research questions about business in pandemic

The Pandemic Changed Us. Now Companies Have to Change Too.

by Jennifer Moss

Summary .   

During the pandemic, the global workforce was toiling away under the weight of chronic stress, financial insecurity, and collective grief. We became exhausted, self-efficacy decreased, and cynicism grew. It’s no wonder that people eventually hit the wall and started leaving their jobs in droves. One of the biggest reasons why people left? Unsustainable workloads. Still, many organizations kept marching ahead. Stretch goals remained, despite employees being unable to meet the demand. Too many employees were pushed past their breaking points. Now, employers are finally starting to listen, as employees renegotiate their social contracts with work. Mental health awareness, a focus on increasing fairness, hybrid offerings and flexible hours, more active listening, real-time feedback, and personalizing communication are all initiatives that are working to solve issues around burnout in a more upstream manner than we’ve seen before. Leaders are beginning to have a clearer understanding that new workplace policies are not just “nice to haves,” but a necessity going forward.

It may sound obvious, but facing our collective mortality for the last two years changed us. Of course, many of us had confronted big challenges in our pre-pandemic lives, but this shared experience was uniquely difficult. One area of our lives that was dramatically altered was our collective perspective related to work.

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Surging business formation in the pandemic: Causes and consequences?

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Authors: ryan a. decker and ryan a. decker principal economist - federal reserve board john haltiwanger john haltiwanger professor of economics - university of maryland discussant: jorge a. guzman jorge a. guzman associate professor of business - columbia business school.

September 27, 2023

The paper summarized here is part of the Fall 2023 edition of the Brookings Papers on Economic Activity (BPEA) , the leading conference series and journal in economics for timely, cutting-edge research about real-world policy issues. The conference draft of this paper was presented at the  Fall 2023 BPEA Conference (recordings and slides are available via the link). The final version was published in the Fall 2023 issue by Johns Hopkins University Press. Submit a proposal to present at a future BPEA conference  here .

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An unanticipated jump in business formation during the COVID-19 pandemic may be the start of a trend toward a more dynamic and productive U.S. economy, suggests a paper discussed at the Brookings Papers on Economic Activity (BPEA) conference on September 29.

“We find early hints of a revival of business dynamism; but in many respects it is too early to ascertain whether a durable reversal of pre-pandemic trends is occurring,” write the authors, Ryan A. Decker of the Federal Reserve Board and John Haltiwanger of the University of Maryland.

According to their paper—”Surging Business Formation in the Pandemic: Causes and Consequences?”—applications to the Internal Revenue Service for new Employee Identification Numbers (EINs) briefly plunged early in the pandemic but then rose sharply during the second half of 2020 and remained elevated through mid-2023.

The applications were quickly followed by increases in new locations of existing businesses (establishment births) and new businesses (firm births), and, in turn, by “notable associated job creation,” the paper said, citing Census Bureau and Bureau of Labor Statistics data.

The authors analyzed business formation (both establishment and firm births) by sector, firm size and age, and geographic location. They found a shift in growth during the pandemic from large and mature firms to more dynamic young and small firms. This shift followed two decades dominated by larger firms and characterized by anemic business dynamism, which in turn followed a period of strong productivity growth powered by high-tech startups in the 1990s.

The question the authors pose is whether the pandemic business entry surge will drive a renewed and durable increase in innovation and productivity growth or whether it is largely a reshuffling of economic activity to accommodate more people working from home.

In support of the reshuffling hypothesis, they observed a “donut effect” with business applications increasing more in the suburbs of large metropolitan areas than in central business districts—particularly for service businesses such as restaurants and gyms, reflecting the shift in where people spent their time.

But, in support of the more optimistic interpretation, they note applications and establishment births increased strongly in high-tech sectors likely to fuel innovation, such as online retailing, software publishing, computer systems design, data processing, and research and development services such as artificial intelligence businesses.

They also noted a “tight connection” between surging business applications and employees voluntarily quitting their jobs and only a weak connection between applications and layoffs. They said that suggests workers were moving to new and higher-paying jobs rather than just scrambling for self-employment income to replace a lost paycheck.

“This looks to have been a genuine substantive phenomenon involving a lot of actual job creation,” Decker said in an interview with The Brookings Institution. “This was a real thing.”

However, the authors warn that young businesses started during the pandemic—and their potential economic benefits—may be at risk in the event of a broad slowdown.

“Start-ups are amongst the most fragile businesses,” Haltiwanger said in an interview. “If a significant economic contraction occurs because of monetary policy tightening … that will have some longer-lasting effects on innovation in the future.”

Decker, Ryan A. and John Haltiwanger. 2023. “Surging Business Formation in the Pandemic: Causes and Consequences?” Brookings Papers on Economic Activity , Fall. 249-302.

Guzman, Jorge. 2023. “Comment on ‘Surging Business Formation in the Pandemic: Causes and Consequences?’.” Brookings Papers on Economic Activity , Fall. 303-311.

The authors did not receive financial support from any firm or person for this article or from any firm or person with a financial or political interest in this article. The authors are not currently an officer, director, or board member of any organization with a financial or political interest in this article.

David Skidmore authored the summary language for this paper. Chris Miller assisted with data visualization.

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• Published: 16 June 2020

COVID-19 impact on research, lessons learned from COVID-19 research, implications for pediatric research

• Debra L. Weiner 1 , 2 ,
• Vivek Balasubramaniam 3 ,
• Shetal I. Shah 4 &
• Joyce R. Javier 5 , 6

on behalf of the Pediatric Policy Council

Pediatric Research volume  88 ,  pages 148–150 ( 2020 ) Cite this article

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The COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in unprecedented research worldwide. The impact on research in progress at the time of the pandemic, the importance and challenges of real-time pandemic research, and the importance of a pediatrician-scientist workforce are all highlighted by this epic pandemic. As we navigate through and beyond this pandemic, which will have a long-lasting impact on our world, including research and the biomedical research enterprise, it is important to recognize and address opportunities and strategies for, and challenges of research and strengthening the pediatrician-scientist workforce.

The first cases of what is now recognized as SARS-CoV-2 infection, termed COVID-19, were reported in Wuhan, China in December 2019 as cases of fatal pneumonia. By February 26, 2020, COVID-19 had been reported on all continents except Antarctica. As of May 4, 2020, 3.53 million cases and 248,169 deaths have been reported from 210 countries. 1

Impact of COVID-19 on ongoing research

The impact on research in progress prior to COVID-19 was rapid, dramatic, and no doubt will be long term. The pandemic curtailed most academic, industry, and government basic science and clinical research, or redirected research to COVID-19. Most clinical trials, except those testing life-saving therapies, have been paused, and most continuing trials are now closed to new enrollment. Ongoing clinical trials have been modified to enable home administration of treatment and virtual monitoring to minimize participant risk of COVID-19 infection, and to avoid diverting healthcare resources from pandemic response. In addition to short- and long-term patient impact, these research disruptions threaten the careers of physician-scientists, many of whom have had to shift efforts from research to patient care. To protect research in progress, as well as physician-scientist careers and the research workforce, ongoing support is critical. NIH ( https://grants.nih.gov/policy/natural-disasters/corona-virus.htm ), PCORI ( https://www.pcori.org/funding-opportunities/applicant-and-awardee-faqs-related-covid-19 ), and other funders acted swiftly to provide guidance on proposal submission and award management, and implement allowances that enable grant personnel to be paid and time lines to be relaxed. Research institutions have also implemented strategies to mitigate the long-term impact of research disruptions. Support throughout and beyond the pandemic to retain currently well-trained research personnel and research support teams, and to accommodate loss of research assets, including laboratory supplies and study participants, will be required to complete disrupted research and ultimately enable new research.

In the long term, it is likely that the pandemic will force reallocation of research dollars at the expense of research areas funded prior to the pandemic. It will be more important than ever for the pediatric research community to engage in discussion and decisions regarding prioritization of funding goals for dedicated pediatric research and meaningful inclusion of children in studies. The recently released 2020 National Institute of Child Health and Development (NICHD) strategic plan that engaged stakeholders, including scientists and patients, to shape the goals of the Institute, will require modification to best chart a path toward restoring normalcy within pediatric science.

COVID-19 research

This global pandemic once again highlights the importance of research, stable research infrastructure, and funding for public health emergency (PHE)/disaster preparedness, response, and resiliency. The stakes in this worldwide pandemic have never been higher as lives are lost, economies falter, and life has radically changed. Ultimate COVID-19 mitigation and crisis resolution is dependent on high-quality research aligned with top priority societal goals that yields trustworthy data and actionable information. While the highest priority goals are treatment and prevention, biomedical research also provides data critical to manage and restore economic and social welfare.

Scientific and technological knowledge and resources have never been greater and have been leveraged globally to perform COVID-19 research at warp speed. The number of studies related to COVID-19 increases daily, the scope and magnitude of engagement is stunning, and the extent of global collaboration unprecedented. On January 5, 2020, just weeks after the first cases of illness were reported, the genetic sequence, which identified the pathogen as a novel coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, was released, providing information essential for identifying and developing treatments, vaccines, and diagnostics. As of May 3, 2020 1133 COVID-19 studies, including 148 related to hydroxychloroquine, 13 to remdesivir, 50 to vaccines, and 100 to diagnostic testing, were registered on ClinicalTrials.gov, and 980 different studies on the World Health Organization’s International Clinical Trials Registry Platform (WHO ICTRP), made possible, at least in part, by use of data libraries to inform development of antivirals, immunomodulators, antibody-based biologics, and vaccines. On April 7, 2020, the FDA launched the Coronavirus Treatment Acceleration Program (CTAP) ( https://www.fda.gov/drugs/coronavirus-covid-19-drugs/coronavirus-treatment-acceleration-program-ctap ). On April 17, 2020, NIH announced a partnership with industry to expedite vaccine development ( https://www.nih.gov/news-events/news-releases/nih-launch-public-private-partnership-speed-covid-19-vaccine-treatment-options ). As of May 1, 2020, remdesivir (Gilead), granted FDA emergency use authorization, is the only approved therapeutic for COVID-19. 2

The pandemic has intensified research challenges. In a rush for data already thousands of manuscripts, news reports, and blogs have been published, but to date, there is limited scientifically robust data. Some studies do not meet published clinical trial standards, which now include FDA’s COVID-19-specific standards, 3 , 4 , 5 and/or are published without peer review. Misinformation from studies diverts resources from development and testing of more promising therapeutic candidates and has endangered lives. Ibuprofen, initially reported as unsafe for patients with COVID-19, resulted in a shortage of acetaminophen, endangering individuals for whom ibuprofen is contraindicated. Hydroxychloroquine initially reported as potentially effective for treatment of COVID-19 resulted in shortages for patients with autoimmune diseases. Remdesivir, in rigorous trials, showed decrease in duration of COVID-19, with greater effect given early. 6 Given the limited availability and safety data, the use outside clinical trials is currently approved only for severe disease. Vaccines typically take 10–15 years to develop. As of May 3, 2020, of nearly 100 vaccines in development, 8 are in trial. Several vaccines are projected to have emergency approval within 12–18 months, possibly as early as the end of the year, 7 still an eternity for this pandemic, yet too soon for long-term effectiveness and safety data. Antibody testing, necessary for diagnosis, therapeutics, and vaccine testing, has presented some of the greatest research challenges, including validation, timing, availability and prioritization of testing, interpretation of test results, and appropriate patient and societal actions based on results. 8 Relaxing physical distancing without data regarding test validity, duration, and strength of immunity to different strains of COVID-19 could have catastrophic results. Understanding population differences and disparities, which have been further exposed during this pandemic, is critical for response and long-term pandemic recovery. The “Equitable Data Collection and Disclosure on COVID-19 Act” calls for the CDC (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention) and other HHS (United States Department of Health & Human Services) agencies to publicly release racial and demographic information ( https://bass.house.gov/sites/bass.house.gov/files/Equitable%20Data%20Collection%20and%20Dislosure%20on%20COVID19%20Act_FINAL.pdf )

Trusted sources of up-to-date, easily accessible information must be identified (e.g., WHO https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/global-research-on-novel-coronavirus-2019-ncov , CDC https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nCoV/hcp/index.html , and for children AAP (American Academy of Pediatrics) https://www.aappublications.org/cc/covid-19 ) and should comment on quality of data and provide strategies and crisis standards to guide clinical practice.

Long-term, lessons learned from research during this pandemic could benefit the research enterprise worldwide beyond the pandemic and during other PHE/disasters with strategies for balancing multiple novel approaches and high-quality, time-efficient, cost-effective research. This challenge, at least in part, can be met by appropriate study design, collaboration, patient registries, automated data collection, artificial intelligence, data sharing, and ongoing consideration of appropriate regulatory approval processes. In addition, research to develop and evaluate innovative strategies and technologies to improve access to care, management of health and disease, and quality, safety, and cost effectiveness of care could revolutionize healthcare and healthcare systems. During PHE/disasters, crisis standards for research should be considered along with ongoing and just-in-time PHE/disaster training for researchers willing to share information that could be leveraged at time of crisis. A dedicated funded core workforce of PHE/disaster researchers and funded infrastructure should be considered, potentially as a consortium of networks, that includes physician-scientists, basic scientists, social scientists, mental health providers, global health experts, epidemiologists, public health experts, engineers, information technology experts, economists and educators to strategize, consult, review, monitor, interpret studies, guide appropriate clinical use of data, and inform decisions regarding effective use of resources for PHE/disaster research.

Differences between adult and pediatric COVID-19, the need for pediatric research

As reported by the CDC, from February 12 to April 2, 2020, of 149,760 cases of confirmed COVID-19 in the United States, 2572 (1.7%) were children aged <18 years, similar to published rates in China. 9 Severe illness has been rare. Of 749 children for whom hospitalization data is available, 147 (20%) required hospitalization (5.7% of total children), and 15 of 147 required ICU care (2.0%, 0.58% of total). Of the 95 children aged <1 year, 59 (62%) were hospitalized, and 5 (5.3%) required ICU admission. Among children there were three deaths. Despite children being relatively spared by COVID-19, spread of disease by children, and consequences for their health and pediatric healthcare are potentially profound with immediate and long-term impact on all of society.

We have long been aware of the importance and value of pediatric research on children, and society. COVID-19 is no exception and highlights the imperative need for a pediatrician-scientist workforce. Understanding differences in epidemiology, susceptibility, manifestations, and treatment of COVID-19 in children can provide insights into this pathogen, pathogen–host interactions, pathophysiology, and host response for the entire population. Pediatric clinical registries of COVID-infected, COVID-exposed children can provide data and specimens for immediate and long-term research. Of the 1133 COVID-19 studies on ClinicalTrials.gov, 202 include children aged ≤17 years. Sixty-one of the 681 interventional trials include children. With less diagnostic testing and less pediatric research, we not only endanger children, but also adults by not identifying infected children and limiting spread by children.

Pediatric considerations and challenges related to treatment and vaccine research for COVID-19 include appropriate dosing, pediatric formulation, and pediatric specific short- and long-term effectiveness and safety. Typically, initial clinical trials exclude children until safety has been established in adults. But with time of the essence, deferring pediatric research risks the health of children, particularly those with special needs. Considerations specific to pregnant women, fetuses, and neonates must also be addressed. Childhood mental health in this demographic, already struggling with a mental health pandemic prior to COVID-19, is now further challenged by social disruption, food and housing insecurity, loss of loved ones, isolation from friends and family, and exposure to an infodemic of pandemic-related information. Interestingly, at present mental health visits along with all visits to pediatric emergency departments across the United States are dramatically decreased. Understanding factors that mitigate and worsen psychiatric symptoms should be a focus of research, and ideally will result in strategies for prevention and management in the long term, including beyond this pandemic. Social well-being of children must also be studied. Experts note that the pandemic is a perfect storm for child maltreatment given that vulnerable families are now socially isolated, facing unemployment, and stressed, and that children are not under the watch of mandated reporters in schools, daycare, and primary care. 10 Many states have observed a decrease in child abuse reports and an increase in severity of emergency department abuse cases. In the short term and long term, it will be important to study the impact of access to care, missed care, and disrupted education during COVID-19 on physical and cognitive development.

Training and supporting pediatrician-scientists, such as through NIH physician-scientist research training and career development programs ( https://researchtraining.nih.gov/infographics/physician-scientist ) at all stages of career, as well as fostering research for fellows, residents, and medical students willing to dedicate their research career to, or at least understand implications of their research for, PHE/disasters is important for having an ongoing, as well as a just-in-time surge pediatric-focused PHE/disaster workforce. In addition to including pediatric experts in collaborations and consortiums with broader population focus, consideration should be given to pediatric-focused multi-institutional, academic, industry, and/or government consortiums with infrastructure and ongoing funding for virtual training programs, research teams, and multidisciplinary oversight.

The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on research and research in response to the pandemic once again highlights the importance of research, challenges of research particularly during PHE/disasters, and opportunities and resources for making research more efficient and cost effective. New paradigms and models for research will hopefully emerge from this pandemic. The importance of building sustained PHE/disaster research infrastructure and a research workforce that includes training and funding for pediatrician-scientists and integrates the pediatrician research workforce into high-quality research across demographics, supports the pediatrician-scientist workforce and pipeline, and benefits society.

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Department of Pediatrics, Division of Emergency Medicine, Boston Children’s Hospital, Boston, MA, USA

Debra L. Weiner

Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA

Department of Pediatrics, University of Wisconsin School of Medicine and Public Health, Madison, WI, USA

Vivek Balasubramaniam

Department of Pediatrics and Division of Neonatology, Maria Fareri Children’s Hospital at Westchester Medical Center, New York Medical College, Valhalla, NY, USA

Shetal I. Shah

Division of General Pediatrics, Children’s Hospital Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, USA

Joyce R. Javier

Keck School of Medicine, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, USA

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All authors made substantial contributions to conception and design, data acquisition and interpretation, drafting the manuscript, and providing critical revisions. All authors approve this final version of the manuscript.

Pediatric Policy Council

Scott C. Denne, MD, Chair, Pediatric Policy Council; Mona Patel, MD, Representative to the PPC from the Academic Pediatric Association; Jean L. Raphael, MD, MPH, Representative to the PPC from the Academic Pediatric Association; Jonathan Davis, MD, Representative to the PPC from the American Pediatric Society; DeWayne Pursley, MD, MPH, Representative to the PPC from the American Pediatric Society; Tina Cheng, MD, MPH, Representative to the PPC from the Association of Medical School Pediatric Department Chairs; Michael Artman, MD, Representative to the PPC from the Association of Medical School Pediatric Department Chairs; Shetal Shah, MD, Representative to the PPC from the Society for Pediatric Research; Joyce Javier, MD, MPH, MS, Representative to the PPC from the Society for Pediatric Research.

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Correspondence to Debra L. Weiner .

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Weiner, D.L., Balasubramaniam, V., Shah, S.I. et al. COVID-19 impact on research, lessons learned from COVID-19 research, implications for pediatric research. Pediatr Res 88 , 148–150 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41390-020-1006-3

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Received : 07 May 2020

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Published : 16 June 2020

Issue Date : August 2020

DOI : https://doi.org/10.1038/s41390-020-1006-3

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Small and medium enterprises (SMEs) in a pandemic: A systematic review of pandemic risk impacts, coping strategies and resilience

Michael odei erdiaw-kwasie.

a Business & Accounting Discipline, Faculty of Arts & Society, Charles Darwin University, NT, 0810, Australia

Matthew Abunyewah

b The Australasian Centre for Resilience Implementation for Sustainable Communities, Faculty of Health, Charles Darwin University, Darwin, NT, 0909, Australia

Salifu Yusif

c College of Science and Engineering, College of Medicine and Dentistry, James Cook University, Townsville, QLD, 4811, Australia

Patrick Arhin

d Department of Spatial Planning, Dortmund University, Dortmund, Germany

Associated Data

No data was used for the research described in the article.

Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) are particularly vulnerable to pandemics. Therefore, resilience and adaptation to shocks from pandemics such as COVID-19 are urgently needed. However, despite some coping strategies already in place among SMEs, research on their nature and effectiveness is limited. Thus, it remains unclear how effectively and sustainably documented coping strategies reduce SMEs' vulnerability and increase their resilience to pandemic risk. This article reviews academic literature for evidence of pandemic risk impacts on SMEs, coping strategies in response to these impacts, and the degree to which these strategies reduce SMEs' vulnerability and increase their resilience. According to the literature review, seven essential pandemic risk impacts were identified for SMEs - human movement restrictions, financial constraints, operational challenges, logistics difficulties, delayed business reopening, short-term policy focus and tacit knowledge workers. The study also outlined eleven critical coping strategies, notably structural or physical and behavioural changes. Study analysis reveals that resilience research among SMEs is predominantly conceptual with limited empirical evidence. To conclude, this study urges more adaptation research focused on developing new forms of pandemic risk education for SMEs addressing their complexities.

1. Introduction

Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) have become iconic in the pandemic discourse because of their conspicuous vulnerability [ 1 , 2 ]. There has been a significant impact on organisations and people worldwide due to pandemics. Different industries have experienced different impacts, and these impacts are far-reaching. In nearly all countries, the COVID-19 pandemic has affected diverse sectors of the economy to varying degrees [ 3 ]. This explains why the COVID-19 pandemic, while boosting e-commerce adoption and increasing sales for SMEs in Information Technology (IT), also negatively affected SMEs' key activities such as transport, retail trade, accommodation, and food services, real estate, and other personal services (entertainment and recreation activities, hairdressing, etc.) [ 4 , 5 ]. Furthermore, new data indicate that lockdown rules and interventions in different locations affected SMEs differently during the pandemic, including in urban and regional areas [ 6 ]. Most of the reviewed articles focused on service-based SMEs as the most impacted group [ 1 ]. This review follows the European Commission's definition of SMEs, which is enterprises with less than 250 employees [ 6 ]. SMEs can further be classified as microenterprises (less than 10 employees), small enterprises (10–49 employees), and medium-sized enterprises (50–249 employees), and all these groups were considered in this study.

The COVID-19 crisis that has exposed SMEs to greater vulnerability than their larger counterparts have, in many cases, placed SMEs at a disadvantage [ [7] , [8] , [9] ]. This disproportionate impact is attributed to several factors. SMEs are overrepresented in sectors most affected by the crisis, particularly those that require personal contact, such as tourism, entertainment and recreation activities, hairdressing, and real estate [ 10 , 11 ]. In addition, SMEs often have smaller cash buffers and weaker supply chains [ 12 , 13 ]; limited supply chain capabilities [ 14 , 15 ]; lag in the adoption of new technologies and tools [ 8 , 12 ], and difficulty adapting their business operations to the current environment [ 2 , 7 ]. Policymakers and researchers have looked for ways to improve their resilience as the COVID-19 pandemic has become a more significant burden for SMEs. SME adaptation can be improved by carefully designing strategic coping strategies to sense and respond to the disruptive and unpredictable business environment accelerated by COVID-19.

SMEs’ status as the least adaptable to pandemics makes them a particularly suitable group to study the effectiveness of resilience policies and practices. An increasing body of research is devoted to assessing SMEs' vulnerability to pandemics and their ability to cope or adapt [ 16 , 17 ]. Nonetheless, coping capacities do not automatically translate into effective, sustainable resilience policies and plans [ 18 , 19 ]. In addition, the ability to cope does not always translate into concrete resilience actions in SMEs, particularly those with institutional, capacity, and cultural constraints [ 20 , 21 ]. Due to this, it remains unclear how effectively and sustainably documented coping strategies decrease the vulnerability of SMEs and increase their resilience to pandemic risks.

The purpose of our research was to identify those empirical and theoretical studies that examined pandemic risks, coping strategies, and resilience in the context of SMEs. Even though numerous studies have been conducted, their results are inconsistent, implying a fragmented, inconclusive, and multi-faceted approach to COVID-19 pandemic risks, coping strategies, and resilience. In the years since COVID-19 hit, the field has grown exponentially and is expected to continue to develop as a place for theorising, empirical investigation, and methodological research. An SLR has the advantage of adopting a replicable, robust, and transparent process [ 22 , 23 ] to evaluate the field's current state and synthesize divergent studies pertaining to pandemic risks and resilience building in SME research. In this SLR, both categories of papers were included, consistent with previous systematic reviews [ 22 ]. Consequently, our research can fill important theoretical lacunae and bring together a field that has been fragmented and inadequately defined. In this study, we assess and synthesize literature-based theoretical and conceptual foundations, identify dominant content issues, and define outcomes. Three research questions guide our analysis.

• 1. What are the pandemic risk impacts on SMEs?
• 2. What are the coping strategies of SMEs for pandemic risk impacts?
• 3. To what extent can these coping interventions reduce SMEs' vulnerability and increase their resilience to pandemic risk impacts?

There are three main strengths of our review. First, by focusing on systematic reviews, we are able to summarise findings more comprehensively than by consulting individual original studies. A key feature of this SLR is that it formally categorizes these key themes according to their specific fields of activity and categories, which are not covered in other reviews. Second, by synthesising findings across all included studies and according to the pandemic risks-coping strategy-resilience nexus among SMEs, we provide a clear, detailed and unique summary of the current state of evidence and knowledge gaps concerning how coping strategies may influence SMEs' resilience to pandemic risks. Researchers, policymakers, and business owners can benefit from this summary. Furthermore, it provides direction for future research within the academic community.

The paper proceeds as follows. Section 2 presents the motivation for the study. A description of the method is presented in section 3 . Then, section 4 captures the study results, while section 5 discusses the results. Finally, findings and recommendations are outlined in Section 6 .

2. Motivation of the study

Several studies prior to COVID-19 examined various factors and their implications on SMEs and their performance [ 24 , 25 ]. As evident from COVID-19, these studies often lack evidence of how SMEs adapt to pandemics and other economic shocks and sustain their adaptation. While economic research on pandemic effects is sparse, there are similarities in their worldwide distribution and death patterns. One of the shocks of COVID-19 is its rippling effect across businesses, especially SMEs. The COVID-19 crisis means businesses must adapt to new environmental conditions in the short term and deal with an unintended cultural shift in the long term [ 26 ]. Despite the vast array of literature on the issue, there is no comprehensive review of pandemic risks and coping strategies among SMEs after COVID-19 hit. To date, existing empirical and theoretical studies have often narrowed the focus on either a subset of pandemic risks (e.g. financial risk) or coping strategies. Studies in this stream of literature did not follow systematic procedures and tended to draw on a limited range of sources. Even though such studies contribute to understanding how SMEs cope with pandemic shocks in the business space, the broad and separate scope of the reviews means that a holistic picture of the issue is still lacking. Also, some of these studies have identified various actors pertaining to coping strategies and provided avenues for exploring how such strategies address pandemic shocks in a specific organisational context. However, COVID-19 was not a specific focus of these review studies. The few early review studies focused on COVID-19 are purely health-related articles and fail to offer the business dimension of the debate [ 27 , 28 ]. Several other studies have also focused solely on the pandemic risks posed to large businesses [ [29] , [30] , [31] , [32] ]. This is problematic as scholars and policymakers researching pandemic risk and coping strategies among SMEs would have to either limit themselves to a single-facet pandemic risk and coping strategies among SMEs or face the difficult task of navigating through the existing fragmented literature to inform future research and policy.

