future research institute

Explore  CRI’s 2023 Cancer Research Impact

Immune to Cancer: The CRI Blog

CICON24 Day 1 Recap: Groundbreaking Research and Collaboration Driving the Future of Cancer Immunotherapy 

NATIONAL HARBOR — CICON24 officially kicked off today at the Gaylord National Resort and Convention Center in National Harbor, MD. Running from September 8 to 11, this annual event gathers top experts in immuno-oncology, immunology, and tumor biology. The atmosphere is buzzing with excitement as attendees collaborate and exchange groundbreaking ideas, laying the foundation for the next wave of cancer immunotherapy breakthroughs that are set to revolutionize cancer treatment. 

Day one of CICON24 was packed with illuminating presentations, starting with a session focused on neoadjuvant and platform trials. Neoadjuvant therapy is a form of treatment given before the primary treatment, such as surgery, to shrink a tumor or reduce the extent of the disease. It’s use is gaining significant attention, with numerous successful clinical trials underscoring its potential to dramatically improve patient outcomes.

Mark Yarchoan, MD, from Johns Hopkins School of Medicine, opened the discussion with groundbreaking findings from clinical trials on neoadjuvant therapy in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). His research revealed that neoadjuvant therapy not only reduces tumor burden but also transforms previously inoperable HCC tumors into resectable ones. A key takeaway was the identification of tertiary lymphoid structures (TLS) in patients who respond well to neoadjuvant therapy, marking a significant step forward in understanding and treating this challenging cancer. 

Following this, Luis Diaz Jr., MD, from Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center (MSKCC), delved into the role of mismatch repair deficiency (MMRd) in colorectal cancer immunotherapy. Dr. Diaz highlighted that MMR deficiency correlates with improved patient response and survival across various cancers. His research demonstrated that combining temozolomide (TMZ) and cisplatin (CDDP) can induce an MMRd genotype, enhancing sensitivity to PD-1 inhibitors in preclinical models. Further, clinical trials showed that this combination, along with anti-PD1 therapy, significantly improved overall survival in chemo-refractory metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC) patients, offering a new strategy to make MMR-proficient tumors more responsive to immunotherapy. 

Elizabeth Jaffee, MD , Deputy Director for the Sidney Kimmel Comprehensive Cancer Center at Johns Hopkins School of Medicine, continued the discussion on neoadjuvant therapy, this time focusing on pancreatic cancer. Her research on pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) demonstrated how combining a cancer vaccine with anti-PD1 therapy can significantly enhance T cell activation and infiltration within tumors. Using multi-omics analysis, Dr. Jaffee uncovered how immune cells adapt in response to this combination therapy. Additionally, her study identified the role of neutrophils in the tumor microenvironment, further influencing patient outcomes. Her findings underscore the transformative potential of neoadjuvant therapy in improving survival rates for pancreatic cancer patients. 

The meeting then transitioned into the realm of data analytics and the role mechanistic insights play in shaping the future of cancer immunotherapy. Max Krummel, PhD, from the University of California, San Francisco (UCSF), spoke on the innovative use of immune archetypes in cancer therapy. He emphasized the need to identify patterns of immune cell presence within tumors to develop more effective immunotherapies and called for greater collaboration, improved data curation, and enhanced scientific methodologies to accelerate progress in the field. 

Dana Pe’er, PhD, Chair, Computational and Systems Biology Program for MSKCC, followed with insights on the impact of single-cell genomics in immunology. She discussed the limitations of the current single cell sequencing workflows that are available which can hinder effective data analysis. She also warned against over-reliance on data integration techniques that might dilute crucial gene information. To address these challenges, Dr. Pe’er introduced spectral factor analysis—a novel approach that leverages biological processes to improve data interpretation. This method allows researchers to distinguish between tumor-reactive and exhausted T cells and deconvolute overlapping gene sets, ultimately providing a more accurate adaptation of gene programs to data. 

As the session continued, attendees heard from Elana Fertig, PhD , from Johns Hopkins University, about integrating mathematical modeling and immunotherapy, with a focus on computational approaches. She highlighted the complexity of tumor cell heterogeneity and how it influences immune response. To address this complexity, Dr. Fertig is applying chaos theory and weather forecasting principles to develop predictive models for medicine. 

The session also highlighted proffered talks from promising young scientists entering the field of cancer immunotherapy. Among them was Qin Zhu, PhD , a CRI Immuno-Informatics Fellow from UCSF, who presented his research on T cell states. Dr. Zhu is integrating biological research with bioinformatics to uncover the mechanisms that drive T cells to transition between different states. He offered insights into how developmental stages and various treatments influence T cell states, to develop innovative strategies to transform T cells into potent, tumor-killing effector cells. Speaking about the impact of big data in shaping the field of immunotherapy, Dr. Zhu told CRI, “I think immunobiology as a field is entering big data era”. 

The final session of the day delved into the emerging role of Tertiary Lymphoid Structures (TLS) as crucial regulators of anti-cancer immunity. Nir Hacohen, PhD, from Massachusetts General Hospital, and Wolf Hervé Fridman, MD, PhD, University of Paris, explored how immune cells organize within tumors and the impact of TLS on tumor response to immunotherapy. Dr. Fridman provided a detailed overview of how TLS influence tumor immunity and the cellular signaling pathways that play a critical role in predicting patient response to treatment. 

The session also featured promising young scientists, including Kevin Ng, PhD, CRI-Dr. Keith Landesman Memorial Fellow from The Rockefeller University. Dr. Ng discussed the presence of germinal centers in tumors and their role in producing anti-tumor antibodies, which can be harnessed to eliminate cancer cells.  

From the outset on day one, CICON24 has sparked groundbreaking discussions and showcased pioneering research, all driven by a collective commitment to advancing cancer immunotherapy. The collaborative energy at this conference is not just setting the stage but actively forging the path toward creating a world immune to cancer. 

Let's spread the word about Immunotherapy! Click to share this page with your community.

This website uses tracking technologies, such as cookies, to provide a better user experience. If you continue to use this site, then you acknowledge our use of tracking technologies. For additional information, review our Privacy Policy .

• Who We Serve
• Foresight Essentials
• Advisory Services
• Vantage Partnership
• Ten-Year Forecast
• Interactive Experiences
• Featured Work
• Newsletters
• Future Now Podcast
• Media Archive

Institute for the Future has spent over 55 years helping people prepare for what comes next.

IFTF was founded in 1968 as an independent, public-interest nonprofit and a spinoff from RAND Corporation with original support from the Ford Foundation. Our founding articles of incorporation state that “it is imperative that society acquire the necessary tools, methods and research capabilities to identify and cope with socio-economic questions before they become tomorrow’s critical problems.” This was a revolutionary call-to-action at a tumultuous time in history—a call for a more rigorous systems approach to the future that would help people find agency in their own expertise to be better prepared in uncertain times.

Over half a century later, we are still driven by this same singular ambition: to look as far ahead as possible and imagine the world “if.” 

Asking “what if?” allows us to transcend the limits of short-term thinking, to change course before it’s too late, and to see future possibilities framed in intensely human terms.

IFTF is the world's oldest continuously running futures research and educational organization. We believe people can harness the power of “if”—the power of imagination to awaken a sense of agency in their future and drive change in themselves and their organizations—and our tools and programs are designed for exactly that.

A Brief History of IFTF

In the first decades of IFTF, human communication served as the primary motivator for our work. IFTF studied such topics as emerging technologies, the future of business and society, the telecommunications industry, alternative energy policies, and the social implications of computers. We pursued the horizons of groupware, telehealth, connected households, consumer behavior, new employer-employee relationships, and organizations reorganizing to thrive in hyperconnected times.

Along the way, we developed a human-centered process called ethnographic foresight , which anticipates emergent futures by understanding the values, behaviors, and toolsets of future-facing people in the context of their daily lives. We went out into the world, into people's homes and workplaces to uncover signals of how people experience the present in ways that are likely to grow and have increasing importance in the long-term future. These intimate encounters focused on human issues: an emerging health economy, global sustainability, our impending encounter with our ability to re-engineer ourselves.

Today, as an independent, registered 501(c)(3), nonprofit research institute with a global reach and impact, we continue to build new tools to help organizations, communities, and nations navigate complexity, uncertainty, and change so they can become future-ready.

Milestones and Highlights

Laying the foundations of foresight.

IFTF was founded by Paul Baran, Olaf Helmer, and Ted Gordon, visionaries who saw the power of computer networks to build collective intelligence. Founded foresight on Delphi Method, making sense of complex systems shaping the future. Turned analyses into models and scenarios, building tools and frameworks to assess wide range of futures.

Revolutionary Visions of a Complex Future

IFTF grew under president Roy Amara’s leadership with grants from NSF and ARPA. Prototyped conferencing systems, turning computer networks into communication platforms. First membership program, Project Aware, forerunner of IFTF’s flagship Ten Year Forecast. In 1978, published one of the earliest forecasts of climate change.

Electronic Meetings explored "the use of audio, video, and computer technologies to facilitate information exchange, negotiation, problem solving and decision making within groups whose members may be separated by both space and time."

Technology Forecasting in the Trenches

Information and communication technology changed lives in organizations and households. IFTF researchers worked with large organizations to understand the future of collaborative teams. Anticipated robotics, warehouse data systems, electronic shopping, and home banking. Launched long-running health care and education forecasts. Prototyped multimedia tools for modeling futures.

Upsizing The Individual In The Downsized Organization takes a practical look at the strategies for managing organizations in a decade of re-engineering, globalization, and rapid technological change.

The View from the Second Curve

Change became transformation as the World Wide Web drove rapid reinvention. IFTF needed new frameworks amid disruptive innovation. New president Ian Morrison introduced the two-curve future, where incumbents on downward must decide when to join innovators on the rise. Tools from social sciences (surveys, ethnography) led to rich visions of work, households, health, and more.

The Second Curve: Managing the Velocity of Change tackles the challenge of preparing for a future that is disruptively different from the present.

Foresight on the Road to Action

Great Recession led to engagement with the public in what president Bob Johansen called “Foresight-Insight-Action.” World’s first massively multiplayer forecasting game, Superstruct, led players through prescient scenarios: pandemic, food crisis, outlaw economy, massive migrations, energy wars. IFTF innovated communication formats (maps and artifacts from the future) to make foresight more accessible. Get There Early lays out a practical path from Foresight to Insight to Action that has become the heart of IFTF's Foresight Essentials trainings.

Urgent Futures

Increasingly urgent futures: accelerating climate change, disintegrating governments, escalating inequality. IFTF introduced participatory platform Foresight Engine. New president Marina Gorbis provided theoretical framework: “socialstructed future,” or relationship-driven economy where individuals harness technologies to collaboratively create products, services, ideas and indeed, new futures. Emerging Media Lab explored the metaverse while Foresight Studio provided fundamental training.

The Nature of the Future: Dispatches from the Socialstructed World examines the ways a networked world could come to grips with urgent futures.

In Search of a New Imagination

New decade opened with global pandemic akin to those IFTF imagined in past forecasts, revealing deeper disease in global society, one that challenged basic values (democracy, equity, science, the very meaning of work). IFTF’s network spurred to understand the roots of today’s failures while imagining something better.

Imaginable taps the science of psychology and the brain to learn how to anticipate the unthinkable and imagine the unimaginable.

Ready to Make History With Us?

For more information about how we can help your organization shape its future, please contact:

Cindy Baskin

Help us learn more about you and your interest in foresight.

ABOUT INSTITUTE FOR THE FUTURE

Institute for the Future is the world’s leading futures organization. For over 55 years, businesses, governments, and social impact organizations have depended upon IFTF global forecasts, custom research, foresight education and training to navigate complex change and develop future-ready strategies. IFTF methodologies and toolsets yield views of transformative possibilities across all sectors that together support a more equitable and sustainable future. Institute for the Future is a registered 501(c)(3) nonprofit organization based in Palo Alto, California. For more, visit www.iftf.org.

• Our Projects
• The Institute
• For Organisations
• READ & LISTEN

We help people and organisations imagine, work with, and shape their future.

The Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies is an independent, non-profit think tank established in 1969. By building the capabilities necessary to address potential futures we help create a society fit to meet the challenges and grasp the opportunities we face.

We do this by applying our unique approach to futures studies and foresight, combined with more than 50 years of global experience and contributions to the field, working with organisations across the public, private, academic, and civic sectors, as well as with the general public.

Our vision is a futures literate world where everyone has the right and mandate to engage with the future, participate, and visualise change, so they can create the best possible future for themselves, society, and the planet.

Explore Our Services

Our agendas.

Learn how to apply strategic foresight in your organisation

Improve your foresight capabilities through organisational training or by becoming a futures partner., become futures-ready, explore the benefits of a futures membership.

A memberships grants you 4 annual issues of FARSIGHT publication (print & digital) and instant digital access to over 150 reports, magazines and publications. You also get 10% discount on all our online and on-site courses and help support our work to shape a better future!

Get the tools to apply futures studies and foresight methodologies to your specific societal and business challenges.

Fall 2024 Admissions is officially OPEN.  Sign up for the next live information session here .

the Cambridge Future Scholar Programme

Explore your passions through a research course.

The Future Scholar Programme is an online 2-5 student research-focused programme taught by current teaching faculty members at the University of Cambridge, the University of Oxford, MIT, Harvard, Stanford, and select Ivy League universities. 

Each Spring, Summer, and Fall round will be offering 90+ unique research courses in STEM, Business, Social Sciences, and the Humanities.

Programme Outcomes

Admission Deadlines

Research Course Offerings

Watch this video to learn more about the Future Scholar programme.

A Semester's Worth of Teaching

13 weeks of lectures and supervision from Oxbridge or Ivy League faculty mentors and PhD TAs. Curricula mirroring first-year courses at the faculty mentors’ universities.

A Signed Evaluation Report

From your Oxbridge or Ivy faculty mentor, issued by the programme, that highlights each student’s performance throughout the programme.

An Independent Research Project

Complete an original independent research paper, supervised by an Oxbridge or Ivy League faculty mentor, with the aiming of publication at undergraduate or industry level journals..

A Letter of Recommendation

The option to request a tailored letter penned by your Oxbridge or Ivy League faculty mentor.

Download the Fall 2024 Prospectus for:

Oxbridge Level Writing Centre

Our writing centre, staffed by Oxbridge students and alumni, is constantly on call to provide prompt feedback on your writing.

Independent Ethics Review Committee

For research involving human subjects, an ERC review is often required to ensure the experiment adheres to research ethics. CCIR’s independently-run ERC is led by Dr McClelland at the University of Cambridge.

Journal Publication Guidance

Publishing requires know-how. Our expert team will not only help you transition from high school to academic writing, we will also actively assist you in getting your work published. Our academic advisors actively maintain our database of publications so that we know how and where to best showcase your work. We will help you avoid predatory academic forums and support you as you publish your work in legitimate journals and conferences.

CCIR Student Research Symposium at the University of Cambridge, with 10 Nobel Laureates Attending

Every year, a select number of CCIR’s students have the opportunity to present their research findings on the campus of Cambridge, to showcase their work and their achievements (in person or virtually). For 2024, the symposium is open to apply for all current and past CCIR students, who enrolled before June 15, 2024, regardless of the status of their research.

Participants must submit a 200 to 400 word fully polished abstract, or the most recent draft of the paper.

We are beyond excited to announce that 10 Nobel laureates have confirmed to attend and speak with CCIR student researchers at CCIR’s Student Research Symposium on July 30, 2024.

CCIR Student presenters are also invited to the Reception hosted at the hall of King’s College. The Reception is a traditional Oxbridge style high table dinner, with both Nobel laureates and select CCIR professor mentors expected to sit at the high table. For the invited student presenters, there is no cost for presenting at the Symposium and attending the Reception.

Fall 2024 Research Course Overview

98 Unique Research Courses, Designed and Taught by Ivy League/Oxbridge Faculty

Each course is designed and taught by current Oxbridge and Ivy League faculty.

For full professor mentor biographies and course descriptions, please download the latest prospectus.

Harvard (Harvard Medical School) | Department of Cardiology

In this research course, we will talk about the principles of developmental biology and stem cell biology, study organ development (such as the heart), and discuss genome engineering using the CRISPR-Cas9 (a novel genetic modification tool). The objective of the research course is to encourage students to think creatively about how a cell develops an organism, how we can study them experimentally, how we can edit genes, and how we can use animal models to analyse in vivo data.

Brown | BioMed MCB Department

In this research course, each student is tasked to read, digest, and present assigned peer-reviewed research articles in the field of Cell and Developmental Biology, which is the science that investigates how interacting processes generate an organism’s heterogeneous shapes, size, and structural features that arise on the trajectory throughout a life cycle. Topics of interest include asymmetric cell division, cell signalling and metabolism, cellular specification and differentiation, mRNA translation, embryonic development, germ cell and stem cell development, and cancer regulation.

Princeton | Department of Molecular Biology

In this course, students will receive a comprehensive introduction to the fascinating world of protein biochemistry. We will span several decades of technological advancements including the polymerase chain reaction (PCR), recombinant protein expression technologies, CRISPR/Cas9 gene editing, and advances in optical microscopy approaches. We will combine fundamental concepts in molecular biology and biochemistry with the seminal literature in the field that has led to major scientific breakthroughs and altered the way textbooks are written. Students will explore protein-based machines through independent research projects using basic molecular biology and biochemical techniques (if available) and/or computational AI-based tools.

Oxford | Department of Biochemistry

In this research course, we will explore genetics utilising computational and data scientific techniques. By analysing the vast quantities of data using these cutting-edge techniques, students will learn how to observe and analyze molecular events across the genomes of biological systems.

Cambridge | Department of Genetics

In this research course, students will learn about the role of genetics in understanding and combatting infectious diseases, while developing skills relevant in modern computational analyses, known as bioinformatics, which will open the door for understanding infection mechanisms at the gene and protein levels.

Cambridge | Department of Medicine

In the contemporary landscape of medical science and biology, computational tools have become indispensable, driving advancements in diagnosis, drug discovery, and biotechnology. This interdisciplinary course is designed to bridge the gap between traditional biological sciences and cutting-edge computational techniques. By integrating practical computing, bioinformatics, and machine learning, this research course provides a comprehensive foundation for students aiming to tackle real-world challenges in the medical and biological fields.

Cambridge | Department of Pharmacology

In this course, we will learn the basic principles of cancer biology and how to use different bioinformatics tools to analyse health data. We will discuss the hallmarks of cancer to better understand how we can interpret the results we can discover from the data-mining exercises. We will explore large-scale biological data using different bioinformatics tools and platforms. These findings will allow students to uncover genes that can have a potential role as biomarkers or that have therapeutic applications.

In this course, we will learn the basic principles of genomics and molecular profiling approaches used to analyse an individual’s genetic information. We will also engage in hands-on research by utilising bioinformatics tools to identify biomarkers—specific indicators associated with particular diseases or treatment responses. As precision medicine involves integrating data from various omics sources, such as genomics, transcriptomics, proteomics, and metabolomics, we will use bioinformatics tools to explore and integrate multi-dimensional data, offering a more comprehensive view of biological processes. The potential role of artificial intelligence, machine learning and other innovative approaches in shaping the future of precision medicine will also be discussed.

Harvard (Harvard Medical School) | Kanarek Lab, Department of Pathology

In this research course, students will embark on a research journey into the dynamic realm of cancer research, with a particular focus on metabolomics application. As the landscape of cancer investigation continues to evolve, yielding an abundance of new insights, the course offers an exploration of cutting-edge knowledge in cancer research. By conducting their independent research project, students will gain an understanding of the interplay between metabolism and cancer, along with the skills to contribute to the forefront of cancer research.

UC Berkeley | Landry Lab, Department of Chemical and Biomolecular Engineering

This research course will cover emerging topics in applied biotechnology – from CRISPR to cloning. We will learn the fundamental principles of DNA, RNA, and protein biochemistry and think about how analogous techniques to study and analyse these systems have emerged. Next, we will discuss the development of CRISPR-based genome editing applications. The scope of the research course will allow students to probe the cutting-edge interface of biology with engineering.

Cambridge | Cancer Research UK Cambridge Institute

This research course aims to explain how genetic variations in our genome affect our phenotype and how genetic variations lead to single gene and complex diseases such as cancer. Most importantly we will explore modern cancer diagnostics and novel methods for early cancer detection and how clinicians nowadays use patients’ DNA to target and treat cancer — offering a new approach to personalised treatment. 

Harvard | Joslin Diabetes Center

Throughout the research course, students will explore cutting-edge strategies and technologies used in drug discovery with a focus on metabolism-targeting therapeutics. The rapidly advancing field of drug development offers various approaches, including novel drug design, high-throughput screening methods, and precision medicine techniques. By exposing students to these state-of-the-art methodologies, the course aims to equip them with the knowledge and skills necessary to engage in contemporary research efforts and contribute to the development of next-generation drugs aimed at combating metabolic diseases.

Cambridge | Biomineral Research Lab

Biological imaging methods serve as indispensable tools for illuminating the dynamics of biological systems, offering insights into their inner workings at the cellular and molecular levels. This research course acts as a gateway into the realm of bio-image processing techniques, empowering students with the necessary knowledge and skills to dissect, analyse, and interpret biological images with precision and efficacy. The aim of the course is to cultivate both a theoretical and practical understanding of image processing methods meticulously tailored to meet the unique challenges posed by biological data.

Harvard | Massachusetts General Hospital 

Regenerative medicine, using biologically compatible materials (biomaterials) and stem cells, aims to restore the functions of damaged organs or tissues. We will examine the basics of stem cell biology, explore different types of biomaterials, discuss current tissue engineering strategies and commercially available tissue engineering products. Ultimately, students will each conduct a research project in which participants can develop their own hypothetical tissue engineering strategies to restore a type of tissue of their own choosing.

Cambridge | Department of Veterinary Medicine

This course offers an introduction to bacterial genomics within the context of the pressing global concern—antimicrobial resistance (AMR). Students delve into resistance genes, horizontal gene transfer, and cutting-edge DNA sequencing techniques, gaining practical skills in bioinformatics for AMR surveillance. The course goes beyond theoretical understanding, exploring strategies to combat AMR, including responsible antibiotic use, alternative therapies, and global initiatives. Emphasis is placed on hands-on exercises, discussions, and collaborative projects that empower students to analyse real-world genomic data and propose solutions to address AMR challenges.

Cambridge | Department of Engineering 

Our brain controls how we perceive our surroundings and how we interact with them, how we feel, and who we are. In this research course, we will explore how the brain and nervous system function with a particular attention to its core building block – the neuron. We will also explore how technology can be utilised to better understand and treat the brain.

Cambridge/Johns Hopkins | Bioelectronics Laboratory

The objective of this research course is to invite students to study neuroscience and neuroanatomy, and to understand the state-of-the-art technology being used to interface with the nervous system. In particular, we will learn the physiological basis of electrical and chemical signalling in the nervous system, including the brain and the sensory systems (visual, auditory, olfactory and taste, and hearing), and understand how electronic systems can be used to artificially substitute them when damaged (e.g. recovery of hearing in deaf people).

