essay on covid 19 impact on indian economy

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Impact of Covid-19 on The Indian Economy

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Published: Feb 8, 2022

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Introduction.

• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_India
• https://www.researchgate.net/publication/341266520_Effect_of_COVID-19_on_the_Indian_Economy_and_Supply_Chain
• https://etinsights.et-edge.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/KPMG-REPORT-compressed.pdf

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How has Covid-19 affected India’s economy?

India has been hit hard by the pandemic, particularly during the second wave of the virus in the spring of 2021. the sharp drop in gdp is the largest in the country’s history, but this may still underestimate the economic damage experienced by the poorest households..

From April to June 2020, India’s GDP dropped by a massive 24.4%. According to the latest national income estimates , in the second quarter of the 2020/21 financial year (July to September 2020), the economy contracted by a further 7.4%. The recovery in the third and fourth quarters (October 2020 to March 2021) was still weak, with GDP rising 0.5% and 1.6%, respectively. This means that the overall rate of contraction in India was (in real terms) 7.3% for the whole 2020/21 financial year.

In the post-independence period, India's national income has declined only four times before 2020 – in 1958, 1966, 1973 and 1980 – with the largest drop being in 1980 (5.2%). This means that 2020/21 is the worst year in terms of economic contraction in the country’s history, and much worse than the overall contraction in the world (Figure 1).

The decline is solely responsible for reversing the trend in global inequality, which had been falling but has now started to rise again after three decades ( Deaton, 2021 ; Ferreira, 2021 ).

Figure 1: Economic contraction in India and the world during Covid-19

Source: world economic outlook, international monetary fund, april 2021. note: the gross domestic product (gdp) per capita, constant prices is measured at purchase power parity; 2017 international dollars. the gdp per capita of each series is normalised to 100 in 2011. we use population-weighted average as the aggregation method., what do the main macroeconomic indicators tell us about india’s economy during the pandemic.

While economies worldwide have been hit hard, India has suffered one of the largest contractions. During the 2020/21 financial year, the rates of decline in GDP for the world were 3.3% and 2.2% for emerging market and developing economies. Table 1 summarises macroeconomic indicators for India, along with a reference group of comparable countries and the world. The fact that India’s growth rate in 2019 was among the highest makes the drop due to Covid-19 even more noticeable.

Comparing national unemployment rates in 2020, India’s rate of 7.1% indicates that it has performed relatively poorly – both in terms of the world average and compared with a set of reference group economies with similar per capita incomes. Unemployment rates were more muted within the reference group economies and were also kept low by generous labour market policies to keep people in work.

Despite the scale of the pandemic, additional budgetary allocation to various social safety measures has been relatively low in India compared with other countries. Although the country might look comparable to the reference group in non-health sector measures, the additional health sector fiscal measures are less than half those in the reference group. More worryingly, the Indian government's announced allocation in the 2021 budget for such measures does not show an increase, once inflation is taken into account.

Table 1: Summary of key macroeconomic indicators

Source: Data on gross domestic product, constant prices (percentage change) is obtained from the World Economic Outlook Database April 2021, International Monetary Fund . Note: India’s GDP contraction is 8%, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and 7.3% from recent national estimates. Unemployment rates (for youth, adults: 15+) are ILO-modelled estimates as of November 2021 and are obtained from ILOSTAT, International Labour Organization (ILO) and World Bank . Fiscal measures are obtained from Fiscal Monitor Database of Country Fiscal Measures in Response to the COVID-19 Pandemic as of April 2021, International Monetary Fund . The ‘reference group’ refers to the closest peer group statistic under which India falls. The reference group for GDP per capita is the emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) classification by the IMF. The reference group for the unemployment rate is the low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) classification by the World Bank. The reference group for the fiscal measures is the EMDEs classification by the IMF. See Ghatak and Raghavan (forthcoming) for a comparison of India’s economic and health performance against the reference group.

How has covid-19 changed income, consumption, poverty and unemployment in india.

While the macroeconomic statistics provide a snapshot of India’s economic position, they hide the large and unequal effects on households and workers within the country.

Both wealth and income inequality has been on the rise in India ( Ghatak, 2021 ). Estimates suggest that in 2020, the top 1% of the population held 42.5% of the total wealth, while the bottom 50% had only 2.5% of the total wealth ( Oxfam, 2020 ). Post-pandemic, the number of poor in India is projected to have more than doubled and the number of people in the middle class to have fallen by a third ( Kochhar, 2021 ).

During India’s first stringent national lockdown between April and May 2020, individual income dropped by approximately 40%. The bottom decile of households lost three months’ worth of income ( Azim Premji University, 2021 ; Beyer et al, 2021 ).

Microdata from the largest private survey in India, CMIE’s ‘Consumer Pyramids Household Survey’ (CPHS), show that per capita consumption spending dropped by more than GDP, and did not return to pre-lockdown levels during periods of reduced social distancing. Average per capita consumption spending continued to be over 20% lower after the first lockdown (in August 2020 compared with August 2019), and remained 15% lower year-on-year by the end of 2020.

Official poverty data are unavailable, and the CPHS data come with a caveat of ‘top’ and ‘bottom exclusions’. For example, official statistics show a rural headcount ratio of 35% in 2017/18 ( Subramanian, 2019 ). But the CPHS data estimate it at 25%, which suggests exclusions at the lower end of the consumption distribution ( Dreze and Somanchi, 2021 ).

Despite these statistical concerns, the CPHS does provide consumption numbers for a large sample of individuals, which can provide insights into changes in consumption levels arising from the pandemic.

Table 2 reports the percentage of people who have monthly consumption expenditure below different cut-off values. The different cut-offs encompass the official poverty lines (which, in any case, have been considered too low by some commentators). The current rural poverty line is set at 1,600 rupees (£15.50) per month or over, and the urban poverty line is 2,400 rupees per month (£23.37) or over.