In contrast to previous studies, our systematic review focuses only on studies identifying the pandemic risk-coping strategy nexus in the SME content. Additionally, peer-reviewed journals published from March 2019 to February 2022 are included to provide the most complete and up-to-date accounts of recent research. Recent years have seen an increase in high-quality studies in this area. As a result, this systematic review is the first to account for the pandemic risk-coping strategy nexus, which could affect the decisions of millions of SMEs each year. It is understood, even from an anecdotal standpoint, that COVID-19 poses unwavering risks of unimaginable scale to businesses operating on limited resources, such as SMEs. However, the extent of these risk factors was unclear/unknown, as were the coping strategies adopted by these SMEs. As demonstrated above, this study aimed to systematically identify these risk factors and the coping strategies SMEs adopt to remain in business.

Drawing from Table 1 , the literature has begun identifying how coping capacity is translated into resilience action in SMEs. A key element of this research strand is the role of governance, institutions, resources, and capacity and SME owners’ perceptions of pandemic risks. This explains whether coping strategies are implemented effectively (considering local environmental and socio-economic circumstances) and sustainably (in the sense that interventions will continue over time). A need exists to understand how pandemic risks manifest in SMEs, what coping interventions are implemented, and whether these interventions reduce vulnerability and build resilience.

Research gaps and study contributions.

This systematic review followed the PRISMA guidelines [ 40 , 41 ]. The process adopted for this systematic review were search strategy, screening, and data analysis.

3.1. Planning and brainstorming

Prior to the study, a review panel was formed consisting of the authorship team with expertise in circular economy, waste management, and sustainability. The purpose of the review panel was to discuss the boundaries of urban mining research, define the scope and research questions for the study and establish the need for and contribution of the study. The brainstorming session lasted 45–60 min, and all emerging ideas were noted. This was followed by a further discussion to consolidate the main ideas into a large idea map with clearly stated research questions and study contributions.

3.2. Search strategy

Following PRISMA, relevant databases (Scopus, EBSCOhost, ScienceDirect and ProQuest) were thoroughly searched to establish evidence-based knowledge for articles that focused on SMEs and the COVID-19 pandemic and general unexpected disruption and shocks to economies and SMEs published from March 2019–February 2022. Specifically, this systematic review identified and collated all studies related to the COVID-19 pandemic and how SMEs responded. The Scopus, EBSCOhost, ScienceDirect and ProQuest databases were used because they are known to contain high-quality peer-reviewed journals and are linked with a significant number of publishers [ 42 ].

Given the above objective, only articles that reported on the impact of COVID-19 on SMEs and how they responded to them were considered to meet the inclusion criteria. The following keywords and phrases were combined in the search: “Pandemic risks in SMEs”, “Digital transformation among SMEs in pandemics”, “SMEs in pandemics”, “SMEs response to pandemics”, “Coping strategies for SMEs during pandemics”, “SME resilience”. The search strategy returned 2430 records. The initial result for the search encompasses 931 in ScienceDirect, 608 in Scopus, 453 in EBSCOhost, and 430 in ProQuest.

3.3. Screening process

After 2430 results were screened and validated by the authors, the records were exported to the Mendeley Reference Manager Version 2.84 to assist in study selection. During the first phase of the screening process, 2027 records were excluded from the study (See Fig. 1 ). This includes duplicates (n = 59), conference proceedings/papers (n = 492), book chapters (n = 793), books (n = 648) and editorial (n = 35). A total of 403 papers qualified for the next screening stage by a set of criteria. The remaining articles were further screened using their titles and abstract, removing 103 articles.

In selecting the final articles to include in this review, inclusion criteria were set by the authors. Among these criteria include: 1) Fundamentally, SMEs focus on the context of dealing with an event that has had far-reaching health, economic and social consequences. 2) Be peer-reviewed 3) Written in English and/or written in a non-English language but has corresponding English sections. 4 ) Has employed any acceptable/recognised research methodology, 5) From any region/country. The authors contend these criteria would allow the inclusion of as many relevant articles as possible, given the fragmented nature of available scholarship. Studies of the following characteristics were excluded, given the focus and objective of this exhaustive study: 1) Non-SME but pandemic impact-focused studies, 2) SME studies that did not focus on pandemic impact, 3) Papers published prior to March 2019, even if they were SME focused, 4) SME pandemic-focused but with no English language version/components. Subjecting the papers to the set criteria, 76 were analysed. The authors then developed a coding scheme to help answer the research questions.

3.4. Quality Checks

Each of the 45 articles identified as meeting the inclusion and exclusion criteria was independently assessed by two researchers using the six quality assessment checks suggested by Abdallah et al. (2020). The quality assessment criteria included i) credibility and sufficiency of datasets, ii) scope of work distinctly identified, iii) clarity of the research questions/objectives, iv) appropriateness of methodology adopted, v) quality of analysis and critical discussions and vi) study contributions to urban mining literature. Two researchers read all the articles thoroughly, and each paper was assigned a score of 1 when the criteria were fulfilled, 0.75 for major fulfilment, 0.50 for partial fulfilment, 0.25 for poor fulfilment, and zero when the criteria were not met. Only articles that attained a score of 4.5 or higher were considered and included in the study. The final scores were validated by an external researcher. Overall, all 45 articles achieved the recommended cut-off score.

4. Study results

In this section, the three research questions are addressed in turn before discussing the overall findings in the discussion section. Table 2 presents the research method adopted by the papers included in this paper. Also, three overarching themes addressing the research questions emerged from the 76 papers.

The distribution of research methods used in the studies included in this study.

The very nature of the COVID-19 pandemic made it nearly impossible for any empirical studies to be conducted. However, online research tools enabled researchers to collect empirical data, and any unwillingness of research subjects/population is understandable given alarming concerns over residual public health concerns, such as stress emanating from lockdowns and other restrictions imposed by states to contain the rapid spread of COVID-19. The highest number/percentage of included papers were recorded in the category of literature review and conceptual papers at 21 (29%). Quantitative and qualitative studies papers constituted 31 (41%) and 16 (20%). In addition, mixed-method studies and systematic reviews constituted 4 (5%) each (negligible).

4.1. What are the pandemic risk impacts on SMEs

Unlike start-up models, SMEs are generally structured and designed by local businesses, which depend on locals for their sustainability. Table 3 presents the pandemic risk impacts identified in the reviewed articles for this study.

Taxonomy of COVID-19 risk impacts.

With limited resources and smaller supply chain facilities, SMEs operate on marginal profit, mainly for in-person buyers. As a result, when locals cannot move around due to lockdowns and other restrictions – travel restrictions, social distancing, and self-isolation – poor business-to-business relationships and weaker supply chain services become the orders of the day [ 31 , 58 , 65 , 66 ]. These resulted in cash flow pressure – poor sales from shutdowns, various event, accommodation, and travel booking cancellations, revenue decline and defaults of various payment contributions for service industries [ 65 , [67] , [68] , [69] , [70] , 94 , 110 ], resulting in operational difficulties [ 44 , 45 , 60 , 69 , 71 , 106 ] and logistical challenges [ 7 , 26 , 30 , [46] , [47] , [48] , 59 , 68 , [72] , [73] , [74] , [95] , [96] , [97] , [98] , [99] ]. Also, 17 (36%) of the 48 papers topping the list of pandemic risks demonstrate the vital role that the local environment within which SMEs operate, such as lockdowns and restrictions on the movement of people, play in their survival and resilience. Logistics in organisations focus on managing the flow of goods between production and consumption points to meet consumer and business requirements. Pandemic risks exacerbate employee layoffs, compound productivity challenges, and delay the reopening of closed businesses [ 60 , [75] , [76] , [77] , [78] ].

One other most salient SMEpandemic risk factor was the short-term government support measures in the context of policy directives. These support measures, among others, were hasty and heuristic in the early stages, focusing on immediate effect rather than structural and long-term focus [ 7 , 66 , 76 , 79 ]. Whilst these short-term focused policies have been criticised, their direct impact was positive [ 91 , [111] , [112] , [113] , [114] , [115] , [116] , [117] , [118] , [119] ]. For example, in developing countries, the absence of government support would have increased the failure rate of SMEs by 9.1% points, representing 4.6% of private-sector employment [ 12 ].

According to the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), COVID-19 - has brought catastrophic consequences across the globe [ 120 , 121 ]. The very nature of SMEs with limited resources implied they lacked the agility to transform their operations at the speed the pandemic travelled due to a lack of adoption of digital technologies [ 122 ]. However, the “new normal” would require businesses to undergo significant changes, including business and operational innovation, including online transformation [ 31 , 65 ]. For example, SMEs in the manufacturing industry generally lacked the adoption of digital technologies of Industry 4.0 [ 49 ] despite the high usage of digital channels, mainly social media [ 37 , 122 ]. This is primarily due to a lack of advanced technologies, lack of finance for investment, poor management vision, lack of clear returns on investment, and, overarchingly, lack of knowledge workers [ 37 , 61 , [80] , [81] , [82] ]. The few that adopted Industry 4.0 were driven by expected benefits, market opportunities, labour problems, customer requirements, competition, and quality image [ 123 ].

As a result, most SMEs in the production/manufacturing industry employed a “just-in-time” approach instead of any proactive risk management innovation and risk mitigation. For example, the agri-food business compromised its resilience to the realities of the pandemic [ 124 , 125 ]. This prevented SMEs from tapping into any benefits of digital technologies, leading to logistical challenges and demand [ 125 ].

4.2. What are the coping strategies of SMEs for pandemic risk impacts

The principal concern in the minds of businesses is how to develop strategies to cope and respond to the evolving situations of the pandemic or what is now popularly referred to as the “new normal”. The concepts of coping and resilience have widely been associated with human psychology. As applied to humans, on the one hand, coping has been referred to as the cognitive and behavioural approaches to dealing with and managing traumatic situations [ 126 , 127 ]. On the other hand, resilience is the ability of individuals to recover from traumatic or stressful situations or adversity [ 128 ]. These two concepts are not exclusive in their meaning in the broader sense. As a result, they have been used interchangeably to mean the same, given their strong relationship [ [129] , [130] , [131] , [132] ]. For example, Ambulkar et al. [ 133 ] used the two themes interchangeably when referring to “coping or that resilience [as] the ability of a firm to be alert to, adapt to and quickly respond to the changes brought about by supply chain disruption” (p.112). Table 4 captures our study's key pandemic coping strategies discussed in sampled literature.

SMEs pandemic coping strategies.

To cope with pandemics' rapid economic downturns and health and social consequences, SMEs need to adopt behaviours that involve considering a timely, purposeful change of capacity, commonly called organisational behaviour [ 141 ]. Forty-six papers associated several factors with SMEs' successful coping/adaptation in a pandemic or turbulent business environment. Salient among these factors were digital and technological adoption and adaptation, such as powerful mobile apps ( [44] , [45] , [46] , [47] , [48] , [49] ); [ 69 , [83] , [84] , [85] , 95 , [100] , [101] , [102] , 107 , 134 ]). This suggests that SMEs can remain highly competitive and agile and cope in this fast-paced, changing business environment based on limited knowledge and technological assets. The trajectory to digital technology adoption in SMEs begins with digital awareness, enquiries, collaboration, and transformation [ 85 ], as shown in Fig. 2 . For example, Germany's “Digital in NRW” offers several services, from informing people by demonstrating solutions in smart factories to discussing and designing digital solutions, which constitute SMEs' digital strategy and transformation roadmap [ 141 ].

Coping strategies of SMEs for pandemic risk impacts.

In contrast, few studies focus on strategy- as -practice, considering a broader range of pandemic risks. Among the reviewed studies, only dynamic capability is documented [ 9 ]. In this review, evidence was gathered to show that attention should not just be focused on addressing the effects of pandemic risks but should be given to a comprehensive, in-depth analysis of how strategy is formulated, planned, and implemented, making it a key business function. In addition, since it is a practical approach, a practice perspective enables SMEs to understand how their capabilities develop, change, and evolve, making strategy- as -practice (SAP) an integral part of their pandemic strategy.

The rest of the coping strategies are governments’ financial supports/packages [ 2 , 7 , 51 , 69 , 86 , 87 , 135 ], modification of business operations and new business models [ [53] , [54] , [55] , [56] , 85 , 102 , 103 , 107 [53–56, 85, 102, 103, 107]; improved internal/operational competence and realigning business strategies to firm strategies [ 55 , 57 , 92 , 104 ]; supply chain and business agilities [ 88 , 100 , 109 ]; and critical business transformation [ 55 , 105 , 107 ]. An operative business transformation implies the ability of firms to survive in a highly volatile environment.

4.3. How do coping strategies reduce SMEs' vulnerability and increase their resilience to pandemic risk impacts?

Only three studies defined coping/or resilience [ 135 , 141 , 142 ]. However, as applied to businesses, resilience is a shared consequence of SMEs' weaknesses, coping approaches, and capacities when faced with unfriendly business conditions [ 142 ]. Better still, businesses or organisations can weather external shocks and continue to operate [ 141 ]. Resilience can be achieved through collaboration [ 58 , 135 ], openness, victory, innovation, and durability [ 135 ]. Openness can potentially increase a firm's active competencies, effectively improving its resilience when faced with economic downturns such as one brought about by COVID-19 [ 143 ]. It comprised end-to-end transparency with key stakeholders in all-channel communication to maintain a healthy business relationship using digital technologies such as social media. This coping strategy also requires a high level of digital transformation-enabled agility to dynamically engage stakeholders to meet the changing and uncertain business operating environments. Whilst the path seemed challenging for SMEs, the need to meet the present and build for future innovation to achieve competitive advantage is prominent.

SME coping strategies tend to be autonomous and reactive. They primarily focus on changes in behaviour and internal business structures and tend to focus on everyday pandemic challenges rather than long-term resilience, even though the latter may justify a particular intervention. At least in the current pandemic risk landscape, many of the reviewed strategies indicate high coping capabilities and emphasise the importance of sharing and spreading risk, notably through social networks and revenue diversification [ 100 , 105 ]. However, there is evidence that coping strategies can reduce SME resilience, for instance, when savings are used, or assets are sold to restore operations after pandemics [ 135 , 136 ].

Innovation involves investing in transferrable skills and resources from individual to organisational levels with candidate areas such as business transactions support and circular economy [ 135 ]. Ali and Suleiman further found that supply chain engineering, agility, and risk management culture are necessary conditions for actual resilience [ 58 ]. It is evident in this review that factors contributing to resilience are sparsely distributed. There was a woefully inadequate definition/elaboration on the concepts of “resilience” in ex-ante literature. To successfully journey through this cycle, SMEs must take advantage of readily available resources to quickly respond to the changes in crises whilst transforming these existing resources into products and services capable of killing customer pain points. Furthermore, after killing customer pain points, SMEs can mobilise additional/new resources and knowledge from their network that facilitate the implementation of major changes in their business models [ 103 ].

To Teece and colleagues [ 143 ], the firm's capacity to innovate, adapt to change and create change favourable to customers and competitors offers the firm a competitive advantage. Dynamic capabilities result from activities that allow conscious and skilful modification of a firm's strategic potential. They are key drivers of a firm's value creation, competitive advantage, and above-average performance in changing environments [ 84 ]. Adaptive strategies need to sense and respond to changes in external business conditions through internal insight. Therefore, the strategy inherently needs to be flexible and adaptable. Flexibility is generally related to systems' intrinsic property, enabling them to respond to changes within pre-established constraints [ 141 , 142 ]. Employee training [ 105 ], strategy- as -practice “through collective sensing” in an economic recession [ 93 ], and hygienic operations [ 105 ] are among other sparsely discovered factors of SMEs' pandemic coping strategic factors. Strategy- as -practice is a tacit practice concerned with regular actions organisations and employees undertake that result in strategic outcomes [ [144] , [145] , [146] ]. Strategy- as -practice thrives in business and organisational environments where knowledge, trust and innovation are recognised, resulting in the dynamic interplay of stability, adaptation and sustainability shaped by individual, organisational, and market contexts [ 147 ].

5. Discussion

Several articles in our review describe generic barriers to and enablers of coping strategies for pandemic risk impacts. Still, they do not assess the resilience success or failure of such interventions within the SMEs they studied. This is partly due to the lack of longitudinal data to enable such a long-term evaluation. Although SMEs' coping interventions are not explicitly evaluated, studies report positive and negative aspects. The effectiveness of the coping strategy is determined by its ability to reduce SMEs' vulnerability and increase their resilience to pandemic risks, as indicated in this review. SMEs' resilience can be enhanced through participatory and collaborative interventions incorporating local knowledge and promoting culturally appropriate measures. SME resilience can be optimised by promoting participatory coping interventions to maximise their buy-in for resilience [ 57 , 71 ].

The coping interventions used by SMEs varied widely. This variety of responses reflects the diversity and complexity of SMEs and their long histories of resilience [ 5 , [148] , [149] ], which have positive implications for the future [ 5 , 148 ]. Yet whether these diverse coping mechanisms are sustainable and effective remains unclear. The reviewed studies note generic barriers to SMEs' coping strategies when faced with pandemic risk impacts. Still, none explicitly evaluate their sustainability and longevity or suitability for local contexts, even though research recognises the need for context-specific solutions [ 150 ].

According to our analysis, three factors may limit the effectiveness of current coping strategies for SMEs' resilience. Documented coping strategies emphasise only the business's most obvious and direct pandemic risk impacts, such as digital disruptions, rather than equally emphasising indirect and abstract effects, such as disruptions to organisational culture [ 151 ]. The second observation is that SMEs prefer hard-engineered coping measures in response to pandemic risks, as other studies report [ 56 , 61 , 81 ], despite their well-documented shortcomings [ 56 , 152 ]. Thirdly, SMEs' resilience depends on strong social networks and local knowledge, which are fundamental for coping with social change. Past experiences can indeed be valuable to SMEs, both in driving transformative actions and managing pandemic shocks, as reported by Mariani et al. [ 151 ] and others [ 141 , 152 ].

In summary, the review study finds that most documented coping strategies among SMEs are reactive, similar to Klewitz and colleagues' observations [ 153 ]. Therefore, we share concerns about the long-term effectiveness of pandemic coping strategies among SMEs and support the call for longer-term monitoring and evaluation of SMEs' coping strategies [ 148 , 154 ]. As other studies have suggested [ 52 , 155 ], there are also enabling factors, including participatory approaches that integrate local knowledge, that may enhance the resilience of SMEs.

6. Conclusion and future research

6.1. conclusion.

SMEs remain the backbone of any economy and significantly contribute to employment and economic growth. However, they remain highly vulnerable among the different enterprise-size classes. The COVID-19 pandemic proved this. Like other institutions, SMEs were caught unprepared, exposing all sorts of vulnerabilities. The 76 papers examined in this study used a multi-stage screening tool with data from several sources.

The findings of this study confirmed three overarching themes – pandemic risk factors that affect SMEs, strategies they devised (coping strategies) to contain pandemic risks, and coping interventions to build resilience against pandemic risks. The most salient pandemic risks that SMEs suffered were logistical challenges - the commercial activity of coordinating the transportation of goods to customers. Technology adoption and digital transformation topped the list for coping strategies, demonstrating the strong need for SMEs to begin thinking of digital technologies' inevitable role in modern business survival and continuity. This is especially true if SMEs are to cope with any future global shocks, as the COVID-19 pandemic has shown. Particularly, SMEs must explore technology opportunities by digitally transforming their operations. Also, as broad and encompassing as these factors are and organised under the two themes, they will serve as the starting point for an exploratory trajectory that advances the understanding of SMEs in pandemics. A notable takeaway from the findings of this study is for SMEs, law/policymakers, and business think tanks to begin the discussion about coping strategies and business continuity in the wake of pandemics and or disasters.

SMEs are integral to a broader economic system, and a return to pre-crisis normalcy will require more than simple remedial strategies. SMEs' ability to adjust and respond to crises depends primarily on their flexibility and adaptability. According to the study's findings, SMEs' ability to leverage network resources and knowledge is key to strengthening their resilience during times of crisis. Creating opportunities allows SMEs to innovate and grow in a challenging and uncertain environment. Our review concludes that survival, adaptation, and innovation are all coexisting strategies that can build SMEs' resilience, leaving them less dependent and vulnerable.

6.2. Limitations and future research

The analysis of limitations of prior research led us to identify possible areas for future research in the field of international small businesses. It is expected that SMEs will continue to suffer the repercussions of COVID-19 in the coming years. As a result, this section offers academics a valuable starting point. The following are three possible research avenues for scholars to explore.

The heterogeneity of the systematic reviews and the relatively small proportion of studies reporting meta-analysis findings prevented us from conducting a meta-meta-analysis of the results across reviews. It will be necessary to demonstrate a causal link between pandemic risks and SME resilience through additional research, as well as to explore other factors that interact with the relationship described here. Similarly, as more evidence on the impact of COVID-19 evolves, we contend that an increase in longitudinal qualitative studies will drive the generation of emerging themes that will propel a better understanding of the true impact of this pandemic to support targeted policy formulation intervention in the future.

Furthermore, although SMEs are extensively studied, a more tested and generalisable model of pro-SME pandemic resilience must be pursued to move the current discussion beyond its conceptual state. As a result, the study recommends research on extensive, multi-case and cross-sectional studies, even when further conceptual studies are still needed, especially for understudied research contexts. For example, comparing the resilience orientation of SMEs in different regions, examining the impact of COVID-19 on SMEs in different locations, or comparing coping strategies among SMEs in other areas could be interesting routes to the ongoing debate on SMEs and pandemics. By conducting such rigorous empirical studies, the new findings will ignite new debates and discussions on the topic that can guide future studies in this direction.

During the pandemic, SMEs were at risk of bankruptcy due to difficulties finding customers and rising costs of production and labour. In times of pandemic, the government can support SMEs in different ways to mitigate bankruptcy risks. A government could, for instance, increase their institutional capacity and support SMEs through its entrepreneurial ecosystem by providing early warning systems. There are, however, very few studies that examine the difference in response rate among sectoral SMEs towards bankruptcy risks. Research could be conducted on an intra-sectoral level to determine which SMEs are most likely to end up bankrupt during and after a pandemic. Qualitative information about managers' characteristics, as well as changes in governance or management style, could also be considered.

As revealed in this review, the field remains centred on theoretical perspectives traditionally associated with the analysis of SMEs, COVID-19 impacts, and coping strategies, such as expectancy theory and institutional theory, yet assessing the emotional reactions of top managers that ultimately shape an SME's coping strategy needs to engage concepts and theories derived from social science disciplines such as social psychology (e.g., Cognitive appraisal theory). Moreover, in light of the literature showing that small businesses can respond differently to the same crisis [ 156 ], cognitive appraisal theory may provide an innovative way of assessing the cognitive-emotional perceptions of events and how they impact coping behaviours. As a result, advancing the field will require the application of multidisciplinary and multi-theoretical perspectives that cross the borders of any single school of thought.

According to our previous discussion, single-country studies from developed nations focus on within-sample limitations, which provides a chance for research into organisations from developing nations. This study strongly encourages researchers to study this topic since successful coping strategies by SMEs in developed countries may not apply to SMEs in developing countries. In addition, future studies should consider developing standard scores that account for cross-country variations and enhance comparative analysis within/between developed and developing countries. Additionally, considering the prevalence of SMEs in these countries and their ability to effectively influence the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) agenda, future research must focus on how such a vulnerable sector can be prepared for pandemics. Therefore, future research should focus on SMEs in developing countries or compare SMEs in developing and developed countries to enrich the small business literature further.

In addition, COVID-19 was not yet fully under control at the time of our study. Policymakers and governments continue experimenting with targeted policies and various support measures considering COVID-19's continued evolution and metamorphosis. However, their long-term impacts still need to be tested. Therefore, as economies adjust to COVID-19 and evaluate the long-term effect of these measures on commerce, new themes are expected to emerge over time.

Financial declaration

No financial support for this review.

Author contribution statement

All authors listed have significantly contributed to the development and the writing of this article.

Data availability statement

Declaration of competing interest.

The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.

Acknowledgments

The authors sincerely thank Rachel Klesch (Academic & Research Librarian, CDU) for her diligent proofreading of this paper.

COVID-19: Implications for business in 2021

You’ve reached an archival page. please see our newest perspectives about the economic and business impact of coronavirus  and how to prepare for a postpandemic world., covid-19: briefing note #85, december 15, 2021, debriefing 2021 reveals the agenda for the coming year..

’Tis the season for McKinsey to look back, survey, and publish a variety of “state of” reports. This week, we took a measure of labor, economic opportunity, and education in the United States; examined logistics in India and grocery in China; and analyzed 12 key ways in which the world changed this year. In all regions and sectors, the COVID-19 pandemic shaped the story in 2021, and the recovery helps set priorities for 2022.

The labor mismatch in the United States has pushed private-sector wages to increase at more than double the long-term pre-COVID-19 growth rates, yet positions remain unfilled. Some underlying factors are directly related to the impact of the pandemic and may be temporary. But deeper structural shifts could have a longer-lasting impact. Companies seeking labor resilience should learn to measure risk, design bold interventions, and ensure strong executive-level support.

Our second American Opportunity Survey revealed that Americans are aware of the labor market changes: 49 percent of respondents said that most Americans have opportunities to find good jobs, up seven percentage points from March, when we first conducted our survey. Their biggest economic worry, by far, and a prime barrier to sustainable and inclusive growth? Access to healthcare and/or health insurance.

Taking a measure of US student achievement after pandemic-era school closures is a bleak business: students in majority-Black schools are five months behind where they would otherwise have been, both in math and reading. Students in majority-White schools are now just two months behind historical levels. If current trends persist, historically disadvantaged students could remain up to a grade level behind their peers. Educational systems can invest now to ensure all students have the chance to recover from the pandemic’s many setbacks.

The impact of the COVID-19 crisis shows that India’s logistics sector needs structural reforms more than ever . In the warehousing function, companies could consider shrinking their product mix, allocating more inventory to essential items, and introducing processes to reduce levels of human contact. In the transport function, key steps include using efficient multimodal transportation more extensively.

McKinsey’s report on the state of China’s grocery industry reveals a paradox: this huge market leads in online commerce and is growing rapidly but is also highly unproductive, with the lowest sales per square meter in the world. The report covers topics including emerging trends that will shape the competitive landscape, the path to profitability for different retail models, and the sweeping impact of changing consumer preferences and technology.

In a year-end look at how the pandemic has reset the ways we live, work, and do business , the McKinsey Global Institute  showcases 12 of the most thought-provoking charts from our research over the past year. The rise of the Asian consumer, the changing workplace, and pandemic-era changes that could yield higher productivity are among the topics in focus.

No discussion of 2021 would be complete without a debrief on the highlight of the year: the release of the COVID-19 vaccines. On the Inside the Strategy Room podcast, Pfizer’s CFO Frank D’Amelio  discusses the decision to put $2 billion of capital at risk and never look at the business case during development.

