 06, 2023 strong tremors were felt in Delhi and NCR after two earthquakes that has struck Nepal in the last four days.

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Last April's total solar eclipse, photographed from Bloomington, Indiana. Josh Edelson/AFP/Getty

• Environment

“Things Are Moving So Quickly” as Scientists Study This “Very Scary” Climate Strategy

The controversial field of solar geoengineering is hitting its stride..

Jessica McKenzie 19 hours ago

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This story was originally published by  Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists and is reproduced here as part of the  Climate Desk   collaboration.

In 2006, a group of preeminent scientists met for  a two-day conference at the NASA Ames  Research Center in California to discuss cooling the Earth by injecting particles into the stratosphere to reflect sunlight into space.

At some point, one of the conference rooms became overheated.

“The room was getting kind of hot, and somebody went over to the thermostat to try and fix it,” recalled Alan Robock, a Rutgers climatologist who was in attendance. “And they couldn’t adjust it. And so many people didn’t understand the irony that you can’t control the temperature of a room, but you’re talking about controlling the temperature of the whole Earth.”

Solar geoengineering—also called solar radiation management or solar radiation modification—was then and is now a fraught subject. Many experts and nonexperts alike consider the idea of deliberately mucking about with Earth’s climate systems to counteract centuries of mostly accidental mucking about in Earth’s climate systems ethically dubious and potentially highly dangerous.

And yet: Last year, the global average temperature was  almost 1.5 degrees Celsius warmer  than the pre-industrial average, due to the vast amounts of heat-trapping carbon dioxide that humans have added to the atmosphere by burning fossil fuels. This warming is responsible for  a wide range of climate impacts , from more extreme storms and longer heat waves to increased precipitation and flooding as well as more severe droughts and longer wildfire seasons.

As the climate crisis has escalated, some experts have suggested that drastic measures like solar geoengineering may eventually become necessary and so should be researched now.

Would it work? In 1991,  the eruption of Mount Pinatubo spewed 17 million metric tons of sulfur dioxide  into the atmosphere, which cooled the Earth by roughly 0.5 degree Celsius (0.9 degree Fahrenheit) for about a year. After the Tambora volcano in Indonesia erupted in 1815, parts of Europe and North America saw a “year without summer.” Scientists have looked to those events to try to understand what might happen if humans deliberately released sulfur dioxide into the stratosphere. But there is a world of difference between studying naturally occurring volcanic eruptions and intentionally modifying the amount of solar radiation that reaches Earth’s surface.

Solar geoengineering is a controversial area of research for numerous reasons. In 2008, Robock penned an article for the  Bulletin  on  the 20 reasons solar geoengineering could be a bad—possibly even catastrophic—idea ; a  more recent version  expanded the list to 26.

Introducing particles like sulfate aerosols into the stratosphere could create a plethora of new and unpredictable problems. Possible negative impacts may include changing regional weather patterns—creating or shifting areas of drought or regions that receive extreme precipitation—or altering tropospheric chemistry and ocean circulation patterns.

Partially blocking the sun’s rays could interfere with normal plant processes and reduce agricultural yields. Adding sulfate aerosols to the stratosphere would degrade the ozone layer (thereby increasing global cancer rates) and increase acid rain. The potential effects of solar radiation management are so large and wide-ranging as to implicate almost every aspect of life on the planet.

The potential effects of solar radiation management are so large and wide-ranging as to implicate almost every aspect of life on the planet.

Even in best-case scenarios, it would be only a partial stopgap. Solar geoengineering, for example, does nothing to ameliorate ocean acidification, which occurs when the ocean absorbs carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. This acidification  threatens ocean life  like oysters, clams, sea urchins, corals, and the calcareous phytoplankton that help make up the foundation of the marine food web on which much of humanity depends.

Also, many experts agree, global governance structures are profoundly ill-equipped to deal with the kinds of questions solar geoengineering will raise: How much cooling is the right amount? (Wouldn’t Russia want things a bit warmer, and India somewhat cooler?) Who benefits, and who doesn’t, and who decides? How would disputes about the negative impacts of any geoengineering regime be adjudicated? The type of world-spanning, long-term regulatory scheme required to institute and manage solar geoengineering has no precedent in human history.

Some have argued that merely conducting research could inspire rogue actors to take things into their own hands, with potentially disastrous geophysical and geopolitical results. Then there is the moral hazard argument against geoengineering: If humans began cooling the Earth with solar geoengineering, wouldn’t that give citizens a false sense of security—and companies an excuse to pump the brakes on decarbonization of energy systems and proceed with fossil-fuel-burning business as usual?

As fringe as the idea of solar radiation modification once was and as generally controversial as it remains, it is gaining some traction. Last spring, the University of Chicago hired David Keith, one of the most visible proponents of solar geoengineering, to lead a new Climate Systems Engineering initiative, committing to at least 10 new faculty hires for the program. The group will study solar geoengineering, as well as other kinds of Earth system modifications aimed at addressing the climate crisis.

With this initiative, the University of Chicago is attempting to position itself as the place for serious scientific consideration of the logistics and implications of Earth system interventions aimed at reversing or counteracting climate change. It is part of a broader university effort to become a global leader in the climate and energy space.

Previously, Keith was at Harvard University, where he helped launch the  Solar Geoengineering Research Program . After repeated delays and years of controversy, Harvard recently  canceled  a small-scale outdoor geoengineering experiment that Keith helped plan. That  experiment  would have involved launching a high-altitude balloon, releasing fine particles of calcium carbonate into the stratosphere, and then sending the balloon back through the cloud to monitor how those particles disperse and interact within the atmosphere, and with solar radiation.

Although many of the sources interviewed for this article acknowledged the controversial nature of solar geoengineering, they also pointed out that the University of Chicago is a leading educational institution that prides itself on not shying away from tough questions or topics. And because of its provocative nature, climate systems engineering—a term the university created to describe this emerging field—is also an area of research that, until now, has lacked strong, centralized institutional support. This has created a vacuum that University of Chicago leaders seem excited to fill.

Michael Greenstone, the director of the Energy Policy Institute at Chicago (EPIC), led the faculty committee that proposed the Climate Systems Engineering initiative and was instrumental in bringing Keith to Chicago. Greenstone described the academy’s indifference to geoengineering research as “malpractice.”

“I thought it was really different and consequential to have UChicago—without any particular person on campus who was an advocate of climate engineering research—to say, ‘We think this makes sense to build as a field.'”

“We’re going to wish we had effective carbon dioxide removal technologies operating at scale, or we’re going to wish we knew how to modulate temperatures with various forms of geoengineering to prevent human suffering,” Greenstone told the  Bulletin . “But these ideas are not being stress-tested in a systematic way, and the University of Chicago’s tradition of bravery at pursing important ideas, no matter how controversial, make this the perfect place to create the field of climate systems engineering.”