Based on the latest CPHS data, rural poverty increased by 9.3 percentage points and urban poverty by over 11.7 percentage year-on-year from December 2019 to December 2020. Earlier months of the CPHS show that rural poverty increased by 14.2 percentage points and urban poverty by 18.1 percentage points. Yet the actual increase in poverty due to Covid-19 is likely to be higher than what the CPHS data suggest, as indicated by other surveys .

Table 2: Percentage of individuals by monthly consumption expenditure

Source: Consumer Pyramids Household Survey (CPHS) for December 2019 and December 2020, and for August 2019 and August 2020. Notes: Estimates for consumption are calculated by dividing household adjusted total expenditure by household size and weighted using member level country weights. Adjusted total expenditure is the sum total of all consumption goods and services purchased by the household during a month, adjusted using weekly records. Real values are adjusted for inflation using the MOSPI CPI (IW) for urban workers and CPI (AL) for rural workers (Base 2012=100). Headcount ratio is the percentage of individuals who are below the poverty line in urban and rural areas in each year. Poverty line is the inflation-adjusted poverty line in rural areas (Rs 972 in 2011-12 prices) and urban areas (Rs 1410 in 2011-12 prices), which are adjusted to 2012 prices with the RBI CPI(AL) and CPI(IW) for 2011/12-2012/13 respectively. All figures are in December 2019 values and observations with missing regions are dropped. Despite a much larger sample in urban areas, the CPHS also underestimates mean per capita consumption in urban areas, which is likely to reflect their inability to survey high-income urban households. From the draft National Sample Survey Organisation (NSSO) Report on Household Consumer Expenditure for 2017-18, the CPHS estimate of mean per capita consumption in urban areas was 0.8 of the NSSO level for 2017-18. For rural areas, the CPHS estimate is 1.1 of the NSSO level.

Taking into account the general trend of reduction in poverty, an estimated 230 million people in India have fallen into poverty as a result of the first wave of the pandemic ( Azim Premji University, 2021 ).

Table 3 shows that households in the middle of the pre-Covid-19 CPHS consumption distribution saw large drops in spending after the first wave of the pandemic, helping to create a new set of people entering poverty.

The percentage of poor people in the second lowest quintile of pre-Covid-19 consumption jumped from 32% to 60% within a year. This was driven largely by rural areas, where the headcount ratio for the second quintile almost doubled.

In urban areas, the poverty line is set higher due to greater living costs and 72% of people in the second quintile of the urban income distribution were below this poverty line before the pandemic. Within a year, they were joined in urban poverty by many who had higher incomes before. Half of people in the third quintile and 29% of people in the fourth quintile fell below the poverty line after the pandemic.

This sharp rise in poverty after the first lockdown is consistent with a variety of surveys that highlighted the depth of the crisis ( Azim Premji University, 2021 ). Year-on-year urban unemployment rate jumped from 8.8% in April to June 2019 to a staggering 20.8% in April to June 2020 ( Government of India National Statistical Office, 2020 ).

Table 3: Percentage of individuals who are below the poverty line in middle quintiles of pre-Covid-19 consumption expenditure, August 2019 to August 2020

Source: Consumer Pyramids Household Survey (CPHS) for August 2019 and August 2020. Notes: Quintiles are based on 2019 mean per capita consumption levels for each region type. Consumption levels are calculated by dividing household adjusted total expenditure by household size and weighted using member level country weights. Adjusted total expenditure is the sum total of all consumption goods and services purchased by the household during a month, adjusted using weekly records. Real values are adjusted for inflation using the MOSPI CPI (IW) for urban workers and CPI (AL) for rural workers (Base 2012=100). All figures are in December 2019 values and observations with missing regions are dropped.

The pandemic has brought severe economic hardship, especially to young individuals who are over-represented in informal work. India has a large share of young people in its workforce and the pandemic has put them at heightened risk of long-term unemployment. This has negative impacts on lifelong earnings and employment prospects ( Machin and Manning, 1999 ).

A study by the Centre for Economic Performance (CEP at the London School of Economics) analyses the depth of continuing joblessness among younger workers in the low-income states of Bihar, Jharkhand and Uttar Pradesh (see Table 4, Dhingra and Kondirolli, 2021 ).

The first round of the survey randomly sampled urban workers aged 18-40 during the first lockdown quarter, finding that a majority of them who had work before the pandemic were left with no work or no pay. After the first lockdown in April to June 2020, 20% of those sampled were out of work, another 9% were employed but had zero hours of work and 81% had no work or pay at all.

Ten months on from the first lockdown quarter, 8% of the sample continued to be out of work, another 8% were working zero hours, and 40% had no work or no pay. The rate of no work or no pay was higher (at 47%) among the youngest low-income individuals (those aged 18-25 who had below median pre-Covid-19 earnings).

Table 4: Crisis labour force status of individuals who were employed pre-Covid-19: recontact sample of individuals interviewed during the first lockdown (April to June 2020) and before the second wave (January to March 2021)

Source: CEP-LSE Survey 2020 and 2021. Note: Out of work last week and zero hours last week are indicators for individuals who were unemployed in the week preceding the survey and employed but working zero hours in the week before the survey respectively. Not paid is an indicator for individuals who received no pay in April 2020 in the column of April to June 2020 and those who received no pay during January to March 2021 in all other columns. Median earnings are constructed using average earnings in January and February 2020. 18-25 refers to individuals who are between 18 to 25 years of age at the time of the first survey.