Here are some of this week’s other key findings from our research:

• On The McKinsey Podcast , Knut Alicke and Dan Swan, partners in McKinsey’s Operations Practice, describe the main cost, labor, and transportation issues facing CEOs and supply-chain managers . They suggest ways executives can build resilience into their supply-chain strategies for when the next major shake-up arrives.
• In McKinsey’s Global Survey  on AI adoption , 56 percent of respondents report AI adoption in at least one function, up from 50 percent in 2020, with the greatest increases coming from companies in emerging economies. Nearly two-thirds of respondents say their companies’ investments in AI will continue to increase over the next three years.
• Latinos make up 18.4 percent of the US population and 17.3 percent of the US labor force, a share forecast to rise more than 30 percent by 2060. Latinos start more businesses and have higher rates of intergenerational mobility, yet remain far from equal with non-Latino White Americans .

This week, we feature three books in our Author Talks  series. Simon Mundy, Moral Money editor at the Financial Times , discusses his new book, Race for Tomorrow: Survival, Innovation and Profit on the Front Lines of the Climate Crisis (William Collins, January 2022). The book relates the personal tales of people around the world dealing with the effects of climate change.

David Schonthal, professor of strategy, innovation, and entrepreneurship at Northwestern University’s Kellogg School of Management, discusses his new book, The Human Element: Overcoming the Resistance That Awaits New Ideas (Wiley, 2021). Innovators should consider factors including how much energy has to be expended to adopt a new idea and what emotions it brings up in those who interact with it.

Rob Cross, the Edward A. Madden Professor of Global Leadership at Babson College, discusses his new work, Beyond Collaboration Overload: How to Work Smarter, Get Ahead, and Restore Your Well-Being (Harvard Business Review Press, 2021). Through roughly 800 interviews with high performers, Cross identifies what makes collaboration effective and what is just a big time-suck.

This briefing note was edited by Katy McLaughlin, a senior editor in the Southern California office.

COVID-19: Briefing note #84, December 8, 2021

The virus is not the only thing with a talent for transformation..

If you could say anything positive about the COVID-19 pandemic—and its latest twist, the Omicron variant—it might be that it forced a lot of people to get better at accepting and acting upon the need for change. This week, we looked at three ways in which business leaders are transforming their organizations, as well as changes reshaping mortgages, infrastructure, healthcare, and the workplace.

CEOs today face tough operational obstacles , including difficulty in finding workers and an upward price spiral for goods. The prices for basic commodities including steel, semiconductors, and natural gas have risen, as have container-shipping costs. The need for decarbonization adds a long-term challenge to the total picture. To get ahead of operational difficulties, leaders can set up resilient, risk-tolerant supply-chain structures, double down on digitization, and achieve real-time visibility and systematic responses to external developments.

Business building is one of the top strategic priorities for organizations—double the share of recent years. That’s because business leaders expect half of their companies’ revenues five years from now to come from products, services, or businesses that do not yet exist, according to the latest McKinsey Global Survey  on new-business building . This year’s survey provides insights to move organizations up the learning curve faster.

McKinsey talked to more than 350 senior executives about their plans for transforming sales, general, and administrative activities . Of the executives surveyed, 91 percent are planning to maintain or increase investment in digital technology in the coming years. More than half of respondents (compared with just over a quarter last year) said remote working has increased productivity compared with pre-COVID-19 levels. This boost is leading organizations to aspire to an average of 20 percent savings through optimizing real-estate portfolios.

Before we go any deeper into the topic of change, let’s admit that it’s not easy. On the McKinsey on Government podcast, McKinsey senior partner Kirk Rieckhoff discusses why change is so hard  for systems and organizations, how to put teams together that can embrace a transformation, and the steps that lead to success.

The mortgage industry has been gradually adopting technology to streamline processes. But there is still an opportunity for investors to help make getting mortgages easier , faster, and cheaper, with increased digitization and automation, and through offerings from nonbank lenders, next-generation subservicers, nonqualified mortgage lenders, and companies bundling home-buying services.

The December edition of Voices on Infrastructure explores the transformational power of the Infrastructure and Investment Jobs Act and the EU Green Deal . The collection includes articles about how rail-industry leaders optimize project development  to meet changing environmental, social, and governance expectations, and the opportunities for infrastructure investors to modernize transportation  and help Europe meet its decarbonization goals .

Healthcare payers can take a more active role in the healthcare of members  with comprehensive care models that are expected to eventually lower total medical costs.

Parents are transforming the workplace in a way unlikely to please employers: by leaving it. Employers are wise to offer parents creative flexibility  in how, when, and where they do their jobs. Employers can improve health equity  by ensuring benefits are easy to access and understand, destigmatizing receiving care, and exploring benefits that help with basic needs such as housing and transportation.

• Consumers are enthusiastic about micromobility , with almost 70 percent stating that they were willing to use micromobility vehicles for their commute—though with lots of regional variability.
• Integrated evidence-generation plans (IEPs) are being developed by a handful of life-sciences companies. IEPs take into account the evidence needs of different functions and geographies across the life cycle of an asset, and then collaboratively determine how to meet them using a broad range of methods and data.
• The United Kingdom is Europe’s leading biotech hub in breakthrough life-sciences start-ups. UK biotechs can continue transforming their global impact by leveraging their uniquely data-rich environment and increasing collaboration and collective growth.
• On The McKinsey Podcast , McKinsey partner Shelley Stewart III discusses opportunities to serve Black consumers  with housing, healthcare, grocery stores, and brands that fit their needs.

Our Author Talks series features Pulitzer Prize winner and New York Times editorial-board member Farah Stockman. In her book, American Made: What Happens to People When Work Disappears (Penguin Random House, October 2021), Stockman follows three workers laid off from manufacturing jobs that provided not only paychecks but also status, meaning, and the basis of connection to American life.

COVID-19: Briefing note #83, December 1, 2021

Part of any recovery is fixing the things that broke..

It’s exhilarating to think about creating new technology that will help build sustainable and inclusive growth. But this week, McKinsey delved into the less glamorous work of repairing what is hobbled, leaky, or damaged. Time and inertia have eroded the United States’ water system, while the COVID-19 pandemic did a number on global travel in both tourism-dependent regions such as Thailand and emerging markets where tourism is less developed.

The need for investment in the US water system  is at an unprecedented level. Among other problems, on average, 14 to 18 percent of total daily treated potable water in the United States is lost through leaks. Fortunately, an exciting set of technologies is making it possible to achieve water objectives more efficiently, while the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act includes significantly higher investment in desalination, water conservation, and water recycling. If players across the system are strategic, there is a unique opportunity to prepare the system to be resilient, safe, and affordable for the generations to come.

Countries that are heavily dependent on international tourism, such as Thailand, need to mend a revenue crater created by the pandemic. Passenger occupancy on international flights to Thailand dropped by 95 percent in September 2021 compared with the previous year, while hotels only filled 9 percent of their rooms. Thailand’s travel industry can seek growth  by bundling product offerings, promoting ecotourism and cultural tourism, and investing in infrastructure in destinations attractive to domestic tourists, among other options.

Countries where tourism is still being developed face a related, but different, set of repairs. In September 2020, Omar El Hamamsy took on the role of CEO of Orascom Development , a real-estate and hospitality multinational, when there was plenty to fix. It was six months into the COVID-19 pandemic, seven months after the sudden passing of the company’s previous CEO, and amid an 84 percent drop in the number of global international tourist arrivals. In an interview with McKinsey, Hamamsy discusses the unique challenges of managing the company’s properties located in emerging markets.

Here is some of this week’s other research:

• The latest issue of McKinsey on Investing examines how a multitude of industries were reshaped by the COVID-19 pandemic. In a collection of nine feature articles, 16 elaborate charts, and two pages of facts and figures with the power to surprise, the publication explores themes of interest to private-markets investors.
• Elevating clinical drug supply to best-in-class standards can deliver benefits including cost savings in clinical drug supply of 15 to 20 percent. Companies can explore new ways to achieve supply-chain flexibility in sourcing, employ advanced analytics for patient forecasting, and develop external partnerships with contract research organizations, among other strategies.
• Healthcare payers have an opportunity to improve nutrition and have a positive impact on health. Early evidence suggests that medically tailored meal programs lead to fewer emergency-room visits and admissions to hospitals and skilled-nursing facilities, as well as lower monthly medical spending.
• The accelerating global energy transition has implications for the oil-field-services-and-equipment sector . Players must act swiftly and pursue an informed strategy because waiting for the upswing is not an option in the long run.

Our Author Talks series features Wil Haygood, a journalist and Boadway Visiting Distinguished Scholar at Miami University. His new book Colorization: One Hundred Years of Black Films in a White World (Alfred A. Knopf, October 2021) examines a century of Black cinema history and the insights it offers into Black culture and civil rights in the United States.

COVID-19: Briefing note #82, November 24, 2021

The covid-19 pandemic locked us down, but in the future, we aim to fly..

After nearly two years of lockdowns, travel bans, and at-home school and work, there’s some poetic justice in the robust development of advanced air mobility. The industry, which includes more than 250 companies developing electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft, attracted more than $5.4 billion in investment in just the first nine months of 2021. By 2030, thousands of eVTOLs could be flying above cities, delivering both cargo and passengers. McKinsey’s video-rich package delves into advanced air mobility , where technology stands now, how it could play out, and what it means for the future of cities and society.

Three CEOs shared their companies’ visions for air mobility. Florian Reuter, CEO of aircraft manufacturer Volocopter, spoke to McKinsey  about the multirotor eVTOL two-seater aircraft his company plans to offer for commercial use in 2024. Bonny Simi, Joby Aviation’s head of air operations and people, talked with us about how air taxis may change where people live  and how they commute and travel. Joby’s eVTOL aircraft seats five people—a pilot and four passengers—and can travel at speeds of up to 200 miles per hour. And Daniel Wiegand, CEO of Lilium, explained how his company’s aircraft are designed  to minimize noise emissions—something he believes will be crucial to community acceptance—and with electric and battery power for sustainability.

It can be hard to imagine a future of easy, cheap, and fast transportation when today the world’s containers are stuck in an expensive holding pattern. In a follow-up to their August video about why shipping costs skyrocketed during the COVID-19 pandemic, McKinsey’s logistics experts forecast when shipping rates may normalize  and at what level, identify challenges that may prolong the record costs, and explain how the Chinese New Year next February may affect shipping rates.

McKinsey surveyed a diverse group of supply-chain executives globally to learn what steps they had taken to shore up their supply chains over the past year. Among key findings: companies were more likely than expected to increase inventories, and less likely either to diversify supply bases or to implement nearshoring or regionalization strategies.

Axel Hefer, CEO of Trivago, a global accommodation search platform, has seen a big shift toward travel domestically and to neighboring countries. In an interview with McKinsey, he describes how it could take years for the industry to rebuild trust in the idea that intercontinental travel is a low-risk activity.

• Development of a long-duration energy-storage market would enable the energy system to function smoothly with a large share of power coming from renewables and would make a substantial contribution to decarbonizing the power sector fully by 2040.
• In this episode of The McKinsey Podcast , Mona Mourshed, global founder and CEO of Generation, discusses a consistent pattern of bias against workers aged 45 and older across geographies . Weirdly, managers tend to rate their older workers high, but are reluctant to hire them.
• They play an increasingly important role in global trade, but micro, small, and medium-size enterprises (MSMEs) are often excluded from the $5.2 trillion global trade finance ecosystem . Trade finance needs an architecture of common standards and best practices to become more inclusive, collaborative, and digitized.

Here’s something to discuss around the Thanksgiving table: our new edition of McKinsey for Kids starts with the mess scattered around a typical kid’s bedroom and ends in Asia, where K-pop is influencing the world’s popular culture. What ties it all together? A deep dive for young people into global trade . We go back to ancient Mesopotamia, through the Industrial Revolution, and onto container ships to explain why and how the socks on your floor, the songs on your playlist, and the food in your lunch box come from all over the world.

COVID-19: Briefing note #81, November 17, 2021

It’s time to set priorities for the next era..

This week, McKinsey delved into priority setting, starting with ideas about how the wealth of ten top economies might be put to more productive use. We continued exploring what’s most important now with a breakdown of what the United States intends to tackle with its new $1.2 trillion infrastructure bill and in articles about COP26, M&A trends, and corporate responsibilities. We also reached outside our sphere, querying dozens of journalists about what they view as the top stories of our time.

McKinsey took stock of the underlying health and resilience of the global economy as it begins to rebound from the COVID-19 pandemic and questioned how productively global wealth is being used . Asset values in ten major economies are now nearly 50 percent higher than the long-run average relative to income. From 2000 to 2020, for every $1 of net new investment, twice as much debt and four times as many liabilities have been created. Historically, the growth of net worth has largely reflected investments that drive productivity and growth, in addition to inflation. Over the past two decades, however, increases in asset prices—driven largely by soaring real-estate prices—made up 77 percent of net-worth growth.

The first article in our new series, Reinvesting in America , breaks down the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act , signed into law this week. The act allocates an estimated $1.2 trillion in total funding over ten years, including $550 billion in new spending during the next five, divided between improving the surface-transportation network ($284 billion) and society’s core infrastructure ($266 billion).

Our key takeaway from COP26 was that the net-zero imperative is no longer in question—it has become an organizing principle for business. McKinsey analysis indicates that a net-zero transition would require $150 trillion of capital spending, two-thirds of it in developing economies. Net-zero commitments are outpacing the formation of supply chains, market mechanisms, and financing models. We propose five considerations that can help executives define an effective net-zero program for the next few years.

M&A deal value was up 175 percent from a year earlier for large transactions, according to McKinsey’s review of global M&A trends . By the end of August, the value of large global M&A transactions had already surpassed $3.9 trillion, making the $4.5 trillion record set in 2007 appear within reach. The continued high premiums make extracting greater value from transactions more important than ever. Private-equity firms are increasingly prioritizing full-fledged business building, and corporate players are working harder—and sometimes paying more—to find hidden jewels.

In this episode of the Inside the Strategy Room   podcast, two authors of a new McKinsey Global Institute  report examine how the value that companies bring to economies, societies, and households has changed . Between 1995 and 2018, the contribution of large corporations to their home countries’ economies rose by ten percentage points in terms of share of GDP. But those corporations are relying less and less on assets and labor—less physical capital and fewer employees per unit of revenue—which raises a wide set of questions.

We know what we think the big topics will be in the coming year, but we wanted to learn what members of the media consider most significant. McKinsey asked dozens of journalists and media leaders around the world two big coverage questions . First, what business, economics, or policy theme do they predict will dominate media in 2022? And second, what topic do they think will be under covered, and why does it merit more attention? Our interactive presentation lets our audience choose which journalists or publications they want to hear from.

• Automotive leaders can improve their electric-vehicle (EV) business strategy with six key insights from our research on EV profitability. The full report is available upon request from [email protected] .
• Automation, connectivity, and electrification will have profound effects on the design of automotive interiors . McKinsey examines considerations for OEMs and suppliers as vehicle interiors evolve.
• Most companies lack the tools to effectively manage the risks and returns of intelligent automation . Five steps can help create a better understanding of automation risk and how to handle it.
• A yearlong research collaboration between McKinsey and Exemplars in Global Health identifies factors that can drive widescale implementation of digital tools across healthcare systems in lower- and middle-income countries .
• Amid COVID-19-era supply-chain disruptions, apparel companies must shift toward a new sourcing model  that is flexible, fast, sustainable, digitally enhanced, and consumer-centric. Four key strategies can accelerate success.

Our Author Talks features Giulio Boccaletti, honorary research associate at the Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment, University of Oxford, and a former McKinsey partner. He discusses his new book, Water: A Biography (Pantheon, September 2021), which examines how societies throughout history have managed water resources and what the institutions that protect us from water events can learn from the past.

Our new edition of McKinsey for Kids starts with the mess scattered around a typical kid’s bedroom and ends in Asia, where K-pop is influencing the world’s popular culture. What ties it all together? A deep dive for young people into global trade . We go back to ancient Mesopotamia, through the Industrial Revolution, and onto container ships to explain why and how the socks on your floor, the songs on your playlist, and the food in your lunch box come from all over the world.

COVID-19: Briefing note #80, November 10, 2021

Bouncing back higher requires tackling underlying obstacles..

This week, McKinsey continued its exploration into how to grow economies sustainably and inclusively by focusing on the United States, its regions, and specific programs. We also examined the global fight against climate change in interviews with the authors of two books on the topic and with an article on building resilience.

The United States can achieve sustainable and inclusive growth if it can address issues including the struggles of young people, who are building wealth at a much slower pace than their peers did half a century ago, and large gaps in workforce participation, wages, and higher-education attainment. Other challenges include climate change, which is affecting people in different geographies in the United States in various ways, and slower productivity growth. McKinsey proposes a series of no-regrets actions to create the conditions for economic growth that mitigates climate change and benefits a wide swath of the population.

Though the region enjoys a strong economy and lower unemployment than the national average, Minneapolis–St. Paul has dramatic prosperity gaps between Black and White residents . Median Black household income is less than half the median White household income ($42,200 compared with $90,100, respectively), and workers of color were one and a half to two times likelier to report loss of income during the pandemic. To address root causes of inequities, leaders can increase access to capital for entrepreneurs, eliminate policies and practices that result in bias and exclusion, expand mentorship, and support the reskilling of workers.

States can leverage data to prepare for the US Treasury’s $10 billion Homeowner Assistance Fund program , intended to help homeowners avoid defaults and delinquencies through assistance with mortgage, insurance, and utility payments. A well-designed strategy to gather and analyze data will help states support homeowners most at risk. Going further to build dynamic models of the impact of different decisions and scenarios can also help states test various potential policies.

This week, we spoke with three authors for our Author Talks series, two of whom tackle climate change. Katharine Hayhoe, chief scientist for The Nature Conservancy, discusses her new book, Saving Us: A Climate Scientist’s Case for Hope and Healing in a Divided World (Simon & Schuster, September 2021). Hayhoe examines the facts of climate change and suggests personal and policy changes that can improve the situation.

In his new book, Speed & Scale: An Action Plan for Solving Our Climate Crisis Now (Penguin Random House, November 2021), John Doerr, investor and chairman of venture capital firm Kleiner Perkins, highlights ten big, global objectives by which we can cut carbon emissions. These include how we electrify transportation, decarbonize the grid, and manufacture concrete and steel.

Even in a scenario in which aggressive decarbonization results in just 1.5°C of warming above preindustrial levels by 2050, the number of people exposed to severe climate hazards could still increase to a quarter of the global population. Leaders need to build resilience against climate events  into their plans. Insurance, civil-engineering, agricultural, and financial-services companies all have roles to play in encouraging and enabling investment in sustainability and resilience.

• The global economy is exhibiting strong overall demand, according to McKinsey’s Global Economics Intelligence executive summary  for October. The public-health situation has improved in most surveyed economies, especially as COVID-19 vaccination programs make real progress. The main economic challenges are supply-chain bottlenecks and rising inflation. Fortunately, most economists and forecasting institutions expect that these difficulties will be relatively short lived.
• In McKinsey’s new report, The Internet of Things: Catching up to an accelerating opportunity , we estimate that by 2030, the IoT could enable $5.5 trillion to $12.6 trillion in value globally. We found that the factory setting will account for the largest amount of potential economic value from the IoT, about 26 percent, in 2030. The human-health setting is second, representing about 10 to 14 percent of estimated value in 2030.
• Sue Barsamian is a seasoned software executive who serves on the boards of companies including Five9, Box, and NortonLifeLock. In a wide-ranging interview, she discusses product–market fit, why unit economics always matters, and what’s making her optimistic about board diversity.

Our new edition of McKinsey for Kids starts with the mess scattered around a typical kid’s bedroom and ends in Asia where K-pop is influencing the world’s popular culture. What ties it all together? A deep dive for young people into global trade . We go back to ancient Mesopotamia, through the Industrial Revolution, and onto container ships to explain why and how the socks on your floor, the songs on your playlist, and the food in your lunch box come from all over the world.

Our third Author Talks features Azeem Azhar, creator of the Exponential View newsletter, on his new book, The Exponential Age: How Accelerating Technology Is Transforming Business, Politics and Society (Diversion Books, September 2021), which in the United Kingdom is titled Exponential: How to Bridge the Gap Between Technology and Society (Random House Business, September 2021). Azhar hopes the book will serve as a road map for how societies can deal with the effects of AI, automation, and big data.

COVID-19: Briefing note #79, November 3, 2021

Endemic covid-19 is one more problem we’ll have to live with..

We can still dream about putting the COVID-19 genie back in the bottle, but the more likely reality is that the virus will become an endemic problem we just have to get used to. Climate change is similar in some ways: a difficulty we have to plan for, deal with, and overcome every day. This week, McKinsey proposes multiple approaches to these and other ongoing struggles.

Soon, the daily risks we run with COVID-19 may seem as much a part of normal daily life as the risks we run when we drive or navigate flu season. A complete approach to managing endemic COVID-19  first requires society to reach a consensus on what is an acceptable disease burden. We will then need a comprehensive approach to track progress against this standard, define new disease-management protocols to limit deaths, and establish practices to slow transmission.

Underscoring how the virus is morphing into an endemic concern, our latest report on the coronavirus effect on global economic sentiment  revealed that uncertainty over COVID-19 is no longer executives’ foremost economic worry. Instead, they perceive the mounting fallout on the supply chain and inflation as the biggest threats to growth in their companies and economies.

Portfolio-alignment tools are computational models the financial sector can use to set climate targets and measure progress. These tools use forward-looking climate scenarios to estimate the division of the global carbon budget by sector and geography. This allows financial institutions the freedom to extend financing to heavy emitters, provided that the financing goes toward the responsible retirement or decarbonization of emitting assets and that decarbonization or retirement is successfully achieved.

Advanced technologies critical to stopping climate change that are already mature could deliver about 60 percent of the emissions abatement needed by 2050. But further abatement must come from climate technologies that aren’t quite ready. Our estimates suggest that next-generation technologies could attract $1.5 trillion to $2 trillion of capital investment per year by 2025. Established companies, start-ups, and investors will need a nuanced understanding of technical advances, customer demands, and policy environments.

Carbon markets have become increasingly fundamental to achieving net-zero greenhouse-gas emissions. A joint paper by McKinsey and research partners in Singapore discusses the rapid emergence of carbon markets as a viable asset class. Institutional investors could help corporations and nations use carbon markets  to achieve global climate goals while also fulfilling their own mandates.

If Africa can use its large renewable-energy-generation capacity and rich natural capital endowments strategically, it could catalyze economic growth and make a substantial contribution to the global net-zero transition. McKinsey’s Green Africa report  highlights ten opportunities that could deliver growth, boost resilience, and abate emissions on the continent.

• Global ambition, significant funding, the scale and pace of reforms, the talent supply, and the healthcare opportunity are galvanizing a new era of biopharmaceutical innovation in China . The country’s emergence as a new source of innovation is good news for a global biopharma industry facing intense pressure on R&D productivity.
• Mobility value pools across Asia are expected to grow while new patterns of consumption will transform opportunities in the region. Consumers may adopt new behaviors such as considering new forms of ownership, increasing eco-consciousness, and changing brand preferences.
• Feeling peckish? You’re in good company. This episode of the McKinsey on Consumer and Retail podcast features Blas Maquivar, president of global emerging markets at Mars Wrigley . The executive describes the snacking habits of various nations and digital strategies that let consumers print their own pictures on M&M candies.

Our Author Talks  series features former McKinsey consultant David McCloskey on his debut novel, Damascus Station (W. W. Norton & Company, October 2021). The novel was inspired by the author’s pre-McKinsey career as an analyst with the CIA, when he worked in field stations across the Middle East and focused on Iraq, Lebanon, and Syria, and counterterrorism issues.

Also in Author Talks , Paul Polman, the cofounder and chair of IMAGINE and former CEO of Unilever, discusses his book Net Positive: How Courageous Companies Thrive by Giving More Than They Take (Harvard Business Review Press, October 2021). Leadership and systems changes are needed so that businesses can focus on being successful by solving the world’s problems.

COVID-19: Briefing note #78, October 27, 2021

How can the world deliver growth and sustainability and inclusion.

McKinsey routinely highlights near-term obstacles that affect the organizations we serve, as in this week’s collection of articles about a distressing aftershock of the COVID-19 pandemic: inflation. But this week, we also offer an expansive reflection by McKinsey’s leadership on a vision for the future.

How do we go about building a future that delivers growth, sustainability, and inclusion ? McKinsey’s global managing partner Bob Sternfels and colleagues Tracy Francis, Anu Madgavkar, and Sven Smit deliver a proposal for how changemakers in business, government, and society can forge such a path. First and foremost, the three goals cannot be viewed as trade-offs but rather as fundamentals that strengthen and reinforce one another.

McKinsey recently examined inflation from several angles. The COVID-19 pandemic has driven radical shifts in demand, buying patterns, and perceived value across value chains, which in turn have led to sharp spikes in commodity prices. While procurement teams should continue efforts to fight material-cost increases and creatively reduce sourcing costs, adjusting prices is essential in today’s inflationary environment  to improve margin position and align the prices of a wide range of industrial goods with their value to customers.

Pandemic price spikes and commodity cost increases are concerns for many business leaders, but for CFOs, inflation and its repercussions are calls to action . To get clarity on how price increases have affected their profit-and-loss statements, CFOs first have to ask the right questions about market dynamics, financial performance, and leadership incentives. Swift action to mitigate the effects of price spikes is often essential because it takes time for benefits to materialize.

After a decade of defense-spending growth, the budget for the US Department of Defense could flatten and not keep pace with inflation . The budget isn’t the only thing that is changing. Defense leaders have renewed interest in adopting innovative technologies, such as quantum computing, artificial intelligence, and hypersonic weapons. Balancing the budget will require a new cost-reduction approach that sets market-backed targets across all areas.

Bathroom tissue may not be a glamorous topic, but it’s an effective bellwether of consumer sentiment, as panic buying during the outset of the pandemic illustrated. Today, the five trends shaping the global tissue industry  point to larger consumer themes, including the need to be e-commerce ready and sustainable. Rising inflation is expected to fuel demand for private-label and lower-cost products.

• The number of public-company listings in the United States peaked in the mid-1990s, at nearly 6,000, but has fallen by about half over the past 20 years. While pundits worry, our analysis shows that reports of corporates’ demise have been greatly exaggerated .
• As businesses emerge from the pandemic, more than 80 percent face critical skills gaps. In these new circumstances, we believe the age-old art of apprenticeship can be central to an organization’s strategy for improving capabilities.
• Dwindling supplies of fresh water pose a material business risk: one estimate shows that the lack of clean fresh water threatens some $425 billion of value across more than 500 companies. New analysis shows how companies can reduce water risk  by targeting renewable-energy purchases and investments.

It’s not for goofing off; it’s for sharpening your problem-solving skills. What nine-letter word are we searching for? “Crossword,” of course—as in McKinsey’s weekly crossword . Each puzzle is created with the McKinsey reader in mind and includes a business theme (of varying degrees of subtlety) for you to noodle over.