In the early stages of developing the initiative, Keith helped the university organize an event with researchers working on topics that could fall under the umbrella of climate systems engineering.

“Here was the most distinguished group of scholars in the world in this field,” recalled university president Paul Alivisatos. “To a person, what they said is, ‘I’ve always felt that I have to do this work very quietly by myself, as one person in my university, because it’s just not a set of ideas that people want to engage with.’” (Alivisatos did not respond to a later request for a list of event attendees. Keith responded in an email: “I don’t believe we told people the meeting would be public so I would have to go back and double check that each person okayed it which seems like too much trouble.”)

There are researchers studying solar geoengineering at Harvard, Cornell, Princeton, Colorado State, and ETH Zurich, but, Keith said, most of those programs came about because of “a single person who pushed it forward, sometimes against resistance, and then it grew.”

“I thought it was really different and consequential to have UChicago—without any particular person on campus who was an advocate of climate engineering research—to say, ‘we think this makes sense to build as a field, to actually build it in a serious way and make a commitment to do that,’” Keith added.

As with many new university initiatives, this one started with a new president. In November 2021, Alivisatos charged a university committee with the task of determining how the university could best establish itself as a “global leader in the climate and energy space.” One of the specific requests was to “[d]etermine the areas in which the University of Chicago does not currently have strong faculty presence but could expand its influence by facilitating the development of new ideas in key areas that other universities are missing.”

The committee was chaired by Greenstone, an economist, and included two other economists, an ecologist, two molecular engineers, a historian, a geologist, a law professor, and a computer scientist.

Susan Kidwell, a geologist and paleobiologist, was shocked to be the only committee member from the geophysical sciences department and said that there were two other people from the department who would have been “more appropriate.” Kidwell said that the make-up of the committee helped avoid “preaching to the converted,” but it raised the eyebrows of outside observers.

“I think part of the big story here is not even just about geoengineering, specifically, but about the fact that the university decided to basically give control over their biggest climate initiative, primarily, to the economics department,” said Raymond Pierrehumbert. Pierrehumbert is an Oxford physicist and former University of Chicago professor in geophysical sciences, a former member of the  Bulletin ’s Science and Security Board ,  a prominent climate change expert, and an outspoken critic of solar geoengineering.

Greenstone has done a lot of work at the intersection of climate, the environment, and economics, Pierrehumbert acknowledged. While the chief economist on President Obama’s Council of Economic Advisers, for example, Greenstone was  one of the key architects of efforts to calculate and use the social cost of carbon  in federal policy making. But he is not a climate or atmospheric scientist, nor were any of the other members of the University of Chicago committee that explored the university’s role in climate and energy.

The committee’s report in March 2022 made several recommendations, including the design of new undergraduate and graduate programs related to energy and climate and the development of “climate forward” policies, so the university’s operations reflect its commitment to climate action. The strongest recommendation was to create a new Climate and Energy Institute, what one faculty member described as a “super EPIC,” with a mission to “fundamentally alter education and research on a global scale.” It has since been announced that Greenstone  will be the founding director  of that new institute.

The committee recommended the university start research programs within the new institute in three substantive areas: economics, markets, and policy; energy conversion and storage systems; and climate systems engineering.

The last stands out for its tangential relation to the “energy” part of climate and energy. But for better or worse, climate systems engineering certainly fit the brief of filling a gap in the research landscape and creating a plausible path to becoming a global leader in a specific area.

According to the committee report, “[M]ost models, including all major models used by the IPCC [Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change], indicate that the world will need to deploy carbon dioxide removal technologies on a massive scale in the near future. Moreover, to blunt the pace of rapid climate change, nations may turn to geo-engineering tools, such as solar radiation management. Higher temperatures may also require managing, indeed perhaps engineering, ecosystems to be resilient to climate change and even help mitigate it.”

The report suggested creating a research initiative based around these problems and potential solutions, under the new umbrella term of “climate systems engineering,” which could “position the University at the forefront of this central challenge of reducing and perhaps reversing the harms from climate change.” This would include working on improvements in climate modeling and other computational tools, as well as “novel materials, sensing devices, and chemical strategies for carbon dioxide removal and geo-engineering.”

The report concluded its remarks on climate systems engineering by acknowledging the moral hazard argument against research into geoengineering and arguing that the university should not be cowed by that. It stated that “concerns about reputation and that innovation will incentivize increased greenhouse gas emissions today have prevented many universities from adequately engaging in this area. In many respects, climate systems engineering resembles other instances where UChicago’s fearless commitment to go wherever the facts lead has helped build its intellectual reputation.”

Where some supporters of the university’s initiative see research bravery, other experts see the potential for enabling extraordinarily dangerous interventions in Earth’s climate systems.

Historically, geoengineering has referred to  either taking carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere (carbon removal) or solar radiation management, which could take the form of releasing reflective aerosols into the stratosphere, brightening clouds with salt water, or putting sun shields into space. The University of Chicago  is also including  interventions like glacier geoengineering—using manmade structures to protect ice shelves from warming ocean waters, for example—under the umbrella of climate systems engineering.

While the Climate Systems Engineering initiative will study open system carbon removal, like enhanced rock weathering or ocean alkalinity enhancement, it will not study direct air capture , something Keith worked on at a company he founded, Carbon Engineering. That company was recently purchased by fossil fuel giant Occidental for  $1.1 billion . Occidental will use the captured carbon dioxide, at least in part, to pressurize oil fields and extract more oil from them. The industry considers the technology a kind of lifeline: “If it’s produced in the way that I’m talking about, there’s no reason not to produce oil and gas forever,” Occidental CEO Vicki Hollub  told NPR . (Keith has had no legal involvement with Carbon Engineering since the sale was completed.)

In his 2013 book,  A Case for Climate Engineering , Keith wrote that carbon removal and solar geoengineering are no more similar to one another than they are to technologies that advance decarbonization or energy efficiency.

“My own guess is that if geoengineering works, humanity will not want to phase it out. It will become more agile and provide increasing control, and that will be addictive.”

Among those options for managing climate risk, the ethical, technical, environmental, and governance questions that accompany solar radiation management are unique. “Because solar geoengineering and carbon removal have little in common, we will have a better chance to craft sensible policy if we treat them separately,” Keith wrote.

Keith is now in charge of a program that not only, in a sense, lumps the two technologies together, but also throws in a few others for good measure. “I do feel there’s some level of crow eating because I spent a lot of time arguing how totally separate they are—I’ve even done that in congressional testimony. Now I’m running something that does both,” Keith said. “A lot of people I respect have been lumping them forever. And so sometimes you have to listen to people.”

Open system carbon removal and solar radiation management, Keith added, both raise a lot of complicated environmental and Earth science issues. On the other hand, enhanced rock weathering—spreading finely ground silicates on Earth’s surface to speed up the chemical reactions that pull carbon dioxide from the atmosphere—does not raise the same kind of governance questions as solar radiation management. “Local entities, national governments or state governments, can regulate soil health, more or less, on their own,” Keith explained. “So in that sense, it’s not global the way solar geoengineering would be.”