University of Toronto, Keenan Research Centre for Biomedical Sciences | St Michael’s Hospital

This research course offers an engaging introduction to psychology’s fundamental concepts and principles. Students will be provided with an overview of the scientific study of human behaviour and thought by exploring topics such as perception, attention, memory, motivation, and decision-making. Particular focus is placed on the emotions. We will discuss the evolutionary origins of distinct emotions, as well as the impact of emotions on our cognitive processes and social relationships. Students will also be trained to discuss and present on research data and clinical experiences to enhance their understanding.

Oxford | Department of Experimental Psychology

This research course will examine the building blocks of human intelligence through the lenses of cognitive psychology. We will explore the fundamental cognitive processes such as attention, memory, and learning. We will then examine how these core abilities give rise to more complex processes such as decision making, problem solving and abstract thinking, and ultimately to what we consider intelligent behaviour. The overall aim of the course is to provide students with a thorough understanding of the key topics in cognitive psychology, to provide a space to integrate theoretical and experimental knowledge, and equip students with a thorough understanding of the tools and approaches used to study cognition.

Harvard (Harvard Medical School) | Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center, Boston

The blood-brain barrier is a major field in neuroscience, because it protects the brain from harmful substances in the blood while allowing essential nutrients to pass through. In this research course, we will grasp the essential concepts in cellular and molecular medicine, neuroscience, and genetics, specifically focusing on the blood-brain barrier (BBB) and its critical role in brain function.

Our visual sense is one of the most important means of gathering information about the surrounding physical world. In this research course, we will examine the core topics in visual perception, which form a major part in experimental psychology, cognitive science, and optometry. Students will obtain a foundational understanding of the principles, theories, and processes involved in visual perception, spanning from the basic functions of the eye to the complexities of visual cognition.

Cambridge | Department of Clinical Neurosciences

Many of us will be personally affected by dementia by either getting dementia ourselves or caring for someone with dementia. The research course will introduce students to dementia and dementia research. We will cover different types of dementias, including Alzheimer’s, Vascular dementia, frontotemporal dementia, Parkinson’s, and HIV-associated brain injury, and more. Through them we will gain an understanding of how brain diseases influence cognition, emotion, and behaviour. We will also study dementia prevention, in which we will look at evidences of how our own lifestyle choice could affect getting dementia.

Dartmouth | Computational and Cognitive Neuroscience Lab, Department of Psychological and Brain Sciences

In this research course, we will examine decision making from both behavioural and neurobiological points of view. Specifically, we will learn about different methods used in psychology and neuroscience to study decision making at various levels, from mental and cognitive processes to underpinning neural activity and mechanisms. Ultimately, this research course will alter students’ perspectives on decision-making by imparting knowledge of brain function.

Neuroeconomics is a new emerging field in which a combination of methods from neuroscience, psychology, and economics is used to better understand how we make decisions. Neuroeconomics uses various cutting edge techniques to study how the brain integrates information from various sources. In this research course, we learn about economic and psychological theories that are used to investigate and understand choice behaviour, as well as mental and neural processes that underlie decision-making.

This research course delves into the fascinating realm of how the human brain supports learning and decision-making processes, drawing insights from computational neuroscience. Throughout the course, we will explore fundamental concepts such as reinforcement learning and Bayesian decision theory, unravelling the intricate mechanisms that underlie our cognitive abilities. By synthesising insights from neuroscience, psychology, and computer science, students will develop a holistic understanding of human learning and decision-making processes. In summary, this course offers a multidisciplinary perspective that will deepen students’ understanding of the complex interplay between the brain, behaviour, and computational principles.

Cambridge | Department of Psychology 

Motivation and emotion are critical functions of the brain, allowing individuals to enhance their likelihood of survival and passing on their genes. In this research course, we will aim to provide a foundation of research, theory and practical skills acting as a primer for the student interested in the psychological and neural basis of emotion, motivated behaviours and the mechanisms of abnormal emotion and motivation.

Cambridge | Department of Psychology 

In this research course, we will explore foundational research, theory and practical skills related to molecular and systems pharmacology of central nervous system disorders. The course will provide the students with a solid background in cellular and molecular neuroscience, neuropharmacology and behavioural neuroscience that will then be used to discuss the neuropsychopharmacology of neuropsychiatric disorders. The aim of this research course is to provide an understanding of the chemical pathology of the major central nervous system diseases/disorders, and how these conditions are treated with drugs.

Harvard (Harvard Medical School) | Dettmer Lab, Department of Neurology

In this research course, students will deepen their under- standing of brain anatomy, brain biology and the degeneration that occurs in Parkinson’s disease and causes the hallmarks of PD. Potential intervention strategies will be evaluated. The importance of biomarkers for diagnosis and drug development will be discussed, and potential biomarker strategies will be highlighted. The goal is to outline novel strategies towards (early) diagnosis and treatment of PD, and this may include the combination of different approaches.

Harvard, Center for Astrophysics | NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL)

In this research course, students will generate a scientific exploration case, develop the mission concept, as well as design and investigate custom subsystems of a spacecraft, such as structures, thermal, power, attitude and orbit and propulsion. Students will study celestial mechanics/astrodynamics in order to determine the most suitable orbits in space and how this affects key engineering considerations. This course is well suited to students with an interest across space research, astronomy, aerospace engineering, and mechanical engineering.

Oxford, Department of Physics | University College London 

DNA molecules have particular chemical and physical properties that can be applied to solve tasks that go beyond the scope of their function in nature. In this research course, we will explore first DNA’s functional characteristics and how can they be used to produce complex architectures at the nanoscale that can then perform customised tasks for a wide range of applications – from biomedicine to the manufacturing industry, including data storage and complex chemical production.

UCL | Department of Computer Science

Biorobotics is a cutting-edge interdisciplinary science at the intersection of biology, biomedical engineering, computer science and robotics. It studies ways to improve the intelligence, locomotion, and other performances of robotic systems inspired by nature. In this research course, students will be introduced to novel bio-inspired ideas that have revolutionised modern day robotics, particularly in the field of soft-robotics. The course delves into the principles and methods behind the design of physically compliant robots. Students will learn the programming language MATLAB and develop their independent research projects on bio-inspired robotics.

UCL | Department of Medical Physics and Biomedical Engineering

Soft robotics is a rising branch of robotics that aims to develop delicate, flexible and safe robotic devices which interact with humans using soft actuators that mimic biological behaviour, which state of the art rigid robots cannot accomplish otherwise. In practice, they can perform tasks that would be impossible or dangerous for humans to do. This research course will introduce students to this nascent branch of robotics and have a deeper insight into soft robots’ concept, development, and control. With this, the students will develop a full awareness of the topics, which will allow them to work on their independent research projects.

Oxford | Department of Physics

This is an interdisciplinary research course at the interface of microengineering, analytical chemistry, and robotics, designed to explore the innovative applications of miniaturized analytical systems and automated chemical processes. Students will learn cutting-edge techniques in microfluidics and robotics and apply them to real-world problems in analytical chemistry and biomedical engineering.

UC Berkeley | College of Engineering 

This research course provides preparation for the conceptual design and prototyping of mechanical systems that use microprocessors to control machine activities, acquire and analyse data, and interact with operators. Students will perform laboratory exercises that lead through studies of different levels of software. Software coverage includes C and Matlab. Students will have the opportunity to work with an Infineon PSOC6 microcontroller.

Oxford | Department of Engineering

In this research course, we will explore the fundamental principles of mechanics in this comprehensive course that covers the essential and advanced concepts of statics and dynamics. Throughout the research course, hands-on exercises, problem-solving sessions, and interactive simulations will allow students to apply theoretical concepts to practical situations. By the end of this course, students will possess a solid understanding of basic mechanics, enabling them to analyse static equilibrium, assess structural members, and predict the behaviour of particles and rigid bodies in dynamic situations.

In this research course, we will explore the fundamental principles of mechanics in this comprehensive course that covers the essential and advanced concepts of statics and dynamics. We then delve in genetic design and molecular biology techniques required in synthetic biology. Finally, we will look at examples of synthetic biology frameworks such as projects in the IGEM competition that pushed the boundaries in various fields of science. We can assemble so many machines from our DNA Lego bits with the right knowledge.

Cambridge | Department of Medicine / Department of Engineering

Nanotechnology is a multidisciplinary field that draws from physics, chemistry, biology, and engineering. It is a rapidly evolving field that offers novel solutions for many industrial challenges. In this research course, students will learn about various aspects of nanotechnology and nanomaterials, and how they are applied to create devices such as solar cells, superconductors, and medical sensors.

This research course covers the entire process of sensor data science: data collection, pre-processing, feature extraction, and machine learning modelling. Mobile and wearable sensors will be mainly used, and the types of sensor data covered include motion (e.g. vibration/acceleration, GPS), physiological signals (e.g. heart rate, skin temperature), and interaction data (e.g. app usage). Students will learn the basic digital signal processing and feature extraction techniques. Basic machine learning techniques will be reviewed, and students will master these techniques with a final mini-project to solve real-world sensor data science problems.

MIT | Department of Mathematics

Geometry, the study of shapes, is a fundamental aspect of both mathematics and our understanding of the world around us. In this advanced research course, we will embark on an exploration of the beautiful and intricate structures that define our universe. By the end of the course, students will have developed a strong foundation in modern differential geometry and be guided to write a paper proving a geometric theorem on their own, providing them with a taste of conducting research in pure mathematics.

Cambridge | Faculty of Philosophy 

This research course will delve into the intricate relationship between mathematics and philosophy. Students will explore topics such as mathematical logic, set theory, and computability theory. The aim of this course is to inspire students to engage in independent research projects focusing on fundamental questions in mathematics, logic, and philosophy. Through this exploration, students will gain a fresh perspective on mathematics and its connection to broader philosophical inquiries.

Cambridge | Department of Computer Science and Technology

For millennia, humanity has pondered the nature of reasoning and whether it can be governed by clear rules. The quest for these “simple enough” rules, rooted in basic principles yet powerful enough to encompass various processes, spurred the development of mathematical logic and theoretical models of computation. This research course explores this historical journey, from Euclid’s axioms to the works of Frege, Peano, Russell, Gödel, and Turing, delving into formal systems, Gödel’s incompleteness theorems, and computational models like recursive functions and Turing machines. Bridging theory and practice, students explore automated reasoning and interactive theorem proving, gaining insight into the potential and limitations of formal systems, thus equipping them with tools for their development and application.

National Institutes of Health (NIH) | National Cancer Institute

Machine learning has emerged as a powerful tool across various industries, revolutionising how we approach complex problems. At its core, machine learning relies heavily on mathematical principles and techniques to make sense of data and make informed decisions. In this research course, students will be introduced to many concepts in advanced mathematics, from linear algebra, to derivatives, gradients, optimisation theory and information theory. By the end of the research course, students will gain a solid understanding of the mathematical principles that drive machine learning algorithms, equipping them with the knowledge and skills needed to tackle complex problems in the field.

In this research course, we will cover the fundamentals of machine learning as well as study how to develop code that can be applied to engineering system design. This research course will allow students to hone their coding skills, predominantly using Python, in order to perform linear regressions, data analytics, Bayesian optimizations, and multi-parameter analyses for engineering design cases. Having the ability to program and code in Python is an increasingly vital skill for all engineers. This course will be of interest to students interested in bioengineering, mechanical engineering, aerospace engineering, with a specific focus on using machine learning and computer vision tools.

Cambridge | Language Technology Lab 

In this research course, we will explore key concepts in Deep Learning and Natural Language Processing. Hands-on components will let the students build and train deep learning models, fine-tune advanced language models like GPTs. This research course offers a transformative experience, gearing the students up for future academic and professional pursuits in AI.

Oxford | Department of Biomedical Engineering 

The focus of this research course is learning end-to-end models for these tasks, particularly image classification and segmentation, using machine learning architectures. During this course, students will gain a detailed understanding of cutting-edge research in the fields of artificial intelligence, computer vision, and artificial neural networks. Additionally, the final assignment will allow them to apply their hands-on knowledge to real-world vision problems.

Large Language Models (LLMs) such as ChatGPTs are changing the world we live in. This course will offer an engaging journey through the evolution of language modelling, from basic statistical methods to cutting-edge Large Language Models. Designed for high school students with an interest in computer science, linguistics, or artificial intelligence, the course provides a solid foundation in the principles and applications of language modelling. 

Oxford | Department of Biomedical Engineering 

This research course introduces students to large-scale language models like GPT, exploring how machines comprehend and generate human-like text. It blends theory with practical exercises in natural language processing, aiming to demystify AI and inspire further study and careers in technology. Beginning with intensive introductions to machine learning and neural networks, the course progresses to independent research projects supervised by faculty. Students delve into advanced NLP techniques and are prompted to consider the ethical implications and boundaries of AI.

Imperial College London | Department of Computing

This research course delves into the realm of Natural Language Processing (NLP) and Large Language Models (LLMs), such as ChatGPT, which have revolutionised various domains but are prone to errors with significant implications. It aims to equip students with NLP tools to analyse, understand, and mitigate LLM errors. Beginning with NLP basics, the course explores LLM principles, architecture, and training methods, fostering hands-on experience with state-of-the-art tools for error analysis. Students engage in ethical discussions on AI deployment and decision-making, emphasising accountability and fairness. Through independent research projects, students investigate LLM errors, developing critical thinking and problem-solving skills essential for responsible AI development.

This research course provides an introduction to Machine Learning, aiming to demystify its concepts and practical applications. Students will gain intuition and skills in applying Machine Learning to real-world tasks, particularly focusing on text and image-related problems. Through hands-on projects, they’ll learn problem identification, dataset selection, data preprocessing, model selection, evaluation, and improvement techniques. By the course’s end, students will be equipped to navigate the field of Machine Learning confidently, with practical research experience and the ability to critically assess advancements in the field.

This research course is an in-depth exploration of the realm of social networks, arguably the most important platform for collaboration and communication among the global population. We will explore the widespread adoption of social media platforms such as Facebook, Twitter, Instagram etc., which enable users to share diverse content like opinions, experiences, perspectives, and various media formats. Additionally, students will be taught cutting-edge methodologies for analysing and visualising data pertaining to social network structures and dynamics.

Oxford | Department of Engineering Science 

In this research course, students will gain an understanding of how AI-based technologies are revolutionising healthcare. Students will be introduced to biomedical sensors and wearable systems and gain knowledge on the underlying physiological phenomena. They will also learn to programme in Python/MATLAB and implement their own AI pipeline on healthcare data, from scratch.

This research course explores how Artificial Intelligence (AI) is reshaping medical imaging, from improving diagnostic accuracy to enhancing patient outcomes. Students gain theoretical knowledge and practical experience in applying AI to various medical imaging modalities, learning about machine learning and deep learning techniques. Specific AI applications like computer-aided diagnosis systems and image reconstruction are examined, highlighting their potential to streamline healthcare workflows and benefit patients. Through independent research projects, students gain a deeper understanding of AI’s transformative impact on medical imaging and healthcare delivery.

Cambridge | Department of Engineering

Virtual Reality (VR) and Mixed Reality (MR) hold immense potential and represent the future of technology. They find applications in training simulations, gaming, healthcare therapies, architectural visualisation, manufacturing, and design. In this research course, students will be introduced to these cutting-edge technologies and learn how to unlock their potential through their research projects. During the research project, students will have the opportunity to choose from a variety of related topics, ranging from VR simulations to the development of tactile interfaces and psychophysical studies.

Oxford | Oxford Robotics Institute

This research course offers students a comprehensive understanding of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML) in the context of robotics. It delves into advanced concepts and cutting-edge applications, catering to those interested in the intersection of AI and robotics. Students gain a strong foundation in AI/ML before exploring the intricacies of robotics, including its challenges and transformative potential across industries. Equipped with this knowledge, they are prepared to pursue careers in robotics, automation engineering, or AI research, ready to contribute meaningfully to this dynamic field.

Harvard | The Institute for Quantitative Social Science (IQSS)

This research course equips students with advanced statistical, machine learning, and AI methods to address complex social science issues such as political polarisation, gerrymandering, and criminal justice. It aims to demystify these methods and provide practical guidance on their evaluation and application. Through hands-on experience with real-world datasets, students learn to use tools like GitHub and cloud computing for analysis. The course covers a range of methods including Ordinary Least Squares, Bayesian statistics, Large Language Models, and survey methods, preparing students to communicate results effectively to policymakers and the public.

Cambridge | Department of Applied Mathematics and Theoretical Physics

This research course will provide an introduction to quantum processes. We will begin by expounding the principles of quantum mechanics in our setting (and Dirac notation) and then immediately make connections to information (quantum states viewed as information carriers, quantum teleportation) and computation (notion of qubits and quantum gates). At the same time, we will discuss quantum cryptography (quantum key distribution), and quantum computing, culminating in an exposition of principal quantum algorithms, such as the Deutsch-Jozsa algorithm. While no previous knowledge of quantum physics is required for this course, a relatively strong background in mathematics or physics would be beneficial.

Princeton | Department of Chemistry

This research course focuses on classic light-matter interactions, delving into the realm of physical chemistry, with a special emphasis on photoluminescence. Throughout the course, students will grasp the fundamental principles of light-matter interactions, including basic quantum mechanics to extend their understanding from classical to quantum physics. Through hands-on experimentation, they will cultivate a deeper understanding of the dynamic processes that govern the interplay of light and matter.

Cambridge | Centre for Quantum Information and Foundations

Quantum physics is confirmed with overwhelming experimental evidence at the microscopic scales (e.g., at the atomic scale), producing many technological applications. This research course will address the foundational issues of quantum physics as it relates to quantum measurement and general relativity. Students with a relatively strong background in mathematics or physics would excel in this research course.

MIT | Kavli Institute for Astrophysics and Space Research 

Astronomy is entering an unprecedented era of big data, as new facilities are observing more phenomena than humans can possibly visually examine. Dealing with millions of astronomical objects and producing terabytes of data every day requires machine learning and statistical methods to classify, model, and characterise the data influx. In this research course, we will learn cutting-edge machine-learning methods and apply them to real astronomical datasets to discover, model, and further our understanding of the universe

Oxford | Department of Physics 

White dwarfs, neutron stars and black holes are compact objects forming at the final stages of the evolution of massive stars. In this research course, we will learn the nature of compact objects and see their place in the history of the universe. During the research course, we will touch on many topics from high energy astrophysics and talk about the recent progress in the detection of gravitational waves. Finally, we will discuss open issues standing in front of the scientific community and try to figure out how further steps in the investigation of black holes, neutron stars, and white dwarfs will help in probes of fundamental physics under extreme conditions.

This research course deals with the structure and evolution of isolated stars and starts in binary systems.Through a blend of theoretical concepts, observational data, and computational models, student will gain an understanding of the physical phenomena governing stars’ evolution. Throughout the research course, students will engage in hands-on activities, computer simulations, and observational projects to reinforce theoretical concepts and gain practical skills in data analysis.

Oxford | Beecroft Institute for Particle Astrophysics and Cosmology

Our standard model of cosmology posits that around 85% of the matter in the universe is “dark matter”: an elusive, invisible, hypothetical substance that interacts noticeably with ordinary matter only through gravity. A key challenge in astrophysics is mapping out dark matter using subtle observations that give us clues to its gravitational influence, such as the arrangement of billions of galaxies photographed by telescopes and the bending of light by dark matter’s gravity. We will gain hands-on experience with advanced statistical techniques and machine learning methods, utilizing the same tools used by leading academic researchers in the field that allows us to unravel its secrets.

Cambridge | Faculty of Economics 

Networks are all around us. From the architecture of financial systems, trade between companies and across countries, to the complex transportation system linking cities. This research course will explore how the events within the network interact and influence one another, and how can we represent, describe, or predict the events. We will emphasise a computational approach to social and economic network applications. Students will learn how to use Python to set and simulate network models; they will become familiar with the most recent research and techniques in network science and will develop excellent research skills. 

Oxford | Center for Experimental Social Sciences

Combining insights from economics, psychology and philosophy, this research course teaches students how experiments have advanced economic theory to better reflect the world we live in. Departing from standard theory which assumes humans are coldly rational and always make decisions that offer the greatest personal benefit, students will learn how experiments have shown us that behaviour consistently differs in predictable ways. As students develop their understanding of the common biases we all exhibit, they will be encouraged to apply the lessons they’ve learned to their own experiences.

Oxford | Department of Primary Care Sciences

This research-intensive course serves as an exploration into the relationship between economics, mental health, addiction and substance use. We will discuss addiction and substance use through an economic lens, and students will be introduced to cutting-edge theories and models. Students will develop their research skills within health economics, particularly focusing on economic evaluations. With a spotlight on methodologies employed to assess the cost-effectiveness of healthcare interventions, students will engage in rigorous examination and measurement of health outcomes and cost valuation. They will also learn how to apply economic evaluations alongside clinical trials and employ decision-modelling techniques crucial for comprehensive research projects in mental health economics.

Columbia | Department of Economics 

To improve our understanding of the economic impact of the pandemic, this research course will introduce students to surveys of several contemporary policy issues in economic literature. Notably, we will discuss current economic and financial matters arising through and after the COVID-19 pandemic.

Harvard University | The Center for Labor and a Just Economy (CLJE)

This research course delves into the multidisciplinary study of skilled immigration, combining economics, policy analysis, and case studies.This research course offers a comprehensive exploration of skilled immigration economics, bridging the gap between research and policy. By completion, participants will be equipped with a solid foundation in the field, enabling them to critically analyse and actively contribute to ongoing discussions regarding skilled immigration and its economic impact.

Brown | Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs, Center for Environmental Studies

Oceans define our borders, but also enable the global exchange of goods, services and ideas. In fact, the World Economic Forum estimates that the ocean will be the eighth largest economy in the world based on direct economic activity and the resources and services it provides to us on an annual basis. The goal of this research course is to understand how human activities in the world’s oceans are governed currently, and to explore international, regional and state efforts to develop a more equitable and sustainable Blue Economy.

KU Leuven (US News World Top 50) | Department of Economics

This research course explores Game Theory, an interdisciplinary field that delves into strategic decision-making across different domains. Game Theory uncovers hidden strategies and dynamics behind decision-making in diverse situations, influencing individuals, organisations, nations, and animals. By the end of the course, interactive discussions, case studies, and real-world examples will have enriched the students’ understanding of game theory concepts, fostering a solid foundation in strategic thinking across diverse contexts.

This research course offers an immersive exploration into how economic decisions shape the trajectory of our planet’s future. Students will delve into a rich array of topics, including the management of non-renewable resources such as oil and gas, the harnessing of renewable resources like solar and wind energy, and the critical analysis of cost-benefit implications associated with green policies and sustainable development initiatives.

Cambridge | Department of Sociology 

Issues relating to ‘race’ and ethnicity, whether #blacklivesmatter or COVID-19, today lie at the forefront of public debate. In this course, students will critically analyze the concepts and processes of ‘race’ and ethnicity, understand as social constructions, looking at the UK, the US, and beyond.