The recovery after the first wave was too muted to get many young Indian workers back into employment. For example, rural migrants continued to be reluctant to return to work in urban areas even before the second wave hit ( Imbert, 2021 ). And the second wave, which started in mid-February and appears to be flattening out in June 2021, heightened these risks of long-term unemployment by increasing the spells of economic inactivity.

What do public health indicators reveal about the impact of Covid-19 on India’s economy?

To avoid another livelihood crisis, India turned to local lockdowns during the second wave of the pandemic. Before the second wave, India’s public health performance (in terms of confirmed cases and confirmed deaths), while not the best, was ahead of several reference group countries. But the second wave has made India’s position significantly worse. The total confirmed cases per million now are comparable to those in the rest the world and the rate of vaccination is lower in India.

While death rates seem lower in India, there is massive underreporting. After accounting for the underreporting within official statistics, India’s total confirmed cases and deaths might exceed that of the rest of the world by a large margin (Gamio and Glanz, 2021).

In the conservative scenario, the total confirmed cases per million are about 13 times larger than in the rest of the world, and the total confirmed deaths per million are about 85% of that in the rest of the world. In the worst-case scenario, India is far behind the rest of the world.

There is an important caveat: while the focus of this article is on India, underreporting of Covid-19 cases and deaths is prevalent globally ( Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, 2021 ).

How has India fared so far?

More than a year has passed since India’s first national lockdown was announced. There was talk of a trade-off between lives and livelihoods when the Covid-19 crisis erupted last year. As India struggles in the second wave, it is clear that the country did poorly in both dimensions.

While India’s policy response was strong in terms of some aspects of lockdown stringency, it was ineffective in dealing with both the public health and economic aspects of the crisis. What’s more, it failed to limit the damaging impact of the crisis on the most vulnerable sections of the population.

Where can I find out more?

• State of working in India 2021 : Report from Azim Premji University’s Centre for Sustainable Employment on the effects of Covid-19 on jobs, incomes, inequality and poverty.
• City of dreams no more – The impact of Covid-19 on urban workers in India: Briefings from the Centre for Economic Performance.
• India needs a second wave of relief measures : Jean Drèze discusses the humanitarian and economic case for further support.
• Covid-19 articles from Debraj Ray .
• India COVID-19 chartbook : A series of charts on the effects of the pandemic in India from HSBC Global Research.
• India’s already-stressed rural economy is getting battered by the second wave of Covid-19 : Rohit Inani examines the crisis in India and calls for urgent relief measures.

Who are experts on this question?

• Amit Basole , Azim Premji University
• Swati Dhingra , LSE
• Maitreesh Ghatak , LSE
• Debraj Ray , New York University
• S. Subramanian , Independent Researcher
• Sanchari Roy , King's College London

Authors: Swati Dhingra and Maitreesh Ghatak

Swati thanks the erc for starting grant 760037. the authors would like to thank ramya raghavan and fjolla kondirolli for research assistance, photo by shubhangee vyas on unsplash.

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Impact of Covid-19 on Indian economy

The Impact of Covid-19 on Indian Economy

As per the official data released by the ministry of statistics and program implementation, the Indian economy contracted by 7.3% in the April-June quarter of this fiscal year. This is the worst decline ever observed since the ministry had started compiling GDP stats quarterly in 1996. In 2020, an estimated 10 million migrant workers returned to their native places after the imposition of the lockdown. But what was surprising was the fact that neither the state government nor the central government had any data regarding the migrant workers who lost their jobs and their lives during the lockdown.

The government extended their help to migrant workers who returned to their native places during the second wave of the corona, apart from just setting up a digital-centralized database system. The second wave of Covid-19 has brutally exposed and worsened existing vulnerabilities in the Indian economy. India’s $2.9 trillion economy remains shuttered during the lockdown period, except for some essential services and activities. As shops, eateries, factories, transport services, business establishments were shuttered, the lockdown had a devastating impact on slowing down the economy. The informal sectors of the economy have been worst hit by the global epidemic. India’s GDP contraction during April-June could well be above 8% if the informal sectors are considered. Private consumption and investments are the two biggest engines of India’s economic growth. All the major sectors of the economy were badly hit except agriculture. The Indian economy was facing headwinds much before the arrival of the second wave. Coupled with the humanitarian crisis and silent treatment of the government, the covid-19 has exposed and worsened existing inequalities in the Indian economy. The contraction of the economy would continue in the next 4 quarters and a recession is inevitable. Everyone agrees that the Indian economy is heading for its full-year contraction. The surveys conducted by the Centre For Monitoring Indian Economy shows a steep rise in unemployment rates, in the range of 7.9% to 12% during the April-June quarter of 2021. The economy is having a knock-on effect with MSMEs shutting their businesses. Millions of jobs have been lost permanently and have dampened consumption. The government should be ready to spend billions of dollars to fight the health crisis and fast-track the economic recovery from the covid-19 instigated recession. The most effective way out of this emergency is that the government should inject billions of dollars into the economy.

The GDP growth had crashed 23.9% in response to the centre’s no notice lockdown. India’s GDP shrank 7.3% in 2020-21. This was the worst performance of the Indian economy in any year since independence. As of now, India’s GDP growth rate is likely to be below 10 per cent.

The Controller General of Accounts Data for the centre’s fiscal collection indicates a gross-tax revenue (GTR) of rupees 20 lakh crore and the net tax revenue of rupees 14 lakh crore for 2020-21. The tax revenue growth will be 12 per cent, which would mean the projected gross and the net tax revenues for 2020-21 would be rupees 22.7 lakh crore and 15.8 lakh crore respectively.

This suggests some additional net tax revenues to the centre amounting to rupees 0.35 lakh crores as compared to the budget magnitudes. The main expected shortfall may still be in the non-tax revenues and the non-debt capital receipts. If we look down in the past, the growth rate for the non-tax revenues and non-debt capital receipts have been volatile, but if we add them together, they average to a little lower than 15% during the five years preceding 2020-21.