Other experts have argued the two technologies must be considered as a pair because the arguments in favor of solar geoengineering often depend on the success of large-scale carbon dioxide removal.

One reason that solar geoengineering has received attention recently is because the world has been slow to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, threatening to push global temperatures past the aspirational limit set by the Paris climate agreement.  Keith and others have argued  that solar geoengineering could be a way to limit warming while the world gets around to slashing emissions  and  figures out how to do large-scale carbon dioxide removal from the atmosphere.

Alivisatos echoed that sentiment, telling the  Bulletin , “What this would be doing more than anything else, presumably, is offering one way to have more time.”

“If you have to do geoengineering, you’re saddling the next 1,000 years of humanity with continuing to do it. And that’s a huge intergenerational obligation.”

But Shinichiro Asayama, a researcher at the National Institute for Environmental Studies in Japan, and Mike Hulme, a geographer at the University of Cambridge, have  compared  this strategy to the risky subprime mortgage lending that tanked the world economy between  2007 and 2010 . If solar geoengineering is deployed to compensate for slow emissions reductions, banking on the world’s as-yet unproven ability to do large-scale carbon removal, Hulme and Asayama argue, it will create an ever-increasing “climate debt” that carbon dioxide removal may or may not ever be able to pay back.

Taking on an increasing amount of climate debt could prove to be too easy and seductive, if solar geoengineering were ever successfully deployed. This worries Robert Socolow, a physicist and environmental scientist—and member of the  Bulletin ’s Science and Security Board—known for his work on climate stabilization efforts.

“My own guess is that if geoengineering works, humanity will not want to phase it out,” Socolow told the  Bulletin . “It will become more agile and provide increasing control, and that will be addictive. A limited geoengineering epoch is not something I would bet on. That makes me see deployment as truly fateful, a crossing of the Rubicon, probably permanently changing humanity’s relationship with nature.”

This is a major concern of Pierrehumbert, as well. “If you have to do geoengineering, you’re saddling the next 1,000 years of humanity with continuing to do it,” he said. “And that’s a huge intergenerational obligation, which engages really deep ethical concerns.”

Opinions among University of Chicag o faculty members who spoke to the  Bulletin  about the initiative ranged from cautious enthusiasm to quiet skepticism.

David Archer, a climate scientist in Chicago’s geophysical sciences department and a member of the Climate Systems Engineering initiative board, expressed a kind of desperate optimism about the initiative, pointing out that the Earth is  dangerously near catastrophic climate tipping points , like thawing permafrost and melting ice sheets.

“Climate engineering is very scary. As a scientist, and as a citizen, I want to see this field investigated in a very serious and intentional way.”

“The idea of dialing down the temperature of the whole planet is horrifying,” Archer said. But, he added, it’s not nearly as horrifying as “dialing it up with CO2,” because any sulfates or particles used in solar geoengineering will soon fall out of the atmosphere, whereas carbon dioxide will persist for centuries.

Archer pushed back on critics who fear that the cure could be worse than the disease. “I’m primarily opposed to outdoor release of CO2,” he said. He pointed out that many critics of geoengineering will casually take cross-country or international flights, while he abstains from flying if he can help it. “I’m just so much less frightened about sulfur emissions than CO2 emissions, and everybody is so sanguine about CO2 emissions. I just have trouble taking it it seriously.”

Some of the faculty members I interviewed expressed the opinion that if more research into—and potentially even experimentation with—solar radiation management and other kinds of geoengineering was inevitable, they would rather it take place at the University of Chicago than at a less rigorous institution, or some private start-up.

“We thought, well, this isn’t going away,” said Fred Ciesla, a planetary scientist and former chair of the geophysical sciences department, describing some of the conversations he had with his department colleagues about the program. “Rather than be on the periphery of it, why not bring in people that we trust to take on—like I said, to hold up the research to the standards that we set and expect here at the University of Chicago, and make this a really rigorous investigation, make sure it’s being done with the care that is needed.”

Kidwell pointed out that there are already some efforts to manipulate the climate taking place outside of academia, with great potential for non-governmental actors to engage in risky experiments. Make Sunsets,  a start-up using balloons to release sulfur dioxide gas  into the stratosphere and selling “cooling credits” to fund its work, is one example.

“Climate engineering is very scary,” said Kidwell. “As a scientist, and as a citizen, I want to see this field investigated in a very serious and intentional way. And I want it to be done somewhere where it’s surrounded by scientists, [and] the engineers are not left alone.”

At least one faculty member is already thinking about her responsibilities within an institution that is prioritizing this kind of research. Elisabeth Moyer, an atmospheric scientist at the University of Chicago, submitted a $30 million grant proposal to NASA for a field campaign to take point measurements in the atmosphere over two summers. “And that’s just basic preliminary background that you would want to do before even thinking about doing planetary engineering,” she said, underscoring the magnitude of work that still needs to be done and the associated expense. “The planet is not the same everywhere. The southern hemisphere is very different from the northern hemisphere. We’ve never flown modern instrumentation to study stratospheric aerosols in the southern hemisphere of our own planet.”

Initially, a decision on Moyer’s proposal was delayed because Congress had not passed a budget. Moyer has since learned that NASA rejected the proposal.

“We’re proposing planetary geoengineering, and our government is not capable of passing a budget allocation,” she said, pointing to the kind of governance and implementation hurdles that geoengineering would face even if it were deemed technologically feasible and environmentally safe.

Others were careful to draw a line between solar geoengineering research and implementation.

“I’m a strong proponent of doing the research,” said Robert Rosner, an astrophysicist at the university, former director of the Argonne National Laboratory, a member of the Bulletin’s Board of Sponsors, and part of the group overseeing the Climate Systems Engineering initiative. “I’m not a strong proponent of actually doing it [solar radiation management].”

It is important to learn as much as possible about what geoengineering would entail and what the potential consequences would be, Rosner said, “and to suss out in particular what the unintended consequences could be, what kinds of things could happen that we didn’t really think hard enough about, because we didn’t do the work that’s necessary.”

The two University of Chicago faculty members who expressed greater skepticism about the initiative were unwilling to go on the record with their doubts, but geoengineering critics outside the university had no such reservations.

“In [my book] The New Climate Wars I talk about that nexus of despair and techno-optimism, and geoengineering as weaponized doomism and despair,” said Michael Mann, a climate scientist at the University of Pennsylvania. “The primary thing [that worries me] is the possibility that we could actually accelerate climate changes. You know, we’re not confident enough to know that we couldn’t change regional climate, [and] end up warming the Arctic, parts of the Arctic, even faster, at the expense of cooling the continents, [or] slowing down the hydrological [cycle].”