Cambridge | Department of Sociology

This research course aims to cultivate critical thinking and provide a comprehensive understanding of contemporary global development issues. Topics we will discuss include, Millennium and Sustainable Development Goals, development traps, pandemic and post-pandemic challenges, urbanisation and gentrification, development theory, international and regional co‑operation for development, bottom-up perspective, decolonial studies, development and intersectionality, and corruption, among others. 

Columbia | Department of Sociology

For decades, international declarations such as the Sustainable Development Goals have advocated for educational reform to tackle pressing global challenges including sustainability issues and climate change. Despite these calls for transformative education toward sustainability, progress remains limited. But why is that? What actions are countries and education systems taking? How are they implementing these changes? And who else is shaping the agenda to educate for more sustainable and just societies? Through this research course, we will explore public policy process theories to understand the politics of policymaking in education.

Bodies are central to the human experience. We move, function in society, and make sense of our existence and relatedness through our bodies. However, within our societies, not all bodies are treated equally. Based on social rules and norms, some bodies are deemed deviant, incomplete, marginalised, or less than, compared to others. This research course invites students to critically explore the relationship between intersectionality and the body. Through engaging with thought-provoking literature, this course will open up discussions about how bodies are disciplined, moulded, surveyed, and the hierarchies formed around bodies.

Oxford | Centre on Migration, Policy and Society (COMPAS)

This research course offers a comprehensive exploration of contemporary migration. The course equips students with critical thinking skills to assess and engage with public debates and policies surrounding migration. By combining theory, case studies, and interdisciplinary perspectives, students gain a holistic understanding of the multifaceted nature of contemporary migration and its significance in shaping societies and the world at large.

Oxford, Centre for Socio-Legal Studies | University of Toronto, Department of Sociology

This research course delves into violence, exploring its meaning, origins, and manifestations. It examines debates on defining and documenting violence, focusing on distinguishing interpersonal from state-sanctioned violence. The course analyses societal, cultural, and individual factors influencing violent behaviour, including legal frameworks and power dynamics. It scrutinises colonial legacies’ impact on violence and how racial and gender dynamics intersect with it. Overall, the course aims to provide a comprehensive understanding of violence as a complex social phenomenon shaped by historical influences, power dynamics, and cultural contexts.

Oxford | Faculty of Classics 

Why are languages so different – and thus so hard to learn? We will explore the social relevance of language and the results of language contact. Students will conduct independent research by constructing linguistic data, analysing big data and performing context-oriented keyword analysis. Students will investigate how language develops, interacts, and how to what extent we can manipulate our patterns of language usage for specific purposes.

Columbia | Department of Architecture

This research course explores the intersection of architecture with social, political, and environmental concerns, prompting critical inquiry into the discipline’s role in addressing contemporary challenges. Students examine debates and arguments surrounding architecture’s engagement with societal issues and its environmental impact. Through case studies spanning recent decades, topics such as aesthetics, sustainability, spatial organisation, and cultural contexts are explored. Emphasis is placed on developing a nuanced understanding of architecture’s role in addressing pressing issues while maintaining fidelity to its unique principles. The course fosters critical thinking and encourages students to navigate the complexities of architectural discourse within broader societal contexts.

Columbia, School of Business | Geico, Head of Marketing

In today’s ultra-competitive business world, effective Marketing Management and Brand Strategy are key components for any business to achieve success. However, these are not easy tasks, especially given that modern-day consumers are constantly overwhelmed with information. This research course introduces the principles of brand management and advertising as practised by industry leaders today. This research course is relevant for students interested in driving consumer demand regardless of career path.

Cambridge | Judge Business School 

Why do some start-ups receive a valuation of several billion dollars, while others cannot even raise the amount to get by and survive? Why do only a handful of start-ups go public? The research course will focus on entrepreneurial finance, i.e. venture capital investment. This research course exposes students to the core theories, concepts, and tools used to screen high-potential start-ups and maximize the return on investment. Students will learn key theoretical concepts, tools, and approaches to entrepreneurial finance and their application in valuation and investment in new businesses. 

Australian National University | Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis (CAMA)

What drives stock prices? This research course covers the basics of stock market dynamics. Students will grasp fundamental concepts in finance and economics, and specifically, learn to forecast economic and financial data using statistics and economic models. Real-world case studies, simulations, and practical exercises will be integrated to provide hands-on experience in applying modelling techniques and investment strategies to actual financial data. By the end of this research course, students will be equipped to make informed investment decisions and manage financial risk adeptly in today’s dynamic financial markets.

Cambridge | Cambridge Judge Business School

Investments, securities, markets, bonds, trading…This is a dynamic and engaging research course designed to explore the fascinating world of finance. It will provide students with a solid foundation in financial markets, trading, and the principles that drive stock prices, making it perfect for those interested in pursuing careers in business, economics, or investing, simply wanting to understand how financial markets operate.

LSE | Department of Management

In this research course, students learn to question and apply sociological or psychological theories to understand inequalities in organisations. The course particularly helps students to understand why women don’t progress at the same pace as men at work. The course specifically looks at gender and stereotypes attached to the gender within a society and how this transpires to the workplaces. It also extends to other identities that might equally explain the reasons for inequalities within workplaces. By studying this course and working on their independent research projects, students will develop hands-on research skills and also understand the interdisciplinary process of applying theories from different fields in solving complex problems.

This research course focuses on organisational behaviour, aiming to understand how individuals’ actions impact organisational success. Through case studies and discussions, students explore the dynamics that shape behaviour within startups, social enterprises, and other organisations. The course delves into psychological and sociological perspectives, examining how cultural factors influence decision-making and behaviour, particularly in global contexts. Students conduct independent research projects to gain insights into real-world scenarios and develop a comprehensive understanding of organisational dynamics and effectiveness.

Cambridge | Department of Politics and International Studies 

The key question of this research course is: ‘How to maintain stability and order in a world that seems to be changing at an ever increasing pace?’ Students will be introduced to the fundamentals of Europe post-World War II order, the foundations of post-1991 US hegemony, the rise and growing integration of China in the global economy, aspects of revisionism by Russia, and the geostrategic challenges of growing multipolarity.

Cambridge | Department of Politics and International Studies

Students will be introduced into key texts on the causes of war, including material from psychology, evolutionary biology, archaeology, history, social anthropology, and international relations. The course will furthermore draw on a selected range of cases from mythology, history, and current instances of warfare in order to illustrate some of the most cogent hypotheses. It will also explore the purpose and rationality of warfare, be it for territorial expansion, economic gain, for religious faith, or for collective identity. Last not least, the course aims to assess possibilities of preventing, containing, or regulating war as a system of organised violence by means of legal and ethical norms as well as strategies of conflict-resolution.

Oxford | European Studies Centre

Is democracy under siege? This research course focuses on understanding the challenges facing democracy today, including the rise of autocratic regimes and the erosion of democratic norms. Students explore the factors contributing to democratic decline through scholarly literature, case studies, and empirical data analysis. They engage in original research projects using diverse methodologies to investigate the root causes and consequences of democratic erosion. By cultivating analytical skills and interdisciplinary dialogue, students aim to contribute to the study of democratic governance and political theory. The course culminates in research papers offering insights and recommendations for safeguarding democratic principles in the global landscape.

UCLA | Department of Sociology

Students will be able to analyse the world in ways that transcend binaries between nature (natural sciences) and society (social sciences), particularly in relation to real-world issues like climate, environmental sustainability, transitions, health inequality, and environmental justice. Engaged students will obtain a nuanced and diverse set of analytical tools to assist in understanding how “the environment” and environmental matters cannot be understood outside of and apart from the social world, and how the social world is deeply intertwined and embedded within “the environment.”

Making one’s voice heard in public was a sought-after skill for those at the heart of the Athenian democracy, the Roman republic and later the Roman empire. The skilful use of language was a critical tool and a powerful weapon. We will focus from the orators of the Athenian democracy to the politicians of the Roman republic. Students will develop an independent research project on political rhetoric, ancient history or relevant areas in the context of its time and discourse.

University of Chicago | Booth School of Business

There is a significant contemporary debate on how the state should interact with the individual, especially in the context of respecting the individual’s concepts of norms, privacy, and history. Students will conduct their independent research project throughout the research course, which will enable them to explore and delve into the central questions surrounding law, economics, and political philosophy.

Dartmouth | Department of Philosophy

This research course delves into the concept of personal identity and self-transformation, exploring questions about what defines an individual’s identity. Topics include whether the self is constituted by narratives, if it persists over time, and the role of embodied cognition. Students also examine how social factors such as culture, religion, and identification with social groups influence personal identity. Ethical considerations regarding self-transformation, including changes in values and authenticity, are also explored. The course draws from philosophy, psychology, biology, and social sciences to address these complex issues.

Oxford | Nissan Institute of Japanese Studies

This research course will allow students to investigate different feminisms that have been employed by feminists across East Asia in the 20th Century and up until the present day. The course will broadly focus on constructions of femininity, masculinity, non-binary, and other identities in Japan, Korea, and China. AdditionallyHowever, it will allow students flexibility to explore other areas in the region and take a transnational approach to historical work. We will also look at how these identities and the disparities between them contributed to the emergence of many transformed into many different feminist movements across and between places in this region. These feminisms will include formal protest movements, literary movements, grassroots organisations, and more subtle cultural critiques of gender normativity.

Harvard | Lakshmi Mittal and Family South Asia Institute

Was colonialism good for the world, or did it make life worse for people who lived under it? This is a live debate among people who are still trying to come to terms with their colonial pasts. This research course probes such questions by examining the British Empire during the 19th and 20th centuries, its means of expansion, economic incentives, and its racial assumptions. The course explores special topics relating to the imperial legacy. These include trade in cotton, opium and tea; colonial wars fought in Afghanistan and China, and anti-colonial movements, such as the one led by Gandhi, in the twentieth century. We also discuss violence, the drawing of borders, emigration, and refugees. The case studies of Israel-Palestine and India-Pakistan will factor prominently.

Cambridge/Brandeis/NYU | Center for Middle East Studies

Since the global financial crisis of 2008, understanding the history of capitalism has become more crucial than ever, sparking a surge of interest and discourse. In this research course, we delve into the complexities of capitalism beyond face-value narratives. We will develop a comprehensive and critical understanding of capitalism, including its historical evolution and transformation, and its profound and far-reaching impact on our society and the world. Students will understand the importance of a global perspective in comprehending capitalism’s development and impact across various regions and cultures.

Cambridge / Brandeis / NYU | Center for Middle East Studies

Does anyone deserve to be unfree? What does captivity tell us about freedom? This research course tracks the history of captivity, prison, and incarceration. We examine laws and literatures of captivity in ancient Rome and the mediaeval Islamic world through to humanitarian debates around slavery and modern prisons and the political economy of successive wars on Crime, Poverty, Drugs, and Terror in the Americas. Our protagonists range from anti-colonial nationalists in Kenya and Chinese indentured labourers, to prisoners of the Russo-Ottoman wars and convict labourers in Australia.

MIT | Department of Literature 

This research course will explore key topics and texts in Black, Latinx, and Indigenous literature. Students will learn how to read closely different literary forms as well as how to perform the kind of interdisciplinary research that analysing texts from a racial justice lens requires. Some of the authors we will read include James Baldwin, Ta-Nehisi Coates, Audre Lorde, Gloria Anzaldua, Valeria Luiselli, and Tommy Orange. In addition to analysing literary works, students will also explore key concepts from Black, Latinx, and Indigenous studies such as double-consciousness, the borderland, decoloniality, Afrofuturism, and critical fabulation.

U Chicago | Department of History

The aim of this course is to introduce a history of contemporary art from China since the 1970s. The course begins with a brief overview of modern art activities in China during the early 20th century along with art production under Mao. The course will then focus on contemporary avant-garde movements during the 1970s and 1980s, the response to urbanisation in art at the onset of the new millennium, the influence of globalisation since 2000, and a new generation of young artists from China as well as Chinese diasporic artists working transnationally.

Princeton | Seeger Center for Hellenic Studies

This research course explores the dynamic relationship between art and colonialism in the Mediterranean, from antiquity to the modern day. It offers a comprehensive examination of how diverse colonial powers have influenced and shaped the rich tapestry of cultural production within the region. Employing a multidisciplinary approach, the course blends art history, cultural studies, and historical analysis to unravel the nuanced complexities of artistic expression within the intricate web of colonisation.

Course Structure

Each 13-week research course is divided into two parts

Lecture Weeks (1 - 7)

Build up your foundation of knowledge

With support from your mentor and TAs, you will first gain a grounding in your field of research. In addition to 1 hour of lecture a week from your mentor, you will also receive 1 hour of seminar discussion from your TA, and an 30 minute office hour on request.

Research Weeks (8 - 13)

Plan and execute your own research project

Beginning with a research and methodology session, you will then transition into self-directed work. During this research phase of the course, your lecture sessions will become research workshops and your TA sessions will become writing sessions.

Programme Details

weekly session with faculty mentor

weekly session with PhD TA

weekly 1-on-1 Office Hour on request

correspondence and guidance from faculty mentor and CCIR Academics Team

admitted students per course

average faculty to student ratio

Overall Acceptance Rate

How to Apply

Step 1: Read Future Scholar Prospectus

Download the programme prospectus, explore the courses on offer, and carefully review the admissions process page.

Step 2: Register for CCIR Admissions Portal and Submit Application

Start drafting the required application form and documentation on the Admissions Portal.

Step 3: Interview

Successful applicants will be invited to an interview with either the research course’s faculty mentor, the Teaching Assistant, or a CCIR Academic Advisor.

During the 15 to 30 minute interview, we’ll assess your background, interests, and your ability to think through problems in your field.

Admission Deadlines & Start Dates (2024)

Pre-Application Opens

Official Admission Opens ( Pre-Application Deadline)

Early Admission Deadline

Regular Admission Deadline

Programme Start Date

Late Mar/ Early Apr

Late Oct/ Early Nov

Admission decisions will be made on a rolling basis.

Frequently Asked Questions

Our students come from all around the world and we have become extremely good at coordinating schedules that work for everyone. At the start of every course, we will hammer out the logistics to make sure that we can find a time that works perfectly for everyone involved.

Every video conferencing session will be hosted by a CCIR operations team member. You are welcome to raise the issue through chat at any time. You can also send an email to [email protected], which is monitored at all times during active sessions.

Yes. Every session will be recorded and made available after class. You can access them via an unlisted playlist on YouTube or your Learning Management System.

The only requirements are the Internet (Zoom or compatible browser), front-facing camera, and microphone. Some courses may require specific softwares to be installed. Your mentor and TA will do their best to help you install those softwares.

A number of things differentiate CCIR Academy from other programmes:

IVY-LEAGUE / OXBRIDGE FACULTY AND TEAM

We only partner with current teaching faculty members at top-tier US/UK universities, including Cambridge, Oxford, Harvard, Stanford, MIT, Columbia, Cornell, UPenn, Yale, Dartmouth, and Princeton.

We are also an organisation currently run by Oxbridge students and alumni. Throughout the admission process, every single point of contact an applicant interacts with will be either a current Oxbridge student (PhD or above) or an Oxbridge alumni.

A FOCUS ON PUBLICATION

The goal of CCIR Academy is to push every student to publish their independent research paper to at least an undergraduate or industry level journal or conference. We do not recommend students to publish at predatory pay-for-publish journals or high school level journals. Each student can enjoy the vast research and publication resource that CCIR has to offer, which includes free access to academic database and targeted publication support. As a result, we have great success in having high school students to publish at some undergraduate or even industry level journals and conferences.

SMALL GROUP TEACHING/INTIMATE MENTORSHIP

At the heart of our programmes is the relationship between students and their mentors. For our Cambridge Future Scholar programme, our class is limited to no more than 5 students. The small classes ensure ample interaction and thought provoking discussions always take place at each session.

RESEARCH-ORIENTED LEARNING

Unlike lecture-only programmes, where students learn passively, our programmes emphasize on hand-on research. This kind of project based learning allows students to really dive into the subject and learn in an independent and autonomous manner.

HIGH ACADEMIC STANDARDS

Our commitment to maintaining the highest academic standards is reflected in our admissions, our courses, and in the expectations we have on our students. All our programmes are meant to be genuinely challenging and enriching academic experiences for our students.

Most importantly, by the end of your time at a CCIR programme, you will have completed a substantive independent research project. In certain cases, under the guidance of the mentors and our team, your research project will also be published in academic journals or presented at conferences. All our CCIR programmes award graduation certificates and in-depth evaluation reports. Finally, you will have fostered a close personal relationship with a Oxbridge faculty member from whom you can request a letter of recommendation.

Because of the academic rigor and the small size of our programmes, we are able to deliver an experience for our students that is at once fun and academically enriching. Over the course of the programme, as students work with one another and with the faculty, they will develop relationships that will push them both personally and intellectually.

All our students have the option of requesting letters of recommendation from their mentors. While we cannot guarantee letters of recommendation, we can say that in the past, because our admitted students are all capable and passion at, not a single student who has requested a letter of recommendation has had their request denied.

Attending CCIR may improve your chances in college/graduate admissions in a number of ways. Most importantly, CCIR offers you a great opportunity to produce and possibly even publish a genuinely impressive piece of academic work. In addition, since you will be interacting intimately with your Oxbridge mentor over a long period of time, your mentor will also likely become an excellent referee for you in the admissions process.

Generally speaking, our programmes consist of roughly 1-2 hours of face-to-face interaction hours per week. In addition to the class time, students will be expected to do readings and write essays. On average, including interaction hours, students are expected to devote a total of roughly 4 hours a week for their programme.

All CCIR Academy programmes are conducted online with the support of multiple platforms — video conferencing, learning management systems, etc.

Detailed tuition information, including merit scholarship opportunities, can be found in our programme prospectus.

Most importantly, your tuition covers supervisions, lectures, and additional weekly one-on-one office hours (30 minutes), if requested. Additionally, your tuition covers your access to Cambridge or Oxford’s academic database (via mentor), Data collection guidance (by the mentor), academic journal submission guidance (by the mentor and CCIR Academic Team), and academic support both during the course of the programme and in the follow up (when you need to request letters and evaluations).

To get more information about our programmes, the best way is to download our prospectus through the “Download Prospectus” button on bottom right. If you have more specific questions, please contact our Admissions Team at [email protected]. If you’re a counselor or a teacher interested in collaborating with our programme, contact Oliver, our Director of Outreach at [email protected].

CCIR is looking for students who are not just academically strong but who are genuinely passionate about the subject matter for which they are applying. This means you have to demonstrate academic strength in your GPA and your other test scores (if applicable) and show us that you are someone who possesses a genuine passion for learning.

CCIR’s Future Scholar Programme and Future Entrepreneur Programme is designed for sixth form (11th and 12th grade in the US) students. The programme’s curriculum mirrors first-year teaching material at Oxbridge. However, we often receive applications of, and admitted, talented students attending lower levels.

The 1-on-1 Mentorship Programme, on the other hand, is much more flexible. In the past, we have both offered mentorships for younger students who were especially talented and mentorships for undergraduate students.

We are standardized test optional in our admissions. As long as we can see your school transcripts, you’ll be fine.

For the 1-on-1 programmes, our applications are rolling all year round.

For the Future Scholar Programme, applications for these course are all rolling once opened, until the each class is filled at maximum number of five.

All applicants are automatically considered for the merited scholarships. If you face economic hardship and seek financial aid, please inform our Academic Coordinator at [email protected] and we can make arrangements to best accommodate your situation.

We definitely don’t want you to stress over the interview. While there is an evaluative dimension to our interviews, the primary purpose of these interviews is to get a sense of what you have already known about the subject and what your academic passions are. The interviews are all very casual and conversational in style—so just be prepared to come in prepared to chat about your academic interests.

In a word: quite. We are hoping to push you academically and intellectually. However, be assured that you will be closely guided and thoroughly supported throughout this challenging process. And in terms of time commitment, we understand that you are busy so our mentors will ensure that you will not be overloaded with work.

Depending on your project, this may take a number of forms. Survey-based research is a definite possibility, for instance, in the social sciences. In other cases, we instead rely on existing data sets that are either open-source or that are requested from other researchers.

In the age of big data, a growing amount of research in the sciences is actually conducted outside of the lab context. Large amounts of data already exist and what is needed is for researchers to mine that data for insights. Our mentors will teach you the skills and tools needed for scientific computing and data analysis.

Our programmes ultimately all adopt a project-based learning methodology. However, the project-based methodology is supplemented by more traditional methods of lecturing and supervision wherever necessary. Worth highlighting is the supervision format of our teaching: this small group teaching style, based on critical peer-to-mentor and peer-to-peer interaction, is a Oxbridge hallmark and one that we have made central to our pedagogical methods.

Download Programme Prospectus

• Programme structure
• Research course catalogue
• Professor biographies
• Tuition and Scholarship

Start Your Application

Cambridge Future Scholar (Fall 24)

Admission is OPEN.

Early Admissions Deadline: 1 Oct

Regular Admissions Deadline: 15 Oct

Rolling Admissions.

1-on-1 Research Mentorship Admission is open all year.

• Schools & departments

Global Change Institute

The Global Change Research Institute is a grouping of over 200 researchers whose overarching mission is to understand past, present and future changes in the Earth system, and to inform mitigation strategies for future change.

We host longstanding programmes in understanding how the atmosphere, biosphere, cryosphere, land surface and oceans have interacted in the past, in monitoring their current behaviour, and in developing predictions of their future dynamics. 

Building on these scientific foundations, we further engage in interdisciplinary research focussed on mitigating the many challenges posed by the global climate emergency, environmental hazards, inequalities, conservation and sustainability.

Our research extends throughout the world, over the seven continents, across all the oceans, from the poles to the equator,  and from the deep Earth to the upper atmosphere. 

Our members comprise around 100 academic and research staff, and around 130 postgraduate researchers. We research and teach across all GeoSciences disciplines including ecology, environmental science, geography, geology, geophysics and meteorology.   Due to the interdisciplinary nature of our research, our academic staff may belong to one or more groups across other institutes at the School.

Our research programmes typically involve field work, remote sensing, in situ monitoring, laboratory experimentation and analysis, theory, modelling and stakeholder engagement. 

Within the Institute, we exchange knowledge regularly in weekly seminar programmes and smaller research group discussions.  Twice-yearly, the Institute also comes together for the Global Change Symposia, where our students, staff and stakeholders discuss their latest developments and outline new grand challenges.

Our research groups

Due to the interdisciplinary nature of our research, academic staff may belong to one or more groups across our School institutes.

Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate of the Anthropocene

The Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate of the Anthropocene research group investigates key processes and drivers in the atmosphere and climate system, and predicts present-day and future changes in climate, atmospheric composition and air quality.

The Biosphere research group represents all life on Earth and the interface between the physical earth and the atmosphere. We push the frontiers of research on soils, freshwater, microbes and plants, their interactions and their role in the entire Earth system.