How have different sectors been affected due to Covid-19?

Hospitality Sector:

As many states have imposed localised lockdowns, the hospitality sector is facing a repeat of 2020. The hospitality sector includes many businesses like restaurants, beds and breakfast, pubs, bars, nightclubs and more. The sector that has contributed to a large portion of India’s annual GDP has been hit hard by restrictions and curfews imposed by the states.

Tourism Sector:

The hospitality sector is linked to the tourism sector. The sector that employs millions of Indians started bouncing back after the first wave, but the second wave of covid was back for the devastation! The tourism sector contributes nearly 7% to India’s annual GDP.

It comprises hotels, homestays, motels and more. The restrictions due to the second wave have crippled the tourism sector, which was already struggling to recover from the initial loss suffered by the businesses in 2020.

Aviation and Travel sector:

Aviation and other sector establishments faced a massive struggle during the second wave of the pandemic. The larger travel sector is also taking a hit as people are scared to step out of their homes. For airlines and the broader travel sector, its recovery will depend on whether people in future will opt for such services. At present, the outlook for the aviation and broader travel sector does not look good.

Automobile sector:

The automobile sector is expected to remain under pressure in the near term due to the covid-19 situation in India.

Real Estate and Construction sector:

The real estate and construction activities have started facing a disruption during the second wave as a large number of migrant workers have left the urban areas. The situation has not been grave as of 2020 for this sector.

Fiscal Deficit:

The Covid-19 pandemic has not affected our fiscal deficit and disinvestment target much. In this year’s union budget, Finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman announced a fiscal deficit target of 6.8% for 2021 to 2022. India’s fiscal deficit for 2020-21 zoomed to 9.5% of GDP as against 3.5% projected earlier. Our finance minister has promised to achieve a fiscal deficit of 4.5% of GDP by 2025-26 by increasing the steaming tax revenues through increased tax compliance as well as asset monetization over the years. According to the medium-term fiscal policy statement that the government had presented in February 2020, the fiscal deficit for 2021-22 and 2022-23 was at 3.3% and 3.1% respectively.

The impact of the lockdowns and restrictions:

The extent to which localised lockdowns and restrictions have been imposed in the past have impacted the economic recovery timeliness. There is a scope for sustained fiscal stimulus going throughout the year. To some extent, if credit is made available to businesses at low-interest rates, then monetary stimulus is also possible. The second wave has pushed back India’s fragile economic recovery. Rising inequality and strained household balance sheets have constrained the recovery. From growing only 4% in 2019-20 to contracting  7-8% in 2020-21 to staring at another low economic growth recovery in 2021, India has been virtually stopped in all its tracks. Therefore, fiscal policy must lend a generous helping hand to lead vulnerable businesses and households towards economic recovery.

What is the path to recovery?

If the outbreak worsens over time, or if the case numbers are very high, this would elevate the risk to India’s economic and fiscal recovery. The Indian economy should resume its recovery once the covid waves recede and the Indian economy will continue to grow at a faster pace than its peers at similar levels of per capita income around the world. On the downside, there will be less vigorous recoveries in the government revenues and severe downside scenarios may entail additional fiscal spending. Commodities and the automobile sector are severely affected by the initial stream of infections and associated lockdown measures. It recovered strongly in the second half of 2021.

The recovery in the global economy has made it unlikely that a sharp price decline like 2020 will happen again. The pent up demand in the automobile sector will likely drive a strong recovery when curbs are relaxed as was seen in 2020. The second wave of covid-19 has challenged an otherwise strong recovery for Indian Infrastructure. As consumers strive to maximize their utility, they will maintain earning due to regulated returns, fixed tariffs and quick recovery in demand. Airports are most at risk with international traffic recovery likely delayed by another year. This may impede a strong domestic recovery if the government increases the severity and scope of restrictions on mobility. A strong recovery is needed after a crushing 2020. As the outbreak grew worse the state governments have applied restrictive lockdown measures that halted the budding economic recovery in tracks.

Downgrades are a warning not to take economic recovery for granted. The slow pace of vaccinations is likely to be a burden on India’s economic recovery. The Indian recovery has been vigorous across many sectors particularly in the last quarter of fiscal 2021. Halts to domestic air traffic and subdued international travel have dismantled recovery for airports. The covid wave has hit small and medium-size enterprises particularly hard. It has delayed recovery in banks’ asset quality. Mobility has been down to 50-60% of the normal levels. Therefore, people are staying home more and spending less. Recovery will take hold later this year. India’s budding economic recovery throughout March solidified government revenues.

Power Sector: The Indian power sector will generate huge revenues and it would track the recovery of the GDP of India.

Airports: The second wave has threatened India’s air recovery traffic. The domestic passenger traffic has decreased by 75% of the pre-covid levels. The traffic recovery in the worst-case scenario could be 10% lower than what is predicted. Weaker traffic hits the cash flows of the airports. There will be a sharp recovery in road traffic after a short disruption. The commercial vehicle traffic will see better resilience as it supports logistics and essential services.

Ports: A modest recovery will be witnessed by import volumes. Fertilizers and containers will increase at a greater pace than crude and coal segments.

Operating cash flows will recover most infrastructure and utilities such as water, sewage, dams and natural gas segments. Credit loss will remain high in the fiscal year 2022 at 2.2% of the total loans before it recovers to 1.8% in 2023. India’s strong economic recovery and the steps taken by the central governments and the state government to mitigate the effects of the economic crisis have lessened the burden on the banks. Additionally, banks have raised capitals to strengthen their balance sheets. This will smoothen the hit from covid related losses. The weak consumption accompanied by large scale job losses and the salary cuts in the formal sector may hit the banking sector’s loans and ‘credit card’ loans. This is accompanied by lower recovery rates in the bank’s non-performing assets. That could lead to a rise in weaker loans.