Mann also fears that researching solar radiation management could derail other climate action. “Why is it that Rex Tillerson says that climate change is an engineering problem?” Mann asked. “Isn’t that convenient that the [former] CEO of ExxonMobil wants us to think that?” He flagged the techno-optimism of wealthy business figures like Bill Gates as a particular concern, for funding technological solutions to climate change while downplaying or rejecting more effective political solutions aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

Gates supports geoengineering research and helped  fund  the aborted Stratospheric Controlled Perturbation Experiment ( SCoPEx ) that David Keith worked on at Harvard. Gates was also  an early investor  in Keith’s direct air capture start-up, Carbon Engineering, and Keith has advised the billionaire on topics related to climate and energy.

These prior efforts might have made Keith an appealing candidate to lead what the University of Chicago committee explicitly said would be an expensive initiative. In their report, the committee wrote, “it is important to note that for UChicago to become a global leader in climate systems engineering, especially geoengineering, it will be necessary to make substantial investment because the field is emergent and largely unrepresented on the University’s campus.”

“If you wanted to do it today or tomorrow you couldn’t, because the technology doesn’t exist. So you’d have to invent airplanes that could fly that high and carry this stuff.”

The university recently was in the news because of the poor state of its finances, and last December, administrators said they planned to reduce the  operating budget by a quarter .

When asked whether the university would partner with private donors or companies, Alivisatos said, “Not ready to say what we’re going to do in that space yet, honestly.”

But he pointed to the University of Chicago’s participation in the Chan Zuckerberg Biohub Chicago, along with University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign and Northwestern University, as an example of “philanthropic dollars that are really being focused for the long-term understanding of something that is deeply important.”

“In my opinion, the great universities will be ones that are good and adept at partnering with other institutions and other stakeholders in society, to help bring everything to bear to make it happen,” Alivisatos added. “And we shouldn’t be afraid of that.”

The government is another potential partner for the program, specifically the US Energy Department’s Argonne National Laboratory, a University of Chicago affiliate, although what that partnership might look like is still up in the air. “We really want [the partnership with Argonne] to work,” Keith said. “I think there’s plenty of people at Argonne who want it to happen. There’s no really substantive thing that’s happening yet.”

Alivisatos was the director of the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory from 2009 to 2016, and as the president of University of Chicago, is currently the chair of the Board of Governors at Argonne.

Whether the world is warming up to the idea of solar geoengineering wasn’t something the people interviewed for this article could agree on. “Things are moving so quickly,” Keith said. “And this feels like a year that’s sort of pivotal, where people’s thinking about this is really changing.”

Last year, the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy issued a  congressionally mandated report  that explored the pros and cons of federal research into solar radiation management, although it explicitly said there are “no plans underway to establish a comprehensive research program focused on solar radiation modification.” A few months later, the UNESCO’s World Commission on the Ethics of Scientific Knowledge and Technology published a report on  the ethics of climate engineering .

Earlier this year, Keith attended  a meeting hosted by the Environmental Defense Fund  that convened several dozen scientists, activists, and philanthropists to discuss an expected infusion of funding into solar geoengineering by techno philanthropists. He also said he’s seen a proposal related to solar geoengineering that EDF made to one of its funders. “Don’t mistake this for me thinking EDF is arguing for implementation, but if they do this, then EDF clearly will be advocating for research in a serious way,” he said.

“People say it might be a slippery slope to deployment. And my answer is, it might be a sticky slope. The more research we do, the more problems we might find.”

Earlier this month, the Environmental Defense Fund’s plans were made public by the  New York Times , which  reported  that the group will spend millions on research of solar geoengineering technologies. The group hopes to begin issuing grants this fall. “We are not in favor, period, of deployment. That’s not our goal here,” Lisa Dilling, the associate chief scientist at EDF running the program, told the  Times . “Our goal is information, and solid, well-formulated science.”

Others pointed out how far solar geoengineering is from being a reality, in spite of the argument Keith made in his 2013 book that it would be easy and cheap and that the “specialized aircraft and dispersal systems required to get started could be deployed in a few years for the price of a Hollywood blockbuster.”

Over a decade later, very little practical progress has been made on that front. “If you wanted to do it, today, or tomorrow, you couldn’t, because the technology doesn’t exist,” Robock said. “So you’d have to invent airplanes that could fly that high and carry this stuff up there.”

Robock—an environmental scientist perhaps best known for his atmospheric modeling work supporting the concept that nuclear war could inject smoke into the stratosphere, cooling Earth and causing “nuclear winter”—thinks that more research is likely to provide even more reasons  not  to do solar geoengineering. “People say it might be a slippery slope to deployment,” he said. “And my answer is, it might be a sticky slope. The more research we do, the more problems we might find.”

It’s hard to reconcile the strong opinions on the relative risks and benefits of solar geoengineering.

Robock, who recently attended the Gordon Research Conference on Climate Engineering, an event he and Keith jointly started, succinctly summed up the quandary: “The number one reason it would be a good idea is if you could reduce global warming, you decrease many of the negative impacts of global warming. The question is, which is riskier: doing it or not doing it?”

Keith still leans towards the latter. “I think, a cold read of the literature is that if you did a relatively small amount, meaning that’s just one of the things you do, as well as emissions cuts, not instead of emissions cuts, and if you balance it between the hemispheres, then I think it’s fair to say that the evidence that the risks would be small compared to the benefits is pretty strong,” Keith said. His calm, matter-of-fact manner and style of writing—his book makes for a compelling read—are persuasive.

But so are the arguments of solar geoengineering skeptics, like Pierrehumbert, who easily lists all the things that could upset anything like Keith’s ideal scenario. If, for example, solar geoengineering is deployed successfully, and it cools the Earth and lessens the impacts of global warming, people may continue emitting carbon dioxide as they do now. Atmospheric carbon dioxide will continue to rise—and remain there for centuries—and the amount of solar geoengineering necessary to counteract it will also increase.

In the meantime, the oceans will continue to absorb large amounts of carbon dioxide, leading to ocean and coastal acidification that, the US  Environmental Protection Agency says , would “affect entire ecosystems, including one animal at the top of the food chain—humans. Humans rely on the ocean for food and other economic resources. Ocean and coastal acidification may not just affect life underwater, but ultimately all of us.”

“Aaron Tang, a scholar of climate governance, has argued that the robust, global system necessary to monitor and manage any implementation of solar geoengineering is a “pipe dream.”

Or say Russia wants to keep its Arctic ports clear of ice, and it introduces countermeasures to interfere with solar geoengineering. If the solar geoengineering that masks global warming is suddenly cut off, that could create a sudden rate of warming called termination shock that could be worse than what the world is experiencing now.

“People say that climate change is different from nuclear war, because it doesn’t set on all at once,” explained Pierrehumbert. “And that’s pretty much true. It’s a sort of a creeping increase. But the one thing that could make the catastrophe of climate change as much of a mega-death/almost-instant-catastrophe as nuclear war is solar geoengineering, and the nightmare scenario where we start deploying it. And then the world uses that as an excuse to continue emitting CO2…and then we have an event which might even be nuclear war, that causes it to stop. And then all that warming instead of playing out over centuries, that warming plays out over a matter of a decade or a half decade.”