COVID-19: Briefing note #77, October 20, 2021

Within regional stories lie universal postpandemic themes..

This week, McKinsey experts examined the Asian postpandemic economy and looked into other regional issues including trends reshaping Europe’s power markets, how the United States can decarbonize its power system by 2035, and Germany’s journey toward net zero. Within these deep dives in specific regions are global lessons, including the need to massively accelerate renewable energy generation and to truly understand the digital-native consumer.

Two years since McKinsey labeled this the Asian century  and in the wake of the extraordinary shock of COVID-19, the region is exhibiting remarkable resilience. The Asian economy contracted by 1.5 percent in 2020, while the world economy shrank by 3.2 percent; Asia is expected to rebound faster both this year and next. Windows of opportunity for Asia  include leveraging regional trade networks, boosting growth through innovation and productivity, putting climate change at the top of the corporate and policy agenda, and serving a changing consumer sector.

European power markets have entered a period of unprecedented change. Power prices have risen to about four times the historical average in a number of European countries. More uncertainty lies ahead: electricity demand is expected to increase steadily in Europe, due in part to electrification of transport. A future energy system dominated by intermittent renewable power raises questions about total-capacity rollout. When utilities and large power buyers face such question marks, strategic risk management becomes a matter of survival.

In April 2021, the United States set a target to create a “carbon pollution-free power sector by 2035.” McKinsey experts present a potential “zero-by-35” decarbonization scenario for the United States  in which each regional power market would reach net-zero greenhouse-gas emissions without offsets from other sectors.

Achieving climate neutrality by 2045 is feasible for Germany , though daunting. Our research shows that the transformation to net-zero emissions can be achieved at net-zero cost for society as a whole, delivering a favorable business case for Germany and a leap to a new technological age. Germany has to tackle key challenges in the five most emissions-intensive sectors: energy, industry, transportation, buildings, and agriculture.

• Traditionally, earnings per share is viewed as a major driver of returns to shareholders. But our historical and updated analyses point to economic profit as a better indicator  of corporate performance. McKinsey experts explain why investors should examine a company’s total profit after the cost of capital is subtracted.
• COVID-19 forced colleges and universities worldwide into online education. McKinsey identified the best online higher-education practices  by surveying academic research as well as the reported practices of more than 30 institutions, and by conducting ethnographic market research. Vital building blocks include creating a seamless journey for students (single sign-on is key), adopting an engaging approach to teaching, and facilitating interpersonal connections.
• Shareholders in semiconductor companies have seen high double-digit returns throughout the pandemic, despite supply-chain issues and growing divergence in global trade. To keep the momentum going, semiconductor players might want to consider focusing on gaining leadership in profitable segments by leveraging M&A and partnerships, building agility, and pursuing new technologies and innovations.
• COVID-19 has been hard on fashion: apparel companies lost more than 90 percent of their profits in 2020, according to the McKinsey Global Fashion Index . Data will be the key for the fashion industry  to unlock the insights needed to reengage customers in the coming months and years.

Our Author Talks series features Emory University law professor Dorothy A. Brown, a nationally recognized scholar on race, class, and tax policy, about her latest book, The Whiteness of Wealth: How the Tax System Impoverishes Black Americans—and How We Can Fix It (Crown, March 2021). US tax policy often favors behaviors and activities more common among White households, putting Black taxpayers at a disadvantage.

COVID-19: Briefing note #76, October 13, 2021

The drama of covid-19 has cast leaders in new roles..

All the world’s a stage, but the COVID-19 pandemic has rewritten the script. Executives are now asked to play different parts. This week, McKinsey looked at the morphing demands on CFOs and asset managers, and at how C-suite leaders across industries must understand and embrace digitally enabled strategies and business models.

The job of CFO has been transformed by the pandemic, according to the latest McKinsey Global Survey . Crisis management, social and environmental issues, and the accelerated adoption of technology are occupying time previously devoted to strategic leadership and finance capabilities. Between 2016 and 2021, the share of finance leaders who say that they are responsible for their companies’ digital activities has more than tripled. Procurement, board engagement, and investor relations are also newly important focuses for CFOs.

We’re all tech executives now, to some extent. Across industries, competitive differentiation today emerges from superior digital capabilities  and technology endowment, more agile delivery, and a progressively more tech-savvy C-suite. To better understand how leading banks achieve more with their technology budget , we looked at how their workforce is configured, on three dimensions: spending, roles, and talent. Banks that have reconfigured all three have achieved a significant uptick in output from their technology budgets. Consumer-packaged-goods (CPG) manufacturers must leverage digital  and analytical capability to accelerate productivity. CPG companies must also unravel the conundrum of e-commerce, which offers a growth channel but not necessarily a profitable one. On the McKinsey on Consumer and Retail podcast, McKinsey’s Lidiya Chapple and Tatiana Sivaeva explain how CPG companies can profitably meet online consumers’ needs .

McKinsey’s annual report on North American asset managers , whose industry profits reached close to $73 billion in 2020, highlights ways in which the industry’s role is changing. Investors increasingly want their asset managers to expose them to opportunities outside of traditional asset classes and industry sectors. Asset managers are getting more help from technology-enabled mass customization, which can broaden access to value propositions that have typically been the preserve of institutional and high-net-worth investors.

• Cultivated meat is a cutting-edge food that is just beginning to be produced at commercial levels. In a series of videos and articles about cultivated meat , McKinsey and industry experts offer insights into what it is, how it is made, and how it can scale to become a global industry.
• McKinsey’s Global Economics Intelligence executive summary for September revealed that rapid growth and strong demand are bumping against pandemic-related disruptions. Energy prices have surged, but long-term inflation expectations remain moderate.
• People with mental illness report higher levels of financial distress . Their lower sense of financial security underscores the importance of holistic care for behavioral health—not just treating mental illness symptoms but considering the broader needs an individual with mental illness may have.
• A corporate spin-off can liberate a parent company and a divested business unit from capital and bureaucratic constraints, so they can pursue strategies they couldn’t otherwise. Our analysis of more than 200 US spin-offs , as well as our experience in the field, point to four critical factors.

Our Author Talks series features Indra Nooyi, former chairman and CEO of PepsiCo, about her new book “My Life in Full: Work, Family, and Our Future” (Penguin Random House, September 2021). Reflecting on her own experience, the first woman of color and immigrant to run a Fortune 50 company argues that winning the war for talent requires creating a new system in which women can both manage their families and climb to the top at work.

COVID-19: Briefing note #75, October 6, 2021

Some problems are relentless and call for an unrelenting response..

As the COVID-19 crisis drags on, executives, particularly in developed economies, are feeling worse about the state of the economy and their own companies’ prospects. It’s natural that a challenge as unremitting as the pandemic should produce alternating hope and despair. This week, McKinsey examined the backslide in executives’ views, and a variety of similar issues that require problem-solving as dogged as the problems themselves, including vaccine development, transport decarbonization, employee needs, and the extraterrestrial junkyard.

Just as the rise of the Delta variant ushered in a fresh wave of COVID-19 cases, so it appears to have resuscitated executives’ worries about the economy . In our latest McKinsey Global Survey , 65 percent of respondents say that they expect improvements in their home economies, down from a range of 73 to 79 percent who have said so since March 2021.

By region, the pandemic is the top risk to growth in every region except Latin America and cited most often by those in developing markets and Asia–Pacific.

In a wide-ranging interview with McKinsey, Richard Hatchett, CEO of the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations , or CEPI, discusses the work of the largest vaccine-development initiative focused on viruses that are potential epidemic threats. Among other big challenges, there is still work to be done to optimize existing COVID-19 vaccines. CEPI is evaluating mix-and-match dose strategies, where first and second doses could be from different manufacturers, to improve the performance, as well as fractionated, or dose-sparing strategies, to boost coverage.

The organization is also examining the optimal intervals between doses and whether two or three doses are required.

What will it take to move the transport infrastructure industry toward carbon zero ? Globally, more than $2 trillion of transport infrastructure investments will be needed each year until 2040 to fuel economic development. The transport sector is the largest contributor of greenhouse-gas emissions within the European Union, and emissions are still growing. McKinsey’s road map lays out changes needed in planning, design, tender, procurement, and operations that can help the industry forge a more sustainable path forward.

What do workers want? Our research is clear: workers are hungry for purpose, to feel their work is valued, and their opportunities are growing, all in a comfortable physical and digital environment with the right work–life balance. It is possible to deliver an excellent employee experience , but organizations may need to profoundly reorient themselves away from a traditional top-down model to one based on the fundamentals of design thinking.

Even in space, we need to clean up after ourselves . About 11,000 satellites have been launched since Sputnik 1 in 1957. In the next few years, roughly 70,000 satellites could enter orbit if proposed plans come to fruition—an explosion of interest based on potential new markets and more sophisticated technologies. Unless actively deorbited, they will remain there for months to hundreds of years. McKinsey’s Aerospace & Defense Practice  examines how to handle the four main types of extraterrestrial trash.

Here are some of this week’s other key findings from our sector research:

• It’s not science fiction; it’s the tech-enabled insurance industry of the future. In auto insurance, risk will shift from drivers to the artificial intelligence and software behind self-driving cars. Satellites, drones, and real-time data sets will give insurers unprecedented visibility into risk. As part of our research into the ten tech trends reshaping industries , McKinsey explored their impact on insurance and which five are poised to reshape the insurance landscape .
• McKinsey analyzed regulatory frameworks around the world for the burgeoning digital banking sector , examining how various approaches have shaped the development of digital banking.
• On the Inside the Strategy Room podcast , Obi Ezekoye, a leader in the Strategy & Corporate Finance Practice, Anthony Luu, an expert in M&A and strategy transformations, and Andy West, the global coleader of McKinsey’s M&A Practice, discuss why companies struggle to make portfolio decisions, especially on the divestment side , and often make them too late.

Our Author Talks series features Parag Khanna, founder and managing partner of FutureMap, speaking about his book Move: The Forces Uprooting Us (Simon & Schuster, October 2021). The globalization scholar discusses the migration patterns he expects will occur over the next ten to 30 years and how societies should prepare.

COVID-19: Briefing note #74, September 29, 2021

To address vaccine hesitancy, first comprehend it..

The first step to solving a problem is to understand it. That’s one of the keys to getting at least some unvaccinated Americans to take action. This week, McKinsey examined vaccine hesitancy and identified some of the reasons for resistance, which, once removed, could help build a bridge to herd immunity. McKinsey experts used this same problem-defining approach to examine how to improve women’s work lives, reduce methane emissions, make organizational transformations more effective, and drive revenue in meal delivery.

More than 63 percent of the US population have received at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine, and more than 54 percent have been fully vaccinated, as of September 16, 2021. A minimum of roughly 80 million additional individuals would still need to be vaccinated in the next few months  for the country to have a chance at reaching herd immunity. Among the unvaccinated, 14 percent are “Unlikely adopters,” who may never take the shot, while 7 percent are “Interested,” meaning that they plan on getting the vaccine. The most dynamic unvaccinated group is the “Cautious” category, people who may get vaccinated if their concerns can be addressed. Aiding in scheduling appointments, as well as addressing worries about long-term side effects, could help move this group into the vaccinated category.

McKinsey and LeanIn.Org’s Women in the Workplace study reflects experiences from 423 participating organizations and more than 65,000 survey respondents. In spite of the challenges of the COVID-19 pandemic and its effect on the workplace, women’s representation has improved across the corporate pipeline since 2016, but there are also persistent gaps. Women of color continue to lose ground at every step: between the entry level and the C-suite, their representation drops off by more than 75 percent. In the past year, one in three women has considered leaving the workforce or downshifting their career—a significant increase from one in four in the first few months of the pandemic. Companies need to take bold steps to address burnout and to recognize and reward the women leaders who are driving progress.

Curbing emissions of methane from agriculture, oil and gas, coal mining, solid-waste management, and wastewater management will be critical to solving the net-zero equation. New McKinsey research shows that these five industries could achieve a 20 percent reduction in global annual methane emissions by 2030 and a 46 percent reduction by 2050—enough for a significant shift toward a 1.5°C warming pathway. McKinsey proposes three “no regrets” actions to begin reducing methane emissions now.

As leaders steer organizations out of the COVID-19 pandemic, many are recognizing the need for transformation. The question is, how many people must be involved in a transformation for it to be effective ? McKinsey analyzed data from 60 organizations that are at least two years into their transformations and discovered the bare minimum: at least 7 percent of employees should own some part of the change project. That may seem low, but the average company involves only 2 percent of its employees.

Food delivery has become a global market worth more than $150 billion , having more than tripled since 2017. McKinsey identifies the most promising revenue models, which include “dark kitchens,” customer-specific menu engineering, and brand spin-offs.

• Increasingly, private-equity (PE) firms are closely managing the companies they own. To run these portfolio companies, they are choosing CEOs who understand the higher metabolic rate that PE requires. McKinsey, along with top PE executives, created a playbook for newcomers to the role of portfolio-company CEO  that provides insight, guidance, and a series of steps to take control of this demanding leadership challenge.
• It’s time for US auto dealerships to prepare for an electric-vehicle (EV) future . Everyone from sales staff to maintenance workers will need training to work with this technology. McKinsey’s confidence in the segment comes from impressive sales numbers, despite the COVID-19 pandemic: Europe and China achieved fourth-quarter 2020 sales increases of 60 percent and 80 percent, respectively, over the previous quarter. In the United States, EV sales increased nearly 200 percent between the second quarter 2020 and the second quarter 2021.

Even the most seasoned professional was a neophyte at some point, a fact celebrated in our My Rookie Moment video series, in which McKinsey colleagues discuss the first time they had to deal with a particular challenge. This edition features stories about the nerve-racking process of giving a colleague tough feedback for the first time, and the humbling experience of receiving it.

COVID-19: Briefing note #73, September 22, 2021

Covid-19 vaccines demonstrate how to achieve the impossible..

Vaccination rates, vaccine hesitancy, herd immunity—these have become topics that occupy our everyday thoughts. It can be jarring to remember that less than a year ago, nobody, outside of clinical-trial volunteers, could get a shot at all. How the world got from there to here in record time is the story of achieving an impossible goal. This week, McKinsey explored how Pfizer’s leadership team took on a challenge that they initially believed was undoable. We also examined other difficult feats, including delivering sustainable infrastructure, making electric vehicles (EVs) profitable, and adapting to climate change, and contemplated steps to achieving them.

If you want to leave the meeting room, first make a decision. That was one of the systems Pfizer developed to advance its apparently impossible agenda of distributing a vaccine in eight months, said Angela Hwang, Pfizer’s head of biopharmaceuticals, in an interview with McKinsey senior partner David Quigley . This interview is part of COVID-19 vaccines: The road to recovery and beyond , a series that includes a broad array of voices leading the historic global effort to develop, distribute, and provide equitable access to COVID-19 vaccines, including the Africa CDC; CEPI; Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance; and Moderna.

As illustrated by our “chart of the day,” vaccination has helped countries dramatically reduce the rate of hospitalization due to COVID-19, among other benefits. Now Pfizer is focusing on the next big vaccine challenges, including shots for younger kids, heartier formulations, and doses that can manage new variants.

The September edition of Voices on Infrastructure features four articles that explore how leaders are tackling the seemingly insurmountable task of building sustainable infrastructure and retrofitting existing assets. In an interview, Sadek Wahba, chairman and managing partner of I Squared Capital , discusses some of the most exciting investment cases for sustainable infrastructure, including floating solar and floating wind turbines, as well as offshore wind. Lara Poloni, president of AECOM, and Nick Smallwood, CEO of IPA  and head of the UK government’s Project Delivery Function, identify top concerns for the construction industry. These include prioritizing whole-life carbon measurement and scaling up the capacity to retrofit existing social infrastructure and housing to improve energy efficiency. Densely packed urban residents are particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change. McKinsey Sustainability and C40 Cities—a network of 97 global cities dedicated to addressing climate change—offer a starting set of 15 high-potential actions for cities to consider . Finally, solving problems requires first understanding them completely. Help us develop a consistent set of sustainability metrics by answering McKinsey’s full asset-life-cycle survey .

Despite growing sales, EV profitability is only slightly above breakeven for many auto makers. McKinsey research is clear that the automotive future is electric , so figuring out how to make it profitable is essential to both OEMs’ business models and the decarbonization of the transportation system. McKinsey’s in-depth report explores how OEMs can boost EV profitability .

• Cloud-based computing will provide tangible benefits for banking risk management , but leaders face significant challenges migrating their systems and activities from on-premises to the cloud. McKinsey proposes three key actions to help guide the cloud adoption journey. Our cloud cost-optimization simulator  illustrates the potential financial impact of a migration.
• Data, properly protected and used, can simplify delivery of public services, reduce fraud and human error, and catalyze massive operational efficiencies. McKinsey suggests five actions governments can take to transition to an efficient and effective data landscape .
• As a share of GDP, industrial manufacturing in the United States has been falling for decades. But smaller industrial businesses have the opportunity to improve manufacturing processes and grow  amid a shift toward end-to-end market demand.

Our Author Talks series features Ella Bell Smith, a professor of management at the Tuck School of Business at Dartmouth College. She discusses her re-released book, Our Separate Ways, With a New Preface and Epilogue: Black and White Women and the Struggle for Professional Identity (Harvard Business Review Press, August 2021). She makes a case for why companies need to spend more on developing Black women to take on senior roles and why women in general should seek out revenue-generating positions. Even the most seasoned professional was a neophyte at some point, a fact celebrated in our My Rookie Moment   video series, in which McKinsey colleagues discuss the first time they had deal with a particular challenge. The latest edition features stories about the nerve-wracking process of giving a colleague tough feedback for the first time, and the humbling experience of receiving it.

COVID-19: Briefing note #72, September 15, 2021

To reach the post-covid-19 era, vaccine supply chains must improve..

Nine months since the first COVID-19 mass vaccination program began, only 1.4 percent of people in low-income countries have received at least one dose. The problem is not just of procurement, but also of distribution and the lack of strong cold-chain infrastructure in some parts of the world. Solving these problems is the only way to get from where we are now to the post-COVID-19 era. Once the vaccination challenge—and the pandemic itself—has been overcome, CEOs will face a new set of priorities, which our experts defined this week. We also explored mindsets and skills, including automating, partnering, and developing and supporting diverse talent, that will be crucial for future leaders.

Each of the COVID-19 vaccines has a different profile, but they all have one thing in common: the need for cold-chain vaccine storage . Broadly speaking, developing countries have less mature cold-chain systems than do high-income economies, with various degrees of maturity within them. Procuring vaccines will not be enough to vaccinate the world: cold-chain systems need investment and improvement to get doses into arms effectively.

As promised last week, McKinsey senior partner Homayoun Hatami and global leader Liz Hilton Segel offer an information-packed interactive examining the five priorities of CEOs in the new normal . To prepare for the post-COVID-19 era, leaders need to do more than fine-tune their day-to-day tasks; they need to be ready and willing to rethink how they operate, and even why they exist. In the future, CEOs must be proactive on sustainability, know how to derive value from cloud computing, focus on cultivating talent, design organizations for speed, and communicate purpose across their organizations.

Energy companies face societal pressure and increased regulation to significantly reduce fossil-fuel dependency. Leaders in the sector should consider a promising solution: autonomous plants . Such future plants link technology, data, and advanced visualizations with operations to ensure that assets learn from each action taken, as well as from historical data and derived insights. These plants progressively improve their operations over time to run with a lower carbon footprint as well as more safely and profitably.

To improve the track record of public–private partnerships , government policy makers can align with the private sector to better manage the risks of undertaking a large project. Transferring specific project risks and responsibilities—including development, construction, and operation—to private-sector investors and lenders leverages the risk-management capabilities of the private sector, while the public sector often remains the project’s legal owner.

US business leaders face a moral and economic imperative at the societal level: to make employer-sponsored healthcare work better for America’s workers . Poor health costs the US economy about $3.2 trillion annually from premature deaths and lost productivity. Compared with high-income peer countries, the United States has a 46 to 50 percent higher disease burden rate for 20- to 40-year-old workers, and a 17 to 33 percent higher disease burden rate for those over 40 years old. Employers can consider a suite of changes to improve employee health and productivity.

How can mining companies attract and retain more women workers? A global survey with more than 1,000 respondents examined the diversity problem within mining, where only 8 to 17 percent of the workforce is female, the gender pay gap is large, and the rate of women who ascend from entry level to executive ranks is low. Leaders who want to fix the problem should set parity goals, cultivate potential employees from colleges and even high schools, and create “buddy” and “sponsor” programs that provide support.

• Like streaming music or driving electric cars, eating cultivated meat—grown in a bioreactor rather than in an animal’s body—may eventually seem totally normal, says CEO Josh Tetrick in an interview about his cultivated-meat company, Eat Just, Inc .
• On the Inside the Strategy Room podcast , Howard Ungerleider, president and CFO of Dow, describes his role in executing the Dow Chemical and DuPont merger  in 2017 and their subsequent split into three separate companies. The highly complex transaction, which took four years, transformed the chemical industry landscape.
• When Kevin Gallagher, CEO of Santos , Australia’s largest domestic gas supplier, first took the top job in 2016, he realized that the company needed to break its boom-and-bust cycle with a new business model. He divested noncore assets and set a break-even oil price as a consistent metric to generate free cash flow through the cycle. This article explores lessons companies can derive from Santos’s successful turnaround.

Even the most seasoned professional was a neophyte at some point, a fact celebrated in our My Rookie Moment video series , in which McKinsey colleagues discuss the first time they had to deal with a particular challenge. This edition features stories about the nerve-racking process of giving a colleague tough feedback for the first time, and the humbling experience of receiving it.

COVID-19: Briefing note #71, September 8, 2021

What will be the top priorities in the next normal.

As companies and industries plan for life after the COVID-19 pandemic, one of the trickiest tasks will be to identify a new set of priorities. Throughout this crisis, coping and keeping up with the ever-shifting situation have taken precedence. But a contagious virus will not always be the top concern for organizations, and other urgent issues, including sustainability, cloud computing, and competition for talent, will require top-of-mind focus. This week, McKinsey examined how leaders can identify and address what matters most in the postpandemic world.

In the wake of COVID-19, a top priority for many companies has been to address talent questions, including how to optimize hybrid teams, attract and retain workers with needed capabilities, and make the most of scarce skills. Forward-looking organizations are choosing flow-to-work operating models , which create pools of resources that can be deployed flexibly and on demand. These pools are formed based on similarity of skills, rather than similarity of business functions, making it easier for organizations to access the right skills when they need them.

What is the key to outstanding performance in banking? According to a recent McKinsey analysis, location is today’s biggest factor, accounting for about 65 percent of the standard deviation in price to book. Banks that choose to prioritize location should consider looking for investments and acquisitions that expose them to flourishing markets. In expanding markets, they should consider prioritizing high-demand products and services and profitable customer segments.

To operate efficiently and support their organizations’ missions, corporate legal departments should focus on four key priorities : defining their functional purpose clearly, preparing for both a changing legal ecosystem and a new wave of corporate litigation, and competing for talent with law firms and the public sector.

Next week, watch for McKinsey senior partner Homayoun Hatami and global leader Liz Hilton Segel offering a deep dive into the five immediate priorities for CEOs now. Imperatives include centering strategy around sustainability and making the most of the cloud-computing revolution.

• IT services companies are often overlooked by private-equity investors but deserve more serious attention . The $1 trillion per-year global market for IT service providers is projected to grow by more than 6 percent per year in 2021 and 2022, more quickly than global GDP.
• Direct-to-consumer and e-commerce companies need to avoid five common pitfalls that hamper growth and long-term success. These include deferring focus and investment in operations and channel management and designing technology platforms for short-term goals, such as launches, instead of the long game.
• The automotive future is electric . New regulatory targets in the European Union and the United States now aim for an electric-vehicle (EV) share of at least 50 percent by 2030, and several countries have announced accelerated timelines for sales bans on internal-combustion-engine vehicles in 2030 or 2035. Increasing consumer appetite and improved technology are making EVs ever more popular and viable.

In a new edition of our  Author Talks series, Vanessa Bohns, a professor of organizational behavior at Cornell University, discusses her book, You Have More Influence Than You Think: How We Underestimate Our Power of Persuasion, and Why It Matters  (W. W. Norton, September 2021). People often have more impact on others than they realize, so learning how to use that power can be more important than focusing on acquiring more influence. Our latest edition of McKinsey for Kids is designed to help 18-year-olds (or so) explore automation and the future of work (heads-up: there could be robots involved). Our “find your fit” mini quiz suggests a few occupations that a kid might consider.

COVID-19: Briefing note #70, September 1, 2021

How high can industries bounce back.

While the COVID-19 pandemic was unspooling, many in various industries asked themselves, “How bad can it get?” Now that some recoveries are under way, leaders are increasingly wondering how good, how high, and how long the postcrisis bounce will be. This week, McKinsey examined the global recovery in car sales and discussed with Moderna’s chief executive why developing the COVID-19 vaccine may lead to a robust era of drug discovery. Consumer-sector and bank executives, as well as corporate boards, are rethinking approaches to set the stage for successful comebacks.

Few industries were hit as hard by the pandemic’s arrival as automotive and mobility. Now, our survey of consumers in China, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States shows that consumers’ intent to purchase cars is close to pre-COVID-19 levels , fueled by positive outlooks in the United States and China. Car dealerships are getting busier, and many are eagerly seeking more inventory to sell. Overall, mobility is picking up steadily.

Moderna was able to develop a COVID-19 vaccine in only 11 months in part because it already had nine vaccines in clinical trials using messenger RNA (mRNA) technology, says CEO Stéphane Bancel. We are now in a world where mRNA as a platform has been derisked for use in vaccines and can be authorized for emergency use. Moderna is studying the use of its mRNA platform to help transform the treatment of infectious diseases  in the next five years.

Consumer behavior throughout various phases of the pandemic surprised even consumer-behavior experts. On the McKinsey on Consumer and Retail podcast , McKinsey partner Kari Alldredge; Anne Grimmelt, a senior knowledge expert in McKinsey’s Consumer Packaged Goods Practice; and Anjali Lai, a senior analyst at Forrester, discuss being shocked by how much bread baking and pet buying went on during lockdowns and how heartily consumers embraced a return to big brands. Because consumers can’t accurately predict their own behavior shifts, companies should get better at mining online data and using advanced analytics to spot trends.

Changes in technology, markets, and the labor force provoked by the pandemic have altered the mandate for many corporate boards . On the Inside the Strategy Room podcast , McKinsey experts discuss corporate boards that are engaging more deeply on broader questions of talent—far beyond just who is CEO and how much compensation they get—and company culture.

Northwestern Mutual executives were all set to roll out a proprietary financial-planning tool the company wanted its network of independent financial advisers to embrace. Then the pandemic hit. The crisis required pivoting to virtual engagement, which resulted in creating more opportunities for outreach and better uptake and understanding of the tool.