If we have to move towards sustained and real economic growth against v-shaped, k-shaped or w-shaped paths, the states and the centre need to work towards a cooperative strategy through their “cooperative federalism” scheme to increase the vaccination drive.

Last year, the government chose life over livelihoods. By choosing to protect the former, the covid 1.0 was delayed in September and its intensity was much lower than predicted. By January 2021, the government had declared victory over covid-19. The first threat to economic recovery is the regional cases which are resulting in further extension of lockdowns and hence they are limiting the pace of economic recovery. The second threat is the vaccination rates arising from the vaccine supply. Without inoculating a major portion of our labour force, there is a threat that viruses will disrupt our real economy. It is apparent from the worldwide cases of Covid-19.

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Impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) on the Indian economy - statistics & facts

After reporting its first case in late January 2020 in the southern state of Kerala, India introduced rigorous airport screenings for the coronavirus (COVID-19). The following weeks saw a quick succession of events leading to a suspension of all travel in and out of the country by March 22 that year. While infections continued to increase during this period, Indians were now confined to their homes to contain the spread of the virus. The announcement did not come without chaos – it created widespread panic, specifically among lower classes of society including farmers and migrant workers who were left stranded and jobless overnight from their faraway homes and no mode of transport. Despite the government announcing a relief package of 1.7 trillion rupees , it was clear that a large portion of the country’s population was going to be scouring for livelihoods. Economists slashed GDP rates for the foreseeable future due to the obvious impact of the lockdown. However, it was also estimated that the country might bounce back quickly because its industry composition, with unorganized markets being largely dominant. Losses from organized sectors amounted to an estimated nine trillion rupees in late March, projected to increase with the prolonging of the lockdown. Unsurprisingly, the most affected industries included services and manufacturing, specifically travel & tourism, financial services, mining and construction, with declining rates of up to 23 percent between April and June 2020. Towards the end of 2020, however, India saw some semblance of recovery across certain sectors. This was a result of easing restrictions, controlled infection rates and the festive season between October and November 2020. The pandemic came with uncertainty and implications on all aspects of business across the world. Despite India being ahead of most countries in being able to implement work-from-home measures, specifically in white collar work, job and earning deficits , along with instability in prices was expected. The months of the lockdown resulted in the free fall of employment, which slowly stabilized after the economy steadied in most parts of the country. Segments including consumer retail expected to see sharp falls ranging between three and 23 percent depending on the market. For the big players across segments, this meant operating at less than full capacity to keep afloat. For small businesses , however, it depended on how long they could ride out the storm. Overall, the pandemic changed daily lifestyles drastically . Economic activity started to take a hit yet again since March 2021, as the country faced its second wave of the pandemic . As a result, GDP forecasts were expected to fall, putting losses at over 38 billion U.S. dollars if local lockdowns continued till June 2021. Unprecedented numbers in terms of infections and deaths recorded across the country led to another set of lockdowns in some parts, burdening the healthcare system in the midst of government controversy. International aid in the form of oxygen cylinders, PPE kits, ventilators along with funding was being sent from various countries to what looked like a dire situation. This text provides general information. Statista assumes no liability for the information given being complete or correct. Due to varying update cycles, statistics can display more up-to-date data than referenced in the text. Show more - Description Published by Statista Research Department , Dec 19, 2023

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Estimated quarterly impact from COVID-19 on India's GDP FY 2020-2022

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Estimated economic impact from COVID-19 on services in India Q2 2020-Q3 2021

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Estimated economic impact from COVID-19 on industry in India 2020

COVID-19 impact on labor participation rate in India 2020-2022

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Key indicators.

• Basic Statistic Estimated quarterly impact from COVID-19 on India's GDP FY 2020-2022
• Premium Statistic COVID-19 impact on estimated income group in India 2021, by type
• Premium Statistic Estimated cost due to COVID-19 on economy in India 2020
• Premium Statistic Estimated economic cost of Maharashtra COVID-19 lockdown India 2021, by sector
• Premium Statistic COVID-19 impact on GDP forecast India FY 2021, by agency
• Premium Statistic Impact from COVID-19 on India's exports 2021, by commodity
• Premium Statistic Impact from COVID-19 on India's imports 2022, by commodity

Estimated quarterly impact from COVID-19 on India's GDP FY 2020-2022

Estimated quarterly impact from the coronavirus (COVID-19) on India's GDP growth in financial year 2020 to 2022

COVID-19 impact on estimated income group in India 2021, by type

Coronavirus (COVID-19) impact on estimated income group across India as of April 2021, by type (in millions)

Estimated cost of the coronavirus (COVID-19) lockdown on the Indian economy in 2020 (in billion U.S. dollars)

Estimated economic cost of Maharashtra COVID-19 lockdown India 2021, by sector

Estimated cost of the coronavirus (COVID-19) lockdown in Maharashtra on the Indian economy in April 2021, by sector (in billion Indian rupees)

COVID-19 impact on GDP forecast India FY 2021, by agency

Impact from the coronavirus (COVID-19) on India's GDP growth forecast in financial year 2021, by agency

Impact from COVID-19 on India's exports 2021, by commodity

Impact from the coronavirus (COVID-19) on exports from India in January 2021, by commodity group

Impact from COVID-19 on India's imports 2022, by commodity

Impact from the coronavirus (COVID-19) on major imports into India in April 2022, by commodity group