Keith has not overlooked these risks. “When I consider geoengineering scenarios that lead to outright disaster, or converse scenarios in which geoengineering is prematurely abandoned despite its social and environmental benefits, all involve geopolitical failures,” he wrote in his 2013 book. He also argued that geoengineering is a geopolitical leveling technology, similar to the internet or nuclear weapons, and that “like other levelers—most notably nuclear proliferation—this fact is disturbing in its potential to lead to international conflict.”

Certainly any future implementation of solar radiation management would require a monumental effort on the part of global leaders to ensure adequate and fair consideration of potential and actual impacts, and to make incredibly difficult decisions about how much cooling to engineer, and exactly how that cooling will be achieved.

Such cooperation would have to continue for decades, if not indefinitely, and it would need to be durable enough to respond—sanely—to the inevitable questions that would arise, like whether a particular natural disaster on one continent could be attributed to climate engineering or to normal climatic variations. Aaron Tang, a scholar of climate governance at the Fenner School of Environment & Society at the Australian National University, has  argued in the  Bulletin  that the robust, global system necessary to monitor and manage any implementation of solar geoengineering is a “pipe dream.”

This challenge was  front and center at the UN Environment Assembly in Nairobi this year . A Swiss resolution called for a working group to assess the feasibility of solar radiation modification, as well as the risks, benefits, and uncertainties of deployment. The United States supported research, but argued it should be conducted by a different mechanism—specifically, within a climate research program at the World Meteorological Organization.

In contrast, a group of African states—including Senegal, Kenya, Cameroon, Djibouti and South Africa, joined by Brazil, Mexico, Columbia, Barbados, Argentina, and Ecuador—called for a moratorium on solar geoengineering. Fiji, Vanuatu, and Pakistan—all extremely climate-vulnerable countries—largely supported that position. This divide underscores the vast challenge of fair and equitable representation and decision-making on solar geoengineering.

Moyer said she hoped that the Climate Systems Engineering initiative would study these governance issues in addition to the science and engineering aspects of climate systems engineering. “I think that an important component of this initiative would be hiring somebody who thinks very hard, in very practical terms, about international negotiations,” she said.

Keith said that he is working to hire someone who is “mostly on the social science side.”

But when it came to specific and concrete goals for the program or the research questions he hopes to tackle, Keith was frustratingly vague. “I should be doing less of my own research,” he said. “I think it’s really important to be getting other people to do stuff, and then they decide what they’re doing. Which sounds kind of evasive.”

He also deflected questions about whether he would encourage or push for outdoor solar geoengineering research, like what he tried to do at Harvard with SCoPEx: “Not me personally, again, because I don’t think I’m going to do a lot of research myself. So I think the answer is, I don’t really know.”

Wherever the University of Chicago initiative leads, it will be into terra incognita—which was a good part of the motivation behind the initiative in the first place.

“Every university has some kind of climate effort now,” said Keith. “Quite apart from what’s good or bad about climate systems engineering or so on, universities do need to figure out how to focus a little bit to do something useful.”

It’s a “much-needed gap in the literature,” said one of the anonymous faculty members. “It is the kind of thing no one really wants to talk about or think about for various reasons. Most people would say that’s appropriate. It’s a needed gap. But it is definitely a gap. And there is no clear leadership there … so it’s a place where focused investment could create a real mark. Making a mark generically on climate change research is hard, a lot of institutions are all over that. There’s huge investment across the world. How are you going to do that? Here’s a way to do that.”

The question is whether boldly going where no other university has gone before is, in this instance, something to be lauded—or cause for extra scrutiny and skepticism. And worry.

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Solar Geoengineering Could Prevent Massive Storms. It Could Also Backfire.

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• Open access
• Published: 22 June 2024

Prevalence of intimate partner violence among Indian women and their determinants: a cross-sectional study from national family health survey – 5

• Sayantani Manna   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0001-9093-1172 1   na1 ,
• Damini Singh   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0002-3574-4398 1   na1 ,
• Manish Barik   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0001-7582-1047 1 ,
• Tanveer Rehman   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0003-2377-4394 1 ,
• Shishirendu Ghosal   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0003-1833-3703 1 ,
• Srikanta Kanungo   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0001-5647-0122 1 &
• Sanghamitra Pati   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0002-7717-5592 1  

BMC Women's Health volume  24 , Article number:  363 ( 2024 ) Cite this article

210 Accesses

Metrics details

Introduction

Intimate partner violence (IPV) can be described as a violation of human rights that results from gender inequality. It has arisen as a contemporary issue in societies from both developing and industrialized countries and an impediment to long-term development. This study evaluates the prevalence of IPV and its variants among the empowerment status of women and identify the associated sociodemographic parameters, linked to IPV.

This study is based on data from the National Family Health Survey (NFHS) of India, 2019-21 a nationwide survey that provides scientific data on health and family welfare. Prevalence of IPV were estimated among variouss social and demographic strata. Pearson chi-square test was used to estimate the strength of association between each possible covariate and IPV. Significantly associated covariates (from univariate logistic regression) were further analyzed through separate bivariate logistic models for each of the components of IPV, viz-a-viz sexual, emotional, physical and severe violence of the partners.

The prevalence of IPV among empowered women was found to be 26.21%. Among those who had experienced IPV, two-thirds (60%) were faced the physical violence. When compared to highly empowered women, less empowered women were 74% more likely to face emotional abuse. Alcohol consumption by a partner was established to be attributing immensely for any kind of violence, including sexual violence [AOR: 3.28 (2.83–3.81)].

Conclusions

Our research found that less empowered women experience all forms of IPV compared to more empowered women. More efforts should to taken by government and other stakeholders to promote women empowerment by improving education, autonomy and decision-making ability.

Peer Review reports

Domestic violence is one of the emerging problems in recent years in both low- and middle-income as well as high-income countries. Gender-based violence, another leading public health problem identified in 1996, is a matter of human rights rooted in gender inequality [ 1 ]. The Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) from 2015, also recognized the importance of gender-based violence, which is an advance step to eliminate gender inequality and women empowerment [ 2 , 3 ]. Intimate partner violence (IPV) is recognized as the most common gender-based violence, which is mostly used as synonymously as domestic or spousal violence but conceptually a subtle difference is present [ 4 ]. IPV affect general health and reproductive health of women, causing chronic pain, injuries, fractures, disabilities, unwanted pregnancy and over expose to contraceptive pills, increasing vulnerability to sexually transmitted diseases [ 5 ]. Such physical and mental strains gradually bring about in the form of post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), anxiety, phobia, depression, alcohol abuse etc [ 6 ].