The Cryosphere research group combines field, satellite remote sensing, geophysical, geochronological and numerical modelling techniques to investigate how the cryosphere will be affected by predicted climate change, and to inform possible consequences on our society with respect to sea-level rise and water resources.

Land Surface Dynamics

The Land Surface Dynamics research group is focused on determining the Earth surface response to climatic and tectonic forcing in terms of erosional and sedimentary fluxes and the consequent geomorphology of the continents.

Oceans and Past Climate

The Oceans and Past Climate research group consists of researchers from a diverse range of backgrounds (oceanography, ecology, geochemistry, geology), who share an interest in developing an understanding of the oceans and their role in modulating and driving global environmental variability and change.

Environmental Change and Societal Transitions Research Group

We also form part of the Environmental Change and Societal Transitions research group within the Geography and Lived Environment Institute.

Environmental Change and Societal Transitions is an interdisciplinary group that explores the relationship between people, the environment and technology.  Our group consist of ecologists, human geographers, geographical information systems (GIS) specialists, political scientists, remote sensing scientists and anthropologists.

Visit the Environmental Change and Societal Transitions research group

This article was published on 2024-07-01

• U.S. Department of Health & Human Services

• Virtual Tour
• Staff Directory
• En Español

You are here

Nih…turning discovery into health ®, the future of biomedicine.

To achieve its goal of turning discovery into health and to maintain its role as the world's premier biomedical research agency, NIH must support the best scientific ideas and brightest scientific minds.  That means looking to the future and ensuring that we have a strong and diverse workforce to catalyze discoveries in all fields of biomedicine including emergent areas like data science.

tomorrow-science.jpg

Tomorrow’s Scientists

Part of the NIH mission is supporting the next generation of scientists, funding thousands of graduate students and postdoctoral fellows across the United States.

diversity-nih.jpg

Innovation Through Diversity

Enhancing diversity in the NIH-funded workforce is urgent, given shifting U.S. demographics and the need to draw insights from all corners of America.

« Previous: A Healthy Mind Next: Transformative Technologies »

This page last reviewed on November 16, 2023

Connect with Us

• More Social Media from NIH

Credit: Yaorusheng/Moment/Getty

Green Energy Research: Collaboration and Tools for a Sustainable Future

Science Article | Green Energy | 6 Sep 2024

The Urgency of Green Energy Innovation

The recent Climate Change 2023 synthesis report emphasizes the consequences of delayed emission reductions: fewer effective adaptation options for a warming planet 2 . Geopolitical factors like the Russia-Ukraine conflict further underscore the need for a green energy transition, with Europe’s energy security concerns highlighting the reliance on imported fossil fuels.

The Green Energy Research Landscape

Against this backdrop, green energy development has become a critical area of research, reflected in a more than 10-fold increase in related publications from 2010 (1,105) to 2023 (11,346), according to Digital Science’s Dimensions database. Researchers around the world are striving to improve green energy technology and society’s ability to harness renewable energy sources more efficiently.

According to data analysed by Nature Navigator , which uses artificial intelligence to generate comprehensive summaries of research topics, ‘renewable energy systems and technologies’ is the field’s most frequently mentioned subtopic (Fig.1). At a research concept level, wind power generation, grid optimization and resource management all feature as common underlying themes.

Figure 1: Topic anatomy of green energy research First-level nodes denote the research subtopic (highest prevalence themes emerging from green energy research). Second-level nodes denote the research concepts associated with these research subtopics. Note: only the research concepts mentioned in the highest count of outputs within each subtopic are presented here. Credit: Nature Research Intelligence

Of the primary green energy research subtopics presented by Nature Navigator , it is telling that ‘materials for energy storage and conversion’ is the fastest-growing, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 30.2% over the last five years. This may reflect a growing consensus among researchers and industry that a lack of options to efficiently store electricity generated by intermittent renewable sources for later use is a key bottleneck preventing the greater penetration of these sources into the grid.

Real-World Example: Accelerating Heat Pump Innovation

Changmo Sung, a prominent green energy researcher at Korea University, leveraged Nature Navigator to identify trends, key areas, and potential breakthroughs in heat pump technology. This facilitated a collaborative project with LG Electronics, accelerating their research efforts.

“It also enabled the rapid discovery of researchers and institutions outside Korea working on similar or complementary projects related to heat pumps” Sung says.

• International Energy Agency, Global Energy Review 2021 (2021).
• Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Climate Change 2023 (2023).

Ut enim ad minima veniam, quis nostrum exercitationem ullam corporis suscipit laboriosam

• About Our Founder
• Mission, Vision and Values
• 2028 Vision
• Board of Trustees
• Host-Pathogen Interactions (HPI)
• Disease Intervention & Prevention (DIP)
• Population Health (PH)
• International Center for the Advancement of Research and Education
• Southwest National Primate Research Center (SNPRC)
• High Containment
• Data Analysis Unit
• Cellular Biology Unit
• Microscopy Unit
• Molecular Unit
• Vivarium Unit
• Our Partners
• Our Technology
• Our Expertise
• Begin Discussion
• Disease Models
• Virus Request Form
• Reverse Genetics Plasmids Request Form
• Community Outreach Programs
• Education Program Leadership
• Curricular Units
• Internship Program Structure
• Teacher Professional Development
• High School Tours
• Valero Young Scientist Program
• American Cancer Society Post-Baccalaureate Fellows Program at Texas Biomed
• Media Contacts
• Media Inquiries
• Fact Sheets
• TxBiomed Magazine Summer 2022
• Media Library
• Experts Available for Comment
• Funding Priorities
• How To Give
• Connect With Us
• Giving Partners
• Make a Contribution
• Request Information
• Planned Giving
• Capital & Endowment Giving
• Honor & Memorial Giving
• The Argyle Membership Donation
• Texas Biomedical Forum
• Founder’s Council Board Members
• Founder’s Council Events
• Founder’s Council Membership
• Initiate / Renew Membership
• (X) Twitter

Monoclonal antibody shows protection against all COVID variants

Antibody developed in part by Associate Professor Greg Ippolito, Ph.D., works against a wide range of COVID-19 variants and related coronaviruses, including past, present and potentially future strains.

SAN ANTONIO (Sept. 5, 2024) — A monoclonal antibody appears effective at neutralizing the numerous variants of SARS-CoV-2, as well as related viruses in animals that could pose a threat if they were to begin spreading in people. The antibody, called SC27, was recently described in Cell Reports Medicine .

The finding opens the possibility of broader, more effective treatments to work against current and future COVID variants.

Monoclonal antibody SC27 was identified, developed and provisionally patented by a team of researchers led by Greg Ippolito , Ph.D., who recently joined Texas Biomedical Research Institute (Texas Biomed), from University of Texas at Austin. Other team leaders included Jason Lavinder, Ph.D., at UT and Ralph Baric, Ph.D., at University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.

“Other COVID-19 antibodies have been rendered ineffective as SARS-CoV-2 has evolved over the past several years,” says Dr. Ippolito, an Associate Professor. “Our new study suggests the virus is less likely to escape this treatment because SC27 targets and attaches to multiple parts of the virus’s spike protein, including sections that are not mutating as frequently.”

SC27 appears to work in two ways: it blocks the ACE2 binding site, which the virus uses to bind to, enter and infect cells. It also binds to a hidden or “cryptic” site on the underside of the spike protein that is largely unchanged or “conserved” between variants, which means SC27 can broadly recognize variants and related viruses. This is critical because if an antibody’s shape does not match enough with a virus – like two puzzle pieces that don’t quite fit – the antibody can’t effectively neutralize the virus and the virus sneaks by the body’s immune defense system.

The researchers tested SC27 against 12 viruses, from the original SARS-CoV-2 to currently circulating variants, as well as related SARS-1 and several other coronaviruses found in bats and pangolins. The antibody was effective against all of them in a petri dish and protected mice against both variants tested.

“This makes it broader and more effective than any other monoclonal antibody reported in scientific literature to date and the former FDA-approved cocktails,” says Dr. Ippolito, adding the caveat that SC27 still needs to be tested in human clinical trials.

The team is looking to collaborate with industry to further develop the SC27 monoclonal antibody treatment, which could potentially benefit immunocompromised patients who are unable to get vaccines. It also could serve as an emergency treatment during future outbreaks of new variants or coronaviruses. Next steps would include preclinical studies in larger animal models, including nonhuman primates, which are the gold standard to evaluate how complete immune systems respond to a treatment before safely moving to human clinical trials.

Notably, SC27 was found in individuals following vaccination with mRNA COVID-19 vaccines. Previously, this type of “class 1/4” antibody – which attaches to two distinct areas or “epitopes” of the spike protein – was only detected following natural infection from SARS-1.

“This is fantastic news that vaccines can prompt the generation of these more robust and effective antibodies,” explains Dr. Ippolito. “It means that future vaccine development can be tailored to generate these antibodies and have a clear metric for measuring which vaccines will be most effective.”

About Texas Biomed

Texas Biomed is a nonprofit research institute dedicated to protecting the global community from infectious diseases. Through basic research, preclinical testing and applied innovation, we accelerate diagnostics, therapies and vaccines for the world’s deadliest pathogens. Our San Antonio campus hosts high containment laboratories and the Southwest National Primate Research Center. Our scientists collaborate with industry and researchers globally, and have helped deliver the first COVID-19 vaccine, the first Ebola treatment and first Hepatitis C therapy. For more information, visit txbiomed.org .

An official website of the United States government, Department of Justice.

Here's how you know

Official websites use .gov A .gov website belongs to an official government organization in the United States.

Secure .gov websites use HTTPS A lock ( Lock A locked padlock ) or https:// means you’ve safely connected to the .gov website. Share sensitive information only on official, secure websites.

Alternative Traffic Enforcement: Identifying Areas for Future Research

Alternative traffic enforcement is an emerging crime and justice issue prompted by efforts of dozens of jurisdictions throughout the United States. In response to documented dangers and disparities, they seek to change how some traffic violations are handled. Specifically, these strategies try to increase public safety and reduce demands on officers by deprioritizing some traffic offenses and shifting enforcement responsibilities to alternative agencies or technologies. Most of these programs are in their infancy. Few have documented outcomes or formal evaluations to assess their effectiveness. As a result, there is a little information about the potential impact of recent initiatives on public and officer safety, disparities, and other important outcomes, which provides a fundamental research opportunity. The article first describes the issue and current state of U.S. alternative traffic enforcement strategies, highlighting challenges in measuring disparities. It then provides a summary of documented alternative traffic enforcement reforms, initiatives, and related research. The article closes with a description of future research opportunities.

Additional Details

Related topics, similar publications.

• Improved Nucleic Acid Recovery From Trace and Degraded Samples Using Affinity Purification
• Policing and the Safety Logic in the School Context: Perceptions of Danger and Definitions of Law Enforcement