• Premium Statistic COVID-19 impact on rural and urban employment India 2020, by type
• Premium Statistic COVID-19 impact on unemployment rate in India 2020-2022
• Premium Statistic COVID-19 impact on jobs in India 2020, by age group
• Premium Statistic COVID-19 impact on number of people employed in India 2020-2021
• Premium Statistic COVID-19 impact on labor participation rate in India 2020-2022
• Premium Statistic Employment rate of urban women India 2016-2021

COVID-19 impact on rural and urban employment India 2020, by type

Impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) on rural and urban employment across India in 2020, by type

COVID-19 impact on unemployment rate in India 2020-2022

Impact on unemployment rate due to the coronavirus (COVID-19) lockdown in India from January 2020 to May 2022

COVID-19 impact on jobs in India 2020, by age group

Impact on job loss and gain due to the coronavirus (COVID-19) lockdown in India between April and July 2020, by age group (in millions)

COVID-19 impact on number of people employed in India 2020-2021

Impact on number of people employed during the coronavirus (COVID-19) lockdown in India between May 2020 and January 2021 (in millions)

Impact on labor participation due to the coronavirus pandemic in India between 2020 and 2022

Employment rate of urban women India 2016-2021

Employment rate of urban women in India from March 2016 to February 2021

• Premium Statistic Size of organized market India FY 2019, by sector
• Basic Statistic Estimated economic impact from COVID-19 on industry in India 2020
• Basic Statistic Estimated economic impact from COVID-19 on services in India Q2 2020-Q3 2021
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• Premium Statistic Impact of COVID-19 on corporate revenues in India Q1-Q2 2020, by sector
• Premium Statistic Problems faced by business due to COVID-19 in India 2020
• Premium Statistic COVID-19 impact on start-up funding in India 2020

Size of organized market India FY 2019, by sector

Size of the organized market across India in financial year 2019, by sector (in billion Indian rupees)

Estimated impact from the coronavirus (COVID-19) on the industry sector in India from April to December 2020, by type

Estimated impact from the coronavirus (COVID-19) on the service sector in India from 2nd quarter 2020 to 3rd quarter 2021, by type

Estimated economic impact from COVID-19 in India 2020 by market

Estimated impact from the coronavirus (COVID-19) on India in 2020, by market

Impact of COVID-19 on corporate revenues in India Q1-Q2 2020, by sector

Impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic on corporate revenues in India in 1st quarter and 2nd quarter 2020, by sector

Problems faced by business due to COVID-19 in India 2020

Problems faced by business due to the coronavirus (COVID-19) in India in 2020

COVID-19 impact on start-up funding in India 2020

The impact of COVID-19 on Indian tech start-ups in different funding stages between April and October 2020

Retail and consumption

• Premium Statistic Reasons for not visiting restaurants after COVID-19 lockdown India 2020
• Basic Statistic Opinion on shopping for non-essentials after COVID-19 lockdown relaxation India 2020
• Basic Statistic COVID-19 impact on media consumption India 2020 by type of media
• Basic Statistic Opinion on online deliveries after COVID-19 lockdown relaxation India 2020
• Premium Statistic Opinion on impact of COVID-19 lockdown on grocery availability India 2020
• Basic Statistic People engaged in panic buying due to COVID-19 India 2020

Reasons for not visiting restaurants after COVID-19 lockdown India 2020

Reasons for not visiting favorite restaurant after the coronavirus (COVID-19) lockdown in India as of May 2020

Opinion on shopping for non-essentials after COVID-19 lockdown relaxation India 2020

Opinion about purchasing items beyond essentials after the coronavirus (COVID-19) lockdown relaxation in India as of May 2020

COVID-19 impact on media consumption India 2020 by type of media

Impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) on media consumption in India as of March 2020, by type of media

Opinion on online deliveries after COVID-19 lockdown relaxation India 2020

Opinion about permitting e-commerce platforms to deliver all goods after the coronavirus (COVID-19) lockdown relaxation in India as of May 2020

Opinion on impact of COVID-19 lockdown on grocery availability India 2020

Opinion on impact of COVID-19 lockdown on grocery availability in India from March 20, 2020 to May 18, 2020

People engaged in panic buying due to COVID-19 India 2020

Share of people engaged in panic buying due to coronavirus (COVID-19) in India in 2020

Relief and financial aid

• Premium Statistic Value of government aid to combat COVID-19 in India April 2020
• Premium Statistic Impact of government aid to combat COVID-19 in India September 2020
• Premium Statistic Top ten states by number of people fed during COVID-19 lockdown in India 2020
• Basic Statistic Government shelter homes during COVID-19 in India 2020 by state

Value of government aid towards the coronavirus (COVID-19) across India as of May 6, 2020, by type (in billion Indian rupees)

Impact of government aid to combat COVID-19 in India September 2020

Number of people aided by the government relief package towards the coronavirus (COVID-19) across India as of September 9, 2020, by type (in millions)

Top ten states by number of people fed during COVID-19 lockdown in India 2020

Leading states by number of free meals provided by the state/NGO during the coronavirus (COVID-19) lockdown in India as of April 2020 (in millions)

Government shelter homes during COVID-19 in India 2020 by state

Number of government shelter homes during the coronavirus (COVID-19) in India as of April 2020, by state

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King's College London

02 November 2020

Examining the economic and social impact of COVID-19 on India

A new website from the King's India Institute presents a real-time picture of COVID-19's impact on individual states across India.

India has been hit hard by COVID-19. The country currently has the second largest number of cases in the world after the United States.

A new website launched by the King’s India Institute presents a real-time picture of the social and economic impact of COVID-19 across states in India since the implementation (and subsequent relaxation) of one of the most stringent lockdowns anywhere in the world, which began on March 24 th  2020.