IPV has become a global public health problem with the consequences of premature deaths and injuries [ 7 ]. World Health Organization (WHO) has recognized IPV as a “global hidden epidemic” [ 8 , 9 ]. Worldwide, one-third of the women have experienced IPV [ 3 ]. Due to stigma and fear Intimate Partner violence (IPV) on married women remain unreported in India [ 10 ]. IPV has been recognized as a criminal offence under Indian Penal Code 498-A since 1983. Victims are offered civil protection under the Protection of Women from Domestic Violence Act (PWDVA) 2005, which covers all forms of physical, mental, verbal, sexual and economic violence (unlawful dowry demands), including marital rape and harassment etc [ 11 , 12 , 13 ]. According to the National Crime Record Bureau’s report, the rate of total crime per lakh ( per lakh defined in the Indian numbering system as equal to one hundred thousand) in the women population is 56.5 [ 14 ].

Evidence suggests IPV is associated with low socioeconomic status and unemployment. Indian-employed women faced IPV at a lower rate [ 15 ], while other researchers have identified it as an increased risk of violence [ 16 ]. Other studies illustrated little consistency between women empowerment and violence across varying cultures, where educational attainment, income, decision-making, and contextual factors all play vital roles individually [ 17 , 18 , 19 ]. On the contrary empowered women and following economic independence act as a shield to domestic violence in high-income countries [ 20 ]. Consequently, women’s empowerment would continue to be perceived as a “zero-sum” game with politically robust beneficiaries and weak losers if it was advocated as a goal in and off itself [ 22 ]. There may be present specific association and management techniques for each sort of IPV which must thus be researched independently [ 15 ]. Hence, in this study, we estimated the prevalence of different IPV categories against empowerment status of women and determined the sociodemographic behaviour associated with IPV.

Overview of data

India is home for more than 1.4 billion population, making this country the second-most populous country in the world [ 23 ]. The National Family Health Survey-5 (NFHS-5), which was conducted in all 28 states and 8 union territories of the country, is representative at the national and state/UT levels, adopted in each survey round. A two-stage sampling was done to choose villages and census enumeration blocks from districts in rural and urban regions, respectively. From June 2019 to April 2021, data were collected using CAPI. (Computer-Assisted Personal Interview) with an internal scheduling and adequate maintenance of respondent anonymity. The NFHS-5 methodology has been extensively explained and published elsewhere, including the methods for choosing households and data collection [ 24 ].

Study population and study design

The design for this research is comparable to a cross-sectional study because the secondary data used here is collected during the two phases of NFHS-5: from June 17, 2019, to January 30, 2020, and from January 2, 2020, to April 30, 2021. Women who lived with their spouses or partners and experienced any event of domestic abuse, ever till the day of the interview, were included. The included observations were then the subject of secondary data analysis.

Sample size

Among the 724,115 women interviewed during the NFHS-5, information was acquired from “never-married” or “ever-married” women aged 18–49 years on their experience of violence committed by their present and previous spouses. Only participants who lived with a partner (married or unmarried) were included in this study ( Fig.  1 ) . As a result, 68,949 women formed the ultimate sample size.

Flow diagram of sample selection from the women’s questionnaire of the NFHS-5

Independent variables

The current study focused on the sociodemographic covariates like age, residence (rural/urban), caste, respondent educational qualification, partner’s educational qualification, religion (four categories: Hindu, Muslim, Christian and other religions), wealth index (five quintiles: poorest, poorer, middle, richer and richest quintile), and women empowerment (three categories: low, medium and high ). Another two sets of covariates were the partner’s habit of alcohol consumption and partner controlling behaviour, both dichotomous, grouped as ‘yes’ or ‘no’.

Levels of women’s empowerment were assessed using three indicators: (1) women’s decision-making ability for the household (including access to healthcare, household purchasing and freedom to visit relatives, spending husband earnings, beating wife refuse to have sex), (2) beating indicators(beating the child, wife when argues or refuse to have sex etc.) (3)controlling indicators (includes if allowed to go to market, health facility, outside the village, is justified if went outside without telling), and (4) five economic indicators explaining ownership of the land, house, working status, having a bank account and if owns a mobile phone. All the selected variables are coded into binary variables 0 and 1. Binary variables were included in the composite index to guarantee consistency, while ordinal variables were recoded into binary variables. Table A1 in the supplementary file describes the final variables and their recorded values.

During principal component analysis (PCA), scree plots were examined to determine the number of components to be retained. The scree plot shows that only five components’ eigenvalue is more than 1, which were further processed [ 4 , 19 , 25 ]. The Kaiser-Meyer-Olkin (KMO) measure of sampling adequacy (greater than 0.04 in the PCA) analysis indicates that the sample sizes in this study were appropriate for PCA (Table A2 in the supplementary file). For all components, Bartlett’s test of sphericity confirms that the selected markers of women’s empowerment were intercorrelated. Furthermore, the reliability coefficient (Cronbach’s alpha score:0.60–0.79) demonstrates an adequate component correlation level. We utilized the first component only after loadings and computing component scores, and the index scores were then divided into quintiles (low, medium, and high). Finally, for each selected nation, an overall index of women’s empowerment was built with three ordered categories: low, medium, and high, where ‘low’ indicated women had lower employment and ‘high’ meant women had more empowerment.

Outcome characteristics: intimate partner violence status

In NFHS-5, a series of questions were asked to collect information on violence committed by the partners, including husbands. It also examines four types of violence faced by women: physical, sexual, emotional, and severe. The level of violence was determined by asking all “ever-married” women if their husbands had ever done the following to them:

• Physical violence

The IPVs which include any physical violence inflicted on a woman by her husband/partner, which provides for: (a) ever slapped; (b) arm twisted /hair pulled; (c) pushed, shaken/had something thrown at them; (d) punched with a fist or hit by something harmful; (e) kicked/dragged; (f) strangled /brunt; (g) threatened with any weapon.

• Sexual violence

The Sexual IPVs were captured by three questions in the dataset: (a) physically forced to have sexual intercourse; (b) physically forced to perform any other sexual acts (c) forced you with threats / in any other way to perform sexual acts.

Emotional violence

Emotional violence recorded by these questions (a) ever having been said /done something to humiliate you in front of others, b) threatened to hurt /harm you or someone close to you, c) insulted you/make you feel bad about yourself.

Severe violence

Severe violence includes physical acts like beatings, choking, burning, and using weapons, as well as sexual violence [ 5 , 26 ]. NFHS-5 asks specific questions to gather this information are a) ever bruises, b) eye injuries, sprains, dislocations or burns, c) severe burns, d) wounds, broken bones, broken teeth or others.

The answer was classified as “never” if the response was “frequently”, “occasionally”, or “yes but not in the previous 12 months”. Except for ‘never,’ all responses to questions on IPVs indicated prior exposure to physical, sexual, emotional, or serious violence. For simplicity, all responses except ‘never’ were coded as Yes = 1 but never as No = 0.