• Future Proof – The opportunity to transform the UK’s resilience to extreme risks (Toby Ord, Angus Mercer, Sophie Dannreuther)
• Biosecurity risks associated with vaccine platform technologies (Jonas Sandbrink, Gregory Koblentz)
• Promoting versatile vaccine development for emerging pandemics (Joshua Monrad, Jonas Sandbrink, Neil Cherian)
• Safety and security concerns regarding transmissible vaccines (Jonas Sandbrink, Matthew Watson, Andrew Hebbeler, Kevin Esvelt)
• RNA Vaccines: A Suitable Platform for Tackling Emerging Pandemics? (Jonas Sandbrink, Robin Shattock)
• Artificial Canaries: Early Warning Signs for Anticipatory and Democratic Governance of AI (Cremer and Whittlestone) (also best paper at EPAI 2020)
• QNRs: Toward Language for Intelligent Machines (Eric Drexler)
• What is the Upper Limit of Value? (Anders Sandberg, David Manheim)
• Institutionalizing ethics in AI through broader impact requirements (Carina Prunkl, Carolyn Ashurst, Markus Anderljung, Helena Webb, Jan Leike & Allan Dafoe)
• Fully General Online Imitation Learning (Michael K Cohen, Marcus Hutter, Neel Nanda)
• Agent Incentives: A Causal Perspective (Tom Everitt, Ryan Carey, Eric Langlois, Pedro A Ortega, Shane Legg)
• Equilibrium Refinements for Multi-Agent Influence Diagrams: Theory and Practice (Lewis Hammond, James Fox, Tom Everitt, Alessandro Abate, Michael Wooldridge)
• Reputations for Resolve and Higher-Order Beliefs in Crisis Bargaining (Allan Dafoe, Remco Zwetsloot, Matthew Cebul)
• Rapid Proliferation of Pandemic Research: Implications for Dual-Use Risks (Sriharshita Musunuri, Jonas B. Sandbrink, Joshua Teperowski Monrad, Megan J. Palmer, Gregory D. Koblentz)
• Protocols and risks: when less is more (Jaspreet Pannu, Jonas B. Sandbrink, Matthew Watson, Megan J. Palmer & David A. Relman)
• The Incentives that Shape Behaviour. (Ryan Carey, Eric Langlois, Tom Everitt, and Shane Legg, SafeAI@AAAI)
• Defence in Depth Against Human Extinction: Prevention, Response, Resilience, and Why They All Matter (Owen Cotton‐Barratt, Max Daniel & Anders Sandberg in Global Policy; DOI 10.1111/1758-5899.12786)
• The Windfall Clause: Distributing the Benefits of AI for the Common Good (Cullen O’Keefe, Peter Cihon, Ben Garfinkel, Carrick Flynn, Jade Leung, Allan Dafoe)
• How does the offense-defense balance scale?
• Contact tracing apps can help stop coronavirus. But they can hurt privacy. (Toby Shevlane, Ben Garfinkel, Allan Dafoe in Washington Post)
• Social and Governance Implications of Improved Data Efficiency. (Tucker, A. D., Anderljung, M. & Dafoe, A.) arXiv preprint arXiv:2001.05068
• The Logic of Strategic Assets: From Oil to Artificial Intelligence (Ding, J. & Dafoe, A.). arXiv preprint arXiv:2001.03246
• Open Problems in Cooperative AI (Allan Dafoe, Edward Hughes, Yoram Bachrach, Tantum Collins, Kevin R. McKee, Joel Z. Leibo, Kate Larson, Thore Graepel)
• Beyond Near- and Long-Term: Towards a Clearer Account of Research Priorities in AI Ethics and Society (Carina Prunkl & Jess Whittlestone)
• A Guide to Writing the NeurIPS Impact Statement (Carolyn Ashurst, Markus Anderljung, Carina Prunkl, Jan Leike, Yarin Gal, Toby Shevlane, Allan Dafoe)
• Toward Trustworthy AI Development: Mechanisms for Supporting Verifiable Claims (arXiv:2004.07213)
• Asymptotically unambitious artificial general intelligence. In AAAI, M. K. Cohen, B. Vellambi, and M. Hutter.
• A strongly asymptotically optimal agent in general environments. IJCAI, MK Cohen, E Catt, M Hutter.
• Who Should We Fear More: Biohackers, Disgruntled Postdocs, or Bad Governments? A Simple Risk Chain Model of Biorisk
• Assessing the Risks Posed by the Convergence of Artificial Intelligence and Biotechnology
• The 2019 Global Health Security Index (GHSI) and its implications for New Zealand and Pacific regional health security
• Bioengineering horizon scan 2020
• A solution scan of societal options to reduce SARS-CoV-2 transmission and spread.
• JCNSS – Written evidence submitted by Gregory Lewis
• Working paper: Proposal for a new UK National Institute for Biological Security (Cassidy Nelson and Gregory Lewis)
• Pandemics are not the only thing keeping biosecurity experts up at night (Toby Ord and Gregory Lewis | The Times)
• Validation analysis of Global Health Security Index (GHSI) scores 2019 (Boyd, Wilson and Nelson)
• Inferring the effectiveness of government interventions against COVID-19 (Jan M. Brauner, Sören Mindermann, Mrinank Sharma, et al.)
• Death and Anti-Death (Bostrom, N., Ettinger, R. C. W., & Tandy, C. (2004. Volume 2: Two Hundred Years After Kant, Fifty Years After Turing.)
• Long-Term Trajectories of Human Civilization (Seth D. Baum, Stuart Armstrong, Robin Hanson, Matthijs M. Maas, Anders Sandberg, et al., 2019)
• Generalizing from a few environments in safety-critical reinforcement learning. Zachary Kenton, Angelos Filos, Yarin Gal, Owain Evans. (SafeML ICLR 2019 Workshop)
• How useful is quantilization for mitigating specification-gaming? Ryan Carey. (SafeML ICLR 2019 Workshop)
• Reframing Superintelligence: Comprehensive AI Services as General Intelligence. Technical Report #2019-1. K. Eric Drexler
• An upper bound for the background rate of human extinction (Andrew E. Snyder-Beattie, Toby Ord & Michael B. Bonsall; Scientific Reports, 2019)
• Engineered pathogens: the opportunities, risks and challenges (Cassidy Nelson, Synthetic Biology, June 2019)
• Bridging Health and Security Sectors to Address High-Consequence Biological Risks (Cassidy Nelson, co-author with Michelle Nalabandian of NTI)
• UK Government’s approach to emerging infectious diseases and bioweapons (Dr Cassidy Nelson, Prof. Mike Bonsall, et al.)
• Black Hole Entropy is Thermodynamic Entropy (Carina E. A. Prunkl and Christopher G. Timpson)
• Risks from Learned Optimization in Advanced Machine Learning Systems (Evan Hubinger, Chris van Merwijk et al.; arXiv:1906.01820)
• (When) Is Truth-telling favored in AI Debate? (Vojtech Kovarik, Ryan Carey; SafeAI@AAAI)
• Sensory Optimization: Neural Networks as a Model for Understanding and Creating Art (Owain Evans; arXiv:1911.07068 )
• The Vulnerable World Hypothesis
• US Public Opinion on the Governance of Artificial Intelligence (Zhang, B. & Dafoe, A.). In Proceedings of the AAAI/ACM Conference on AI, Ethics, and Society (pp. 187-193)
• The Offense-Defense Balance of Scientific Knowledge: Does Publishing AI Research Reduce Misuse? (Shevlane, T. & Dafoe, A.) In Proceedings of the AAAI/ACM Conference on AI, Ethics, and Society (pp. 173-179)
• Global Politics and the Governance of Artificial Intelligence (Dafoe, A.). Journal of International Affairs, 72(1), 121-126.
• Artificial intelligence: American attitudes and trends (Zhang, B. & Dafoe, A.). Available at SSRN 3312874.
• Space races: settling the universe fast. (Sandberg, A. 2018. Technical Report #2018-01. Future of Humanity Institute. University of Oxford)
• The Malicious Use of Artificial Intelligence: Forecasting, Prevention, and Mitigation (Brundage, M., Avin, S. & Clark, J. et al., 2018)
• Deciphering China’s AI Dream (Jeffrey Ding, 2018, Future of Humanity Institute, University of Oxford)
• Active Reinforcement Learning with Monte-Carlo Tree Search (Evans O., Schulze S., arXiv:1803.04926v3, 2018)
• Predicting Human Deliberative Judgments with Machine Learning. (Evans O, Stuhlmüller A, Cundy C, Carey R, Kenton Z, McGrath T & Schreiber A, 2018)
• Occam’s razor is insufficient to infer the preferences of irrational agents (Armstrong S, Mindermann S, 2018)
• Information Hazards in Biotechnology (Gregory Lewis, Piers Millett, Anders Sandberg, Andrew Snyder-Beattie and Gigi Gronvall; first published online 2018; Risk Analysis, Vol. 39, No. 5, 2019)
• Incorrigibility in the CIRL Framework (Ryan Carey; Proceedings of AI, Ethics and Society)
• Accounting for the neglected dimensions of AI progress. (Martínez-Plumed, F., Avin, S., Brundage, M., Dafoe, A., hÉigeartaigh, S. Ó. & Hernández-Orallo, J.) arXiv preprint arXiv:1806.00610
• Dissolving the Fermi Paradox (Anders Sandberg, Eric Drexler, Toby Ord; 2018) arXiv:1806.02404
• Why Maximize Expected Choice‐Worthiness? (William MacAskill & Toby Ord; 2018)
• Symmetric Decomposition of Asymmetric Games (Karl Tuyls, Julien Pérolat, Marc Lanctot, Georg Ostrovski, Rahul Savani, Joel Z Leibo, Toby Ord, Thore Graepel & Shane Legg; 2018)
• Agent-Agnostic Human-in-the-Loop Reinforcement Learning. (Evans, O., Abel, D., Stuhlmüller A., Salvatier J. 2017.  arXiv preprint: arXiv:1701.04079)
• Generalised Discount Functions applied to a Monte-Carlo AIμ Implementation. (Lamont, S., Aslanides, J., Leike, J., Hutter, M. (2017). arXiv preprint arXiv:103.01358v1)
• Existential Risks: Diplomacy and Governance. (Farquhar, S., Halstead, J., Cotton-Barratt, O., Schubert, S., Belfield, H., Snyder-Beattie, A. (2017).)
• Universal Reinforcement Learning Algorithms: Survey and Experiments. (Aslanides, J., Leike, J., Hutter, M. (2017). arXiv:1705.10557v1)
• That is not dead which can eternal lie: the aestivation hypothesis for resolving Fermi’s paradox. (Sandberg, A., Armstrong, S., Ćirković, M. (2017). arXiv:1705.03394v1)
• When Will AI Exceed Human Performance? Evidence from AI Experts. (Grace, K., Salvatier, J., Dafoe, A., Zhang, B., Evans, O. (2017). arXiv:1705.08807v2)
• Trial without Error: Towards Safe Reinforcement Learning via Human Intervention. (Saunders, W., Sastry, G., Stuhlmüller, A., Evans, O. (2017). arXiv:1707.05173v1)
• Human Agency and Global Catastrophic Biorisks. (Millett, P., Snyder-Beattie, A. 2017. Health Security Volume 15, Number 4. DOI: 10.1089/hs.2017.0044)
• Pricing Externalities to Balance Public Risks and Benefits of Research. (Farquhar, S., Cotton-Barratt, O., Snyder-Beattie, A. 2017. Health Security. DOI: 10.1089/hs.2016.0118)
• Existential Risk and Cost-Effective Biosecurity. (Millett, P., Snyder-Beattie, A. 2017. Health Security. DOI: 10.1089/hs.2017.0028)
• A Brief Survey of Deep Reinforcement Learning. (Arulkumaran, K., Deisenroth,M., Brundage, M., Bharath, A. 2017. arXiv:1708.05866)
• Anthropic decision theory for self-locating beliefs. (Armstrong, S. 2017. Technical Report #2017-1. Future of Humanity Institute, University of Oxford.)
• Strategic Implications of Openness in AI Development (Bostrom, N. 2017. Global Policy. 10.1111/1758-5899.12403)
• Modeling the social dynamics of moral enhancement: social strategies sold over-the-counter and the stability of society (Joao Fabiano and Anders Sandberg)
• Moral Uncertainty about Population Axiology (Hilary Greaves & Toby Ord; 2017)
• Learning the preferences of ignorant, inconsistent agents. (Evans, O., Stuhlmüller, A., & Goodman, N. 2016. Proceedings of the Thirtieth AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence)
• The unilateralist’s curse: The case for a principle of conformity. (Bostrom, N., Douglas, T. & Sandberg, A. 2016. Social Epistemology, 30(4), 350-371)
• Racing to the precipice: a model of artificial intelligence development. (Armstrong, S., Bostrom, N., & Shulman, C. 2016. AI & Society, 1-6)
• Müller, V. & Bostrom, N. (2016). Future progress in artificial intelligence: A survey of expert opinion. In Fundamental Issues of Artificial Intelligence (pp. 553-571). Berlin: Springer.
• Beyond risk-benefit analysis: pricing externalities for dual use research of concern. (Cotton-Barratt, O., Farquhar, S. & Snyder-Beattie, A. 2016.)
• Underprotection of unpredictable statistical lives compared to predictable ones. (Lipsitch, M., Evans, N, & Cotton-Barratt, O. (2016). Risk Analysis.)
• Strategic Implications of Openness in AI Development (Bostrom, N. 2016. (Technical Report #2016-1). Future of Humanity Institute, University of Oxford)
• Exploration potential. (Leike, J. 2016. arXiv preprint: arXiv:1609.04994)
• Safely interruptible agents. (Orseau, L. & Armstrong, S. (2016). Proceedings of the Thirty-Second Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence Conference.)
• Thompson sampling is asymptotically optimal in general environments. (Leike, J., Lattimore, T., Orseau, L. & Hutter, M. (2016). Proceedings of the Thirty-Second Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence Conference)
• A formal solution to the grain of truth problem. Proceedings of the Thirty-Second Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence Conference. (Leike, J., Taylor, J., Fallenstein, B. (2016).)
• Policy Desiderata in the Development of Machine Superintelligence. (Bostrom, N., Dafoe, A., Flynn, C. (2016). Future of Humanity Institute, University of Oxford.)
• 2016 | Energetics of the Brain and AI. (Sandberg A. 2016. Sapience Project)
• Cheating Death in Damascus. (Levinstein, B. A., Soares, N. 2016)
• A Pragmatist’s Guide to Epistemic Utility. (Levinstein, B. A. 2016)
• Imprecise Epistemic Values and Imprecise Credences. (Levinstein, B. A. 2016.)
• A General, Synthetic Model for Predicting Biodiversity Gradients from Environmental Geometry (Gross, K., Snyder-Beattie, A. 2016. The American Naturalist 188, no. 4: E85-E97.)
• Long-term strategies for ending existential risk from fast takeoff. (Dewey, D. 2016. In Taylor & Francis special volume ‘Risks of AI’.)
• Armstrong, S. (2015). Off-policy Monte Carlo agents with variable behaviour policies.
• Moral Trade. (Ord, T. 2015. Ethics, 126, 118-138)
• Corrigibility. (Soares, N., Fallenstein, B., Armstrong, S., & Yudkowsky, E. 2015. In Workshops at the Twenty-Ninth AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence)
• Learning the preferences of bounded agents. (Evans, O., Stuhlmüller A., Goodman N. 2015. Proceedings from NIPS 2015 Workshop on Bounded Optimality)
• Motivated Value Selection for Artificial Agents. (Armstrong, S. 2015. In Workshops at the Twenty-Ninth AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence)
• How we’re predicting AI or failing to. (Armstrong, S., & Sotala, K. 2015. In Beyond Artificial Intelligence (pp. 11-29). Springer International Publishing)
• How much could refuges help us recover from a global catastrophe? (Beckstead, N. 2015. Futures, 72, 36-44)
• Industrial Renewal in the 21st Century: Evidence from US Cities. (Berger, T., & Frey, C. B. 2015. Regional Studies, 1-10)
• Gross, K., & Snyder-Beattie, A. (2015). Core mathematics to support new theory for distributions of biological diversity along environmental gradients.
• Permissive Rationality and Sensitivity. (Levinstein, B. A. 2015. Philosophy and Phenomenological Research)
• With All Due Respect: The Macro-Epistemology of Disagreement. (Levinstein, B. A. 2015. Philosopher’s Imprint, 17(13))
• La voiture autonome et ses implications morales. (Sandberg, A., Bradshaw-Martin, H., & Gérardin-Laverge, M. 2015. Multitudes, (1), 62-68.)
• Bubbles under the wallpaper: healthcare rationing and discrimination. (Ord, T., Beckstead, N. (2015). In Bioethics: an anthology 3rd edition. Oxford: Blackwell.)
• 2015 | Taking superintelligence seriously. (Brundage, M. (2015). Futures, 72, 32-35.)
• 2015 | MDL Intelligence Distillation: Exploring strategies for safe access to superintelligent problem-solving capabilities. (Drexler, K.E. 2015. Technical Report #2015-3. Future of Humanity Institute, University of Oxford.)
• A new counterexample to prioritarianism. (Ord, T. (2015). Utilitas, 27, 298–302)
• Bayesian Computational Models for Inferring Preferences. PhD Thesis. (Evans, O. (2015). Available on request.)
• Existential Risk and Existential Hope: Definitions (Cotton-Barratt, O. & Ord, T. 2015. Technical Report #2015-1. Future of Humanity Institute, University of Oxford.)
• Systemic Risk of Modelling in Insurance: Did your model tell you all models are wrong? (Snyder-Beattie, A., et al. 2015. Systemic Risk of Modelling Working Party, Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford)
• Allocating risk mitigation across time. (Cotton-Barratt, O. 2015. Technical Report #2015-2. Future of Humanity Institute, University of Oxford & Global Priorities Project.)
• Superintelligence: Paths, dangers, strategies. (Bostrom, N. 2014. Oxford University Press.)
• Unprecedented technological risks. (Beckstead, N., Bostrom, N., Bowerman, N., Cotton-Barratt, O., MacAskill, W., Ó hÉigeartaigh, S., & Ord, T. 2014. Future of Humanity Institute)
• Smarter than us: The rise of machine intelligence. (Armstrong, S. 2014. MIRI)
• Who Knows Anything about Anything about AI? (Armstrong, S., & ÓhÉigeartaigh, S. 2014. In Intelligence unbound: The future of uploaded and machine minds (pp. 46-60). Wiley)
• The errors, insights and lessons of famous AI predictions and what they mean for the future. (Armstrong, S., Sotala, K., & Ó hÉigeartaigh, S. S. 2014. Journal of Experimental & Theoretical Artificial Intelligence, 26(3), 317-342)
• Technology Shocks and Urban Evolutions: Did the Computer Revolution Shift the Fortunes of US Cities. (Berger, T., & Frey, C. B. 2014. In Oxford Martin School Working Paper)
• Bostrom, N. (2014). Hail Mary, Value Porosity, and Utility Diversification.
• Bostrom, N., & Yudkowsky, E. (2014). The ethics of artificial intelligence. In The Cambridge Handbook of Artificial Intelligence (pp. 316-334). Cambridge University Press.
• Dewey, D. (2014, March). Reinforcement learning and the reward engineering principle. In 2014 AAAI Spring Symposium Series.
• Massimi, M. (2014). Philosophy and the Sciences for Everyone. Routledge.
• Why we need friendly AI. (Muehlhauser, L., & Bostrom, N. 2014. Think, 13(36), 41-47)
• Müller, V. C. (2014). Risks of general artificial intelligence. Journal of Experimental & Theoretical Artificial Intelligence, 26(3), 297-301.
• Making fair choices on the path to universal health coverage (Norheim, O., et al. 2014. Final report of the WHO consultative group on equity and universal health coverage. World Health Organization)
• Ord, T. (2014). Overpopulation or underpopulation. In Is the planet full (pp. 46-60). Oxford University Press.
• Drones, counterfactuals, and equilibria: Challenges in evaluating new military technologies. (Ord, T. 2014)
• Global poverty and the demands of morality. (Ord, T. 2014. In Perry, J. (Ed.), God, the Good, and Utilitarianism: Perspectives on Peter Singer (pp. 177-191). Cambridge University Press)
• How 21st-century cities can avoid the fate of 20th-century Detroit. (Frey, C. 2014. Scientific American, 22.)
• Technological change and new work. (Frey, C. & Osborne, M. 2014. Policy Network)
• Monte Carlo model of brain emulation development. (Sandberg, A. (2014). (Working Paper #2014-1). Future of Humanity Institute & Oxford Martin Programme on the Impacts of Future Technology Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford)
• Additively efficient universal computers. (Dewey, D. (2014). Proceedings from the Conference on Unconventional Computation and Natural Computation 2015)
• Managing existential risk from emerging technology. (Beckstead, N. & Ord, T. 2014. In M. Walport (Ed.), Managing risk not avoiding it: Key themes and policy options, Annual report of the Government Chief Scientific Adviser. London: Government Office for Science)
• 2014 | Is Brain Emulation Dangerous? (Eckersley, P. &  Sandberg, A. (2014). Journal of Artificial General Intelligence, 4(3), pp. 170-194.)
• 2014 | Embryo Selection for Cognitive Enhancement: Curiosity or Game-changer? (Shulman, C. Bostrom, N., Global Policy 5, no. 1, 85-92)
• Existential risk prevention as global priority. (Bostrom, N. 2013. Global Policy, 4(1), 15-31)
• The future of employment: how susceptible are jobs to computerisation. (Frey, C. B., & Osborne, M. A. 2013)
• General purpose intelligence: arguing the orthogonality thesis. (Armstrong, S. 2013. Analysis and Metaphysics, 12, 68)
• More, M., & Vita-More, N. (Eds.). (2013). The transhumanist reader: Classical and contemporary essays on the science, technology, and philosophy of the human future. John Wiley & Sons.
• Rena tankar utan kött och känslor (Sandberg, A. 2013. Axess #5)
• Risks and mitigation strategies for oracle AI. (Armstrong, S. 2013. In V. Müller (Ed.), Philosophy and theory of artificial intelligence. (pp. 335-347))
• 2013 | Anthropic decision theory for self-locating beliefs. (Armstrong, S. (2013). Journal of Philosophy.)
• The autopilot problem. (Armstrong, S., Bradshaw, H., Beckstead, N., Sandberg, A. (2013). In Systemic Risks of Modelling. Defining Systemic Risk)
• Biased error search as a risk of modelling in insurance. (Beckstead, N., Armstrong, S., Sandberg, A. (2013). In Systemic Risks of Modelling.)
• 2013 | The Moral Imperative toward Cost-Effectiveness in Global Health. (Ord, T. (2013). Centre for Global Development.)
• 2013 | Infectious disease, injury, and reproductive health. (Jamison, D., Jha, P., Laxminarayan, R., & Ord, T. (2013). In B. Lomborg (ed.) Global Problems, Smart Solutions: Costs and Benefits (pp. 390–426). Cambridge University Press.)
• 2013 | Rationing and rationality: the cost of avoiding discrimination. (Beckstead, N. & Ord, T. (2013). In N Eyal, et al. (eds.) Inequalities in Health: Concepts, measures, and ethics (pp. 232-239). Oxford University Press.)
• Armstrong, S. (2012). Anthropics: why Probability isn’t enough (Technical Report #2012-2), Future of Humanity Institute, University of Oxford.
• Nash equilibrium of identical agents facing the Unilateralist’’s Curse. (Armstrong, S. 2012)
• Thinking inside the box: Controlling and using an oracle ai. (Armstrong, S., Sandberg, A., & Bostrom, N. 2012. Minds and Machines, 22(4), 299-324)
• The superintelligent will: Motivation and instrumental rationality in advanced artificial agents. (Bostrom, N. 2012. Minds and Machines, 22(2), 71-85)
• Dewey, D. (2012). A representation theorem for decisions about causal models. In Artificial General Intelligence (pp. 60-68). Springer Berlin Heidelberg.
• Gomila, A., & Müller, V. C. (2012). Challenges for artificial cognitive systems.
• Autonomous cognitive systems in real-world environments: Less control, more flexibility and better interaction. (Müller, V. C. 2012. Cognitive Computation, 4(3), 212-215)
• Theory and philosophy of AI. (Müller, V. C. 2012 (Minds and Machines, 22/2-Special volume))
• Revisiting Turing and His Test: Comprehensiveness, Qualia, and the Real World. (Müller, V. C., & Ayesh, A. 2012)
• How hard is artificial intelligence? Evolutionary arguments and selection effects. (Shulman, C., & Bostrom, N. 2012. Journal of Consciousness Studies, 19(7-8), 103-130)
• 2012 | How we’re predicting AI or failing to. (Armstrong, S., Sotala, K. (2012). Proceedings from Beyond AI Conference.)
• 2012 | Considering cost-effectiveness: the moral perspective. (Ord, T. 2012. In A. Glassman and K. Chalkidou (eds.) Priority setting in health: building institutions for smarter public spending (pp. 15–19). Washington DC: The Centre for Global Development.)
• Information hazards: A typology of potential harms from knowledge. (Bostrom, N. 2011. Review of Contemporary Philosophy, 10, 44)
• Bostrom, N., & Kulczycki, M. (2011). A patch for the simulation argument. Analysis, 71(1), 54-61.
• Machine Intelligence Survey (Sandberg, A. & Bostrom, N. 2011 , (Technical Report #2011-1). Future of Humanity Institute, University of Oxford)
• Infinite ethics. (Bostrom, N. 2011. Analysis and Metaphysics, 10, 9-59)
• Probing the improbable: methodological challenges for risks with low probabilities and high stakes. (Ord, T., Hillerbrand, R., & Sandberg, A. 2010. Journal of Risk Research, 13(2), 191-205)
• Armstrong, S. (2010). Einstein connections and involutions via parabolic geometries. Journal of Geometry and Physics, 60(10), 1424-1440.
• Cirkovic, M. M., Sandberg, A., & Bostrom, N. (2010). Anthropic shadow: Observation selection effects and human extinction risks. Risk analysis, 30(10), 1495-1506.
• 2010 | The Future of Humanity. (Bostrom, N. (2010). In J.-K. B. Olsen, S. A. Pedersen & V. F. Hendricks (Eds.), Companion to philosophy of technology, pp. 551-558. Wiley-Blackwell.)
• 2010 | Utility indifference. (Armstrong, S. (2010). (Technical Report #2010-1). Future of Humanity Institute, University of Oxford.)
• Learning Structured Preferences. (Evans, O., Bergen, L. & Tenenbaum, J.B. (2010). Proceedings of the Thirty-Second Annual Conference of the Cognitive Science Society)
• Bostrom, N., & Savulescu, J. (Eds.). (2009). Human enhancement (pp. 131-154). Oxford: Oxford University Press.
• Bostrom, N. (2009). The future of humanity (pp. 186-215). Palgrave Macmillan UK.
• Bostrom, N. (2009). The simulation argument: Some explanations. Analysis, anp063.
• Cognitive enhancement: methods, ethics, regulatory challenges. (Bostrom, N., & Sandberg, A. 2009. Science and engineering ethics, 15(3), 311-341)
• Cognitive enhancement: Methods, ethics, regulatory challenges. (Bostrom, N., & Sandberg, A. 2009. Science and engineering ethics, 15(3), 311-341.)
• Bostrom, N., & Savulescu, J. (2009). Human enhancement ethics: The state of the debate.
• Brockman, M. (2009). What’s Next?: Dispatches on the Future of Science. Vintage.
• Hanson, R. (2009). Enhancing our truth orientation. Human Enhancement, 357-372.
• On market maker functions. (Hanson, R. 2009. The Journal of Prediction Markets, 3(1), 61)
• A manipulator can aid prediction market accuracy. (Hanson, R., & Oprea, R. 2009. Economica, 76(302), 304-314)
• An experimental test of combinatorial information markets. (Ledyard, J., Hanson, R., & Ishikida, T. 2009. Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 69(2), 182-189)
• Olsen, J. K. B., Pedersen, S. A., & Hendricks, V. F. (2012). A Companion to the Philosophy of Technology. John Wiley & Sons.
• Rorschach, Ozymandias, and Dr. Manhattan. Can good, but uncertain ends justify any means? (Hillerbrand, R., & Sandberg, A. 2009. In B. Dyer (Ed.), The Philosophy of supervillains. Chicago, IL: Open Court)
• Brain Boosters. (Sandberg, A. & Bostrom, N. 2009. In P. Healey (Ed.) Unnatural Selection: The Challenges of Engineering Tomorrow’s People)
• Invited chapter for the Institute for ethics and emerging technologies. (Bostrom, N. (2009). Riccardo Campa, Nick Bostrom, James Hughes (sociologist), techno-progressivism, science and technology … change, public policy, humanity, academia. Alphascript Publishing)
• 2009 | Pascal’s mugging. (Bostrom, N. (2009). Analysis, 69(3), 443-445.)
• Help or hinder: Bayesian models of social goal inference. (Ullman, T.D., Baker, C.L., Macindoe, O., Evans, O., Goodman, N.D., & Tenenbaum, J.B. (2009). Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems, 22, 1874-1882)
• The promise of prediction markets. (Arrow, K., et al. 2008. Science, 320(5878), 877)
• Bostrom, N. (2008). Drugs can be used to treat more than disease. Nature, 451(7178), 520.
• Bostrom, N. (2008). Moralist, meet scientist. Nature, 453(7195), 593-594.
• Bostrom, N. (2008). Where are they? Why I hope the search for extraterrestrial life finds nothing. Technology Review, 72-78.
• Bostrom, N. (2008). Why I want to be a posthuman when I grow up. In Medical enhancement and posthumanity (pp. 107-136). Springer Netherlands.
• Global catastrophic risks. (Bostrom, N., & Cirkovic, M. M. 2008. Oxford University Press)
• Bostrom, N., & Sandberg, A. (2008). The wisdom of nature: an evolutionary heuristic for human enhancement. Human enhancement, 375-416.
• Broderick, D. (2008). Year million: Science at the far edge of knowledge. Atlas and Company.
• Making sense of medical paternalism. (Hanson, R. 2008. Medical hypotheses, 70(5), 910-913)
• Unnatural selection: the challenges of engineering tomorrow’s people. (Healey, P., & Rayner, S. (Eds.). 2008. Earthscan)
• Becoming More Than Human: Technology and the Post-Human Condition. (Marsen, S. 2008. Technology, 19, 1)
• Ravelingien, A., & Sandberg, A. (2008). Sleep better than medicine? Ethical issues related to “wake enhancement”. Journal of medical ethics, 34(9), e9-e9.
• How can we reduce the risk of human extinction. (Sandberg, A., Matheny, J., & Cirkovic, M. 2008. Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 9)
• Human Dignity And Bioethics: Essays Commissioned by the President’s Council On Bioethics. (Schulman, A. (2008). Government Printing Office)
• Record of the Workshop on Policy Foresight and Global Catastrophic Risk. (Tickell, C., et al. 2008. James Martin Institute for science and civilisation, University of Oxford)
• Structure of the global catastrophe. Risks of human extinction in the XXI century. (Turchin, A. 2008. Lulu. com)
• Reshaping the human condition: Exploring human enhancement. (Zonneveld, L., Dijstelbloem, H., & Ringoir, D. (2008). Rathenau Institute)
• The dread planet: Why finding fossils on Mars would be extremely bad news for humanity (Bostrom, N. 2008. The Boston Globe.)
• Dignity and enhancement. (Bostrom, N. (2008).  In human dignity and bioethics: Essays commissioned by the president’s council on bioethics, (pp. 173-207). Washington, D.C.: President’s Council on Bioethics)
• How to enhance human beings. (Bostrom, N. 2008. In M. Brockman (Ed.), What’s Next? Dispatches on the Future of Science: Original Essays from a New Generation of Scientists.Random House.)
• Economics of brain emulation. (Hanson, R. 2008. Proceedings from Unnatural Selection : The Challenges of Engineering Tomorrow’s People. London.)
• Parenthetical word. (Bostrom, N. 2008. In I. V. Sledzevsky and V. Prajd, Alexei Turchin’s structure of the global catastrophe: Risks of human extinction in the XXI century, a series: Dialogues about the future, Vol 2 (pp. 22).)
• Whole Brain Emulation: A Roadmap (Sandberg, A. & Bostrom, N. (2008). (Technical Report #2008‐3), Future of Humanity Institute, University of Oxford)
• Global Catastrophic Risks Survey (Sandberg, A. & Bostrom, N. (2008). (Technical Report #2008-1), Future of Humanity Institute, University of Oxford)
• 2008 | Letter from utopia. (Bostrom, N. (2008). Studies in Ethics, Law, and Technology, 2(1), 1-7.)
• 2008 | Everything. (Bostrom, N. (2008). In J. Brockman (Ed.), What have you changed your mind about?: Today’s leading minds rethink everything (pp. 61-63). New York: Harper Perennial.)
• 2008 | Foreword. (Bostrom, N. (2008). In R. Baron (Ed.), Axiological anthropology and the promotion of mental health. London, UK: Educational Trust for Health Improvement Through Cognitive Strategies.)
• 2008 | Response to Open Peer Commentaries on “The Scourge: Moral Implications of Natural Embryo Loss”. (Ord, T. (2008). . American Journal of Bioethics, 8(7).)
• Nanoethics: the ethical and social implications of nanotechnology. (Allhoff, F. 2007. John Wiley & Sons)
• Sleeping Beauty and self-location: A hybrid model. (Bostrom, N. 2007. Synthese, 157(1), 59-78)
• Technological revolutions: ethics and policy in the dark. (Bostrom, N. 2007. Nanoscale: Issues and perspectives for the nano century, 129-152)
• Bostrom, N. (2007) In defence of posthuman dignity. In Chadwick, R. (Ed.) The bioethics reader: editors’ choice.
• Chakraborty, S., Sandberg, A., & Greenfield, S. A. (2007). Differential dynamics of transient neuronal assemblies in visual compared to auditory cortex. Experimental brain research, 182(4), 491-498.
• Insider trading and prediction markets. (Hanson, R. 2007. JL Econ. & Pol’y, 4, 449)
• The Hanson-Hughes debate on ‘the crack of a future dawn. (Hanson, R. 2007.’ Journal of Evolution and Technology, 16(1), 99-126)
• The policy analysis market (a thwarted experiment in the use of prediction markets for public policy) (Hanson, R. 2007. Innovations, 2(3), 73-88)
• Hanson, R. (2007). Catastrophe, social collapse, and human extinction. Global catastrophic risks, 1, 357.
• Showing that you care: The evolution of health altruism. (Hanson, R. 2007. Medical hypotheses, 70(4), 724-742)
• New waves in applied ethics. (Ryberg, J., Petersen, T. S., & Wolf, C. 2007)
• Three big problems. (Bostrom, N. 2007. In C. Tandy (Ed.), Death and anti-death, volume 5: Thirty years after Loren Eiseley (1907-1977) (pp. 147-165). Palo Alto, CA: Ria University Press.)
• Technological revolutions and the problem of prediction. (Bostrom, N. 2007. In P. Lin, J. Moor, J. Weckert & F. Allhoff (Eds.), Nanoethics: The ethical and social implications of nanotechnology pp.101-118. Wiley Interscience.)
• Ethical principles in the creation of artificial minds. (Bostrom, N. 2007. In Analysis and metaphysics. (Vol. 6 pp. 141-143).)
• Smart policy: Cognitive enhancement and the public interest. (Bostrom, N. 2007. In L. Zonneveld, H. Dijstelbloem & D. Ringoir (Eds.), Reshaping the human condition: exploring human enhancement. (pp. 29-37). Veenman Drukkers, Rotterdam, Netherlands: Rathenau Institute)
• Biotechnology and the promise of tailor-made medicine. (Sandberg, A. (2007). In F. Ficai (Ed.), Unlocking ideas: Essays from the Amigo Society (pp. 61-67). London, UK: Stockholm Network)
• Definitions of enhancement, review of cognitive enhancement technologies, review of ethical topics in cognitive enhancement. (Sandberg, A. 2007. Reports from ENHANCE Project)
• Cognitive enhancement: Can we afford to ban It? (Sandberg, A. 2007. Proceedings from Enhancement and Genetics Conference. University of Jena, Germany)
• Transhumanist valuing. (Bostrom, N. 2007. Hastings Center Report, Vol: September/October)
• Three big problems. (Bostrom, N. & Roache, R. 2007. In C. Tandy (Ed.), Death and anti death (pp. 147-165). Palo Alto, CA: Ria University Press.)
• Ethical and political challenges to the prospect of life extension. (Bostrom, N. 2007. Invited article for World Demographics Association Proceedings)
• 2007 | Human vs. posthuman. (Bostrom, N. (2007). Hastings Center Report, 37(5).)
• 2007 | Observation selection theory and cosmological fine-tuning. (Bostrom, N. (2007). In B. Carr (Ed.) Universe or Multiverse? Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.)
• Ethical and political challenges to the prospect of life extension. (Bostrom, N. (2007). Proceedings from World Demographics Association Proceedings 2006)
• Ethical principles in the creation of artificial minds. (Bostrom, N. (2007). Linguistic and Philosophical Investigations, 6, pp. 183-184)
• Technological revolutions: Ethics and policy in the dark. (Bostrom, N. (2007). In J. Savulescu (Ed.), Ethics of east and west: How they contribute to the quest for wisdom. Oxford, UK: Oxford Uehiro Center for Practical Ethics)
• In the great silence there is great hope. (Bostrom, N. (2007). MIT Technology Review, (May/June), 72-77)
• Bostrom, N., & Ord, T. (2006). The Reversal Test: Eliminating Status Quo Bias in Applied Ethics. Ethics, 116(4), 656-679.
• Bostrom, N. (2006). A short history of transhumanist thought. Analysis and Metaphysics, 5(1-2), 63-95.
• Bostrom, N. (2006). Quantity of experience: brain-duplication and degrees of consciousness. Minds and Machines, 16(2), 185-200.
• Bostrom, N. (2006). What is a singleton. Linguistic and Philosophical Investigations, 5(2), 48-54.
• Hahn, R. W., & Tetlock, P. C. (2006). Information markets: A new way of making decisions. Reg-Markets Books and Monographs, 06-03.
• Decision markets for policy advice. Promoting the general welfare. (Hanson, R. 2006. American democracy and the political economy of government performance, 151-173.)
• Hanson, R. (2006). Uncommon priors require origin disputes. Theory and decision, 61(4), 319-328.
• Five nanotech social scenarios. Nanotechnology (Hanson, R. 2006. Societal Implications—Individual Perspectives, 109)
• Hanson, R. D. (2006). Drift –diffusion in mangled worlds quantum mechanics. In Proceedings of the Royal Society of London A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 462(2069), 1619-1627.
• Information aggregation and manipulation in an experimental market. (Hanson, R., Oprea, R., & Porter, D. 2006. Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 60(4), 449-459)
• Miller, P., & Wilsdon, J. (2006). Better Humans? The politics of human enhancement and life extension.
• Converging cognitive enhancements. (Sandberg, A., & Bostrom, N. 2006. Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, 1093(1), 201-227)
• Den Hänsynsfulla Taggen [‘The considerate tag’]: On the impact of identification technology. (Sandberg, A. (2006). Eudoxa Policy Study #9, Eudoxa AB)
• Den forstaerkede hjerne. (Sandberg, A. 2006. In G. Balling & K. Lippert-Rasmussen (Eds.), Det menneskelige eksperiment (pp. 75-114). Museum Tusculanum Forlag, Denmark)
• Accept interdependence. (Hanson, R. 2006. Proceedings from Ci’num – The Digital Civilizations Forum 2006.)
• Do we live in a computer simulation? (Bostrom, N. 2006. New Scientist, 192(2579))
• 2006 | Nanoethics and technological revolutions: A précis. (Bostrom, N. (2006). Nanotechnology Perceptions: A Review of Ultraprecision Engineering and Nanotechnology, 2(1b, May Issue).)
• Growing up: Human nature and enhancement technologies. (Bostrom, N. (2006). In E. Mitchell (Ed.), Tomorrow’s people:  the challenge to human nature)
• 2006 | Desire, time, and ethical weight. (Bostrom, N. (2006). Analysis and Metaphysics, 4(2), 59-83.)
• Ethical issues in advanced artificial intelligence. (Bostrom, N. 2006. Review of Contemporary Philosophy, 5(1-2), 66-73.)
• 2006 | Dinosaurs, dodos, humans? (Bostrom, N. (2006). Global Agenda, the annual publication of the World Economic Forum, (January), 230-231.)
• How Unlikely is a Doomsday Catastrophe. (Bostrom, N., & Tegmark, M. 2005. Nature, 438(7069), 754)
• A history of transhumanist thought. (Bostrom, N. 2005. Journal of Evolution and Technology, 14(1), 1-25)
• In defense of posthuman dignity. (Bostrom, N. 2005. Bioethics, 19(3), 202-214)
• Recent developments in the ethics, science, and politics of life extension. (Bostrom, N. 2005. Ageing Horizons, 3(2005), 28-33)
• The fable of the dragon tyrant. (Bostrom, N. 2005. Journal of Medical Ethics, 31(5), 273-277)
• The simulation argument: Reply to Weatherson. (Bostrom, N. 2005. The Philosophical Quarterly, 55(218), 90-97)
• Why Make a Matrix? And Why You Might Be in One. (Bostrom, N. 2005. More Matrix and Philosophy: Revolutions and Reloaded Decoded., ed. William Irwin (Chicago: IL: Open Court Publishing Company, 2005))
• de Magalhaes, J. P., & Sandberg, A. (2005). Cognitive aging as an extension of brain development: A model linking learning, brain plasticity, and neurodegeneration. Mechanisms of ageing and development, 126(10), 1026-1033.
• Hanson, R. (2005). Fear of Death and Muddled Thinking – –It Is So Much Worse Than You Think.
• Hanson, R. D. (2005). Designing real terrorism futures. Public Choice, 128(1-2), 257-274.
• An autocatalytic model of STDP timing from slow calcium-dependent signals. (Sandberg, A., & Fransén, E. 2005. Neurocomputing, 65, 603-608)
• In defence of posthuman dignity. (Bostrom, N. 2005. In Bioethics. Vol. 19(3), pp. 202-214.)
• Transhumanist values. (Bostrom, N. 2005. In Review of contemporary philosophy. Vol. 4, No. 1-2, pp. 87-101)
• Understanding Quine’s thesis of indeterminacy. (Bostrom, N. 2005. Linguistic and philosophical investigations. Vol. 4, No. 1, pp. 60-96)
• The future of humankind: Heaven, hell, with stops along the way. (Bostrom, N. 2005. Review of Radical evolution: The promise and peril of enhancing our minds, our bodies – and what it means to be human by Joel Garreau, Scientific American)
• Tekniken befriar kroppen [‘Technology frees the body: the future of medical technology, the patient and health care’] (Sandberg, A., Sanchez A., Ingdahl, W. (2005). Health Consumer Powerhouse.)
• 2005 | Ethical principles in the creation of artificial minds. (Bostrom, N. (2005). Linguistic and Philosophical Investigations, 6.)
• 2005 | A short history of transhumanist thought. (Bostrom, N. (2005). In R. Ettinger (Ed.), The prospect of immortality, with comments by others. Palo Alto, CA: Ria University Press.)
• 2005 | Re: The benevolent dragon. (Bostrom, N. (2005). . Journal of Medical Ethics, 31(5), pp. 273.)
• Recent arguments about life-extension. (Bostrom, N. 2005. Aging Horizons, 3(Autumn/Winter), pp. 28-34)
• Scientist find death can damage your health. (Bostrom, N. (2005). Journal of Medical Ethics, 31(5), pp. 273)
• Transhumanism-The World’s Most Dangerous Idea? (Bostrom, N. 2004. Foreign Policy)
• Computational memory models. Sandberg, A. (2004. Lund University cognitive studies #116)
• Free will: What’s the transhumanist position? (Bostrom, N. (2004). BetterHumans.
• 2004 | The transhumanist FAQ v.2.1. (Bostrom, N. (2004). World Transhumanist Association.)
• Astronomical waste: The opportunity cost of delayed technological development. (Bostrom, N. 2003. Utilitas, 15(03), 308-314)
• Are you living in a computer simulation? (Bostrom, N. 2003. The Philosophical Quarterly, 53(211), 243-255)
• Ethical issues in advanced artificial intelligence. (Bostrom, N. 2003. Science Fiction and Philosophy: From Time Travel to Superintelligence, 277-284)
• Bostrom, N. (2003). Human genetic enhancements: a transhumanist perspective. The Journal of Value Inquiry, 37(4), 493-506.
• Bostrom, N. (2003). Taking intelligent machines seriously: reply to my critics. Futures, 35(8), 901-906.
• The mysteries of self-locating belief and anthropic reasoning. (Bostrom, N. 2003. The Harvard Review of Philosophy, 11(1), 59-73)
• Bostrom, N. (2003). Transhumanist Values, Ethical Issues for the 21st Century, ed. Frederick Adams.
• When machines outsmart humans. (Bostrom, N. 2003. Futures, 35(7), 759-764)
• Bostrom, N., & Cirkovic, M. M. (2003). The doomsday argument and the self-indication assumption: reply to Olum. The Philosophical Quarterly, 53(210), 83-91.
• Lansner, A., Fransén, E., & Sandberg, A. (2003). Cell assembly dynamics in detailed and abstract attractor models of cortical associative memory. Theory in Biosciences, 122(1), 19-36.
• A working memory model based on fast Hebbian learning. (Sandberg, A., Tegnér, J., & Lansner, A. 2003. Network: Computation in Neural Systems, 14(4), 789-802)
• Human extinction. (Bostrom, N. 2003. In P. Demeny & G. McNicoll (Eds.), Encyclopedia of population. New York: Macmillan)
• The simulation argument: Why the probability that you are living in the Matrix is quite high. (Bostrom, N. 2003. T Times higher educational supplement)
• Eudoxa policy study #2: On idea futures – making politicians put their money where their mouth is. (Sandberg, A. (2003). Eudoxa policy study #2: On idea futures – making politicians put their money where their mouth is, (tr. Lene Johansen). Eudoxa AB.)
• Anthropic bias: Observation selection effects in science and philosophy. (Bostrom, N. 2013. Routledge)
• Existential risks. (Bostrom, N. 2002. Journal of Evolution and Technology, 9(1), 1-31)
• Self-locating belief in big worlds: Cosmology’s missing link to observation. (Bostrom, N. 2002. The Journal of philosophy, 99(12), 607-623)
• Logarithmic market scoring rules for modular combinatorial information aggregation. (Hanson, R. D. 2002. George Mason University working paper: George Mason University.)
• Synaptic depression as an intrinsic driver of reinstatement dynamics in an attractor network. (Sandberg, A., & Lansner, A. 2002. Neurocomputing, 44, 615-622)
• A Bayesian attractor network with incremental learning. (Sandberg, A., Lansner, A., Petersson, K. M., & Ekeberg. 2002. Network: Computation in neural systems, 13(2), 179-194)
• “Som egenmäktiga gudar”: den svenska debatten om gen-och bioteknik på 1970-och 1980-talen. (Sandberg, A., Sanchez, A., & Ingdahl, W. 2002. Timbro)
• Kong Markatta II – en transhumanists erkendelser. (Sandberg, A. 2002. In G. Ballig, Homo sapiens 2.0 – Når teknologien kryber ind under huden. Gads Forlag, Denmark)
• The Doomsday Argument Adam & Eve, UN++, and Quantum Joe. (Bostrom, N. 2001. Synthese, 127(3), 359-387)
• The meta-Newcomb problem. (Bostrom, N. 2001. Analysis, 61(272), 309-310)
• Selective enhancement of recall through plasticity modulation in an autoassociative memory. (Sandberg, A., Lansner, A., & Petersson, K. M. 2001. Neurocomputing, 38, 867-873)
• Transhumanism – An idea whose time has come. (Bostrom, N. (2001). In Doctor Tandy’s first guide to life extension and transhumanity. Palo Alto, CA: Ria University Press)
• Cortical integration: How to store complex representations in long-term memory. (Bostrom, N. 2000)
• Observer-relative chances in anthropic reasoning? (Bostrom, N. 2000. Erkenntnis, 52(1), 93-108)
• Cirkovic, M. M., & Bostrom, N. (2000). Cosmological constant and the final anthropic hypothesis. Astrophysics and Space Science, 274(4), 675-687.
• A palimpsest memory based on an incremental Bayesian learning rule. (Sandberg, A., Lansner, A., Petersson, K. M., & Ekeberg, Ö. 2000. Neurocomputing, 32, 987-994)
• What is transhumanism? (Bostrom, N. 2000. Sawaal, August issue.)
• The doomsday argument is alive and kicking. (Bostrom, N. 1999. Mind, 108(431), 539-551)
• The physics of information processing superobjects: daily life among the Jupiter brains. (Sandberg, A. 1999. Journal of Evolution and Technology, 5(1), 1-34)
• Predictions from philosophy. (Bostrom, N. 1999. Coloquia Manilana (PDCIS). Vol. 7.)
• How long before superintelligence? (Bostrom, N. 1998. International Journal of Futures Studies, 2)