In many respects India’s policy response to COVID-19 has been heavily centralised. Yet, in a federal system in which state governments have responsibility for public health and play a fundamental role in implementing social security policies, India’s emergence from the pandemic will depend crucially on the actions and capabilities of its states.

When COVID-19 arrived in India the initial response was led by the central government, but from the outset there was also intense activity at the state level. It was clear that the pandemic itself, as well as its social and economic ramifications, would vary across regions. With the DecovIndia project we wanted to track the evolving policy response to COVID-19 across states in India, and to begin to assess the different impacts across regions over time. Dr Louise Tillin, Director of the King's India Institute

The DecovIndia project, led by the King’s India Institute, aims to understand how the decentralised (‘De’) policy response to COVID-19 (‘cov’) will shape the outcome of the pandemic in India in three domains - health, economy and social security.

The DecovIndia website uses a range of publicly available, real time data to illustrate the variation in health infrastructural capacity across states, the functioning of social safety nets and food supply chains, as well as the impact of the lockdown and its easing on business and industry across states. It also starts to chart some of the divergence in the design and operation of social security policies across states by analysing hundreds of official notifications collated by several organisations in India including PRS Legislative Research and Dvara Research.

Dr Louise Tillin, Director of King’s India Institute and DecovIndia Project Coordinator explains that the website presents “a picture of the unfolding social and economic impact of COVID-19 across Indian states from the time that the lockdown was imposed in March”.

The data presented on the website will be updated regularly. It is not the final word but rather an effort to capture a moving picture.

DecovIndia is a collaborative project with a research team based across India and in the UK. It has involved collaboration between the King’s India Institute, Trivedi Centre for Political Data (TCPD), Ashoka University and Mystic Parrot (for website development).

The project has been funded by grants from the Faculty of Social Science and Public Policy (SSPP) and the King’s India Institute, King’s College London.

In this story

Professor Louise Tillin

Professor of Politics

Dr Sunil Mitra Kumar

Acting Director of the India Institute

Professor Amrita Dhillon

Professor of Economics

• International

Related departments

• School of Global Affairs
• King’s Global Institutes
• King’s India Institute

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India’s Economy to Remain Strong Despite Subdued Global Growth

Greater openness to trade will be key to reaching $1 trillion merchandise exports by 2030

NEW DELHI, September 3, 2024 — The Indian economy continues to grow at a healthy pace despite challenging global conditions, according to World Bank’s latest India Development Update: India’s Trade Opportunities in a Changing Global Context.  But to reach its $1 trillion merchandise exports goal by 2030, India needs to diversify its export basket and leverage global value chains.

The India Development Update (IDU) observes that India remained the fastest-growing major economy and grew at a rapid clip of 8.2 percent in FY23/24. Growth was boosted by public infrastructure investment and an upswing in household investments in real estate. On the supply side, it was supported by a buoyant manufacturing sector, which grew by 9.9 percent, and resilient services activity, which compensated for underperformance in agriculture. Reflecting these trends, urban unemployment has improved gradually since the pandemic, especially for female workers. Female urban unemployment fell to 8.5 percent in early FY24/25, although urban youth unemployment remained elevated at 17 percent. With a narrowing of the current account deficit and strong foreign portfolio investment inflows, foreign exchange reserves reached an all-time high of $670.1 billion in early August, equivalent to over 11 months oft cover (in FY23/24 import terms).

Amid challenging external conditions, the World Bank expects India’s medium-term outlook to remain positive. Growth is forecast to reach 7 percent in FY24/25 and remain strong in FY25/26 and FY26/27. With robust revenue growth and further fiscal consolidation, the debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to decline from 83.9 percent in FY23/24 to 82 percent by FY26/27. the current account deficit is expected to remain at around 1-1.6 percent of GDP up to FY26/27. (Table below).

The IDU also highlights the critical role of trade for boosting growth. The global trade landscape has witnessed increased protectionism in recent years. The post pandemic reconfiguration of global value chains, triggered by the pandemic, has created opportunities for India. The report emphasizes that India has boosted its competitiveness through the National Logistics Policy and digital initiatives that are reducing trade costs. However, it also notes that tariff and non-tariff barriers have increased and could limit the potential for trade focused investments.

“India’s robust growth prospects along with declining inflation will help to reduce extreme poverty,” said Auguste Tano Kouame, World Bank's Country Director in India. “India can boost its growth further by harnessing its global trade potential. In addition to IT, business services and pharma where it excels, India can diversify its export basket with increased exports in textiles, apparel, and footwear sectors, as well as electronics and green technology products.”

The IDU recommends a three-pronged approach towards achieving the $1 trillion merchandise export target by reducing trade costs further, lowering trade barriers, and deepening trade integration.

“With rising costs of production and declining productivity, India’s share in global apparel exports has declined from 4 percent in 2018 to 3 percent in 2022 , ” said Nora Dihel and Ran Li, Senior Economists, co-authors of the report. “To create more trade-related jobs, India can Integrate more deeply into global value chains which will also create opportunities for innovation and productivity growth. ”  

Source: CEIC and World Bank Staff calculations

Note: (i) Shaded columns are WB forecasts

• World Bank India Website (English)
• World Bank India Website (Hindi)
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Opinion | How PMJDY Sparked A Ripple Effect Across India's Economy

The Marshall Plan, launched by the United States in 1948 to rebuild post-war Europe, exemplifies how a keystone intervention can drive widespread positive change. By providing financial aid, the Plan revived economies, stabilised political landscapes, modernised industries, and laid the groundwork for European integration. It fostered job creation, improved living standards, and strengthened alliances, showing how targeted support can create a domino effect across society. 

Similarly, India's Pradhan Mantri Jan Dhan Yojana (PMJDY) is a keystone intervention in financial inclusion. By bringing millions into the formal banking system, PMJDY has enhanced economic participation, reduced poverty, and contributed to social stability, mirroring the transformative impact of the Marshall Plan.