Statistical analysis

Data analysis was conducted in STATA v17.0 (Stata Corp., Texas). The Fig.  2 below presents a conceptual framework for predicting the socioeconomic determinants of IPV in India. Using this framework, IPV can be characterized as a function of the individual, household, and community variables (Fig.  2 ) . We also analyzed weighted profiles of various IPVs among the sociodemographic and expressed them in numbers and proportions. Distribution of the number of IPV among other categorical was presented as frequencies and association in p-value (< 0.002). To account for the complex survey design, we utilized the domestic violence weighting variable (d005) provided in the NFHS data and applied the survey command (svy), which enabled us to weight the data accurately.

For each independent variable, we performed univariate analysis (Table A3 ) and incorporated the variables with significant p-values to the multivariable logistic regression model. To assess the appropriateness of the model fit, we utilized two statistical tests: the AIC BIC test and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test. The diminishing values of AIC and BIC suggest that the model is well-suited for the analysis. Moreover, the Hosmer-Lemeshow test yielded a p-value of > 0.05, which reinforces our conclusion that the model is a suitable fit for this analysis. These preliminary models aimed to establish whether any factors should not be regarded as potential covariates for IPV in the multivariate analysis.

Conceptual framework for the determinants of intimate partner violence

Among the 68,949 women in the study, 26.21% (18,074) experienced intimate partner abuse. Most of them belonged to > 35 years of age (40%), and 46% of women completed secondary-level education [Table A3 (Supplementary file)]. Among 26.21% of women who faced any kind of violence, 60% (11,679) experienced physical violence, 23.87% (4,314) were physically injured due to severe IPV, 2.15% experienced sexual violence, and 9.54% experienced emotional violence (Fig.  3 ).

Distribution of various form of IPV among Indian women

Table  1 shows the sociodemographic profile, which is further classified by the type of violence experienced. A prevalence of 28.39%, among women aged > 35 years was observed for IPV from their partner. In rural areas have the higher incidence of physical IPV at 26%, compared to urban areas. Women belongs to SC caste had the experienced the highest prevalence of IPV. Women with no formal education (39.03%) and less empowered (37.81%) were the most vulnerable to violence. Similarly, 35% of women who didn’t have any formal education had experienced physical abuse by their partner. When the partner is highly educated, IPV was 19% compared to no formal education (41.60%). IPV was almost equally prevalent among Hinduism (27%) and Muslim women (25%) [physical violence (Hindu: 24.40%; Muslim: 21.31%); emotional violence (Hindu: 11.61%; Muslim: 10.94%)]. In the southern region of India, 30% of women have reported experiencing violence.

The distribution of sampled women based on their background characteristics has been presented in Table A4 . The chi-square test is used to assess the strength of association between each socioeconomic variable, and the p-values are provided in the last column of Table A4 . Multivariate regression (Table  2 ) showed a higher chance of experiencing severe IPV among the 25–35 years age-group than the 35–49 years age group with AOR 2.18 (95%CI: 1.69–2.80) in comparison with 15–24 years age group. Respondents who didn’t have any formal education had higher likelihood [AOR = 1.65 (95% CI = 1.35–2.02)] of facing physical violence than women having more than secondary education. Partners with no formal education were significantly associated with any form of violence compared to the highly educated partners. There was 52% greater likelihood among the less empowered women of facing more emotional violence than the highly empowered women. Less empowered women had a significant odd of experiencing sexual violence [AOR:1.92(1.59–2.31)] than that highly empowered women. Relatively higher odds of physical violence were evident from southern [AOR: 2.10 (1.82–2.42)] and eastern [AOR: 1.75(1.51–2.02)] regions, however, sexual violence was highly associated with western [AOR: 1.21 (0.92–1.59)] part of India. Partner’s alcohol drinking was found to be an attributing factor for any form of violence, i.e., emotional violence [AOR: 2.34 (2.09–2.63)], physical violence[AOR: 2.76 (2.52–3.03)] sexual violence [AOR: 3.31 (2.83–3.88)] or severe violence [AOR: 3.38 (2.94–3.89)]. Partner controlling behaviour also evolved as a determining factor for any violence, i.e., emotional violence [AOR:6.63(5.87–7.47)], Physical violence [AOR:3.62(3.33–3.94)] and sexual violence [AOR:6.60(5.53–7.88)].

Our analysis showed a statistically significant increase in physical violence, particularly among women who were less empowered. At the individual level, it has been shown that women are less likely to experience IPV when they are more educated, higher income status, and are empowered. Household-level factors demonstrated that they had significance in intimate partner violence as well as the community-level factors showed the same (i.e., husband’s education, controlling behaviour and drinking Alcohol).

The results of this study demonstrate that a few individual factors strongly explain IPV. For instance, young women who belong to a scheduled caste, being from lower income group and with less level educationwere more likely to experience spousal violence. Previous evidence supported that higher prevalence of IPV is observed among women from Schdule Tribe and Schdeduled Caste [ 27 , 28 ]. Being from lower socioeconomic status also found to be elevating the risk of IPV in women. The literature with the similar evidence confirm that the women from marginal poor segment of society [ 29 , 30 , 31 ] .

Significantly, the more alcohol is consumed, the more nuanced the association between the variables of women empowerment become. According to the findings of this study, women who indicate that their husbands frequently or occasionally consume alcohol have a higher likelihood of experiencing all types of IPV than empowered women who report their husbands never consume alcohol [ 33 , 34 ].

Working women with higher education, on the other hand, experienced higher IPV exposures as compared to their non-working counterparts. The ego considerations of the spouses and gender prejudices in Indian society are likely reasons for any kind of violence [ 35 , 36 , 37 ]. This public health challenge can be addressed by enhancing economic empowerment there by could providing women the awareness and a platform for protest. Given that different levels of social ecology influence spousal violence, interventions at a higher level may be more effective in challenging spousal violence social norms rather than focusing on individual factors, which are difficult to change at the population level and may take decades or generations to be effective.

Strength & limitation

This study used nationally representative data to understand the prevalence of intimate partner violence. It creates an aggregated index of women’s empowerment, providing a more comprehensive view of its relationship with IPV. The NFHS collects a large data set from a representative sample of the country and hence gives a good estimate of marital violence and its relationships with explanatory factors at the population level. However, one of the key drawbacks was its dependence on women’s self-reporting of partner violence. Spousal violence is delicate and intimate in nature, and it is difficult for women to divulge during major survey data collecting due to recall bias and fear of stigmatisation. Further, we were unable to validate the direction of causation and the causative mechanism of domestic and Intimate Partner violence in India using this cross-sectional data. In addition, our composite measure of women’s empowerment index was not strong by conventional statistical standards.

Finally, the implications of the findings are constrained because the data supplied only allowed for the examination of heterosexual relationships [ 39 ]. It should be emphasized, however, that monogamous heterosexual partnerships are the norm in India, signifying a larger reach in terms of generalizability.