We need your support today

Independent journalism is more important than ever. Vox is here to explain this unprecedented election cycle and help you understand the larger stakes. We will break down where the candidates stand on major issues, from economic policy to immigration, foreign policy, criminal justice, and abortion. We’ll answer your biggest questions, and we’ll explain what matters — and why. This timely and essential task, however, is expensive to produce.

We rely on readers like you to fund our journalism. Will you support our work and become a Vox Member today?

• Future Perfect

Can a new approach to funding scientific research unlock innovation?

How we fund research is stifling creativity. Here’s one potential fix.

by Kelsey Piper

Ask a bunch of scientists what’s wrong with their field, as Vox did a few years ago , and one thing nearly all of them will name is the funding process. You might think that top scientists at top universities are paid by those universities for the research they do, but for the most part, you’d be wrong: Nearly all academic researchers in the sciences rely on outside grants in order to pay salaries, buy their equipment, and run their experiments.

Those grants end up powerfully shaping the academic sciences. By some estimates , many top researchers spend 50 percent of their time writing grants. Interdisciplinary research is less likely to get funding, meaning critical kinds of research don’t get done. And scientists argue that the constant fighting for funding undermines good work by encouraging researchers to overpromise and engage in questionable practices , overincentivizing publication in top journals , disincentivizing replications of existing work , and stifling creativity and intellectual risk-taking .

Sign up for the Future Perfect newsletter

Twice a week, we’ll send you a roundup of the best ideas and solutions for tackling the world’s biggest challenges — and how to get better at doing good. Sign up here .

A new biomedical research institute, called the Arc Institute , announced on Wednesday as a nonprofit in collaboration between Stanford, UC Berkeley, and UC San Francisco and funded by some of the biggest names in tech, is meant to address some of those problems — and show what could be a better way to fund science.

Arc is “an institutional experiment in how science is conducted and funded,” Patrick Collison, CEO of Stripe and one of the Institute’s funders, told me. Researchers get eight-year grants to do whatever they want, instead of three-year grants tied to a specific project.

The institute is also hiring for people who want to work on improving key biological research tools instead of on conducting experiments and writing papers. It’s an expensive approach that can, even at best, only solve the problems with our current system for a tiny fraction of the researchers affected by it. But its founders hope it can at least show that solutions are possible — and inspire further experimentation.

Arc, explained

The key idea behind Arc is that the current system for biomedical scientists has enabled a lot of great research. But there’s an overwhelming sentiment among scientists that some key work is falling through the cracks.

Top investigators “spend over half of our time fundraising. The rest of that time we’re shouldering serious managerial, operational, logistical things,” Patrick Hsu, an assistant professor of bioengineering at the University of California Berkeley and one of Arc’s founders, told me.

The system “doesn’t empirically seem to enable people to pursue what they themselves think is their best idea,” Collison said.

Last year, Collison was involved in funding a major scientific grantmaking endeavor called FastGrants — an effort to get money out to researchers doing critical work on Covid-19. With the funds, they sent a survey. One question included was “if you have the same amount of funding but you could use it however you want, and it was stable, would you change your research program,” Silvana Konermann, an assistant professor of biochemistry at Stanford and the new executive director of Arc, told me.

Eighty percent of the scientists who answered said they would change their research program substantially.

Arc is a bet on doing exactly that. The researchers it brings on as core investigators will get less restricted, eight-year grants. The idea is that they’ll spend less time fundraising and feel secure to switch course and focus on whatever they believe is most essential, giving them what Konermann said is the “flexibility and freedom to pursue the research they’re the most passionate about and take risks and take on projects that might fail.”

The institute is also hoping to better support those scientists with “technology development centers” that focus on inventing better tools and processes for biomedical research. It’s the kind of work that is essential to science but that doesn’t lead to academic papers and that is therefore not seen as a viable career path.

With the current system, “there aren’t long-term careers for the people doing it,” Hsu told me. “It should be possible to work for 20 years on refining some super-useful technology” — for cutting and pasting DNA, for example, or something similarly fundamental. Right now there aren’t good career options in the academic biosciences for people who want to work on slow, slight engineering improvements on a key problem. It’d be nice to change that.

Arc will operate out of Palo Alto, California, where Stanford is located, as an independent nonprofit collaborating with Stanford, Berkeley, and UCSF — all institutions with highly regarded biomedical programs.

It’ll be expensive — part of why no one has fixed biomedical science is that it isn’t cheap. The venture has funding commitments from — along with Patrick Collison (who is Konermann’s husband) and his brother and Stripe co-founder John Collison — cryptocurrency billionaire Vitalik Buterin, and Dustin Moskovitz and Cari Tuna (whose ambitious philanthropy crops up frequently here on Future Perfect), among others.

What’s missing from our scientific funding system

If you’re a tenured professor doing academic research in many scientific fields, you’ll be responsible for running a lab. That means you’ll need to hire graduate students and postdocs, as well as pay for equipment, supplies, and publication fees.

Universities pay a share of these expenses, but the bulk is expected to come from research grants. In the US, most of those grants come from the federal government : Biomedical research is funded by the National Institutes of Health (NIH), and much other research is funded by the National Science Foundation (NSF).

Grant applications tend to be long and complicated, and often require “preliminary work” on a project, which means a lab has to already commit significant resources toward it before they can even apply for future work on it to be paid for, Hsu told me.

And the number of grant applications to institutions like the NIH has been going up, while funding hasn’t necessarily kept pace, so grant rejection rates are sky-high. In the 1970s when the program got started, the share of NIH grant applications that are approved was about 35 to 40 percent — now it’s about 20 percent . That means most of the time and effort on writing grant applications is effectively wasted.

The process isn’t just time-consuming — it’s also stunningly capricious. One study found very little correlation between how a grant was scored in the NIH process for grant approvals and whether the research it produced was eventually cited.

Another study, looking at high-quality proposals, found there was virtually no agreement on their merits — two researchers might come to vastly different conclusions about whether the grant should be approved. Another analysis looked at successful grants and found that 59 percent of them could have been rejected due to random variability in scoring. Watching how NIH grants were reviewed was “very eye-opening for me,” Hsu told me — and not in a good way.

Then there’s the fact that grants tend to expire after a few years. As John Pooley, a neurobiology postdoc at the University of Bristol, told Vox , that inclines researchers toward tackling something that they can address in a few years. But some of the most important problems in medicine will take much longer to crack.

To be clear, a lot of incredible biomedical research is happening in academic laboratories today. The US leads the world in biomedicine, and key inventions like CRISPR happened in US laboratories. While the system certainly needs improvement, no one wants to lose what makes US biomedicine already lead the world.

“It’s not that the current model is really bad for everyone — I think the current model actually works really well for some people,” Konermann told me. “The hope is not that everything will be like Arc, but that each of these models will have their own downsides and their own upsides,” making for a “healthier overall ecosystem.”

Of course, even if there are flaws in the current system, Arc might not necessarily address them. For one thing, it’s really small and not an option for most biomedical researchers, no matter how much they’d like it. For another, Arc represents a bet on what conditions produce good science — and while their case for their bet is compelling, they could be wrong that giving scientists more flexibility and more autonomy actually produces the lifesaving cures we hope for from biomedicine.

Experimenting with our scientific process

A wide range of ideas have been aired for how to fix the scientific grant process, from lotteries to limiting applications to one page . There have been private attempts to do better — like FastGrants , which aimed to get out Covid-19 research money in 48 hours instead of weeks or months, and which has moved more than $50 million to date.

But one key thing, Collison emphasized to me, is simply having more options. There’s nothing wrong with the NIH grant process as one way that researchers can secure money for an idea. But when it’s the only way, any science that doesn’t fit neatly into the NIH process won’t get done at all.

Arc is one more option, but it will only be able to fund a few core investigators and a limited number of full-time careers working on developing new tools in its technology development centers.

That’s why Collison says one measure of Arc’s success — alongside the more obvious ones, like whether its researchers report that they’re able to focus on science, and whether they discover new things that make the world a better place — is whether “other funders, other institutions, other stakeholders in our prevailing systems, are compelled to themselves pursue other experiments and other models.” If Arc works, then that raises new questions — what else might work? What other potential is going untapped in the current system?

It’s an experiment that the beneficiaries of biomedical research — which is to say, everyone — ought to watch with interest.

Most Popular

• There’s a fix for AI-generated essays. Why aren’t we using it?
• Conservatives are shocked — shocked! — that Tucker Carlson is soft on Nazis
• Did Brittany Mahomes’s Donald Trump support put her on the outs with Taylor Swift?
• Has The Bachelorette finally gone too far?
• The hidden reason why your power bill is so high

Today, Explained

Understand the world with a daily explainer plus the most compelling stories of the day.

This is the title for the native ad

More in Future Perfect

Is anything really “cruelty-free”?

From granola bars to chips, more studies are revealing that UPFs are tied to diseases like cancer and depression.

Too much fluoride might lower IQ in kids, a new federal report says. The science (and debate), explained.