• Cultivated meat is meat, but it is produced from animal cells that grow in a controlled environment. An interview with start-up Aleph Farms CEO Didier Toubia  examines the potential of this revolutionary technology.
• The materials traditionally used to make consumer and commercial goods account for close to half of global greenhouse-gas emissions. John Bissell and Rich Riley are co-CEOs of Origin Materials , which offers a proprietary technology platform to help companies produce their goods with less negative impact. In a wide-ranging interview on the McKinsey on Start-ups podcast , the executives discuss growth plans at a time when more companies are looking for sustainability solutions.

Our new edition of McKinsey for Kids  is designed to help 18-year-olds (or so) explore automation and the future of work (heads-up: there could be robots involved). Our “find your fit” mini quiz suggests a few occupations that a kid might consider. Our Author Talks series features Tiziana Casciaro, professor of organizational behavior at Toronto’s Rotman School of Management on the new book she coauthored, Power, for All: How It Really Works and Why It’s Everyone’s Business (Simon & Schuster, August 2021). The book explains why power comes not from rank but from knowing what is valued and how to deliver it. Also on Author Talks , global development executive April Rinne talks about her new book, Flux: 8 Superpowers for Thriving in Constant Change (Berrett-Koehler Publishers, August 2021), which explores how individuals and organizations can develop adaptable mindsets.

COVID-19: Briefing note #69, August 25, 2021

The delta variant has moved the goalposts..

Some parts of the world felt a surge of optimism in the spring, as vaccination rates were climbing and COVID-19 cases dropping. Those regions now face the disappointment of a reversal, thanks to the spread of the Delta variant. Such whiplash is starting to feel like a way of life for people everywhere, as well as for industries including shipping, retail, and healthcare. This week, McKinsey published updated research examining when the pandemic might end and attempted to estimate when some pandemic-related disruptions could return to what we used to call normal. 

Among high-income countries, cases caused by the Delta variant reversed the transition toward normalcy first in the United Kingdom, during June and July of 2021, and subsequently in the United States and elsewhere. McKinsey’s analysis supports the view of others that the Delta variant has effectively moved overall herd immunity out of reach  in most countries for the time being. The United Kingdom’s experience nevertheless suggests that once a country has weathered a wave of Delta-driven cases, it may be able to resume the transition toward normalcy. Beyond that, a more realistic epidemiological endpoint might arrive not when herd immunity is achieved but when COVID-19 can be managed as an endemic disease. The biggest overall risk would likely then be the emergence of a significant new variant.

One of the most economically pervasive pandemic effects is a boom in shipping costs. In a video explaining why container shipping prices have surged , McKinsey partners say that sending a container from Asia to Europe or North America cost roughly $2,000 before the pandemic and $12,000 or more today. Though demand should remain high in the coming months as retailers prepare for the holiday season, prices should begin to come down by the end of the year.

While many of consumers’ pandemic-inspired digital habits are sticking, the acceleration into digital channels now seems to be leveling off in both Europe and the United States. Companies can build on their digital surge  by creating strategies based on long-term value, investing aggressively in tech talent, and being smarter about how they work with data.

McKinsey’s July survey of 100 large private-sector US hospitals revealed that amid returning patient volumes and continuing COVID-19 hospitalizations, challenges in clinical-support staffing remain high. Eighty-four percent of survey respondents report trouble with turnover and vacancies in their nursing staffs. This may only be the start of greater challenges, as 22 percent of the nursing workforce reported in our Spring 2021 Future of Work in Nursing Survey  that they may leave their roles providing direct patient care in the next year.

US consumer spending recovered in the second quarter of 2021 , driven by increasing vaccination rates, stimulus payments in March 2021, and the general reopening of the economy. Consumers’ pent-up demand and willingness to spend in some discretionary categories caused spending to grow at 20 to 30 percent year over year, reaching 4 to 7 percent above pre-COVID-19 levels.

• The COVID-19 pandemic has triggered an acceleration of digital-payment adoption in the Middle East , as it has in other regions. Payments players with the right strategies can capitalize on this revolution in a region that is traditionally heavily dependent on cash.
• Amid increased consolidation, digitization, and specialization in the insurance industry, private equity is investing in specialty-insurance carriers and brokers and benefiting from the long-term capital  insurance companies provide.
• Between September and November of 2020 alone, 178,000 women in the United Kingdom lost their jobs. In an interview with McKinsey, Smart Works CEO Kate Stephens said that the UK charity, which provides support to women who are job hunting , saw a corresponding 21 percent rise in the number of women seeking its services, many of which are now offered remotely.

Our new edition of McKinsey for Kids is designed to help 18-year-olds (or so) explore automation and the future of work (heads-up: there could be robots involved). Our “find your fit” mini quiz suggests a few occupations that a kid might consider. McKinsey’s annual reading list is back , with 100-plus book recommendations shared by more than 40 leaders and personalities. Be sure to download McKinsey’s 124-page collection Author Talks and read some of our best interviews with authors of recently published books on business and beyond. Finally, check out McKinsey on Books  for our monthly business best-seller rankings—prepared exclusively for McKinsey Global Publishing by NPD BookScan—as well as a collection of books by McKinsey authors on the management issues that matter. Next up in books: peruse the long list  for the annual Financial Times   and McKinsey Business Book of the Year Award  (the winner will be announced December 1), and register now for the digital short-list-announcement  event on September 23.

COVID-19: Briefing note #68, August 18, 2021

The pandemic’s side effects come in many forms..

As the COVID-19 pandemic wears on, its impact is obviously felt in every region, every industry, and indeed every aspect of life. Nonetheless, some of the pandemic’s side effects still have the power to surprise. This week, McKinsey looked at a few of these unexpected consequences, including an explosion in the number of online ratings consumers give to products and services, the acceleration of trends reshaping the bank workforce, dramatic changes in Chinese car-buying behavior, and the possible decline of cash as a part of everyday life.

When lockdowns forced consumers to remain at home, US e-commerce experienced ten years’ growth during the first quarter of 2020. One less discussed outcome is the surge in the volume of online ratings and reviews —40 to 80 percent higher during the core pandemic months in 2020 than they had been a year earlier. The old levers of brand equity, greater ad spending, and big promotions are simply less relevant in an age when consumers have access to so much word-of-mouth feedback. Companies, McKinsey suggests, can respond in six ways, such as adopting technological tools to analyze reviews and using consumer feedback to redesign products.

The global banking industry had already been undergoing major changes when the pandemic struck. In the previous decade, branch footprints shrunk by about 20 percent in the United States and by 60 percent in Nordic countries. McKinsey’s pre-COVID-19 research suggests that the number of people in almost all bank-branch roles will decline over the next decade. The global pandemic accelerated these banking-workforce trends , making it more important for banks to focus now on upskilling and reskilling at scale. Successful players are currently building a scalable learning infrastructure and investing in a learning culture.

Of the huge health challenges created by COVID-19, perhaps the least understood is its impact on global mental health. McKinsey interviewed Garen Staglin, the chair and cofounder of One Mind , a nonprofit whose mission is to accelerate brain-health research and mental-health advocacy. CEOs and other senior executives need to make a personal commitment to corporate behavioral-health programs if they are to succeed, he says. These leaders should focus on reducing the stigma of mental illness and on cultivating a corporate culture conducive to mental wellness.

Chinese consumers have changed their vehicle preferences and car-buying habits in the wake of COVID-19. McKinsey’s most recent survey of approximately 2,400 auto consumers in 19 major Chinese cities shows declining brand loyalty, a marked preference for trading up among consumers with less-expensive vehicles, and a significant increase in the use of digital channels during the vehicle-purchase process. While overall vehicle sales fell in China in 2020, sales of new-energy vehicles (NEVs) grew by an impressive 22 percent. Our survey reveals that 63 percent of Chinese consumers are willing to purchase NEVs, up from 20 percent in 2017.

• In an interview with McKinsey, Dr. John Nkengasong, the first director of the Africa CDC , discusses what it will take to roll out COVID-19 vaccines on a continent-wide scale, to increase vaccine manufacturing within Africa, and to enhance coordination across its borders. These outcomes could help Africa better control its response to COVID-19 and any future infectious diseases.
• China’s top manufacturers aspire to make innovative products without needing to import core technologies . To achieve these R&D goals, Chinese companies should allocate more resources to higher-risk, longer-term R&D projects and nurture creative talent by designing career pathways that reward innovation with status and incentives. Companies should also consider splitting R&D into two parts: one focused on innovation, the other on excellence in project execution.

McKinsey takes summer reading seriously. Here are some resources to help you find business books that captivate and enlighten:

In The Pay Off: How Changing the Way We Pay Changes Everything (Elliott & Thompson, July 2021), a new book coauthored with Natasha de Terán, former SWIFT CEO and McKinsey alumnus Gottfried Leibbrandt discusses how the pandemic accelerated the move away from cash. The book analyzes the implications of electronic payments—already huge in China—for banks, cryptocurrencies, and society’s relationship with money.

McKinsey’s annual reading list is back , with 100-plus book recommendations shared by more than 40 leaders and personalities. Be sure to download McKinsey’s 124-page collection   Author Talks and read some of our best interviews with authors of recently published books on business and beyond. Finally, check out McKinsey on Books  for our monthly business best-seller rankings—prepared exclusively for McKinsey Global Publishing by NPD BookScan—as well as a collection of books by McKinsey authors on the management issues that matter. Next up in books: peruse the long list for the annual  Financial Times and McKinsey Business Book of the Year Award  (the winner will be announced December 1) and register for the digital short-list-announcement  event, on September 23.

COVID-19: Briefing note #67, August 11, 2021

The delta variant threatens health, as well as recent positive economic data..

Among the many cruel and strange aspects of the COVID-19 pandemic is the fact that good and bad news often seem to arrive at the same time. Death rates may fall to new lows while case counts begin a precipitous climb; hospitalizations may drop dramatically in one region while reaching a breaking point in another. This month, McKinsey had good news to report on many aspects of the world economy, but also offered a sobering look at how variants—in particular, the Delta variant—are bringing a fresh tide of bad news.

McKinsey’s Global Economics Intelligence executive summary for July notes strengthening global industrial activity, the return of consumer demand, and growing trade momentum amid the backdrop of a worsening pandemic wave. The Delta variant of the coronavirus spread to more countries in recent weeks, and the total number of cases officially logged soared past half a million per day. The global number of deaths is now about two-thirds as high as it was at the peak of the previous wave, in April of this year. As the virus spreads, the potential rises for a vaccine-resistant strain to emerge. Meanwhile, in poorer countries, vaccines are scarce, and most populations are little protected.

Here are some other key findings from our sector research this week:

• McKinsey estimates that companies that are focused on underserved Black American consumers could tap into $300 billion of value annually . In 2019, consumer expenditures by Black households totaled approximately $835 billion; combined spending by all Black households has increased 5 percent annually over the past two decades. Serving the Black consumer well is entirely possible for companies that take the time to figure out the needs of what others may dismiss as a “niche” audience.
• Historically, few companies have organizational structures that are designed to treat sustainability as a material business issue . Companies that lead in this area often have sustainability teams embedded into business units, funds with tailored criteria allocated to sustainability investments, and sustainability-specific performance metrics.
• On the McKinsey on Consumer and Retail podcast, McKinsey partners Sebastian Gatzer and Clarisse Magnin discuss how they assumed the pandemic would distract consumers from sustainability issues. Instead, more consumers globally are saying, “I am willing to pay more” for sustainable products . Companies have to make investments and take risks in order to achieve a sustainability-based model, but overall it can pay off economically.

McKinsey takes summer reading seriously. Here are resources to help find books that captivate and enlighten:

In their newly released Nudge: The Final Edition , Harvard professor Cass Sunstein and University of Chicago professor Richard Thaler update their 2008 book on interventions aimed at getting people to act in their own best interests. In a conversation with McKinsey, the authors discuss how nudges can help people make better choices and combat “sludge,” which are processes burdened by aggravating requirements.

McKinsey’s annual reading list is back , with 100-plus book recommendations shared by more than 40 leaders and personalities. Be sure to download McKinsey’s Author Talks 124-page collection and read some of our best interviews with authors of recently published books on business and beyond. Finally, check out McKinsey on Books  for our monthly business best-seller rankings—prepared exclusively for McKinsey Global Publishing by NPD BookScan—as well as a collection of books by McKinsey authors on the management issues that matter. Next up in books: stay tuned for this year’s unveiling of the long list for the annual  Financial Times  and McKinsey Business Book of the Year Award on August 16 (the winner will be announced December 1), and register for the digital short-list-announcement event on September 23.

COVID-19: Briefing note #66, August 4, 2021

When change accelerates, so does the need to learn..

Even before the COVID-19 pandemic, uncertainty was rising. Brexit, trade disputes, and decarbonization were already having a profound impact on many industries and regions. Then the pandemic ushered in an era of shutdowns, hybrid work, and reversals, like the one some regions are experiencing now as variants bring renewed surges in case counts. This week, McKinsey examined the one constant throughout this turbulent era: the need to learn, adapt, and change.

The COVID-19 crisis and subsequent move to hybrid working models accelerated the need for new workforce skills , particularly social, emotional, and advanced cognitive abilities. Fifty-eight percent of respondents to our recent global survey  said that closing skills gaps became a higher priority since the pandemic began. That statistic only hints at the need for retraining: research  from the McKinsey Global Institute  finds that more than 100 million workers in eight large economies may need to switch occupations by 2030. Companies should make a comprehensive inventory of skills across their organizations, create “skills hubs” for ongoing learning, and build learning ecosystems through partnerships with communities and educators.

Strengthening more than 100 historically Black colleges and universities (HBCUs) in the United States could increase Black worker incomes by about $10 billion and boost the economy with $1.2 billion in incremental business profits, $300 million in decreased student-loan debt, and $1 billion in additional consumer expenditures. For some HBCUs, 2020 was their strongest-ever year of fundraising; if this level can be sustained over time, these institutions can continue the critical work they have been doing since 1837.

In this era of accelerated change, adaptability not only can but must be nurtured . Developing the adaptability muscle requires self-care, a focus on purpose, the ability to recognize the default mindset, deeper connections with colleagues, and an environment where it is safe to learn.

Large-scale government overhauls are always challenging, but are particularly difficult in times of crisis, when leaders are under pressure to deliver fast results. McKinsey’s experience is that dual focus on performance and organizational health leads to the most successful transformations. Two case studies of large US government agencies demonstrate how practices such as setting aspirational goals, creating a transformation office, and accurately assessing progress can lead to meaningful change.

• According to the popular “ Rule of 40 ” metric, a software-as-a-service company’s growth rate when added to its free cash flow rate should equal 40 percent or higher. McKinsey research finds that barely one-third of software companies achieve this. Our experts analyze the four main approaches of companies that do and suggest ways to emulate them.
• In private equity, making an “add-on” strategy work depends on the successful integration of companies. The pitfalls are many, however, and deals can wither as a result. McKinsey experts suggest best practices for optimal integrations .
• Point-of-sale financing in the United States has grown significantly over the past 24 months. McKinsey provides an overview of the “ buy now, pay later ” market, details key factors influencing growth, and offers ideas for market entry for banks and partnerships for merchants.
• The rise of autonomous vehicles is shifting demand for automotive chips. McKinsey analyzes the current semiconductor market , which includes some OEMs considering in-house design.

Our Author Talks series features Michael Useem, a professor at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School, where he is also the director of the Center for Leadership and Change Management. He discusses his new book The Edge: How 10 CEOs Learned to Lead—and the Lessons for Us All , which explores the thought processes behind leaders’ pivotal choices. Also on Author Talks , Jeffrey E. Garten discusses his book, Three Days at Camp David: How a Secret Meeting in 1971 Transformed the Global Economy . The former dean of the Yale School of Management and undersecretary of commerce in the Clinton administration examines the end of the gold standard and its ramifications for world markets. Our most recent edition of McKinsey for Kids introduces younger audiences to mangrove forests and explains why building a “business case” for mangroves can help protect Bengal tigers and king cobras. For more perspectives, please see the full collection  of our coronavirus-related content, visual insights from our “ chart of the day ,”  a curated collection of our first 100 articles  relating to the coronavirus, our suite of tools  to help leaders respond to the pandemic, and how our editors choose images   that help readers visualize the impact of an invisible threat.

COVID-19: Briefing note #65, July 28, 2021

It’s time to focus on healing..

The $1.5 trillion global wellness market —encompassing health, fitness, nutrition, appearance, sleep, and mindfulness—is growing at 5 to 10 percent a year. It makes sense that consumers, after everything they have endured throughout the COVID-19 crisis, are seeking ways to take control of their well-being. Sectors including travel and education are also focusing on recovering from their pandemic wounds. This week, McKinsey took a deep dive into how a range of companies are trying to help consumers heal, and how companies and sectors can heal themselves.

As part of our series on The Next Normal , McKinsey experts forecast what the wellness industry will look like by the end of the decade . By 2030, consumers may get tattoos where they buy mascara; seek advice from the fridge, which talked to the mattress, about what to eat in order to sleep better; and triage their medical conditions at home before reaching out to a doctor. As consumers increasingly consider wellness when they make purchases, the opportunity to serve their needs is growing.

Over the past year, McKinsey has interviewed a number of wellness-industry leaders. Shaun Robert Jenkins, head coach of fitness studio Tone House , in New York City, discusses overcoming pandemic-related obstacles with a brand focused on omnichannel delivery, community, and authentic extensions and partnerships. Nick Vlahos, CEO of The Honest Company , talks about building a relationship with a consumer at the pivotal moment when she is pregnant with her first child. Brian McNamara, CEO of GlaxoSmithKline Consumer Healthcare , and Scott Melville, CEO of the Consumer Healthcare Products Association, both predict a future in which consumers will proactively manage their own health.

Appearances seemed to matter less to many people under lockdowns during the pandemic, which likely helped contribute to the 33 percent drop in global sales that the beauty industry suffered in 2020. On the McKinsey on Consumer and Retail podcast , McKinsey experts discuss the incipient rebound that is occurring in the fragrance category. Beauty brands are bouncing back , with quiz-type diagnostics that help consumers discover new products in a fun way; personalized packaging; and a wider adoption of “social selling,” which is already gaining traction in China.

Mental healthcare is a key component of wellness, but the stigma that surrounds mental-health conditions often prevents sufferers from seeking treatment. Companies can combat mental-health stigma  by providing all employees with education on the topic, training managers to recognize the signs of mental illness and substance abuse, and adopting nonstigmatizing language.

Healing is vitally needed in K–12 education , where the average student is now five months behind in math and four months behind in reading. The economic ripple effects may cause a $128 billion to $188 billion loss to the US economy once these students enter the workforce. Educators should work to safely reopen schools, use outreach programs to reengage students who have disconnected from learning, and help make up for learning loss with tutoring and after-school programs. Moreover, the education system should consider exploring ways to benefit from technology, hybrid models, remote learning, homeschooling, and learning hubs over the long term.

Travel is another sector that has emerged bruised from pandemic lockdowns. To prepare for a rebound, the travel industry must  build capacity, invest aggressively in digital innovation, and look for collaboration opportunities to help make flying easier for consumers. An app that would allow travelers to manage verified certifications for COVID-19 vaccines and test results, for example, would be handy. In a recent interview, Airbnb CEO Brian Chesky explains how the company experienced wild highs and lows throughout the pandemic : early on, the business dropped 80 percent in eight weeks and the company had to lay off 25 percent of its workforce. But by the end of the year, the company had launched a successful IPO.

Our most recent edition of McKinsey for Kids introduces younger audiences to mangrove forests and explains why building a “business case” for mangroves can help protect Bengal tigers and king cobras. For more perspectives, please see the full collection  of our coronavirus-related content, visual insights from our “ chart of the day ,”  a curated collection of our first 100 articles  relating to the coronavirus, our suite of tools  to help leaders respond to the pandemic, and how our editors choose images   that help readers visualize the impact of an invisible threat.

COVID-19: Briefing note #64, July 21, 2021

How does it end—and where does it leave us.

Case numbers are resurging in parts of the world where the COVID-19 pandemic was waning, falling in places that saw huge surges recently, and just beginning to rise in previously little-impacted parts of the globe. Trying to determine the end of a story while the plot is still twisting is difficult. But this week, McKinsey sought answers to the burning questions of how the pandemic can finally be vanquished and how vaccines can reach the world, as well as what companies can do to mitigate new geopolitical risks and cope with inflation and volatility.

While 49.6 percent of inhabitants of high-income countries had received at least one dose of the vaccine as of July 14, only 1 percent of those in low-income countries had.

The world is unlikely to ever reach global herd immunity, but it can contain the virus with a combination of vaccines, improved testing, and smarter quarantining, based on known outbreaks, rather than large, blunt lockdowns. This was one conclusion of an interdisciplinary panel of global-health, national-security, and technology experts that McKinsey assembled to envision how the pandemic might end . By 2025, COVID-19 will have cost the world between $16 trillion and $35 trillion. A multifaceted approach to solving this pandemic and averting others should include scaling nanobiophysics technology in order to create precision molecular testing and improving data-sharing systems.

Dr. Seth Berkley, CEO of Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance (a public–private global-health partnership that works to increase access to immunization in poor countries), spoke with McKinsey about the effort to get COVID-19 vaccines into arms across the world . Through a partnership with 193 countries and territories, Gavi has been involved in securing two billion doses of COVID-19 vaccines for the second half of 2021, with the goal of immunizing every healthcare worker in the world. Obstacles to worldwide vaccination remain huge: while 49.6 percent of inhabitants of high-income countries had received at least one dose of the vaccine as of July 14, only 1 percent of those in low-income countries had.

The velocity of change coming out of the pandemic is generating new forms of financial and operational risk as companies grapple with inflation, capacity constraints, and supply-chain disruptions. Higher inflation has returned to the United States and the European Union, with volatility in prices for commodities including lumber and steel. To strategize for both the near and long term, companies are wise to establish procurement nerve centers  that bring together specialists in supply chain, planning, finance, operations, and engineering.

In the next two decades, competition for global influence is likely to reach its highest level since the Cold War. Current tensions are most apparent in the unfolding competition between China and the United States, the homes of 76 of the world’s 100 most valuable companies. To manage geopolitical risk , boards should devote time to big-picture questions. Companies also need to think critically about their corporate narratives and decide whether they are global entities or whether ties to a specific country or region are more important.

Other key findings from our sector research this week:

• Car sales and production have come roaring back , but today’s consumers, suppliers, and dealers demand more digital, connected, and electric vehicles. Automakers will have to hire more software engineers and reskill up to one-quarter of their current workforces.
• Climate change poses specific risks for urban areas, 90 percent of which are coastal. By 2050, more than 800 million urban residents could be affected by sea-level rise and coastal flooding. A report cowritten by McKinsey and C40 Cities Climate Leadership, a network of large cities committed to addressing climate change, identifies 15 high-potential actions that can work for many types of cities .
• Investors apply risk premiums too aggressively when assessing emerging markets , McKinsey research finds. Business leaders can rely on the same valuation principles and approaches they would use to assess investments in developed markets.

Our Author Talks series features Melody Wilding, an executive coach, licensed social worker, and professor of human behavior about her book Trust Yourself: Stop Overthinking and Channel Your Emotions for Success at Work . She addresses the complexity of being both highly sensitive and high achieving, a combination she says can be a competitive advantage in those who know how to overcome self-doubt. Our most recent edition of McKinsey for Kids introduces younger audiences to mangrove forests and explains why building a “business case” for mangroves can help protect Bengal tigers and king cobras. For more perspectives, please see the full collection  of our coronavirus-related content, visual insights from our “ chart of the day ,”  a curated collection of our first 100 articles  relating to the coronavirus, our suite of tools  to help leaders respond to the pandemic, and how our editors choose images   that help readers visualize the impact of an invisible threat.

COVID-19: Briefing note #63, July 14, 2021

The future of work is far from settled..

The COVID-19 pandemic ushered in the opportunity to rethink how we work. It’s a sea change that occurs less than once in a generation and has the potential to reshape society in countless ways. This week, McKinsey examined the need for humility as leaders, organizations, and employees grapple with learning best practices, testing solutions, and admitting that nobody has all the answers in hand.

Companies risk alienating their employees—and even losing them—if they refuse to acknowledge the disconnect between how employers and their workers see the future . Employers want to reestablish normality by bringing workers back to the office; employees want far more work-from-home. For employers, the risks are high: recent surveys found that 40 percent of workers globally are considering leaving their current employers by the end of the year. Companies must acknowledge that figuring out a hybrid working model will be a long-term project and require a significant period of testing and learning.

Research with more than 500 senior executives across eight industries helped McKinsey identify key things companies should do to create a robust and productive operating model for hybrid work . Companies that increased performance throughout the pandemic invested more time crafting clear goals and clarifying strategy; empowered small, cross-silo teams to make decisions; spent more time on coaching and recognition; and adopted new collaboration technologies. Going back to the office isn’t a silver bullet, especially in light of weary and stressed workforces. Instead, companies need to build muscle in these key areas in order to make a return to the workplace successful.

Since the start of the pandemic, 42 percent of employees globally have reported a decline in mental health. Mental-health conditions cause absenteeism, presenteeism, and approximately $1 trillion worth of lost productivity a year, according to the World Health Organization. The good news is that a meta-analysis shows that for every dollar companies spent on wellness programs, their healthcare costs fell by approximately $3.27 and their absenteeism costs by about $2.73. McKinsey identified six main types of digital offerings that could be helpful for companies implementing an employee well-being strategy . These include mindfulness tools, data-collection wearables, meditation and hypnosis apps, and virtual mental-health services.

Forward-thinking retail companies are creating thoughtful guidelines for hybrid work , training employees to bounce back from burnout, and proactively reskilling their workforces. On the McKinsey on Consumer and Retail podcast, partners Bryan Hancock and Ashish Kothari discuss retail companies that need to add new skills because of the sectors’ mass pivot to omnichannel during the pandemic. They share examples of companies that have replaced some work with automation and then redirected employees’ time and energy to new tasks that can grow the business.

Chairman and CEO of State Street Corporation Ron O’Hanley oversees one of the oldest American financial institutions, with $38.0 trillion in assets under custody and administration, and $3.5 trillion in assets under management. On the Inside the Strategy Room podcast, he talks about his view of taking a stand on environmental, social, and corporate governance issues as part of mitigating investment risk. Remote work has made it harder to give employees opportunities for apprenticeship, slowed innovation, and created mental-health risks. Communicating to employees how values play into the big picture helps reestablish bonds.

• Seth Moore, former chief strategy and analytics officer of online retailer Overstock.com, who is now a senior adviser to McKinsey, clears up several misconceptions about dynamic pricing in a retail context . It’s not about changing prices frequently, nor is it a blend of art and science. It’s plain old science, whereby an algorithm can increase the rate at which a retailer makes good pricing decisions. Personalizing prices for customers is a delicate matter; the best strategy is to offer “just for you” discounts that make a shopper feel like they won something.
• McKinsey’s analysis of 54 markets around the world found that over half of all postal carriers are well positioned to enter the financial-services market . If postal executives can leverage their existing distribution networks to provide financial services, their companies could become a more integral part of their customers’ everyday lives and create enduring business models.