Implication

This study has numerous significant policy consequences. This study provides recent evidence for understanding the underlying factors of IPV in India, where wife-beating is high, women’s decision-making power is limited, and male-dominated cultures prevail across the country, though to varying degrees from rigid gender norms. Women’s empowerment, which in turn could ease the risk of IPV and domestic violence, may be enhanced by economic interventions such as conditional cash transfers gender sensitization workshops, media, and cultural campaigns and microcredit programs [ 40 ].

The findings of this study highlight the need to enhance girls’ education, increasing women empowerment, equity in society by eliminating harmful socio-cultural practises. Nevertheless, sole reliance on economic empowerment falls short in ensuring the comprehensive protection of women. Interventions aimed at empowering women must engage with couples as units and operate at the community level, addressing issues of equal job opportunities and gender-specific roles to be effective.

Data availability

The dataset generated during and/or analyzed during the current study is available from the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) repository (with proper permission), Available at: https://www.dhsprogram.com/data/dataset/India_Standard-DHS_2020.cfm?flag=0 .

Abbreviations

National family health survey

Ministry of health and family welfare

Union territory

• Intimate partner violence

Sustainable development goals

Principal component analysis

Adjusted odds ratio

Confidence interval

World health organization

Post-traumatic stress disorder

Demographic health survey

Computer-assisted personal interview

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Acknowledgements

We sincerely thank Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) and the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare (MoHFW) for providing the NFHS-5 dataset.

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Sayantani Manna and Damini Singh contributed equally to this work.

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Sayantani Manna, Damini Singh, Manish Barik, Tanveer Rehman, Shishirendu Ghosal, Srikanta Kanungo & Sanghamitra Pati

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TR, SK and SP conceived the study. TR and SK developed the analytical framework. SM, DS and MB performed the analysis, produced results and drafted manuscript. SK, TR and SG monitored the analysis. All Authors edited the manuscript. SP provided overall guidance and supervised the study.

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Manna, S., Singh, D., Barik, M. et al. Prevalence of intimate partner violence among Indian women and their determinants: a cross-sectional study from national family health survey – 5. BMC Women's Health 24 , 363 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1186/s12905-024-03204-x

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Quantifying environmental impact of unplanned mining through integrated non-invasive geophysical methods: a case study from Jharia coalfield, India

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• Published: 27 June 2024
• Volume 83 , article number  411 , ( 2024 )

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• Soumyashree Debasis Sahoo   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0002-8505-8281 1 , 2 ,
• Sanjit Kumar Pal 2 ,
• Vivek Vikash 2 ,
• Satya Narayan 2 , 3 ,
• Rajwardhan Kumar 2 ,
• Saurabh Srivastava 2 &
• R. M. Bhattacharjee 4  

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The Jharia coalfield stands as a paramount asset within the Indian economy. However, many pressing issues, such as coal fires, land subsidence, unplanned mining, child labor, deforestation, and air pollution, demand immediate attention. Effective planning and comprehensive mitigation strategies are imperative to address these challenges. This research centers on evaluating an area near Bhuiyadih village subjected to rat hole mining using non-invasive geophysical methods. The evaluation includes a joint analysis of multiple geophysical techniques, such as gravity, magnetic, and seismic surface wave methods. The potential data has been evaluated by generating edge detection, upward continuation maps, and radial average power spectrum (RAPS) plots. Seismic surface wave velocity structure has been evaluated and used as a constraint to model the subsurface structures using potential field data. Evaluating subsurface layers from the RAPS, Seismic surface wave model, and 2D model generated from the potential data indicates a weathered layer, an overburden sandstone layer, and a coal seam of thickness ~ 4.5 m, ~ 14 m, and ~ 11 m, respectively. The wideness of the gallery boundary has been evaluated using the composite lineament map and found to be surpassing approved limits for underground mining, signifying evidence of rat hole mining practices. The thin pillars in the coal seam and fractures observed on the surface indicate the failure of overburdened rock masses, leading to land subsidence in the nearby villages. The study reinforces the urgency of shifting the local population to a safer environment to avoid unfortunate situations.

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Acknowledgements

The authors are grateful to the Editorial Team, Environmental Earth Sciences and the distinguished anonymous reviewers for their quick, comprehensive review and thoughtful suggestions for improving the manuscript. The authors would like to express their gratitude to the Director of the Indian Institute of Technology (Indian School of Mines), Dhanbad, as well as the Head of the Department of Applied Geophysics at IIT (ISM), Dhanbad, for their enthusiastic support and interest in this research study. The authors are also thankful to the Director of Indian Institute of Technology, Bhubaneswar and the Head of the school of Earth, Ocean and Climate Sciences at IIT, Bhubaneswar for their support in completing this study. Furthermore, the authors would like to extend their appreciation to Bharat Coking Coal Limited (BCCL) for their valuable assistance in providing essential information during the process of field data acquisition. The authors are thankful to the Ministry of Coal Govt. of India for funding S&T project CMPDI/B&PRO/MT-173; ISRO, Dept. of Space, Govt. of India, for funding project ISRO/RES/630/2016–17; and Department of Science and Technology, Govt. of India for funding project nos. SB/S4/ES-640/2012, FST/ES-I/2017/12, DST/ TDT/SHRI-16/2021(C &G).

The authors declare that no funds, grants, or other support were received during the preparation of this manuscript.

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School of Earth, Ocean and Climate Sciences, Indian Institute of Technology, Bhubaneswar, Odisha, India

Soumyashree Debasis Sahoo

Department of Applied Geophysics, Indian Institute of Technology (ISM), Dhanbad, Jharkhand, 826004, India

Soumyashree Debasis Sahoo, Sanjit Kumar Pal, Vivek Vikash, Satya Narayan, Rajwardhan Kumar & Saurabh Srivastava

Oil and Natural Gas Limited (ONGC) Govt. of India, Dehradun, India

Satya Narayan

Department of Mining Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology (ISM), Dhanbad, 826004, India

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Soumyashree Debasis Sahoo: conceptualization; methodology; writing—original draft preparation; data preparation; interpretation; supervision; review and editing. Sanjit Kumar Pal: conceptualization; methodology; formal analysis and investigation; writing—review and editing; interpretation; supervision. Vivek Vikash: writing—methodology; review and editing; data preparation. Satya Narayan: writing—formal analysis and investigation; review and editing; data preparation; interpretation. Rajwardhan Kumar: data preparation. Saurabh Srivastava: data preparation. R M Bhattacharjee: formal analysis; interpretation and supervision.

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Sahoo, S.D., Pal, S.K., Vikash, V. et al. Quantifying environmental impact of unplanned mining through integrated non-invasive geophysical methods: a case study from Jharia coalfield, India. Environ Earth Sci 83 , 411 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-024-11719-7

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Received : 02 September 2023

Accepted : 16 June 2024

Published : 27 June 2024

DOI : https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-024-11719-7

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