EVs help reduce greenhouse emissions. But too many used gas-guzzlers could make that impossible.

The US military’s recruiting crisis, explained.

Gavin Newsom could decide the future of AI safety. But will he cave to billionaire pressure?

Predicting the Future of Supply Chains: Learning from the Past to Navigate Uncertainty

Aug 21, 2024 —.

In a rapidly evolving global landscape, predicting the future of supply chains is akin to trying to catch lightning in a bottle. By examining past trends and disruptions, we can glean invaluable insights into what the future might hold and how to navigate it effectively. This article, drawing from Chris Gaffney 's extensive experience in the beverage industry, explores the inherent challenges of forecasting supply chain trends, reflects on past predictions that didn't pan out, and suggests proactive strategies to stay ahead of the curve.

Introduction

Predicting the future of supply chains has always been a challenging endeavor. As someone who has spent more than 25 years in the beverage industry, I’ve witnessed firsthand how even the most well thought out predictions can miss the mark. Yet, understanding where we went wrong in the past can equip us with the tools to better anticipate and adapt to future challenges.

In this article, I want to explore the complexities of forecasting in the supply chain realm, reflect on some past predictions that didn’t quite hit the target, and suggest actionable strategies that can help us navigate the uncertainties ahead.

The Challenge of Predicting Supply Chain Trends

The supply chain, particularly in the beverage industry, is a complex web of interdependencies. As we push for innovation—from new ingredients to advanced packaging—our supply chains often struggle to keep pace. Historically, the challenges of maintaining quality, managing costs, and ensuring timely delivery have been compounded by global disruptions, technological advancements, and evolving consumer expectations.

In the 1990s, for example, the advent of RFID technology was hailed as a gamechanger, promising unparalleled visibility and efficiency. While RFID has undoubtedly transformed many aspects of supply chain management, its adoption has been slower and less impactful than originally anticipated. Similarly, the introduction of Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) systems was expected to revolutionize the way businesses managed their operations. Yet, the promised seamless integration and real time data accuracy have often fallen short, leading to frustrations and costly implementations.

These examples highlight a critical lesson: while technological advancements hold great promise, their real-world application can be fraught with challenges that delay or dilute their impact.

Lessons from Past Predictions

One of the most striking examples of a prediction that didn’t pan out as expected is the Just in Time (JIT) manufacturing model. Initially, JIT was celebrated for its potential to minimize waste and reduce inventory costs. However, the COVID-19 pandemic exposed the vulnerabilities of this approach. As supply chains were disrupted worldwide, many companies found themselves unable to meet demand due to the lack of buffer stock. This has led to a reevaluation of the JIT model, with many businesses now looking to build more resilience into their supply chains by maintaining higher levels of inventory.

Another lesson comes from the early 2000s, when global sourcing was predicted to be the ultimate cost saving strategy. While it did lead to significant cost reductions, it also introduced new risks—ranging from quality control issues to geopolitical tensions—that have since prompted companies to reconsider the balance between cost savings and supply chain security.

The Inherent Risks of Relying on Predictions

One of the inherent risks in predicting supply chain trends is that it often leads to an overreliance on certain strategies or technologies. For instance, the push towards automation and robotics, while offering substantial benefits in terms of efficiency and cost savings, has also led to significant challenges. The initial costs, integration difficulties, and the need for upskilling workers have often been underestimated, leading to delays and unfulfilled promises.

Moreover, as we’ve seen with technologies like blockchain and AI, the hype often outpaces the reality. While these technologies have immense potential to transform supply chain management, their implementation has been slower and more complex than initially expected. This lag can create a false sense of security, leading companies to delay the adoption of alternative strategies or to underinvest in more immediately impactful areas.

Strategies for Navigating the Uncertainty

Given the inherent challenges of predicting the future, how can companies better prepare for what lies ahead? Here are a few strategies that can help:

• Embrace Flexibility and Resilience : Instead of betting on a single prediction or technology, companies should build flexibility into their supply chains. This might involve diversifying suppliers, maintaining higher inventory levels, or investing in modular production systems that can be quickly adapted to changing circumstances.
• Invest in Predictive Analytics : While past predictions have often fallen short, advances in AI and machine learning are making it possible to better anticipate supply chain disruptions and demand fluctuations. By investing in predictive analytics, companies can gain more accurate insights into future trends and make more informed decisions.
• Foster Stronger Relationships with Partners : As supply chains become more complex and globalized, the importance of strong relationships with suppliers and partners cannot be overstated. By working closely with partners, companies can ensure better alignment of goals, improved quality control, and more effective collaboration in the face of disruptions.
• Prioritize Sustainability : As consumer expectations shift towards more sustainable products, companies that prioritize sustainability in their supply chains will be better positioned to meet future demand. This might involve investing in sustainable sourcing practices, reducing waste, or adopting circular economy principles.
• Continual Learning and Adaptation : Finally, companies should foster a culture of continual learning and adaptation. By staying informed about the latest trends, technologies, and best practices, businesses can more effectively navigate the uncertainties of the future and seize new opportunities as they arise.

Predicting the future of supply chains is a daunting task, but it’s one that we must continually strive to master. By learning from past mistakes and adopting a proactive, flexible approach, we can better navigate the challenges ahead and turn potential disruptions into opportunities for growth and innovation. As we look to the future, let’s remember that while predictions can guide us, it’s our ability to adapt and respond to the unexpected that will ultimately determine our success.

What are the biggest challenges in predicting supply chain trends?

The biggest challenges include the complexity of global supply chains, the rapid pace of technological change, and the unpredictable nature of global disruptions. These factors make it difficult to accurately forecast future trends and adapt to new developments.

How can companies build more resilient supply chains?

Companies can build more resilient supply chains by diversifying their suppliers, maintaining higher inventory levels, investing in flexible production systems, and fostering strong relationships with partners. Additionally, leveraging predictive analytics can help companies anticipate disruptions and respond more effectively.

What role does technology play in modern supply chains?

Technology plays a critical role in modern supply chains, offering tools for real-time tracking, predictive analytics, and automation. However, the implementation of new technologies often comes with challenges, such as high costs and integration difficulties, which must be carefully managed.

Why is sustainability important in supply chain management?

Sustainability is increasingly important as consumers demand more environmentally friendly products. Companies that prioritize sustainability in their supply chains can reduce waste, improve efficiency, and better meet the expectations of consumers and regulators.

How can companies stay ahead of future supply chain challenges?

To stay ahead, companies should embrace flexibility, invest in new technologies, foster strong partnerships, prioritize sustainability, and continually adapt to new developments. Staying informed about industry trends and best practices is also crucial.

What lessons can be learned from past supply chain disruptions?

Past disruptions, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, have highlighted the importance of resilience, flexibility, and strong partnerships. Companies that learn from these events and adapt their strategies accordingly will be better positioned to navigate future challenges.

Chris Gaffney, SCL Managing Director  

Chris Gaffney

This website uses cookies.  For more information, review our  Privacy & Legal Notice Questions? Please email [email protected]. More Info Decline --> Accept

• Economics & Finance
• Foreign Policy
• Domestic Policy
• Health & Science
• All Publications

Responsible Collaboration Through Appropriate Research Security

Table of Contents

Share this publication.

• Download PDF
• Print This Publication

Tam K. Dao et al., “Responsible Collaboration Through Appropriate Research Security: A Workshop To Discuss and Study the Emergent Discipline of Research on Research Security” (Houston: Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy, September 5, 2024), https://doi.org/10.25613/YFR2-1593 .

A Workshop To Discuss and Study the Emergent Discipline of Research on Research Security

Executive summary.

A topic largely forgotten after the Cold War, research security has reemerged as a top national security concern for academia and the government. The renewed attention on research security issues was brought into sharp, public focus in 2018, when the National Institutes of Health raised concerns about foreign governments using systematic programs to compromise the U.S. research ecosystem as part of the Department of Justice’s China Initiative. Foreign covert programs aim to illegally acquire U.S. federally funded research, which is built on a tradition of openness, transparency, impartiality, respect, and fairness (Collins 2018). That research is the bedrock of the current and future U.S. economy in which a rules-based order protects against the theft of innovations produced by sponsored research.

These concerns were addressed in new research security policies enacted under the United States Government- Supported Research and Development National Security Presidential Memorandum (NSPM-33) as well as the research security provisions of the Creating Helpful Incentives to Produce Semiconductors (CHIPS) and Science Act of 2022. This policy is designed to strengthen protections of U.S. government-supported research and development against foreign interference and exploitation. Standing in the way of policy implementation is a poor understanding of what constitutes research security. Compounding the problem is a dearth of research on the pervasiveness of perceived risks; nature of the potential threats; and effective mitigation and prevention strategies. The shortage of research on research security and available data has led to a general lack of awareness among researchers and administrators on foreign influence and its associated risks to individuals and their home institutions.

To advance the field of research security, the U.S. National Science Foundation (NSF) announced its Research on Research Security (RoRS) program in July 2023. RoRS sponsors research in research security as required in the CHIPS and Science Act 2022. Initial thinking on the study of research security came in the form of a 2022 JASON report (JSR-22-08). The commencement of NSF funding has enabled actors in academia and industry to conduct scientific inquiry on this topic and in turn address unanswered questions in the field. NSF’s June 2023 issuance of a Dear Colleague Letter (DCL) opened the door for it to receive proposals to host a workshop that would bring together researchers who conduct or have an interest in conducting research in this domain. A workshop proposal was submitted to raise RoRS program awareness and develop a community of practice that includes institutions of higher education, industry, governmental entities, and nonprofit organizations conducting this highly interdisciplinary research. It was awarded to a team led by Rice University in Houston, Texas.

Workshop funding from NSF allowed Rice University and its Baker Institute for Public Policy, the University of Houston, IPTalons, Inc., and the Society of Research Administrators International, to host a two-part invitation-only workshop titled, “Responsible Collaboration Through Appropriate Research Security: A Workshop to Develop the Future Direction of the National Science Foundation’s Research on Research Security (RoRS) Program.” The workshop allowed the facilitators to assemble national and international academic experts and government and industry leaders across scientific disciplines and sectors of the research community who conduct or have an interest in conducting research on research security.

The results of the workshop generated four main research clusters along with the most pertinent research questions, potential research methods and approaches to address those questions, and associated challenges and hurdles facing the field of research security.

To access the full report, download the PDF .

Acknowledgments

This workshop and report were funded by NSF OIA #2348714, with supplemental funding from Rice University’s Office of Research. The organizing committee would like to thank John Marsh, Neethu Pottackal, Soumya Somani, Jordan Traylor, and Manna Treviño for serving as notetakers.

We would also like to offer special acknowledgements to Paul Zukas for his help organizing and facilitating the conference along with Phyllis McBride and Neal F. Lane for their comments and feedback to strengthen the clarity and consistency of the report.

Finally, we would like to extend our gratitude to Baker Institute staff Laura Hotze, Rachel Dehesa, Serena Storm, and the rest of the Baker Institute staff for their support of the event.

This material may be quoted or reproduced without prior permission, provided appropriate credit is given to the author and Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy. The views expressed herein are those of the individual author(s), and do not necessarily represent the views of Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy.

Related Research

An Urgent Call for Clear and Fair Law Enforcement Guidelines and Procedures for Research Security

Bioengineered Organisms in the Environment: How to Contain Them?

Promoted Yet Unproven: How State Laws Expand Access to Unchecked Stem Cell Interventions

• Research Projects
• Future Energy Systems Center
• Studies and reports
• Seed Fund Program

Research Focus Areas

• Carbon management
• Electric power
• Energy storage
• Low-carbon fuels
• Transportation
• Undergraduate education
• Graduate & postdoctoral
• Online education
• Education research
• Current members
• Energy Futures
• In the media
• Affiliations

The Future of Solar Energy

Read the report.

Executive summary (PDF) Full report (PDF)

The Future of Solar Energy considers only the two widely recognized classes of technologies for converting solar energy into electricity — photovoltaics (PV) and concentrated solar power (CSP), sometimes called solar thermal) — in their current and plausible future forms. Because energy supply facilities typically last several decades, technologies in these classes will dominate solar-powered generation between now and 2050, and we do not attempt to look beyond that date. In contrast to some earlier Future of studies, we also present no forecasts — for two reasons. First, expanding the solar industry dramatically from its relatively tiny current scale may produce changes we do not pretend to be able to foresee today. Second, we recognize that future solar deployment will depend heavily on uncertain future market conditions and public policies — including but not limited to policies aimed at mitigating global climate change.

As in other studies in this series, our primary aim is to inform decision-makers in the developed world, particularly the United States. We concentrate on the use of grid-connected solar-powered generators to replace conventional sources of electricity. For the more than one billion people in the developing world who lack access to a reliable electric grid, the cost of small-scale PV generation is often outweighed by the very high value of access to electricity for lighting and charging mobile telephone and radio batteries. In addition, in some developing nations it may be economic to use solar generation to reduce reliance on imported oil, particularly if that oil must be moved by truck to remote generator sites. A companion working paper discusses both these valuable roles for solar energy in the developing world.

Research Areas

Related publications.

Shaping photovoltaic array output to align with changing wholesale electricity price profiles

Spatial and temporal variation in the value of solar power across United States electricity markets

Solar heating for residential and industrial processes

Related News

MIT Energy Initiative Director Robert Armstrong shares perspectives on past successes and ongoing and future energy projects at the Institute.

• Ways to Give
• Contact an Expert
• Explore WRI Perspectives

Filter Your Site Experience by Topic

Applying the filters below will filter all articles, data, insights and projects by the topic area you select.

• All Topics Remove filter
• Climate filter site by Climate
• Cities filter site by Cities
• Energy filter site by Energy
• Food filter site by Food
• Forests filter site by Forests
• Freshwater filter site by Freshwater
• Ocean filter site by Ocean
• Business filter site by Business
• Economics filter site by Economics
• Finance filter site by Finance
• Equity & Governance filter site by Equity & Governance

Search WRI.org

Not sure where to find something? Search all of the site's content.

World Resources Report

The World Resources Report is World Resources Institute's flagship publication.

Each World Resources Report confronts an urgent, fundamental question, one that will help determine both how people everywhere and the natural ecosystems we depend on, can thrive.

To explore possible answers, research teams launch new studies that harness WRI’s innovative tools and technologies to gather, analyze and present data. They draw upon the deep expertise and resourcefulness of leading investigators inside and outside of WRI to gather evidence from around the world, write ground-breaking research papers and synthesize key findings to produce the World Resources Report.

We have been publishing World Resources Reports since 1986, and each one is a major, multi-year undertaking. But this rigorous research has yielded surprising discoveries and promising solutions. The knowledge gaps the reports have filled, and the new questions they raise, often guide future research. Objective evidence, showing what works and what does not, helps governments and development organizations improve programs. Policymakers facing daunting challenges and consequential decisions can rely on World Resources Report findings to help them navigate around risks, seize opportunities and plan for a better future.

Explore recent World Resources Reports

Towards a More Equal City

The World Resources Report: Towards a More Equal City focuses on helping cities in rapidly urbanizing regions alter their development trajectories as demand for infrastructure and services grow.

Launch Synthesis Report Learn more

Sustainable Food Future

Sustainably feeding nearly 10 billion people by 2050 is possible – but it will require significant innovation and investment by the public and private sector.

Launch Synthesis Report  

Adaptation in a Changing Climate

World Resources Report 2010-2011: Decision Making in a Changing Climate is a major resource to help developing country national-level officials make decisions that support communities and economic sectors to become more climate resilient.

Explore the Archive

View the entire archive of World Resources Reports.

View archive

Cover image by Dennis Jarvis

More Related

6 pressing questions about beef and climate change, answered, 4 urgent actions towards a more sustainable food system, 5 big ideas to address the climate crisis and inequality in cities, 6 ways the us can curb climate change and grow more food, a fairer and more sustainable post-covid world in latin america, redirecting agricultural subsidies for a sustainable food future, spatial characterization of urban land use through machine learning, webinar: why regenerative agriculture is good for soil health, but has limited potential to mitigate climate change, how you can help.

WRI relies on the generosity of donors like you to turn research into action. You can support our work by making a gift today or exploring other ways to give.

Stay Informed

World Resources Institute 10 G Street NE Suite 800 Washington DC 20002 +1 (202) 729-7600

© 2024 World Resources Institute

Envision a world where everyone can enjoy clean air, walkable cities, vibrant landscapes, nutritious food and affordable energy.

Future Finance Research Institute

• [email protected]

Sculpting the Future of Finance with Innovation and Expertise.

Future finance research institute : pioneering financial innovation at the forefront.

Cutting-edge expertise

Innovative solutions

Tailored guidance

Trusted partnership

Future Finance Research Institute offers a range of cutting-edge financial services aimed at helping our students and partners seize opportunities in the future financial market, achieving wealth enhancement and risk management goals.

Harnessing AI, blockchain, and big data, we accurately forecast stock market trends, elevate investment returns, and pioneer quantum trading technology in finance.

Research Achievements:

Leveraging AI technology, our expert team has accurately predicted major events and trends in the stock market multiple times.

Cutting-edge Technologies:

The integration of AI, blockchain, and big data has significantly boosted investment returns and mitigated investment risks.

Innovative Projects:

We are among the pioneers in applying quantum trading technology in the financial domain.

We brought their ideas to life

--> Integrity, customer-centricity, and innovative leadership drive us to deliver personalized investment solutions while upholding ethical conduct and pioneering advancements in finance. -->

A nation must think before it acts.

• America and the West
• Middle East
• National Security
• Central Asia
• China & Taiwan
• Expert Commentary
• Conversations
• Intern Corner
• Newsletters
• Press Contact
• Upcoming Events
• People, Politics, and Prose
• Briefings, Booktalks, and Conversations
• The Benjamin Franklin Award
• Event and Lecture Archive
• Ties That Bind: NATO at 75 and Beyond
• Chain Reaction
• Bear Market Brief
• Baltic Ways
• Report in Short
• Our Mission
• Board of Trustees
• Board of Advisors
• Research Programs
• Audited Financials
• PA Certificate of Charitable Registration
• Corporate Partnership

Moscow’s Compellence Strategy

• January 18, 2022
• Eurasia Program

How ambitious are Russia’s foreign policy objectives, and how much force does Moscow believe it must employ to achieve them? Moscow has submitted various ultimatums , but the most critical and pressing issue is that the Kremlin now regards Ukraine as a permanently hostile country continuing to increase its defense capabilities. Russian hopes for improved relations with President Volodymyr Zelensky were dashed in 2021 , and Moscow is now focused on reducing the long-term security risk posed by Ukraine, including halting its expanding defense cooperation with NATO. However, this is one of the most unrealistic and difficult demands for NATO to satisfy, particularly because Ukraine is developing long-range missiles domestically. This diplomatic impasse suggests a significant risk of a Russian military escalation in Ukraine with few obvious offramps.

A number of recent articles have suggested that the costs of a potential invasion are too high, or that the purpose of a Russian military operation in Ukraine would be to occupy territory . A better explanation of Moscow’s current actions is that they are part of a compellence campaign. If Moscow cannot convince the United States to agree to some of its demands and force Ukraine to make concessions, it may view military force as its last resort to change what it considers an unacceptable status quo. Russian behavior suggests that it believes the costs of inaction would be greater than the costs of a significant military escalation in Ukraine, particularly after reviewing the events in Ukraine over the summer and fall. Moscow’s military objectives would focus on imposing unacceptable costs on Ukraine by destroying military units, inflicting casualties, taking prisoners of war, or degrading Ukraine’s ability to defend itself. Russia could choose to seize territory to raise the costs on Kyiv, but this would likely not be the ultimate objective. Moscow could possibly achieve its objectives by unleashing Russia’s superior fires capability without an invasion or launching a short punitive raid with a planned withdrawal. These options would have fewer risks and costs than a large-scale invasion designed to occupy significantly more territory.

From Deterrence to Compellence

Russia’s current activities are a continuation of the military buildup it conducted near Ukraine in March and April 2021, and its armed forces are now better positioned for a major offensive. In April, Russia had slightly fewer battalion tactical groups — combined-arms units formed from motorized rifle, tank, naval infantry, or airborne battalions with supporting attachments — near Ukraine than today , as well as aviation and naval reinforcements. As part of that buildup, Russia deployed a number of battalion tactical groups, multiple launch rocket systems, Iskander-M short-range ballistic missile systems, and other units from the Central Military District’s 41st Combined Arms Army based in Siberia to staging positions near the border with Ukraine. Those forces were complemented by units based closer to Ukraine from Russia’s Southern and Western Military Districts, and units from the Russian Airborne Forces. Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu announced at the end of the spring buildup that the equipment from the 41st Combined Arms Army would remain near Ukraine until the Russian-Belarusian Zapad 2021 exercise in September, but most of the equipment didn’t take part in the exercise and wasn’t sent back to Siberia afterward. This indicated that the exercise was not the true purpose of their deployment.

Russia’s threats against Ukraine are more dangerous now because, ultimately, its public threats earlier this year failed. I previously argued that the spring 2021 buildup was a demonstration designed to deter NATO and the United States from adopting “anti-Russian” policies, such as moving forward with Ukrainian accession into NATO or further NATO defense cooperation with Ukraine, by threatening to asymmetrically use military force against Ukraine. Three factors likely influenced the timing of the spring buildup. First, it was a reminder to Washington of Moscow’s military power and forced dialogue with the Biden administration to clarify the U.S.-Russian relationship. Second, the buildup occurred just a month after Ukrainian President Zelensky decided to shut down three television channels controlled by Viktor Medvedchuk, a close friend of President Vladimir Putin. Russia adopted a more conciliatory approach after Zelensky’s inauguration with the hopes of reaching a deal over the Donbas, which included replacing the more hawkish Vladislav Surkov with Dmitry Kozak as the Kremlin’s point person for negotiations with Ukraine. However, Russian officials felt Kyiv did not live up to its commitments from the 2019 Normandy Summit, which included granting the Donbas a special status. In 2020, after reaching a tentative agreement on establishing an Advisory Council with Russia, Kyiv walked back from the deal after domestic criticism. Moscow concluded that Ukrainian domestic politics would prevent any progress in implementing the Minsk agreements without external pressure. According to Russia’s Kommersant newspaper , Russia’s hopes for a diplomatic agreement with Ukraine collapsed in 2021, and Russian officials began to intensify pressure on their neighbor.

After the spring buildup ended, Kyiv continued to pursue policies that angered Russian officials. Medvedchuk was placed under house arrest in May. In response, Putin devoted the entirety of his opening speech at the next meeting of the Russian Security Council on developments in Ukraine, including a passionate defense of Medvedchuk . He accused Kyiv of “purging their political environment” and suggested that Ukraine was turning “slowly but steadily, into an antipode of Russia, an anti-Russia.” A month later, Putin reacted angrily after the Ukrainian parliament adopted a law on indigenous peoples, which didn’t include Russians (it also didn’t include Ukrainians). He compared the law’s consequences to those of “ some kind of weapon of mass destruction .” In August, Zelensky sanctioned several Russian entities and blocked several Russian websites, including the digital services provider Rostelecom and the Moskovsky Komsomolets and Vedomosti newspapers.