Our Author Talks series features Shankar Vedantam, host of NPR’s Hidden Brain podcast, about his book Useful Delusions: The Power and Paradox of the Self-Deceiving Brain   (W. W. Norton, March 2021), coauthored with Bill Mesler. No one likes the idea of being duped, but our ability to persuade ourselves enables bonds and passions that logic would rule out. Our most recent edition of McKinsey for Kids introduces younger audiences to mangrove forests and explains why building a “business case” for mangroves can help protect Bengal tigers and king cobras. For more perspectives, please see the full collection  of our coronavirus-related content, visual insights from our “ chart of the day ,”  a curated collection of our first 100 articles  relating to the coronavirus, our suite of tools  to help leaders respond to the pandemic, and how our editors choose images   that help readers visualize the impact of an invisible threat.

COVID-19: Briefing note #62, July 7, 2021

When two distinct goals are imperative, the only choice is to solve for both..

Throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, businesses and governments faced the need to solve multiple, competing priorities simultaneously. One of the toughest: how to keep an economy going while at the same time shutting it down to protect citizens from infection. As some regions emerge from the worst of the health crisis, it’s tempting to think that there could be a return to focusing on just one main concern. But this week, McKinsey experts examined sectors, particularly defense and national infrastructure, where solving for dual imperatives is more important than ever.

Defense forces, which typically account for at least 50 percent of governments’ carbon emissions, could help prevent climate change —and the many risks it implies—by taking dramatic action to decarbonize. Obstacles to change include the primacy of having mission-critical capability and long equipment life cycles (which means fossil-fuel-powered equipment in use now, or coming into service shortly, will still be fielded in 2050). But defense forces can begin setting priorities for decarbonization by categorizing their emissions as those for which they are directly responsible and those resulting from the supply chain, and by how much emissions reductions would impact mission-critical initiatives.

The May 2021 ransomware attack on Colonial Pipeline, the United States’ largest pipeline network for delivery of refined petroleum products, made one thing clear: national critical infrastructure just inherited a new imperative, which is to build cyber resilience . In light of the new level of threat, companies will have to improve their knowledge of their own operations and vulnerabilities and establish high-fidelity baselines for the devices on their networks so they can detect subtle anomalies. Owners and operators must move to a zero-trust mindset and need to improve their systems’ ability to respond and establish control.

In the not-so-distant future, waste products such as used cooking oils and agricultural residues will fuel airplanes in the sky . One country championing the use of such sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs) is India. McKinsey’s recent report with the World Economic Forum’s Clean Skies for Tomorrow Coalition —which is working toward making carbon-zero flying a reality by the middle of the century—is a blueprint for India’s ongoing transition to SAFs. The coalition’s community in India has set the goal of flying 100 million passengers on SAFs at a 10 percent blend by 2030.

• On the Inside the Strategy Room podcast, Tanya Baker, global leader of Goldman Sach’s internal incubator GS Accelerate, talks about what it takes to foster entrepreneurship . Two big lessons: if you have to choose between a great idea and a great team of people, pick the people, because ultimately talent rules outcomes. Her second takeaway: people who have been successful in other roles at Goldman Sachs are not always the same people who will succeed at building a new business. Entrepreneurship often requires a separate set of skills.
• On The McKinsey Podcast , senior partners Kim Baroudy and Massimo Mazza discuss the state of entrepreneurship outside the confines of Silicon Valley . Europe’s fragmentation—its 24 languages and multiple regulatory environments—is a hidden strength, as it forces founders to think internationally. Capital growth and the kinds of companies achieving scale in Latin America is changing fast. Silicon Valley can feel flattered by imitation, as tech hubs grow in Tel Aviv, São Paulo, Frankfurt, London, Shanghai, Paris, Berlin, and Stockholm.
• How did Nordic companies come to form the vanguard of innovation in digital, mobile, and instant payments ? Claus Bunkenborg, CEO of MobilePay; Peter Klein, executive vice president, strategy and solutions, for new payment platforms at Mastercard; and Lars Sjögren, CEO of P27 Nordic Payments, discuss the influence of Nordic history and business culture on the sector. One theory: a history of wars has forced these small countries to learn to compromise and collaborate.

Our most recent edition of McKinsey for Kids introduces younger audiences to mangrove forests and explains why building a business case for mangroves can help protect Bengal tigers and king cobras. For more perspectives, please see the full collection  of our coronavirus-related content, visual insights from our “ chart of the day ,”  a curated collection of our first 100 articles  relating to the coronavirus, our suite of tools  to help leaders respond to the pandemic, and how our editors choose images   that help readers visualize the impact of an invisible threat.

COVID-19: Briefing note #61, June 30, 2021

How do we make technology rise to our aspirations.

Part of the great reset, as companies and countries envision a post-COVID-19 future, is rethinking how technology can serve our needs. Science-fiction scenarios may depict computers developing minds of their own, but the work of updating algorithms, adjusting risk models, and deciding how data will be leveraged is still very much a human job. This week, McKinsey made the case for why open-data ecosystems for finance is the next frontier and examined the technology rethink required in retail, insurance, banking, automotive, photonics, and biotech.

Robust digital financial infrastructure proved its worth during the COVID-19-crisis, helping governments cushion people and businesses from the economic shock. The McKinsey Global Institute  discusses the next step: economies that embrace data sharing for finance  could see GDP gains of between 1 and 5 percent by 2030, with benefits flowing to both consumers and financial institutions. The research examines 24 use cases in banking and payments, focusing on the European Union, United States, United Kingdom, and India.

The retailer of the future  will harness the power of data, quantum computing, artificial intelligence, and augmented reality, says serial entrepreneur and senior adviser to McKinsey John Straw on the McKinsey on Consumer and Retail podcast. The biggest mistake retail companies make? Unwillingness to invest in something that doesn’t automatically feed the bottom line. The biggest win: using cutting-edge technology to give consumers a way of envisioning their lives if they go ahead and buy.

In a McKinsey Quarterly  interview, Bart Schlatmann, the CEO of Allianz Direct, discusses how to build a scalable, new, digital business inside of an older, more established company . The direct-to-consumer insurance business inside financial-services giant Allianz serves multiple European markets on a single platform. The CEO’s first move was to put himself under pressure: with approximately 70 engineers, he promised to launch a business in two markets within 18 months.

The COVID-19 pandemic created significant challenges for financial institutions in both modeling and model-risk management. Institutions should use six strategies to update their models , including using agile modeling, upgrading data architecture, and embracing automation.

Batteries and fuel cells get the attention, but hydrogen combustion  is a nascent zero-emissions technology that some automotive OEMs, component suppliers, and start-ups are reconsidering. Low capital-expenditure requirements for combustion engines, decreasing hydrogen prices, and the relative efficiency of some types of vehicles are making this technology, once considered too expensive, increasingly relevant.

Another technology ripe for reinvention is photonics . Although the laser market has steadily increased since the 1970s, innovation and revenue growth have slowed over the past decade. The creation of integrated devices combining lasers, sensors, and optics could usher in a new age of opportunity.

Europe’s biotech industry has remained resilient through one of the worst economic crises in decades. Despite a brief downturn in 2020, share-price evolution has been positive overall since the beginning of the pandemic, and funding continues to grow at a record rate. Future success will depend on improving the translation of research into new companies, raising more capital, cultivating entrepreneurial talent, and building global networks.

• A McKinsey Global Institute  survey of 18,000 people in 15 counties identified 56 foundational skills that can help future-proof workforces . One revelation: though numerous skills are associated with having a university degree, for “self-confidence,” “courage and risk-taking,” and “empathy,” there is no such association. Scholars can puzzle over this: more education was associated with lower proficiency of some valuable traits, such as “humility.”
• The combination of increased burnout among women and the hold placed on diversity and inclusion initiatives has put consumer-goods and retail companies at a greater risk of losing diverse talent . Companies should ensure flexible work and employee well-being and create programs to promote diverse hiring and promotion.

COVID-19: Briefing note #60, June 23, 2021

With enough data and insight, can we get a peek at the future.

“Business forecasting exists to make astrology look good,” says McKinsey’s global managing partner Kevin Sneader, paraphrasing John Kenneth Galbraith’s famous quip before outlining eight trends that he predicts will define 2021 and beyond. Despite the complexity of trying to peer into the future, this week McKinsey experts propose what’s ahead for capital markets, corporate organization, and medical research. In a deep analysis of the state of Black America, our experts envision what the future could be for nearly 13 percent of the US labor force.

To get a handle on what’s to come, McKinsey finance and risk experts, with input from the McKinsey Global Institute , offer eight charts depicting the retreat of the virus in some regions, increasing economic stability, and near-term growth . Further charts examine how economies have recovered from crises in the past and model possible outcomes.

On the Inside the Strategy Room podcast, Sneader discusses the eight trends that will shape the post-COVID-19 economy . He predicts that e-grocery and telemedicine will stick and that “revenge travel,” where people vacation after being cooped up, will kick in. Companies will likely focus on developing more resilient supply chains and attempting to recover in ways that meet their sustainability targets. More than anything, pandemic-era innovations will reshape life for a long time to come.

What will the future look like for Black Americans , who make up 12.9 percent of the US labor force but earn only 9.6 percent of total wages? Achieving better standards of living, jobs, education, healthcare, food, and consumer goods will depend on changes to the world Black people currently face. The McKinsey Global Institute  concluded that hiring with a diversity focus, strengthening schools, upgrading the quality of jobs that many Black workers currently have, and supporting Black entrepreneurs are key to closing the prosperity gap.

On The McKinsey Podcast , organizational experts Chris Gagnon and Elizabeth Mygatt discuss how companies can future-proof  themselves, making them more able to handle disruptions like the one they just went through. Leaders should examine their company’s value agenda as though they were a private-equity firm scrutinizing a potential deal. Being clear about what everyone is trying to accomplish helps leaders choose the right talent, create a project-oriented organization, and build up speed.

Some companies are using their plans for a COVID-19 as the basis for complete strategy overhauls. But not every company wants or needs to do that. Instead, they can use strategy inserts  or short interventions. In particular, companies should examine opportunities to allocate resources to growth pockets, get ahead of climate risks, and adopt new technologies.

"Rollercoaster" is one term that’s been used to describe the performance of capital markets during the pandemic . McKinsey finance experts Tim Koller and Peter Stumpner provide more nuance and reflection on the Inside the Strategy Room podcast. After the big market drop last year, a handful of companies—mostly in the tech, electric vehicle, and semiconductor industries—began diverging from the market. The result is the Mega 25, companies that accounted for 40 percent of the total market cap added in one year. The experts discuss how sustainable these valuations are and whether the word “bubble” applies.

• Quantum computing has the potential to accelerate drug development exponentially . The biggest impact will be in the hypothesis-formation phase, because of how much faster and more accurately molecular properties can be predicted.
• Supply chains, even in heavy industry and other energy- and resource-intensive sectors, can decarbonize . Companies should focus on improving carbon accounting, filling in data gaps, and forming alliances to create new supply ecosystems. Once they have reduced energy and materials waste, they need to examine the “Scope 3” emissions that occur up and down their value stream.
• A McKinsey Global Institute  survey of 860 executives found that companies in the top quartile for growth invested 2.6 times as much in intangibles  as those in the bottom two quartiles. Intangibles include research, technology, software, advertising and branding, and human capital.

Our Author Talks series features Mia Bay, a professor of American history at the University of Pennsylvania, discussing her new book Traveling Black: A Story of Race and Resistance (Harvard University Press, 2021). Bay examines the history of exclusion and harassment Black Americans have faced as they attempted to drive, fly, park, lodge, or even eat on the road. Our most recent edition of McKinsey for Kids introduces younger audiences to mangrove forests and explains why building a “business case” for mangroves can help protect Bengal tigers and king cobras. For more perspectives, please see the full collection  of our coronavirus-related content, visual insights from our “ chart of the day ,”  a curated collection of our first 100 articles  relating to the coronavirus, our suite of tools  to help leaders respond to the pandemic, and how our editors choose images   that help readers visualize the impact of an invisible threat.

COVID-19: Briefing note #59, June 16, 2021

Life beyond the covid-19 pandemic holds much promise..

There’s a lot to look forward to once the COVID-19 pandemic eventually fades into history. As viral-spread and economic-fallout curves both flatten in some parts of the world, signs of change and growth indicate a bright future. Our central pandemic-related analysis this week explores a possible new age of global prosperity, with high rates of economic growth and surging healthcare innovation. Individual groups and industries—including Black US entrepreneurs, medical researchers, and the hospitality sector—have the opportunity to benefit from a reset in context and attitudes.

In the postpandemic era, much is possible. Just with the technology that is currently available—no unheard-of breakthrough required—it’s possible to achieve 3 to 4 percent global economic growth each year for a decade. Leaders won’t need to make a hard choice between sustained and inclusive growth. Instead, growth can be better overall if it’s more equitable. The pandemic experience provoked what could become a renaissance in public-health innovation and delivery. McKinsey’s analysis goes deep and broad to discover what could happen next .

Black US entrepreneurs face unequal access to capital , which makes recovery harder for their businesses. But the recent racial-equity  reckoning in the United States has focused multiple industries on finding solutions to that and other obstacles for Black business owners. Banks can increase access to capital, and corporations can offer emergency grants. Financial institutions can both increase financial education and design systems that are more user friendly and communicative.

With the technology that is currently available—no unheard-of breakthrough required—it’s possible to achieve 3 to 4 percent global economic growth each year for a decade.

How can corporations maintain their cultures in a world of hybrid work? On the McKinsey Talks Talent podcast, talent experts Bryan Hancock, Bill Schaninger, and Brooke Weddle discuss the opportunity that companies have to reinvent their cultures . Leaders can focus on helping employees find purpose and make the office the new off site, a place where intentional togetherness occurs. There is a risk, however, that a divide will grow between remote workers and those who come into the office.

If the office is the new off site, the home is the new clinical-trial site. To the growing list of unintended pandemic consequences, add the decentralization of clinical trials . In the face of severe disruption to clinical-trial research during lockdowns, trial sponsors mobilized rapidly to preserve continuity of care and data integrity—for example, by adopting remote consent and patient monitoring, videoconference assessments, and at-home phlebotomy. The medical industry can now build on the unplanned migration to off-site trial settings.

Leisure travel, particularly to outdoor and beach settings, is likely to be a bright spot in the US hospitality industry’s recovery. In a video conversation, Vik Krishnan, leader of McKinsey’s work in the US travel industry, discusses the hospitality sector  and suggests pockets of emerging demand in which industry leaders should focus resources.

The Inside the Strategy Room podcast steps back and examines lessons from the pandemic experience of managing through extreme uncertainty . McKinsey experts Patrick Finn, Mihir Mysore, and Ophelia Usher discuss how leaders must be willing to revisit assumptions, change direction, and admit mistakes when the firmament is shaking. Also key: an integrated nerve center of decision makers who can think and act quickly. Above all, leaders who have lived through hardships are essential in such circumstances.

Our Author Talks series features Kirsten Neff, an associate professor of educational psychology at the University of Texas at Austin, discussing her new book Fierce Self-Compassion: How Women Can Harness Kindness to Speak Up, Claim their Power and Thrive . Neff examines why women shame themselves for failure and how they can learn to be kind to themselves while fighting for their professional wants and needs. Our most recent edition of McKinsey for Kids introduces younger audiences to mangrove forests and explains why building a “business case” for mangroves can help protect Bengal tigers and king cobras. For more perspectives, please see the full collection  of our coronavirus-related content, visual insights from our “ chart of the day ,”  a curated collection of our first 100 articles  relating to the coronavirus, our suite of tools  to help leaders respond to the pandemic, and how our editors choose images   that help readers visualize the impact of an invisible threat.

COVID-19: Briefing note #58, June 9, 2021

Understanding who we have become..

Change accelerates under pressure, as illustrated by the last year and a quarter. This week, McKinsey drilled into numerous changes that have reset the context for companies, employees, and societies. McKinsey experts analyzed changes to consumer profiles in Asia, the consequences of women’s exodus from the workforce, and why more than 70 HR leaders believe this is a new era for their profession. Our author interview this week  suggests a way of getting a handle on the ever-morphing human landscape: we all need to become anthropologists, skilled in recognizing the cultural patterns around us (see more on our latest Author Talks below).

Half of global consumption growth over the next decade will come from Asia, according to research from the McKinsey Global Institute . Falling poverty rates, rising incomes, shrinking household size, aging populations, and more women earning more money are all factors reshaping Asian consumer trends . Those who wish to sell to these consumers need to understand factors including their growing interest in sustainability, Asian brands, and new forms of ownership. Another trend to keep in mind: inequality is growing and was likely exacerbated by the pandemic.

HR leaders believe their profession has transformed in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic. After years of pressure to digitize their roles and move employees into “self serve” solutions, McKinsey’s interviews with more than 70 chief HR officers in Europe revealed an impulse to revive human interaction. These leaders believe they must engage personally to bring in and retain strategic talent and improve morale. One reason for the pivot: they learned during the pandemic, when decisions had to be made at lightning speed, that leadership talent is everywhere and just needs the right support to flourish.

Pressure can accelerate change, but sometimes reverses it. That’s the sad story behind the 2.3 million US women who left the workforce in the first year of the pandemic . The latest US Bureau of Labor statistics show that recent employment gains dramatically favor men. A political scientist who studies this “shecession” and an HR executive who left her job to oversee her children’s online schooling discuss the lost paychecks, stalled careers, and lower lifetime earning that could reverberate for decades to come.

Another thing women lose by leaving the workforce? Purpose. McKinsey organizational experts found that 70 percent of people say they derive their purpose in life through their work. On The McKinsey Podcast , partner Naina Dhingra and senior partner Bill Schaninger discuss why companies should serve as conduits for the unique purpose of each of their employees , rather than imposers of a collective purpose. The pandemic has made employees contemplate these questions more than ever, with millennials the most concerned that work provides a sense of meaning.

US healthcare consumers say they gained weight, exercised less, and delayed care throughout the pandemic. Their view of healthcare providers and what they want in the future changed too, according to McKinsey surveys. Healthcare providers should adapt to the post-COVID-19 environment  by focusing on the “whole person” and offering incentives to both consumers and providers to research costs and options.

• Nordic companies, with their legacies of long-term focus on environmental issues, seem well-positioned to outperform while companies around the world catch up on sustainability. But a McKinsey analysis showed that many Nordic firms trail their global peers. Solutions for Nordic companies to return to growth and scale  include making a deal a year, spending more, and setting ambitious productivity-improvement goals.
• Sales of battery-electric vehicles are expected to grow 25 percent annually through 2030. With costs and competition increasing for charge-point operators, growth will come from differentiation  of location, charging speed, and partnerships.
• Companies can get the most out of their platform transformations if they decide whether to be orchestrators or providers, design incentives that attract the right participants, and improve technology with cloud infrastructure and a software-as-a-service approach.
• Banks can more efficiently combat money laundering by adopting end-to-end straight-through processing . Automating the “know your customer” process also makes things smoother for customers and less tedious for employees.
• The market for biosimilars is expected to double in size to more than $30 billion by 2025 and more than $60 billion by 2030. Biosimilars companies who accelerate development and tailor approaches to each country’s market will be best positioned  to take advantage of this growth.

Our Author Talks series features Gillian Tett, the Financial Times markets and finance columnist and US managing editor, on her book Anthro-Vision: A New Way to See in Business and Life . Tett explores how anthropologists get inside the minds of people in order to understand other cultures and how leaders can do the same to appraise their own environments. Our most recent edition of McKinsey for Kids introduces younger audiences to mangrove forests and explains why building a “business case” for mangroves can help protect Bengal tigers and king cobras. For more perspectives, please see the full collection  of our coronavirus-related content, visual insights from our “ chart of the day ,”  a curated collection of our first 100 articles  relating to the coronavirus, our suite of tools  to help leaders respond to the pandemic, and how our editors choose images   that help readers visualize the impact of an invisible threat.

COVID-19: Briefing note #57, June 2, 2021

Problems were to be expected, but not these problems..

The pandemic has left businesses and governments to grapple with a perplexing collection of supply-chain and logistical disruptions. Over a year ago, we knew we were facing upheavals in health, education, and workplace systems. Ramifications such as the semiconductor shortage, however, were harder to predict. This week, McKinsey examined a variety of unexpected pandemic consequences and looked for ways to address them.

The global semiconductor shortage threatens economic recoveries and poses an urgent problem for carmakers, which have already announced production rollbacks—and billions of dollars in expected revenue losses—as a result. McKinsey experts examined the causes of the shortage, including a drop in consumer demand for vehicles at the onset of the pandemic, which prompted semiconductor suppliers to shift production to other products. Automakers and suppliers should consider significant strategic changes to head off a repeat.

Grocery is another industry that has been turned upside down by the pandemic , not once but multiple times as consumers respond to the evolving situation. At Tesco, online sales doubled  in the United Kingdom, where the company has a strong online business, and in Central Europe, where growth is coming off a low base, said Matthew Simister, Tesco’s Central Europe CEO, in an interview. Growing e-grocery leads to the question of whether brick-and-mortar grocers will survive  in Europe, and if so, which formats are best positioned for success? McKinsey identified amply stocked “soft discounters” and moderately sized, centrally located “hypermarkets light” as winning models. Leading players are participating in the automated warehouse revolution  that is lowering labor costs and supporting e-grocery. Another crucial tactic: convincing shoppers that a grocer offers the best value  by strategically discounting, improving private-label lines, and offering a large variety of cheap products.

The devastation in India is among the saddest unanticipated turns in the pandemic. After the first wave of the disease faded quickly in 2020, the current disaster took the lives of nearly 28,000 people in one week last month, amid 2.3 million new reported cases. The world should take action, write partner Pooja Kumar and senior partner Navjot Singh, with support for oxygen and vaccine production and distribution. Such help not only serves a humanitarian purpose but also lowers the risk that variants will threaten recoveries elsewhere.

Some of the health repercussions of the pandemic are indirect, such as the side effect of fewer people seeking treatment for mental and behavioral health problems. McKinsey’s behavioral-health-services interactive tracks how many people are accessing care for problems including substance abuse and serious mental illness.

• Large companies create flows to households in OECD economies differently today compared with 25 years ago. The McKinsey Global Institute  mapped the pathways through which a dollar of company revenue reaches households. Comparing two periods, 1994–96 and 2016–18, productivity gains amounted to 25 percent in real terms, though wages grew only 11 percent. Where did the gains from labor productivity go? Predominantly to capital income.
• Industrial companies can digitally transform with six building blocks, including upskilling and focusing on data management. There’s good reason to try: a McKinsey analysis of 350 industrial companies found that those that made investments in automation, e-commerce, and other areas achieved higher revenues and total returns to shareholders than digital laggards.
• Refrigeration pioneer Dometic Group has spent the past 100 years innovating into areas including mobile homes, sports and outdoor tools, and home food and beverage equipment. On the Inside the Strategy Room podcast, Peter Kjellberg, chief marketing officer and head of global verticals at Dometic, explains his system to test whether a company will support a brand reinvention: look into the CEO’s eyes, and if he or she does not display genuine enthusiasm, forget it.

Our Author Talks series features Shankar Vedantam, host of NPR’s Hidden Brain podcast, about his Useful Delusions: The Power and Paradox of the Self-Deceiving Brain , coauthored with Bill Mesler. No one likes the idea of being duped, but our ability to persuade ourselves enables bonds and passions that logic would rule out. Our most recent edition of McKinsey for Kids introduces younger audiences to mangrove forests and explains why building a “business case” for mangroves can help protect Bengal tigers and king cobras. For more perspectives, please see the full collection  of our coronavirus-related content, visual insights from our “ chart of the day ,”  a curated collection of our first 100 articles  relating to the coronavirus, our suite of tools  to help leaders respond to the pandemic, and how our editors choose images   that help readers visualize the impact of an invisible threat.

COVID-19: Briefing note #56, May 26, 2021

How can we prepare better for next time.

When a crisis turns into a recovery, or vice versa, leaders must toggle between managing for the present and the future. This week, McKinsey examined how sectors including health, air travel, consumer retail, and wealth management can plan for the long term even as they cope with the immediate disruptions of the pandemic. The bottom line: modeling, predicting, and planning are all important, but investing with courage is essential.

Five dollars a person. That’s how much McKinsey’s experts project it will cost to prevent another pandemic like COVID-19 , which has caused what may become a $16 trillion global economic disruption. By spending a total of $357 billion over the next decade on preparations including pathogen surveillance, global immunization, and medical supply stockpiles, countries can reduce the likelihood of a repeat.

Other health concerns need preventative action too. Europe can improve the medical conditions that erode roughly 15 percent of its GDP  by investing in solutions for mental health, obesity, back pain, diabetes, and smoking, among other problems. The pandemic’s devastating consequences—a half-million lives and 7.5 percent of GDP lost in 2020 alone—have created a unique moment for Europe to rethink health-resource allocation, funding, and delivery models.

On The McKinsey Podcast , the firm’s air-travel experts Alex Dichter and Robin Riedel discuss the near- and long-term concerns of the air-travel industry , which suffered roughly half a trillion dollars in revenue loss in 2020. Airlines are thinking about safety, recovering business, and how to bring back employees and equipment. In the future, sustainability, cargo by drone, and customer experience will be among the top priorities.

Let there be no doubt: top executives confirm that their organizations are switching to hybrid for work  that isn’t essential to perform on site. The Five Fifty , a quick look accompanied by a deep dive, illustrates that while leaders know hybrid is the future, they and their employees are mired in doubt and anxiety about what it all means.

It was a year of big percentages for European grocers : in 2020, the online grocery channel grew by 55 percent, 60 percent of customers changed their shopping behaviors, and the industry sold 8 percent more groceries by volume. Looking ahead, European grocers should expect grocery spending to decrease slightly, some of the behavioral changes to stick, and healthy and sustainable food preferences to grow.

An April McKinsey survey of 29,000 respondents in 24 countries found that while the pandemic drove rapid adoption of digital channels, growth has plateaued in the past six months and may begin to slip back as the virus retreats. Companies can hold onto new digital customers  by gaining their trust, investing in “ phygital ,” and innovating to provide excellent experiences, particularly in education, grocery, and healthcare.

COVID-19 underscored how important it is to have tools that improve decision making in a crisis. One such tool is “nowcasting,” a prediction model that uses complex econometric techniques and contemporaneous data to provide a timely view of economic indicators. McKinsey experts suggest a new approach to nowcasting  that involves improving the quality and reducing the number of variables.

Last year was a wild ride for financial advisors , who steered clients through turmoil and saw 9 percent growth—a record—in median assets per advisor compared with the year prior. McKinsey’s annual report on The state of North American retail wealth management collected data from roughly 70,000 North American financial advisors. Among findings: fee-based revenues grew but were offset by a decline in fee pricing.