Several Improvements

The PMJDY, launched on August 28, 2014, aimed to include 7.5 crore unbanked households in the formal financial system, leveraging the JAM (Jan Dhan, Aadhar, Mobile) trinity. As a result, more than 80% of adults now have formal financial accounts, compared to around 50% in 2011, significantly reducing the gender gap in account ownership. Public sector banks, which manage 78% of PMJDY accounts, have opened around 53 crore accounts with balances totalling Rs 2.31 lakh crore as of August 2024. Analysis by Soumya Kanti Ghosh and team shows that these accounts have seen an increase in the average balance from Rs 1,065 in March 2015 to Rs 4,352 in August 2024, with 55.6% belonging to women and 66.6% in rural and semi-urban areas. The scheme has also shown social benefits, such as a reduction in thefts and a decrease in the consumption of intoxicants in states with higher account penetration. Over the past decade, Rs 38.49 lakh crore has been transferred via Direct Benefit Transfers (DBT), plugging Rs 3.48 lakh crore in leakages and boosting digital payments, with India recording 55.7 billion UPI transactions by July 2024. Today, as India has made significant strides in financial inclusion, we often fail to fully recognise the significant impact it has had on the lives of ordinary citizens across the country. One of the most compelling arguments for financial inclusion is its potential to drive economic growth and reduce poverty. According to a study by Demirgüç-Kunt and Levine (2008), financial inclusion contributes to economic growth by mobilising savings, fostering capital accumulation, and improving resource allocation. By providing access to credit, savings, insurance, and payment systems, financial inclusion enables individuals to invest in education, health, and businesses, leading to improved economic outcomes. A comprehensive review by the World Bank found that financial inclusion reduces poverty by enabling the poor to manage risk, smooth consumption, and invest in their future. For instance, access to microcredit allows small entrepreneurs to start or expand businesses, which can lift them and their families out of poverty. PMJDY coupled with the Pradhan Mantri Mudra Yojana (PMMY) has significantly impacted India's micro and small enterprises by providing over ₹27.75 lakh crore in loans to 47 crore entrepreneurs since its inception in 2015. The scheme has promoted financial inclusion, with 69% of loans going to women and 51% to SC/ST and OBC entrepreneurs, thereby enhancing social equity. It has also been instrumental in job creation, particularly in rural and semi-urban areas, by encouraging self-employment and supporting the growth of small businesses.

The Digital Era

Additionally, digital financial services have been shown to significantly reduce transaction costs, making it easier for the poor to save and invest. Financial inclusion is a key driver of social and gender equity. Studies such as those by Dupas and Robinson (2013) have shown that women, in particular, benefit from financial inclusion. Access to financial services empowers women by giving them control over their finances, enabling them to make decisions about their own lives and their families. This empowerment leads to broader social benefits, including improved health and education outcomes for children. Furthermore, financial inclusion can help reduce income inequality. A study by Clarke, Xu, and Zou (2006) found that financial development, which includes increasing financial inclusion, is associated with lower income inequality. Thus, access to financial services increases the opportunities to improve the economic standing of the poor. The rise of fintech has also brought a new dimension to financial inclusion by introducing innovative products and services that reach previously underserved populations. A recent study by Sahay et al. (2020) highlights how digital financial services, including mobile banking and e-wallets, have transformed the financial landscape, particularly in developing countries. The rise of fintech has significantly amplified the impact of financial inclusion through the deployment of the India Stack, a set of APIs that allow governments, businesses, startups, and developers to utilise India's digital infrastructure for seamless, paperless, and cashless service delivery. The India Stack, comprising Aadhaar (a unique identification system), e-KYC, UPI (Unified Payments Interface), and other digital layers, has been a game-changer in extending financial services to underserved populations.

The UPI Revolution

The India Stack has enabled the rapid growth of digital financial services, particularly through mobile banking and e-wallets, which have transformed the financial landscape in the country. For example, the UPI platform has revolutionised payments by allowing instant money transfers between bank accounts using a mobile phone, drastically reducing transaction costs and eliminating the need for physical infrastructure like bank branches. As a result, millions of people who were previously excluded from the formal financial system now have access to efficient and convenient financial services. As India continues to build on this momentum, leveraging innovations like the India Stack, the potential for even greater financial inclusion is within reach. PMJDY is a keystone intervention that has sparked a ripple effect across the economy, driving growth, fostering equity, and paving the way for a more inclusive and prosperous India. It should be celebrated.

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(Bibek Debroy is Chairman, Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister, and Aditya Sinha is OSD, Research, Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister)

Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author

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• DOI: 10.1038/s41598-024-71242-4
• Corpus ID: 272252822

The impact of COVID-19 on livelihood assets: a case study of high-value crop farmers in North-West Bangladesh

• Umme Salma , Mohammad Jahangir Alam , +6 authors Avinash Kishore
• Published in Scientific Reports 29 August 2024
• Agricultural and Food Sciences, Economics, Environmental Science

67 References

The impact of the covid-19 pandemic on fish consumption and household food security in dhaka city, bangladesh.

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Global Report on Food Crises (GRFC) 2024

Published by the Food Security Information Network (FSIN) in support of the Global Network against Food Crises (GNAFC), the GRFC 2024 is the reference document for global, regional and country-level acute food insecurity in 2023. The report is the result of a collaborative effort among 16 partners to achieve a consensus-based assessment of acute food insecurity and malnutrition in countries with food crises and aims to inform humanitarian and development action.  

FSIN and Global Network Against Food Crises. 2024. GRFC 2024 . Rome.

When citing this report online please use this link:

https://www.fsinplatform.org/report/global-report-food-crises-2024/

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