The third factor explaining the timing of the spring buildup was Azerbaijan’s victory in the 2 nd Nagorno-Karabakh War. Azerbaijan won with critical support from Turkey, which included Turkish officers operating the TB2 unmanned combat aerial vehicles that played such a crucial role. The war was the first time an outside power had used military force in the former Soviet Union and was only the latest in a series of confrontations between Russia and Turkey. The two countries had recently fought over Syria’s Idlib and Aleppo provinces and Libya in the spring of 2020. In addition, Ankara has sold TB2 combat drones to former Soviet states, including Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan, Azerbaijan , and Ukraine . Moscow likely viewed Ukraine as a place where it could confront Turkish defense cooperation with Russia’s neighbors and linked Ankara’s actions to the Kremlin’s broader criticism of creeping NATO support for Kyiv.

If one of Russia’s objectives of the spring buildup was to deter further NATO support for Ukraine, the summer and fall events demonstrated its failure. One week after the June 2021 summit between Presidents Joe Biden and Vladimir Putin, the United Kingdom sent the HMS Defense frigate through Crimean territorial waters, infuriating Russian officials . A Russian Coast Guard ship fired warning shots from behind the British frigate, and Russian officials claimed Russian Su-24 bombers dropped aerial bombs in its path. Russia never published footage of this and British journalists on the HMS Defender never report ed on the alleged use of bombs, which indicates Russian officials were lying, but it demonstrated how seriously Moscow considered the event. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov warned that anyone engaging in similar future acts “ will get clocked in the nose .” The day before the incident, the United Kingdom signed a Memorandum of Implementation on a naval arms deal with Kyiv. The final 1.7-billion-pound loan agreement with Kyiv for the joint production of missile boats, as well as minehunters and other naval weapons. Meanwhile, the United States provided an additional $60 million worth of equipment , authorized by the Biden administration in August, as well as additional Javelin anti-tank guided missiles. The U.S. also signed a Strategic Defense Framework and Charter on Strategic Partnership with Ukraine .

Defense cooperation between Kyiv and Ankara continued as well. The two countries moved forward on a deal for the licensed production of TB2 drones — the drone that played a critical role in the Nagorno-Karabakh war — in Ukraine. Turkey delivered additional TB2 to the Ukrainian Navy in July, and the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense announced plans to purchase another 24 TB2s in September. At the end of October, Ukraine conducted its first air strike with a TB2 drone on a D-30 howitzer in the Russian-occupied Donbas. This strike proved that Turkey exported the TB2 without restrictions on their use in the Donbas.

TB2 drones do not significantly alter the balance of power between Ukraine and Russia but they do between Ukrainian forces and the Russian-backed rebels in the Donbas. If Ukraine keeps using them in the region, Russia would be forced to counter them directly with the Russian military — either by shooting them down or targeting their airfields with long-range missiles — or covertly deploying more capable air defense or electronic warfare systems to the Donbas.

From Moscow’s perspective, the TB2 strike and the HMS Defender incident were public embarrassments that tested Russia’s credibility, especially after the publicity surrounding the spring buildup and the summit with Biden. So, it is not surprising that the Kremlin decided to change its approach. Russia deemed the status quo unacceptable and saw trend lines undermining its position. Its coercive measures in the spring failed to deter Ukraine’s defense modernization, NATO support for Kyiv, or “anti-Russian” policies adopted by President Zelensky. As a result, Moscow changed its approach from deterrence to compellence.

In contrast to Russian officials providing justifications for their buildup and mentioning red lines in vague terms during the spring, Moscow is now giving concrete demands to NATO and the United States and specific examples of actions that would violate their red lines. These demands are tied to a short Russian-imposed deadline with the threat of a “military-technical and military” response if concessions are not granted, which are all hallmarks of compellence. Russia has deployed approximately 32 percent of its military’s battalion tactical groups near Ukraine, a figure the U.S. intelligence community reportedly believes could rise to 60 percent. Compared to the spring, Russia has sent even more equipment from the 41 st Combined Arms Army, and a number of battalion tactical groups and equipment from the 1 st Tank Army based in Moscow, near Ukraine’s borders.

This buildup initially focused on deploying heavy equipment and units based far from Ukraine, which means Moscow could quickly increase its military capabilities near Ukraine by deploying lighter units, such as airborne battalions, and units based 200 to 450 miles from the border. Over the past week, videos have shown military equipment from Russia’s Eastern Military District moving westward on trains, including the Pacific Fleet’s 155th Naval Infantry Brigade, tank and motorized rifle units , Buk-M2 air defense systems, BM-27 Uragan multiple launch rocket systems, and more Iskander-M short-range ballistic missile systems. The Russian Ministry of Defense announced a snap combat readiness inspection of the district on January 14 to test the ability of units to complete missions after conducting long-distance movements. Russian and Belarusian officials also announced that their forces will take part in a joint exercise that will last until February 20 including the deployment of a Russian Su-35S fighter squadron, two S-400 air defense battalions, and a Pantsir-S air defense battalion to Belarus as well as ground equipment. Interestingly, some of the units that will deploy to Belarus will come from the Eastern Military District. Of course, this also means that Russia will have military units along Ukraine’s northern border, placing Kyiv and other locations at even greater risk. If the Eastern Military District and the Russian Airborne Forces both contribute 10-15 battalion tactical groups each, Russia will have close to the 100 battalion tactical groups that the U.S. intelligence community assessed would be deployed near Ukraine. In addition, several large landing ships from Russia’s Baltic Fleet have departed the Baltic Sea and are possibly headed towards the Black Sea. An enhanced Russian amphibious capability in the region could force Ukraine to send more units to defend its southern coastline, spreading its forces even thinner.

In contrast to the public buildup this spring, Russia has made a concerted effort to obscure its movements this time, moving equipment at night, rotating units between training ranges, and blocking websites used for tracking trains . In short, Russia is setting the conditions where it could conduct a significant military escalation, including a large-scale ground invasion, on short notice and with little warning, giving its threats greater weight. This buildup is not routine “saber-rattling” and departs from normal Russian behavior and rhetoric. Moreover, Russian officials are backing themselves into a corner by committing themselves to a strong response unless they receive concessions. If it does not achieve some of its stated goals, Moscow will suffer a cost to its credibility if it does not escalate.

Russia ’s Problem is Ukraine

Russia doesn’t use force for the sake of waging war, but instead to achieve specific political goals. Their list of demands includes a complete halt to NATO expansion, limits on the deployment of intermediate and short-range missiles, and an end to U.S. and NATO countries’ defense cooperation with Ukraine. Although Russia is interested in a broader dialogue regarding Europe’s security architecture, Ukraine is Moscow’s most pressing and important issue, explaining Russia’s demands to resolve the issue quickly. None of Russia’s other demands, such as an end to further NATO expansion, explain why Moscow is so determined to force the issue right now, since there is no indication other countries, including Ukraine, could join NATO in the near future.

Rhetoric from Russian officials regarding Ukraine escalated significantly in 2021. Both Putin and former President Dmitry Medvedev penned strongly-worded essays on Ukraine in July and October, respectively. Putin ominously wrote , “I am confident that true sovereignty of Ukraine is possible only in partnership with Russia,” two weeks after the Ukrainian indigenous peoples bill was adopted. Medvedev referred to Ukraine’s leadership as “vassals” and argued that further talks with Kyiv were pointless, which set the stage for the fall’s buildup and the focus of Russia’s negotiations with Washington, not Kyiv. One of the most specific concerns raised by President Putin and other Russian officials is the potential threat posed by long-range missiles based in Ukraine, which could reach Moscow in a matter of minutes . Given the deadlock on negotiations over the Minsk agreement implementation, Russia has concluded that Ukraine will remain a hostile neighbor for the foreseeable future, and Kyiv continues to strengthen its defensive capabilities. If Russia can’t force neutrality on Ukraine, Moscow will try to prevent Ukraine from improving its conventional deterrence.

The Kremlin ’ s Military Options

When assessing Moscow’s cost-benefit analysis of using force in Ukraine, it is important to consider not just the likely costs of an escalation now, but also the costs of not taking action. There is no evidence a NATO member has considered providing long-range missiles to Ukraine, but other forms of defense cooperation with Kyiv have steadily intensified. Moscow wants to preempt further arms deliveries before Ukraine receives strategically significant weapons that could change the military balance, unlike Javelin anti-tank guided missiles provided by the United States. While it is much more effective today than in 2014, the Ukrainian military lacks strong long-range fires capabilities, particularly relative to Russia.

Concerning Ukraine, Russia lacks many tools to influence Kyiv other than military force. Thus, Moscow likely believes a significant military escalation now would be less costly today than in the future if Ukraine continues to strengthen its military capabilities. If Ukraine had longer-range missiles, it could threaten Russian cities or military infrastructure, limiting Russia’s ability to use military threats to coerce Kyiv. Notably, the assembly areas where Russian forces have massed their equipment in Yelnya and Pogonovo are beyond the range of Ukraine’s Tochka-U tactical ballistic missiles.

A large-scale invasion is not Russia’s only course of action as part of a compellence campaign. There are multiple tiers of military force that Moscow could employ depending on how ambitious its objectives are. The more ambitious the goal, the more force necessary to change Kyiv’s and NATO’s cost-benefit calculus. If Russia is determined to force constitutional changes in Ukraine or a modified version of the Minsk accords, it is unlikely to achieve this short of a ground invasion or heavy use of fires that could threaten the survival of the Ukrainian state.

Seizing and occupying territory could be a means of raising pressure on Kyiv, but occupying terrain would not be the ultimate objective. If Russia had sought to occupy more territory, the past few weeks of public ultimatums would have been counterproductive, simply giving Ukraine and NATO more time to prepare. Some analyses have mentioned potential options to seize a land bridge between the Donbas and Crimea, an operation in Odessa, or even an attempt at occupying Western Ukraine . If the purpose is to compel Ukraine’s leadership, then a ground invasion only makes sense if it puts Ukraine in a more untenable or threatened position. Neither a land bridge nor an operation in Odessa would likely achieve that result, but an offensive towards Kyiv could.

The current posture of Russian forces points to a ground invasion towards the Ukrainian capital as a more likely option. Compared to the spring, when many of the reinforcements were sent to Crimea, Russia has now deployed a significant share of its forces, primarily the 41 st Combined Arms Army, to Yelnya , to the north of Ukraine. These are in addition to the 1 st Tank Army units deployed to Pogonovo , 100 miles to the northeast of Ukraine’s border. Kyiv is approximately 110 miles from the northern border with Russia, and Moscow is deploying its reinforcements in the regions where they could launch offensives from Ukraine’s northern and northeastern borders. Russia has also begun moving equipment to smaller encampments near the border in the Bryansk, Belgorod, and Kursk regions . The transfer of Russian units to Belarus for the upcoming exercise increases the threat posed along Ukraine’s northern border.

The most likely ground offensive option is that the Russian military would focus on destroying Ukrainian military units east of the Dnieper River, inflicting casualties, taking prisoners of war, destroying military equipment, and degrading defense capabilities. This could include a planned withdrawal — a punitive raid —possibly after one or two weeks. It could also involve occupying terrain outside Kyiv and threatening the capital unless Russia’s demands are met. Such an operation would more closely resemble a more aggressive version of Russia’s war in Georgia in 2008 than its annexation of Crimea. By inflicting heavy losses on the Ukrainian military, taking prisoners of war, and degrading Kyiv’s defense capabilities, Russia could potentially alter Zelensky’s incentive structure sufficiently to induce painful concessions. An additional benefit of such an operation is that it would likely be less costly and would not require Russian forces to enter cities, which would increase the risk of civilian casualties and make an insurgency more effective.

If Moscow has more limited objectives, such as deterring any future Ukrainian TB2 or artillery strikes in the Donbas, it could achieve them with less force. This could include shooting down TB2 drones if they fly near the Donbas or targeting their airfields with long-range munitions. Russia could also declare a no-fly zone or announce that the Russian military would respond to any further Ukrainian artillery strikes in the Donbas with an overt response from the Russian military. These steps are too limited to force Kyiv to offer major political concessions, but they could alter Ukraine’s actions in the Donbas.

Another military option short of an invasion could involve employing Russia’s superior fires capability with artillery, multiple launch rocket systems, short-range ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and other standoff weapons, targeting Ukrainian military positions. A campaign of missile and artillery strikes could be limited to targeting specific Ukrainian military capabilities—for example, Ukrainian artillery units that fired on positions in the Donbas—or could inflict thousands of casualties on the Ukrainian military and significantly degrade its military capabilities, including strikes on Ukrainian air defenses and airfields. Russia could also start with more limited use of force, such as artillery and missile strikes, and escalate if its demands are not met. These options would likely include using cyber and electronic warfare systems, either in support of a broader military operation or by themselves. Indeed, even if Russia does not invade from Belarusian territory, it could employ electronic warfare systems from Belarus to disrupt Ukrainian communications and command and control in Kyiv, or possibly to interfere with U.S. reconnaissance aircraft, such as E-8 Joint Surveillance Target Attack Radar Systems, that are sharing intelligence with Ukraine.

These more limited military options would put Russian servicemembers at less at risk than a ground invasion. Ukraine’s Javelins and other short-range weapons would be of little use if Russia decided to rely on its standoff weapons, and Russia possesses a significant advantage in long-range fires capabilities. More limited use of force likely would not incur the maximum response from NATO. Would Washington be willing to pursue its strongest sanctions against the Russian economy if Russia shot down a Ukrainian TB2 or narrowly targeted specific Ukrainian units? The problem with these more limited options is that they likely would not solve Russia’s primary problem: a hostile Ukraine that is increasing its conventional deterrence capabilities. So a more aggressive option is more likely.

Russia is in a strong position to force the issue now. The Russian military’s Southern and Western Military Districts, which share the border with Ukraine, have completed the previous two annual strategic command-staff exercises, Kavkaz 2020 and Zapad 2021 , that rotate every year and focus on fighting a high-intensity conventional conflict. The rearmament of the Black Sea Fleet since 2014 has largely been completed, with the commissioning of more than a dozen diesel submarines and surface ships capable of carrying Kalibr cruise missiles, and the Russian Ground Forces have been reequipped with twelve Iskander-M brigades since 2010. The Russian military continues to rearm and will remain more powerful than Ukraine’s in absolute terms. Still, its relative strength vis-à-vis Ukraine will likely decline over time, given Ukraine’s current modernization efforts, incentivizing a Russian military operation now.

Additionally, Russia has girded itself for confrontation. Its economy is in a far stronger position today — international reserves are currently at an all-time high —than when Moscow invaded Ukraine and intervened in Syria in 2014–2015 during a severe economic downturn. Moscow’s crackdown on domestic opposition has also reduced the threat of serious protests. The most recent poll from the independent Levada Center indicated that half of Russians blame the U.S. or NATO for the crisis, but only four percent blame Russia. Domestic approval likely is not much of a restraint for Putin if he decides to escalate against the Ukrainian military. However, this could change if Russian forces damage Ukrainian cities like Poltava and Kharkiv or cause civilian casualties. This is another reason why a limited punitive raid targeting the Ukrainian military is a more attractive option. 

Do Not Underestimate Russia ’s Willingness to Fight

It is impossible to be sure what Putin is thinking, but Moscow’s current behavior is far from routine. Russia has deployed nearly an entire combined arms army from Siberia and is sending a large force from the Eastern Military District to Belarus. The scope of this deployment of ground combat power is unprecedented for post-Soviet Russia. Ultimatums accompanied by Russian officials publicly committing to a military response mean Russia will suffer a credibility cost if it does not act or achieve concessions. President Putin likely accepted that Russia might need to use military force if NATO and Ukraine refused to back down when he authorized a second buildup this fall. Moscow is signaling that it believes the costs of inaction are higher than the costs of employing force now. Given the failure of Russia’s previous attempts to deter NATO from expanding support for Ukraine, we should not underestimate the likelihood that Russia will conduct a significant military escalation in Ukraine if some of its demands are not met. However, this might not happen immediately. The COVID-19 Omicron variant is now spreading in Russia, and the Olympics are set to begin in China in two weeks. The Russia-Georgia War in 2008 occurred during the previous Olympics held in China, and Moscow likely wants to avoid drawing attention away from Beijing again. The upcoming joint exercise with Belarus is set to end on February 20, the same day as the closing ceremony for the Olympics. In addition, equipment is still enroute from the Eastern Military District and Russia has yet to commit most of the Airborne Forces near Ukraine. However, once the equipment arrives from the Russian Far East, Moscow will likely need to decide whether to use force over the next few months given the readiness costs. 

Misinterpreting Russia’s political goals and its most likely military options can lead to poor policy advice. Many arguments about deterring a Russian invasion assume Russia intends to occupy large parts of Ukrainian territory for long periods of time and suggest further deliveries of Javelin anti-guided missiles or Stinger MANPADS, which could be effective as part of an insurgency. However, if Russia does not plan to occupy population centers, these weapons will have little impact and they wouldn’t be effective at deterring these Russian military options. If the U.S. attempted to deliver the kind of weapons that could alter the military balance between Russia and Ukraine, such as long-range missiles or missile defense systems, Moscow would almost certainly preempt their delivery with a military escalation. Better deterrence options would not take effect unless Russia conducted a significant escalation, making Moscow the initiator. Such an approach would worsen Russia’s security situation, potentially negating whatever security benefits it hoped to achieve by escalating in Ukraine. These options could include a commitment to deploy long-range missiles or missile defense systems to the Baltic countries in the event of an expanded Russian invasion.

The views expressed in this article are those of the author alone and do not necessarily reflect the position of the Foreign Policy Research Institute, a non-partisan organization that seeks to publish well-argued, policy-oriented articles on American foreign policy and national security priorities.

Related article(s)

Russia’s coercive diplomacy: why did the kremlin mass its forces near ukraine this spring.

• Turkey’s Response to the Russia-Ukraine Crisis

Related Multimedia

• Tensions Over Ukraine: Russia’s Rationale for War

Related Event

• Tensions between Russia and Ukraine: How likely is another war?

You May Also be Interested in

How to recalibrate u.s. policy in the middle east.

  Executive Summary Changes in the Middle East have not been sufficiently accounted for in U.S. policy towards the...

Reconceptualizing Lithuania’s Importance for U.S. Foreign Policy

  This report is part of FPRI’s collaboration with Eastern Europe Studies Centre in Vilnius, Lithuania and can also...

  Introduction During March and April 2021, the Russian military conducted a large-scale buildup in its regions bordering Ukraine,...

Institute For The Future

• IFTF Vantage Partnership
• IFTF Foresight Essentials
• Artifacts from the Future
• In the News
• Media Center
• History of the Future
• Featured Projects
• Global Landscape
• People + Technology
• Health + Self
• IFTF Vantage
• Research Labs
• Privacy Policy

Future Work Skills 2020

Ten-Year Forecast

Food Futures

Work + Learn Futures

Workable Futures

Cities Futures

Governance Futures

Inclusive Futures

Socialstructing

Sustainability

Smithsonian Futures Beacons

Tech Futures

After the Pandemic

Centering Health

Health Futures

Health Care

Health Games

INTERESTED IN LEARNING MORE ABOUT IFTF?

Contact us today »

Future NOW Blog

Identify Your Assets and Gaps: A Foresight Tool for Action

Oct 14, 2022

IFTF News from the Future #80

Oct 06, 2022

IFTF Equitable Enterprise Newsletter | September

Sep 28, 2022

Sparking a Sense of Hope & Agency

Sep 19, 2022

IFTF News from the Future #79

Sep 08, 2022

Browse all blog posts »

The Re-working of "Work"

Global connectivity, smart machines, and new media are just some of the drivers reshaping how we think about work, what constitutes work, and the skills we will need to be productive contributors in the future. This report analyzes key drivers that will reshape the landscape of work and identifies key work skills needed in the next 10 years. It does not consider what will be the jobs of the future. Many studies have tried to predict specific job categories and labor requirements. Consistently over the years, however, it has been shown that such predictions are difficult and many of the past predictions have been proven wrong. Rather than focusing on future jobs, this report looks at future work skills—proficiencies and abilities required across different jobs and work settings.

Publication Date

Future Work Skills 2020 Report [SR-1382A]

Future Work Skills 2020 Summary Map

Translations

Read the Polish translation of Future Work Skills 2020 on alogic.

Curious about IFTF?

Interested in learning more about working with Institute for the future? Contact:

John Clamme | [email protected]

Institute for the Future

• 201 Hamilton Avenue
• Palo Alto, CA 94301
• 650.854.6322
• [email protected]
• © 2024 Institute for the Future

Partner with IFTF

Visit U of I

Learn about the many reasons the University of Idaho could be a perfect fit for you. Schedule Your Visit

• Discover a Career
• Find a Major
• Experience U of I Life

More Resources

• Admitted Students
• International Students

Take Action

• Find Financial Aid
• View Deadlines
• Find Your Rep

Helping to ensure U of I is a safe and engaging place for students to learn and be successful. Read about Title IX

Get Involved

• Clubs & Volunteer Opportunities

Campus Recreation

• Student Government
• Sustainability Center
• Academic Assistance
• Safety & Security
• Career Services
• Health & Wellness Services
• Register for Classes
• Dates & Deadlines
• Financial Aid
• U of I Library

Homecoming Oct. 14 - 21

Join other Vandal families for a week of celebration and Vandal traditions. View Calendar

Stay Connected

• Upcoming Events
• Here We Have Idaho Magazine
• Support Services
• About Moscow
• Commencement
• Dads' Weekend
• Moms' Weekend

• U of I Retirees Association

UIRA has a membership of nearly 500 from every part of the University. Learn about UIRA

• Submit Class Notes
• Make a Gift
• View Events
• Vandal Pride Products
• Vandal Voyagers Program
• Alumni Chapters
• University Magazine
• Alumni Newsletter

Gym memberships and wellness class passes are available for faculty, staff and their spouses. Get Healthy

Common Tools

• Administrative Procedures Manual (APM)
• Class Schedule
• ITS Tech Support
• Academic Dates & Deadlines
• Daily Register
• Faculty Senate
• Staff Council

Application Management

Office of Admissions

Physical Address: University of Idaho Bruce M. Pitman Center 709 Deakin Street Rm 117  Moscow, ID 83844

Mailing Address: University of Idaho 875 Perimeter Drive MS 4264 Moscow, ID 83844-4264

Phone: 208-885-6326

Fax: 208-885-9119

Email: [email protected]

Web: Office of Admissions

Physical Address: University of Idaho Boise 322 E. Front St Boise, ID 83702

Email: [email protected]

Web: Boise Center

Coeur d'Alene

Physical Address: University of Idaho Coeur d'Alene 1031 N Academic Way Suite 242 Coeur d'Alene, ID 83814

Web: Coeur d'Alene Center

Idaho Falls

Physical Address: University of Idaho Idaho Fall 1776 Science Center Dr. Suite 306 Idaho Falls, ID 83840

Web: Idaho Falls Center