Our most recent edition of McKinsey for Kids introduces younger audiences to mangrove forests and explains why building a “business case” for mangroves can help protect Bengal tigers and king cobras. For more perspectives, please see the full  collection  of our coronavirus-related content, visual insights from our “ chart of the day ,” a curated collection of our  first 100 articles  related to the coronavirus, our  suite of tools  to help leaders respond to the pandemic, and how our editors choose  images  that help readers visualize the impact of an invisible threat.

This briefing note was edited by Katy McLaughlin, a senior editor in the Southern California office. 

COVID-19: Briefing note #55, May 19, 2021

Making the most of the great reset..

After a long pandemic pause, some parts of the world are finally contemplating a restart. Where the virus is subsiding, people can begin assembling an approach to life and business that combines what they miss about the time before COVID-19 and what they discovered during the pandemic. That future must include a plan for those, such as the unemployed, who are still stuck on pause.

This week, McKinsey took a deep dive into employment and workplace issues, with multiple studies, articles, and podcasts.

A McKinsey survey of 100 executives found that 90 percent envision a future with some combination of remote and on-site work, but most (68 percent) have no detailed plan for how it will work. The surveyed executives, from a wide range of industries, have good reason to desire a future with remote options: large numbers say it has led to increases in productivity and customer satisfaction.

To help companies design their strategies, McKinsey experts suggest hybrid approaches for general and administrative functions , categorizing them into four types with varying needs for interaction. Office versus home is not the only paradigm; options include teams that work mostly remotely but come together for periods of intense collaboration, or hub-and-spoke systems where remote workers can come into satellite or coworking spaces as desired.

On the McKinsey Talks Talent Podcast , partners Susan Lund and Bryan Hancock and senior partner Bill Schaninger discuss new McKinsey Global Institute research  on the lasting impact of the pandemic on labor demand . In the United States, 17 million people are in jobs that may see less demand, while globally 100 million people may need new skills. The daunting panorama, particularly for workers in retail and travel, underscores the need to reskill and move jobs to people and people to jobs.

Vaccine development need never be the same after the pandemic. McKinsey researchers examined how it was possible to gain approval for three COVID-19 vaccines in a mere 11 months . The unprecedented speed was due to regulators moving faster, companies and governments accepting high investment risk for billions of dollars, around-the-clock lab work, and—because the virus spread with tragic speed—accelerated clinical trials. Some of the victories, such as fast decision making within pharma companies and high tolerance for investment risk, could be applied to future drug development.

Viral-vector gene therapy is emerging as a scientific superstar, its power demonstrated by one of the early-approved COVID-19 vaccines. This technology poses abundant promise  but also several challenges, including the expense and side effects of high doses.

Even amid so much change, television advertising is still relevant. Advertisers often simply hand off their broadcast strategies to media agencies, but evaluating data faster, adjusting ad placement, and increasing the frequency of media tenders can help companies get the most out of their TV spending .

Our  Author Talks   series features Dambisa Moyo, an economist who currently sits on the boards of Chevron, 3M, and Condé Nast, on her new book, How Boards Work: And How They Can Work Better in a Chaotic World  (Basic Books, 2021). The book outlines traditional board tasks and describes new “cultural frontier” responsibilities. In their new book, Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment  (Hachette Book Group, May 2021), strategy experts Daniel Kahneman and Olivier Sibony examine the unwanted variability in professional judgments and explain how to practice “decision hygiene.” Our most recent edition of McKinsey for Kids introduces younger audiences to mangrove forests and explains why building a “business case” for mangroves can help protect Bengal tigers and king cobras. For more perspectives, please see the full  collection  of our coronavirus-related content, visual insights from our “ chart of the day ,” a curated collection of our  first 100 articles  related to the coronavirus, our  suite of tools  to help leaders respond to the pandemic, and how our editors choose  images  that help readers visualize the impact of an invisible threat.

COVID-19: Briefing note #54, May 12, 2021

Don’t let the pandemic whittle away at the workforce..

The pandemic has hit everyone hard, but some groups have suffered in unique ways. Working mothers, Asian Americans, and nurses are among those whose difficulties at work and at home—which for many is now the same stressful place—could result in a retreat from their careers. As employers prepare to emerge from the crisis, they must find creative ways to support the hardest-hit communities, which can require rethinking long-held beliefs.

The pandemic has been brutal for working mothers , a third of whom say they are considering leaving the workforce or downshifting their careers. One of the culprits is the double shift, the eternal burden of working mothers that has gotten worse during the COVID-19 crisis and is even more troubling for women of color. Companies can help by providing emergency childcare and tutoring services, offering to continue remote work for those who want it, and revising hiring standards to eliminate the bias against gaps in employment.

A McKinsey survey of 400 frontline nurses revealed that 22 percent may leave their jobs providing direct patient care in the next year, a reflection of the physical and mental strain the pandemic has placed upon the profession. Employers should counteract this by improving in four key areas: providing more recognition, incentives, and breaks; offering flexible scheduling; finding opportunities for nurses to provide telemedicine services and other innovative patient-care delivery methods; and reskilling, so that nurses can keep up with technological advances.

Asian Americans have long struggled for equality in the workplace, a fact reflected by their low representation in senior-level jobs relative to their representation in entry-level jobs. In a series of charts based on survey data from McKinsey’s latest Women in the Workplace  report, created in partnership with LeanIn.org, we explore the negative effects the pandemic has had on Asian Americans , concerning stress levels, engagement in work, and sense of opportunity. Solutions include promoting the practice of sponsorship and expanding workplace flexibility.

McKinsey also looked at the US dairy industry’s tumultuous first pandemic year, which included milk dumping in April 2020 even as some store dairy cases sat empty. Our survey of 50 US dairy CEOs in the fourth quarter of 2020, followed by interviews , revealed a sense of optimism combined with concern over changing consumer tastes. Best practices this year include being proactive about health and sustainability messaging, expanding the talent pool to include remote workers, and making supply chains more resilient.

On The McKinsey Podcast , former Unilever CEO Paul Polman and McKinsey senior partner Dame Vivian Hunt discuss why, increasingly, the way for companies to deliver resilience, longevity, and growth is to build stakeholder capitalism . The pandemic illustrated how expensive it is to let a health problem fester; companies should learn this lesson and apply it to broad social issues including the environment and diversity.

Our  Author Talks   series features former Best Buy CEO and chairman Hubert Joly on his new book, The Heart of Business: Leadership Principles for the Next Era of Capitalism (Harvard Business Review Press, May 2021). Mr. Joly, who currently lectures at Harvard Business School, writes about what it means to lead with purpose and humanity. Our most recent edition of McKinsey for Kids introduces younger audiences to mangrove forests and explains why building a “business case” for mangroves can help protect Bengal tigers and king cobras. For more perspectives, please see the full  collection  of our coronavirus-related content, visual insights from our “ chart of the day ,” a curated collection of our  first 100 articles  related to the coronavirus, our  suite of tools  to help leaders respond to the pandemic, and how our editors choose  images  that help readers visualize the impact of an invisible threat.

COVID-19: Briefing note #53, May 5, 2021

How can we prepare the workforce for the postpandemic world.

During the pandemic, we learned to cope; in the postpandemic world, we need to learn to thrive. Companies emerging from the crisis are realizing that workforces require new capabilities to face the digital and environmental future. This week, McKinsey examined what industries should do to develop the talent and knowledge they need.

To flourish during and after the pandemic, companies need a new set of skills , including social and emotional, advanced cognitive, and digital capabilities. In a recent McKinsey Global Survey , 69 percent of respondents said that building the skills of existing staff is more important than any other method of talent building, including hiring. It’s time for companies to strategize talent development and identify the most effective options, including digital learning and in-person workshops.

Boards and management responded to the pandemic by working harder and collaborating more on crisis management. Having found more effective ways to work together, directors and managers should build on the momentum by continuing to hold some meetings remotely, even when it is no longer required for health reasons, engaging in more formal and informal contact, and focusing on corporate resilience.

Business leaders are feeling good about the global economy . In the April McKinsey Global Survey on economic sentiment, 73 percent of respondents said they believe that conditions will improve in the next six months. The share of executives expecting conditions to worsen has shrunk by more than half in the past three months. Sentiment is most buoyant in North America and Greater China and most negative in India and Latin America, where the pandemic has recently taken a devastating toll.

Meanwhile, workers may be too groggy to feel optimistic about anything. This edition of the McKinsey Quarterly Five Fifty , a quick look accompanied by an optional deep dive , examines “ the great exhaustion ,” in which nearly half of all workers surveyed report symptoms of burnout brought on by hybrid work.

The world could gain a new seventh largest economy by 2030 if Indonesia can return to its prepandemic growth rate . McKinsey proposes ten ways to reignite Indonesia’s economy, including by investing in its healthcare system, adopting modern agricultural technologies, and promoting domestic tourism.

• How can companies succeed in their green initiatives? McKinsey examined thousands of companies’ greenhouse-gas-emissions disclosures and identified factors that contributed to success.
• Biotech had a banner year , but to keep building, companies need to find more talent and get better at going to market.
• Medtech must change to take advantage of the digital transformation of healthcare. Patients, not products, need to be the new focus.
• To win market share for battery-electric vehicles in China , Western automakers must understand what the Chinese consumer wants.

Our most recent edition of McKinsey for Kids introduces younger audiences to mangrove forests and explains why building a “business case” for mangroves can help protect Bengal tigers and King cobras. Our Author Talks series features Ohio State University professor Angus Fletcher on his new book, Wonderworks: The 25 Most Powerful Inventions in the History of Literature , about a neuroscience-based method of reading and teaching literature that reveals its power to inspire. For more perspectives, please see the full  collection  of our coronavirus-related content, visual insights from our “ chart of the day ,” a curated collection of our  first 100 articles  related to the coronavirus, our  suite of tools  to help leaders respond to the pandemic, and how our editors choose  images  that help readers visualize the impact of an invisible threat.

COVID-19: Briefing note #52, April 28, 2021

The pandemic is a fierce teacher, but how do we apply the lessons.

We know the COVID-19 pandemic has changed consumer behavior, attitudes toward office work, and even some views about society itself. But knowing something and knowing what to do about it are two different things. This week, McKinsey looked across industries and sectors at how knowledge—increasingly, though not exclusively, generated by advanced-analytics technology—can be used to improve the way we tackle challenges.

The pandemic reshaped what consumers buy and how they go about getting it. The challenge for consumer-packaged-goods companies is to redesign their supply-chain operating models  to be resilient enough to meet new consumer demands. Because each company is different, key first steps include identifying unique strengths and honing in on the most critical objectives.

Among the most obvious pandemic takeaways: workplaces will never be the same , and companies that want to lure workers back in will have to dangle more than a sterile “cube farm” and lukewarm office coffee. But for tenants, it’s not obvious how the future will play out in their office spaces, so owner/operators must take the lead, offering more flexible leasing models, redesigning layouts to accommodate hybrid work, and supplying a “wow factor.”

The pandemic gave many business leaders practice in thinking about an external issue as a core concern. Stakeholder capitalism, similarly, asks business leaders to define their mission  as creating long-term value not only for shareholders but also for customers, suppliers, employees, communities, and others. Making stakeholder capitalism work  requires five steps, including identifying stakeholders, defining ways to serve them, and committing to a long-term outlook.

Private markets experienced a year of disruption, starting with a “COVID correction” in the second quarter and followed by a K-shaped recovery that favored private equity and left real estate lagging. These are some of the insights found in the McKinsey Global Private Markets Review 2021 , a thorough analysis of the bumpy ride of 2020.

• Advanced analytics could revolutionize cancer treatment , but use of this technology is underdeveloped. The field is held back by factors that include a lack of data scientists with oncology expertise. But companies that solve the biggest problem—a cultural tendency toward skepticism of analytics techniques—will move fastest in adopting these game-changing tools.
• Digital analytics have transformed nearly every part of how companies operate, except for the one that guides them all: strategy. It’s time for leaders to bring advanced analytics into the strategy room  to help reduce bias, identify trends, and spot growth opportunities.
• As companies rebuild and restructure for the next normal , they need to determine how and where to invest in new capabilities. CFOs are ideally positioned to identify capability needs , articulate the value in investing in them to C-suite leaders, and steer resources where they are most required.
• The McKinsey Podcast this week delves into that most complex of human relationships. No, not with Mom, the ex, nor the teenage offspring. Instead, Tera Allas, director of research and economics in McKinsey’s London office, examines the power our bosses have over us , why working from home changed some dynamics, and how important it is to organizations for bosses to be better at the job.

Business leaders crave new perspectives. In Our Asian Voices , a new feature, 72 Asian colleagues at McKinsey raise their voices and share their stories. For more perspectives, please see the full  collection  of our coronavirus-related content, visual insights from our “ chart of the day ,” a curated collection of our  first 100 articles  related to the coronavirus, our  suite of tools  to help leaders respond to the pandemic, and how our editors choose  images  that help readers visualize the impact of an invisible threat.

COVID-19: Briefing note #51, April 21, 2021

Now that the pandemic has changed us, what else needs to change.

The COVID-19 crisis forced a sudden, new way of life upon the world, which scrambled for practical ways to adapt. This week, McKinsey looks at the less obvious, more fundamental ways in which the pandemic has forever altered us, revealing new priorities, capabilities, and outlooks.

We examine how the pandemic created a new sense of urgency to make US manufacturing more competitive . The crisis underscored domestic manufacturing’s role in providing critical health, safety, and national-security products as well as the sector’s need to invest, modernize, and revitalize the manufacturing process.

In an interview on how to prevent future health crises , Dame Sally Davies describes how the COVID-19 pandemic provided a master course, through success and failure, on vaccine development, data deployment, and global collaboration. Dame Sally, the United Kingdom’s chief medical adviser for nine years and now the master of Trinity College, Cambridge, established the Trinity Challenge, a coalition of leaders dedicated to preparing for future health emergencies.

McKinsey provides much-needed comic relief in this video  by two lecturers at Stanford’s Graduate School of Business. They identify humor as the key to connecting with colleagues, now that a pandemic and screens stand in the way. Their online course and new book make a case for why being a better leader today requires lightening up and having a few laughs.

• In this chart-driven analysis of the challenges Black Americans face at work , we examine ten key factors contributing to the inequality these workers experience.
• Our latest edition of the Five Fifty draws up a contradiction: the companies that most prioritize design  have nearly double the revenues of their peers, but less than 10 percent of McKinsey survey respondents said their firms have reached their full design potential. This quick read—with optional deep dives—examines how to maximize design’s potential for growth.
• Fintech start-ups are nipping at banking incumbents, but an active, business-building  response can turn the tables. The article provides specific examples of big banks, including Goldman Sachs and State Bank of India, which successfully broke the status quo with new initiatives.
• The Fourth Industrial Revolution means that new digital and analytics tools can help labor-intensive manufacturers  predict and manage employee attendance, skill matching, and turnover. Our authors explain how using these tools can boost productivity and earnings by double-digit percentages.
• A recent episode of The McKinsey Podcast asks, “ How can we learn to be better learners ?” Elizabeth Young McNally, a global leader of the McKinsey Academy, and Matthew Smith, McKinsey’s chief learning officer, discuss how to build “muscle” for adopting new skills. Put their ideas into practice with the 3x3x3 approach , McKinsey’s heuristic for creating goals and the accountability to achieve them.

Business leaders crave new perspectives. In Our Asian Voices , a new feature, 72 Asian colleagues at McKinsey raise their voices and share their stories—on what Asian identity means, what allies can do to support them, and how they are processing this moment. Our Author Talks series features two authors on how to make authentic connections: Communications consultant Susan McPherson  discusses her new book about replacing superficial networking with the pursuit of genuine relationships, and Karin M. Reed , a former broadcast journalist and communications expert, talks about her book on making remote meetings effective. For more perspectives, please see the full  collection  of our coronavirus-related content, visual insights from our “ chart of the day ,” a curated collection of our  first 100 articles  related to the coronavirus, our  suite of tools  to help leaders respond to the pandemic, and how our editors choose  images  that help readers visualize the impact of an invisible threat.

COVID-19: Briefing note #50, April 14, 2021

No one is safe until we are all safe, so how can vaccine programs work for everyone.

With multiple approved vaccine candidates worldwide and manufacturing capacity that covers 85 percent of the world’s population, hope is surging. But getting vaccination right is multifaceted, with abundant opportunities for missteps, and complicated by variants that can throw even the best-oiled system into disarray.

The McKinsey Podcast this week features senior partners Lieven Van der Veken and Tania Zulu Holt outlining what we’ve learned so far about a well-built vaccine rollout . Each country’s program is a complex system of component parts , and the challenge is making sure a weakness in one area doesn’t delay or derail everything else. A key question countries face is how to inspire popular acceptance of the vaccine. The answer? Perhaps another Elvis, who played a role in promoting the polio vaccine in the 1950s.

Employers can also play a key role in the quest for herd immunity. In a recent McKinsey survey of more than 400 US-based companies, over 40 percent of employees said they would be significantly more likely to get the vaccine if their employers helped them do it. Paid time off to get vaccinated was the most popular incentive, but information and appointment help also rated high.

Such efforts are not just niceties. If new variants take hold, US herd immunity will not occur if the populations that describe themselves as either “cautious” or “unlikely” abstain.

We looked into which sectors will benefit from a rebound in consumer spending, including the wellness  arena, a $1.5 trillion market growing at 5 to 10 percent per year. The new edition of The Next Normal  takes a deep dive into the post-COVID-19 world of shopping, where the tech-enabled “store of the future” can double retailers’ earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) margins. The catch? Retailers need to make plans for the “ phygital ” future now, or get left behind. For a look at how a century-old fashion firm is preparing, see our interview  with Tiger of Sweden’s CEO.

• This study proposes a geographic approach to diversity , in which companies locate second headquarters or branches in places where more Black people live. The seldom-used strategy addresses one of the ten key challenges facing Black Americans at work .
• In the Inside the Strategy Room podcast , we explore how the pandemic pushed boards to meet more frequently and confront crises—while warding off groupthink.
• STEM-oriented, digitally capable employees have lots of job choices these days, which is a headwind for aerospace and defense companies. The sector can reinvigorate its talent pipeline  through partnerships and diversity-hiring practices.
• Companies need to rethink how they view the cost of carbon reduction  and retool their businesses piece by piece to bring climate change goals and dollars into line.

Business leaders crave new perspectives. In Our Asian Voices , a new feature, 72 Asian colleagues at McKinsey raise their voices and share their stories—on what Asian identity means, what allies can do to support them, and how they are processing this moment. Our Author Talks series features top Hollywood voice and dialect coach Denise Woods  discussing her new book on how to use breath and vocal variety and color for better communication. For more perspectives, please see the full  collection  of our coronavirus-related content, visual insights from our “ chart of the day ,” a curated collection of our  first 100 articles  related to the coronavirus, our  suite of tools  to help leaders respond to the pandemic, and how our editors choose  images  that help readers visualize the impact of an invisible threat.

COVID-19: Briefing note #49, April 7, 2021

In the new world of work, which are the ties that bind.

As economies reopen, many companies plan to combine remote work with time in the office to get the best mix of productivity and collaboration. But with employees feeling anxious and burned out, getting the balance of the new hybrid model right is critical. We surveyed 5,000 employees to find out what they’re saying about remote work  and summarized the findings in a dozen charts. Here’s an important one: any communication helps a little, but detailed information on policies and plans helps much more.

Along with employee burnout and anxiety has come a lot of soul-searching. After a year of the COVID-19 pandemic, people are reexamining and remaking every part of their lives, especially their jobs. In another survey, we found that more than 70 percent of employees say that their sense of purpose  is defined by their work. Companies that ignore this do so at their peril because employees also say that if their job doesn’t give them purpose, they’ll leave for one that will.

This week, we looked into the next normal for several sectors, starting with airlines . Leisure trips will fuel the recovery, but it won’t be easy or quick. As senior partner Alex Dichter explains in a companion video , the industry could take on as much as $1.1 trillion in new debt by 2024. A successful return to profit will depend on its ability to restructure, raise equity, and invest for growth.

• For automakers and other mobility  companies, the future will be clean, connected, and electric.
• Fuel retail will also be affected. The industry has thrived by offering well-stocked convenience stores. Now, forecourt owners will need to add new lines, including electric-vehicle charging.
• The resumption of the credit cycle will offer new opportunities in consumer lending .
• Eat your own cooking: semiconductor  companies make the chips that make artificial intelligence (AI) possible, and can benefit by applying AI to their own operations.
• Every industry is moving to the cloud—but not all will succeed. The McKinsey Quarterly Five Fifty forecast is “ cloudy, with a chance of billions .”

We were pleased to speak with two notable industry leaders this week. John Waldron of Goldman Sachs discussed business priorities in the postpandemic era  with global managing partner Kevin Sneader and senior partner Carolyn Dewar. And Twilio CEO Jeff Lawson talked about how to close the communication gaps between business leaders and software developers in a conversation  with senior partner Paul Roche and partner Shivam Srivastava.

Business leaders crave new perspectives. In Our Asian Voices , a new feature, 72 Asian colleagues at McKinsey raise their voices and share their stories—on what Asian identity means, what allies can do to support them, and how they are processing this moment. Our Author Talks series features the writers of the best new business books; in this week’s edition, Joann S. Lublin  talks about power moms. For more perspectives, please see the full  collection  of our coronavirus-related content, visual insights from our “ chart of the day ,” a curated collection of our  first 100 articles  related to the coronavirus, our suite of tools to help leaders respond to the pandemic, and how our editors choose  images  that help readers visualize the impact of an invisible threat.

This briefing note was edited by Mark Staples, an executive editor in the New York office.

COVID-19: Briefing note #48, March 31, 2021

It’s year two of the covid-19 crisis. what comes next.

One year ago this month, WHO declared a global pandemic. Through a long and dismal year, McKinsey has tracked  the development of COVID-19 and its devastation and disruption. Today, we mark the milestone with a set of new reports and articles that look ahead with considerable optimism to the second year of the pandemic.

Public health is still the chief concern. In the latest installment of our perspectives on when the pandemic will end , we see progress toward normalcy during the second quarter of 2021 in the United Kingdom and the United States and herd immunity in the third quarter. The new wave of cases in the European Union means that these transitions are likely to come later. But new variants of the coronavirus and other risks threaten that timeline.

New US COVID-19 cases rose sharply in late 2020 and, until recently, declined nearly as steeply during the first few months of 2021. This pattern is similar to that of other respiratory viruses in the winter months, but in this case, many are not sure precisely why it has happened. One unexplored factor may be at work: the different patterns of human interactions. Some people get out and about  much more than others, but most epidemiological models don’t account for that.

The global economy has rebounded from the lows of 2020 (stock markets have too, though in different ways ), but its future direction is hazy, even by the standards of economic forecasting. Throughout the crisis, we have offered two essential tools for business leaders to plot a course; this month, we updated both of them. In April 2020, we published  a set of nine scenarios as part of our economic model and surveyed  thousands of global business executives about their economic outlook. Our latest survey  finds greater optimism about the economy and corporate prospects than at any time since the crisis began—and on a few fronts, more than in the past several years. Still, weak demand continues to threaten corporate growth, and the pandemic remains the biggest risk to growth in respondents’ countries. See our interactives about the scenarios and the surveys here .

Productivity has long been a weak spot in global growth, but the crisis might have kick-started a rise in productivity. As companies shifted rapidly to online channels, automated production tasks, increased operational efficiency, and sped up decision making and innovation of operating models, productivity also rose—and more growth may be in store. New McKinsey Global Institute research  finds that there is potential to accelerate annual productivity growth by about one percentage point in the period to 2024. The stakes are high. One percentage point of additional productivity growth per year in every country to 2024 would imply an increase in per capita GDP ranging from about $1,500 in Spain to about $3,500 in the United States.

How do companies find the extra gear needed for a sustained burst in productivity? As our researchers suggest, speed thrills  but also chills: companies need to work through five critical questions in the next few months to lock in the speed of the pandemic response in a way that does not wreck mental health or cause employees to burnout. According to a McKinsey survey, productivity is up for about half of all workers, with the other half reporting no change or lower productivity. Tilting that balance will be vital.

Also this week: The McKinsey Podcast listened in on the postpandemic state of fashion  (it’s sweatpants today, but tomorrow will be different). And our industry researchers took a look at African banking  in the new reality and the path forward for European grocers .

Business leaders crave new perspectives. In Our Asian Voices , a new feature, 72 Asian colleagues at McKinsey raise their voices and share their stories—on what Asian identity means, what allies can do to support them, and how they are processing this moment. Our Author Talks series features the writers of the best new business books; in this week’s edition, Saadia Madsbjerg  speaks on making money moral. For more perspectives, please see the full  collection  of our coronavirus-related content, visual insights from our “ chart of the day ,” a curated collection of our  first 100 articles  related to the coronavirus, our suite of tools to help leaders respond to the pandemic, and how our editors choose  images  that help readers visualize the impact of an invisible threat.

COVID-19: Briefing note #47, March 24, 2021

After a year when consumers did everything differently, what changes will stick.

Consumer behavior has changed: it’s a truism of COVID-19 analysis. What’s missing is a sense of what behaviors have changed for good and what are likely to revert to prepandemic norms. A new report  from the McKinsey Global Institute offers a view: e-grocery shopping is here to stay, while remote learning for primary grades could be headed for the dustbin of history. We devised a “stickiness” index (or, if we’re being academic, a gauge of behavior plasticity) to assess all the big shifts of 2020.

This week, we spoke with two prominent executives about what’s stuck with them from their pandemic experience. Chris Kempczinski, CEO of McDonald’s, spoke  with senior partner Greg Kelly about how the company has worked hard to stay relevant. For a restaurant chain in the crisis, that means excelling at delivery; McDonald’s expanded the number of its locations offering delivery to more than 30,000. Leena Nair, chief human-resources officer of Unilever, shared her strategies for caring  about 150,000 employees with senior partner Mary Meaney and executive editor Astrid Sandoval. For those in the workforce wondering when 2020’s pace of work might relent, here’s one encouraging sign: Nair says, “This speed is unsustainable.”

Also this week, our industry researchers examined the potential for Vietnam to rebuild tourism , the ecosystem opportunity for mobility companies , and the pleasant surprises B2B companies  have discovered as they adapted to online sales.

Finally, in the pandemic, many of us have spent more time with our children than we used to, and we’ve learned from them. In our new edition of McKinsey for Kids , we attempt to return the favor by taking a look at the food distribution system and food waste. Please share it with your young people, and let us know what they think.

Business leaders crave new perspectives. Check out our series of Author Talks , which features the writers of the best new business books. This week’s additions to the series include Gregory B. Fairchild  on the next frontier in racial equality and Nicolai Tillisch  on how to frame ambition (and not let it frame you). For more perspectives, please see the full  collection  of our coronavirus-related content, visual insights from our “ chart of the day ,” a curated collection of our  first 100 articles  related to the coronavirus, our suite of tools to help leaders respond to the pandemic, and how our editors choose  images  that help readers visualize the impact of an invisible threat.

COVID-19: Briefing note #46, March 17, 2021

In 2020, consumer goods and retail were shaken. what will it take to return to stirring performance.

The future usually arrives in an orderly fashion. But for consumer goods and retail, a year like no other meant that the future showed up early, and in an ugly mood. In March 2020, COVID-19 shut down retail locations across the world, forcing consumers to change their buying behaviors, and as a consequence, these two sectors may never be the same again.

Two new reports look at the changes wrought by COVID-19 in the United States and assess their long-term effects. In consumer goods , we examine four effects on demand and costs. Demand has proved highly variable and may remain so for some time; company performance has been all over the map, even within the same category; growth soared in 2020, and large companies captured a big chunk of it; and most costs will likely remain higher in 2021.

In retail , our research with the Retail Industry Leaders Association finds that success in a post-COVID-19 world will require hastened progress on four long-standing imperatives and three new strategies that will be increasingly critical in coming years. Consider one of the older yet still fundamental challenges: the shift to omnichannel, led by digital shopping. Our survey reveals that 65 percent of retailers base decisions about their store network on brick-and-mortar performance, without considering how changes might affect omnichannel. In a world where consumers pick their retailers based on digital offerings, that’s a recipe for irrelevance.

This week, the McKinsey Global Survey  returned for its annual look at IT strategy . The pandemic made clear that the technology imperative is stronger than ever. One key finding: more than half of respondents said that technology transformations have lifted revenues, reduced costs, and improved employee experiences in the past two years.

Finally this week, new research in operations finds that “ lighthouses ”—leading-edge manufacturing sites—are demonstrating that the benefits of an infusion of digital can go beyond mere productivity to create a higher base for future growth. A new report from our organizational researchers examines how HR  can build the organization of the future; our corporate-finance experts look at the state of corporate restructuring in Europe ; and The McKinsey Podcast talks through what it will take to build a more resilient and responsive government .

With vaccinations underway, executives everywhere are thinking about the critical next months of the pandemic. Start with the  McKinsey Download Hub  to find McKinsey’s latest research, perspectives, and insights on the management issues that matter most, from leading through the COVID-19 crisis to managing risk and digitizing operations. Also consider our special collection of reports on the next normal, which are a product of Our New Future , a multimedia series we created with CNBC. Our report collection includes a 172-page  report  on technology and data transformation, a 130-page  report  on the path to true transformation, a 206-page  report  on reimagining the postpandemic organization, a 157-page  report  on the challenge of climate change, and a 202-page report  on reimagining operational resilience.

You can also see the full  collection  of our coronavirus-related content, visual insights from our “ chart of the day ,” a curated collection of our  first 100 articles  related to the coronavirus, our suite of tools to help leaders respond to the pandemic, and how our editors choose  images  that help readers visualize the impact of an invisible threat.

COVID-19: Briefing note #45, March 10, 2021

After a year of covid-19, women in the workplace want out, and companies seek growth in all directions..

Here’s one of the more intriguing statistics from last year’s Women in the Workplace research : 77 percent of men think they share the load at home equally with their partners, while just 40 percent of women agree. Sounds like the guys have some “splainin” to do. Given that imbalance, and the enormous burden (three hours a day, or more) that COVID-19 has added to women’s workload, it may be less surprising that one-quarter of women in corporate America are thinking about leaving. Senior partners Alexis Krivkovich and Lareina Yee dig into the details, in the latest edition  of The McKinsey Podcast . And our salute  to International Women’s Day charts the impact to date and hints at the way forward.

This week, McKinsey’s Inside the Strategy Room podcast looked at a different kind of exit: the shift that companies need to make as COVID-19 fades and the next normal takes hold. Senior partner Martin Hirt and partner Anna Koivuniemi explain  how, with all signs pointing toward a significant, possibly historic economic rebound, companies need to pull out all the stops. Our research shows that outperformers seek growth in every dimension: core expansion, geographic, up and down the value chain, and in adjacent spaces.

Regarding that rebound: stock markets seem to have embraced the possibilities. Our latest capital-markets research  reviews the four acts of the 2020 stock-market drama. What comes next is anybody’s guess. But the “Mega 25,” which reeled in 40 percent of total public market gains in 2020, will have much to say about future developments.

Also this week, our industry researchers investigated the potential for incumbent telcos  to unleash digital attackers and surveyed consumers on all things mobility : autos, both gas and electric powered; trucks; and autonomous vehicles.

COVID-19: Briefing note #44, March 3, 2021

This week in mckinsey research: online learning has underwhelmed. vaccine development, however, is on pace for a surprising milestone..

Although teachers around the world have different styles and standards for learning, there is one thing on which they seem to agree: a computer is no match for a classroom as a place for kids to learn. We asked teachers in eight countries to rate the effectiveness of remote learning  between March and July of 2020. They gave it an average score of five out of ten. The grades were especially harsh from teachers in Japan and the United States, where nearly 60 percent rated the effectiveness of remote learning at between one and three out of ten. That barely beats skipping school altogether. While the quality and support systems around remote learning have likely improved since then, this is still a striking indictment.

Reopening schools depends in part on COVID-19-vaccine development, manufacturing, and distribution. In our estimate , if all clinical trials succeed, and if manufacturing commitments to scale up production hold true, more than 14 billion doses could be produced by the end of the year. Since most vaccines require two shots, that’s enough to vaccinate nearly 80 percent of the global population.

That said, there’s a lot of green between the ball and the pocket: new variants of concern have emerged; not all populations have equitable access to supplies; and technology transfer at the required scale is complex and far from assured.

These challenges also worry business leaders seeking the next normal. We recently surveyed 300 European senior executives to understand their strategy during COVID-19  and find out what was working best. One critical finding was that business-model innovation was by far the most important strategic lever. Almost 90 percent of the successful companies said that new digital experiences, new partnerships, faster product development, and other changes to the business model had made them more effective.

This week, our diversity and inclusion researchers produced two new reports. In the first, we consider the Black experience in the US private sector , which we hope serves to highlight the scale of the issues facing Black workers and leads to better understanding of the challenges they face, thereby galvanizing action for system-level change and better and scaled solutions. In the second, we look closely at private equity , in which gender and racial diversity are stronger in entry-level positions than in more senior roles. One idea for asset managers to consider: diversity assessments of investment targets, to assess risk and to understand the value-creation opportunity from improving diversity, equity, and inclusion.

Finally, the new edition  of the Five Fifty looks at healthcare, where ten promising innovations might speed effective responses to future pandemics and health crises.

COVID-19: Briefing note #43, February 19, 2021

The pandemic has hit america hard. our new #america2021 series looks at how the country can recover..

The US presidential transition is always a time for the country to reflect and reset. The 2021 transition is much more than that; given the once-in-a-century pandemic, it is a watershed moment. This week, we published a series of five memos  offering our latest perspectives on four issues confronting the country and how public- and private-sector leaders could organize to drive change on them.

Defeat COVID-19. Will 2021 be the year in which the United States gains a decisive upper hand in its fight against the pandemic? We argue that it is reasonable to hope that the first half of the year could be a bridge to “normalcy,” when many aspects of social and economic life can resume without fear of excess mortality. This memo  condenses the recent history of the COVID-19 crisis into must-see charts and sets out six considerations for those building bridges to normalcy.

Rebuild the economy. For America’s leaders, innovators, and changemakers, the post–World War II recovery offers valuable lessons for encouraging productivity, innovation, and social-capital creation in a post-COVID-19 future. Global managing partner Kevin Sneader and senior partner Shubham Singhal explore  the good policies, political commitment, and hard work that will be needed to replicate those successes.

Advance racial equity. Repairing the frayed social fabric in the United States is not a new problem. But as the civil unrest of 2020 showed, it has become increasingly urgent. Our experts contribute ideas for inclusive growth  for all races and the impact, in particular, of higher Black participation in different roles in the economy—a goal that the pandemic has set back.

Commit to climate action. The global transition to a low-carbon economy is well underway. In the United States, 23 states have established emission-reduction goals, and 12 have instituted carbon-pricing policies. Making good on those intentions will require new information, products, operations, and market innovations from public officials and business leaders. Our experts bring the best  of McKinsey’s decades of research to the task.

Organize for change. To make all this happen, public-sector leaders will need to move swiftly and decisively, bringing the whole of government to bear across all four priorities, even as they revitalize a federal workforce with plummeting morale and lack of trust in government leadership. In the final memo of the series, we distill the lessons  from successful government-change programs in a set of tactical ideas for leaders to consider.

Also this week, the McKinsey Global Institute published the first of three reports that examine the postpandemic economy. In The future of work after COVID-19 , we assess the lasting impact of the pandemic on labor demand, the mix of occupations, and the workforce skills required in eight countries with diverse economic and labor-market models: China, France, Germany, India, Japan, Spain, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Our research concludes that because of the pandemic, up to 25 percent more workers than previously estimated may need to switch occupations.

COVID-19: Briefing note #42, February 10, 2021

From lab to jab: how will the world ship vaccine doses to those in need our latest logistics research takes a look..

More than 12 billion vaccine doses have been announced by manufacturers for release in 2021, subject to successful clinical trials. The earth’s population is 7.8 billion. Coverage for a first dose seems adequate, until you consider the logistics. Manufacturing is concentrated in a handful of countries; regions without manufacturing must import the vaccine.

Our new research  looks into the considerable obstacles blocking these flows, including the need for ultracold supply chains, lack of air-cargo capacity, and counterfeiting. What’s needed is collective action on an unprecedented scale among manufacturers, governments, customs authorities, and others.

Some countries, such as the United Kingdom, are equipped with adequate vaccine manufacturing to meet domestic needs. But the United Kingdom faces other problems, such as the plight of small and medium-size businesses, which we described  in June 2020. Our update  shows that on many measures, life is getting better for these companies. But many are still dependent on government support, and anxious about what comes next.

Companies everywhere are reckoning with the first-order effects of the pandemic and trying to anticipate those of the second order. In this week’s episode  of the McKinsey Talks Talent podcast, our experts help you get out in front of the changes in middle management. Faster, flatter, leaner: companies have been trying for decades to thin their ranks. But amid the challenges of the pandemic, middle managers can still make valuable contributions, in new ways.

Stock markets seem to have established their own form of herd immunity. This week, marking the 50th anniversary of Nasdaq, senior partner Vijay D’Silva and executive editor Roberta Fusaro spoke  with Nasdaq CEO Adena Friedman about how markets are staying relevant, and partner Tim Koller weighed in  on how markets should be more inclusive, share more information, inspire innovation, and bring the world together.

Also new this week, we explored the nine traits  of future-ready companies, tracked down a winning formula for specialty chemical  companies, and spoke  with the new CEO of NXP Semiconductors.

Finally, we conclude Our New Future , a series of management discussions in partnership with CNBC; our final topic is the need for resiliency . Senior partner Katy George leads the discussion, joined by Arvind Krishna, CEO of IBM. One essential insight: resiliency isn’t a lever to be pulled; rather, it’s a combination of actions, technologies, and strategies that companies work on every day.

COVID-19: Briefing note #41, February 3, 2021

Executives still feel positive about the economy, advanced industrial companies are plotting their exit from the pandemic, and more..

The pandemic continues to dominate global economic sentiment. In our newest McKinsey Global Survey  of more than a thousand executives from all industries, the outlook is still positive, though not quite as strong as in early December 2020. Majorities of executives continue to believe that conditions in their home economies and in the global economy will improve over the next six months.

We also ask leaders about their home countries. The story there is mixed. Sentiment in India is up and is nearly as positive as it is in China. But in Asia–Pacific and Europe, the share of executives that is optimistic fell by double digits. And in Latin America, just 30 percent are optimistic, the lowest figure globally.

Advanced industrials companies are among the world’s largest—and those most affected by the pandemic. Worldwide, these firms (including advanced electronics, aerospace and defense, and automotive and assembly companies) employ almost 25 million people and generate about $9.3 trillion in annual revenue. The crisis has hurt sales, margins, and growth. In our new comprehensive report , we outline ten actions that industrials can take to undo the damage and pivot to a postcrisis future. Among the ideas: take advantage of the stunning developments in e-commerce. Companies that embed digital sales into their marketing models see five-times-faster revenue growth compared with previous levels, as well as 30 percent higher acquisition efficiency and cost reductions of 40 to 60 percent within sales.

Our researchers continue to track the long-running crisis of our time: climate change. In a new report, we address the potential for voluntary carbon markets . Some companies need carbon credits to offset emissions they can’t get rid of by other means. Others might have credits to sell. But carbon markets have a mixed track record. To build a better one, buyers, sellers, and a few other stakeholders need to come together. Our research for the Taskforce on Scaling Voluntary Carbon Markets , led by Mark Carney and Bill Winters, explains what’s needed. And in this week’s edition  of the McKinsey Podcast , McKinsey experts discuss what can be done to truly decarbonize global business at scale.

Also new this week, we outline a new portfolio model for biotech ; consider the potential for “smart quality” assurance in pharmaceuticals ; and share tips for government leaders  to unlock diversity and inclusion. Finally, we are pleased to speak  with Richard N. Haass, president of the Council on Foreign Relations, about his new book The World: A Brief Introduction (Penguin Press, May 2020), in the latest installment of Author Talks .

With vaccinations underway, executives everywhere are thinking about the critical next months of the pandemic. Start with the  McKinsey Download Hub  to find McKinsey’s latest research, perspectives, and insights on the management issues that matter most, from leading through the COVID-19 crisis to managing risk and digitizing operations. Also consider our special collection  The Next Normal: The Recovery Will Be Digital.  The first four installments—a 172-page  report  on technology and data transformation, a 130-page  report  on the path to true transformation, a 206-page  report  on reimagining the postpandemic organization, and a 157-page  report  on the challenge of climate change—are available now. The final installment is coming as part of  Our New Future,  a multimedia series we created with CNBC.

COVID-19 and the great reset: Briefing note #40, January 27, 2021

Vaccine rollout has run into problems. our new research explores where and why..

McKinsey research intently continues to examine the progress of SARS-CoV-2 vaccine development and distribution. Last week, we updated our series on the end of the pandemic  to consider the emergence of new strains of the virus and a slow start to vaccine rollout. Both represent serious threats to the timetable. This week, we looked more closely at the problems in vaccine distribution. We start by mapping the operating path, from raw materials to post-vaccination care. At every step, risks and challenges  are emerging. But so too are collaborative approaches that can help countries achieve herd immunity.

The pandemic has been a tough, real-life stress test for government disbursement schemes, highlighting not only opportunities but also gaps and vulnerabilities. Our new research  across 12 countries shows both. One key finding: getting aid to those who need it is greatly bolstered by digital payment channels, a basic digital identification system used by most people, and simple data on individuals and businesses that are tethered to that digital ID.

Gone but not forgotten: in the crisis, global CO 2 emissions briefly plunged, then resumed. Today, as economies rebuild, the climate challenge is again top of mind. For a new report published this week, we teamed up with the World Economic Forum (WEF) to examine natural climate solutions . Simply put, these are techniques to increase carbon storage and avoid emissions—through better conservation, restoration, and management of our priceless natural resources. There is no clear path to mitigate the damaging effects of climate change that doesn’t include natural climate solutions. The case is complete when you consider the urgent need to slow the destruction of the natural world. (We’re also collaborating with WEF on the Davos Agenda , the first of two events being held in place of its usual annual meeting.)

Also this week, we looked at procurement in the next normal , the greatly exaggerated rumor of the death of the vending machine  in Japan, the dramatic shifts in sporting goods  over the past year, and the rising value of industrial brands .

COVID-19 and the great reset: Briefing note #39, January 20, 2021

Asia is at an inflection point. new research looks at developments in industrial technology, renewables, travel, asean’s vast human capital, and china’s education system..

In 2020, the largest health and economic crisis in recent history forced companies across sectors into extraordinary measures to protect their people and maintain operations. Did the technologies of the ongoing Fourth Industrial Revolution (or Industry 4.0) help? Our new survey  of industrial companies (two-thirds in Asia) suggests three outcomes, starting with a huge win for companies that had already scaled digital technologies. Those that were still scaling faced a reality check, and 2020 was a wake-up call for those that hadn’t yet started on their Industry 4.0 journeys.

Other technologies are also changing life in Asia. While coal is expected to remain a significant component of India’s energy mix, the country is placing big bets on renewable power, which could make up nearly half of the global total electricity capacity by 2035. Among the biggest believers is Sumant Sinha of ReNew Power. Our interview explores  why renewables are different in Asia.

Our 2020 research  offered a perspective on the coming rebound in travel: how far, how fast, and where. Now, in an interview  with McKinsey, the president of online travel unicorn Traveloka explains the nuts and bolts of the rebound. The critical moves for this company? Giving a thousand employee-volunteers the tools they needed to help customers with more than 150,000 refund requests; extending credit to strapped customers who were having trouble saving for their big trip; and thinking about the local market beyond the big beach destinations popular with international tourists.

For many people, those beaches are a major part of the allure of ASEAN countries, along with sunshine, great food, and history. But as our recent research  shows, there is more to ASEAN than just that, and now is a good time to rethink ASEAN and its 650 million people, $3 trillion economy, ten countries, and history of robust growth: 5 percent over the past 20-plus years. In the latest Future of Asia Podcast , our experts delve into the question of whether ASEAN can maintain that track record after the difficult challenges of COVID-19. Short answer: yes, if the region can harness its extraordinary resources.

Across Asia, and the world, work is changing as digitization and automation spread. Hundreds of millions of people may need to raise and refresh their skills; some may need to change occupations. Up to one-third of these transitions may be needed in China. If China gets this right, it could establish a helpful reference point to other economies. The McKinsey Global Institute’s new report  looks at the skills revolution that the country needs to keep raising its standard of living.

Also this week, our researchers looked at scenario-based cash planning , the next wave of M&A in advanced industries , lessons from the fastest growing companies in logistics , and the potential for digital and analytics in steel .

COVID-19 and the great reset: Briefing note #38, January 13, 2021

The covid-19 crisis wrenched energy demand from its growth trajectory and workers from their cubicles. what happens next.

For a time in 2020, we stopped driving, flying, commuting. And we stopped buying the fuel needed to do these things. Today, even as economies have restarted, fuel demand remains subdued. McKinsey’s Global Energy Perspective 2021 , an annual report, analyzes  the ways in which the COVID-19 pandemic has permanently shifted energy-demand curves. Demand is likely to return to 2019 levels within one to four years, with electricity and gas rebounding fastest. But we do not foresee a return to the previous trajectory of growth in demand.

In the longer term, the energy transition—already underway before 2020—will accelerate. Power consumption doubles by 2050 as energy demand electrifies, wealth increases, and green hydrogen picks up momentum. Oil demand peaks in 2029; gas, in 2037. But fossil fuels continue to play a major role in the energy system in 2050. Our reference-case  modeling helps you understand all the twists and turns.

With workforces now located in kitchens, basements, and attics, what will happen to all those sleek urban office towers and their glossy suburban counterparts? The answer has to start with their current tenants. Our latest survey of CXOs, which focused on the corporate center , finds that most companies are intensely debating the issues raised by COVID-19’s work-from-home experiment, and many companies are planning substantial shifts in the next three to nine months. In the short term, 70 percent of corporate-center executives plan to reconfigure office space, as do 54 percent of business-unit leaders. Over the midterm, 30 percent of corporate centers want to terminate existing leases early, compared with 14 percent of business units. Finally, as they look to the longer term, 55 percent of corporate centers plan to shift toward fewer and lower-cost locations. Business heads showed more willingness to stay put.

In a crisis, it’s all hands on deck. Bank tellers are becoming financial advisors; fresh-faced managers are leading enormous projects; and companies are intently searching for people with the aptitude to become data analysts and mobile web designers. In this month’s edition of the McKinsey Quarterly Five Fifty , we document the trend underpinning it all: reskilling .

Also this week, we researched the long-term effects of the pandemic on biopharma , explained the nine keys  to becoming a future-ready company, and considered the long-run implications of 2020 on cybersecurity in Latin America .

Executives everywhere are thinking about the critical next months of the pandemic. Start with the  McKinsey Download Hub  to find McKinsey’s latest research, perspectives, and insights on the management issues that matter most, from leading through the COVID-19 crisis to managing risk and digitizing operations. Also consider our special collection  The Next Normal: The Recovery Will Be Digital.  The first four installments—a 172-page  report  on technology and data transformation, a 130-page  report  on the path to true transformation, a 206-page  report  on reimagining the postpandemic organization, and a 157-page  report  on the challenge of climate change—are available now. The final installment is coming as part of  Our New Future,  a multimedia series we created with CNBC.

COVID-19 and the great reset: Briefing note #37, January 6, 2021

One year ends, another begins. from disruption to transition, mckinsey research traces the pandemic’s arc..

One way or another, 2021 is likely to be the year when the world transitions to the next normal. As executives take stock of what’s just happened, and what’s to come, they won’t go far wrong by considering the ten trends that authors Kevin Sneader and Shubham Singhal analyzed  and the effects of those trends on the global economy, business, and society. First up in the next normal: “revenge shopping” as many consumers open their wallets for goods and services they’ve done without recently. Other trends to ponder—none traditionally associated with recessions—include startling growth in the number of new businesses, an incredible rise in productivity, permanent changes in consumer behavior, and the “bio revolution,” which may soon create different mechanisms of production for 60 percent of the global economy’s physical inputs. One thing’s for sure: 2022 won’t look anything like 2019.

Our recent survey of global executives focused on the here and now: even in the short term, optimism is growing. Our December 2020 survey  of global executives detected the highest levels of optimism since the COVID-19 pandemic began. Executives in Europe, North America, and developing markets report concerns more acute than others did; those in Europe, for example, remain especially worried about unemployment. But even these respondents are less downbeat than they were in the previous quarter. Looking ahead, the respondents’ expectations for their home economies are increasingly positive: 61 percent say global economic conditions will be better six months from now, up from 51 percent in mid-October.

The United States is the global economy’s linchpin; it’s no surprise that the rollout of COVID-19 vaccines there is under intense scrutiny. Our latest research details five challenges to at-scale vaccine adoption. Chief among these: consumer skepticism. According to our most recent US consumer research, 63 percent of respondents are cautious about the vaccines or unlikely to be vaccinated. The antidote? Conviction, convenience, and costlessness. If the 100 million Americans who are uncertain about the COVID-19 vaccine can be brought around through a combination of education, easy access, and affordability, the benefits will be enormous. We estimate  that new investment of about $12 billion, in addition to current programs, could bring forward the pandemic’s end by three to six months and generate an additional $800 billion to $1.2 trillion in US GDP.

Also this week, our industry researchers examined four topics: consumers’ uptake of US fintech  offerings, the resilience imperative for medtech  supply chains, B2B sales in Brazil , and the future of insurance in Africa .

Finally, we closed the books on 2020 by offering three summaries of a difficult, often desperate, and, yes, disruptive year: highlights  of our publishing, including our top ten, insights from the McKinsey Quarterly and the McKinsey Global Institute, and editors’ picks; a tale of 2020 in 20 McKinsey charts ; and, similarly, the 20 photos and illustrations  that helped us tell the visual story of a remarkable time. Thank you for reading, and best wishes for a better new year.

For McKinsey’s 2020 perspectives on the business impact of COVID-19 , visit our archive of several dozen briefing notes published throughout the year.

Matt Craven is a partner in McKinsey’s Silicon Valley office;  Linda Liu is a partner in the New York office, where Matt Wilson is a senior partner; and  Mihir Mysore is a partner in the Houston office.

This article was edited by Mark Staples, an executive editor in the New York office.

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The Impact of COVID-19 on the Careers of Women in Academic Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine (2021)

Chapter: 8 major findings and research questions, 8 major findings and research questions, introduction.

The COVID-19 pandemic, which began in late 2019, created unprecedented global disruption and infused a significant level of uncertainty into the lives of individuals, both personally and professionally, around the world throughout 2020. The significant effect on vulnerable populations, such as essential workers and the elderly, is well documented, as is the devastating effect the COVID-19 pandemic had on the economy, particularly brick-and-mortar retail and hospitality and food services. Concurrently, the deaths of unarmed Black people at the hands of law enforcement officers created a heightened awareness of the persistence of structural injustices in U.S. society.

Against the backdrop of this public health crisis, economic upheaval, and amplified social consciousness, an ad hoc committee was appointed to review the potential effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on women in academic science, technology, engineering, mathematics, and medicine (STEMM) during 2020. The committee’s work built on the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine report Promising Practices for Addressing the Underrepresentation of Women in Science, Engineering, and Medicine: Opening Doors (the Promising Practices report), which presents evidence-based recommendations to address the well-established structural barriers that impede the advancement of women in STEMM. However, the committee recognized that none of the actions identified in the Promising Practices report were conceived within the context of a pandemic, an economic downturn, or the emergence of national protests against structural racism. The representation and vitality of academic women in STEMM had already warranted national attention prior to these events, and the COVID-19

pandemic appeared to represent an additional risk to the fragile progress that women had made in some STEMM disciplines. Furthermore, the future will almost certainly hold additional, unforeseen disruptions, which underscores the importance of the committee’s work.

In times of stress, there is a risk that the divide will deepen between those who already have advantages and those who do not. In academia, senior and tenured academics are more likely to have an established reputation, a stable salary commitment, and power within the academic system. They are more likely, before the COVID-19 pandemic began, to have established professional networks, generated data that can be used to write papers, and achieved financial and job security. While those who have these advantages may benefit from a level of stability relative to others during stressful times, those who were previously systemically disadvantaged are more likely to experience additional strain and instability.

As this report has documented, during 2020 the COVID-19 pandemic had overall negative effects on women in academic STEMM in areas such productivity, boundary setting and boundary control, networking and community building, burnout rates, and mental well-being. The excessive expectations of caregiving that often fall on the shoulders of women cut across career timeline and rank (e.g., graduate student, postdoctoral scholar, non-tenure-track and other contingent faculty, tenure-track faculty), institution type, and scientific discipline. Although there have been opportunities for innovation and some potential shifts in expectations, increased caregiving demands associated with the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, such as remote working, school closures, and childcare and eldercare, had disproportionately negative outcomes for women.

The effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on women in STEMM during 2020 are understood better through an intentionally intersectional lens. Productivity, career, boundary setting, mental well-being, and health are all influenced by the ways in which social identities are defined and cultivated within social and power structures. Race and ethnicity, sexual orientation, gender identity, academic career stage, appointment type, institution type, age, and disability status, among many other factors, can amplify or diminish the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic for a given person. For example, non-cisgender women may be forced to return to home environments where their gender identity is not accepted, increasing their stress and isolation, and decreasing their well-being. Women of Color had a higher likelihood of facing a COVID-19–related death in their family compared with their white, non-Hispanic colleagues. The full extent of the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic for women of various social identities was not fully understood at the end of 2020.

Considering the relative paucity of women in many STEMM fields prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, women are more likely to experience academic isolation, including limited access to mentors, sponsors, and role models that share gender, racial, or ethnic identities. Combining this reality with the physical isolation stipulated by public health responses to the COVID-19 pandemic,

women in STEMM were subject to increasing isolation within their fields, networks, and communities. Explicit attention to the early indicators of how the COVID-19 pandemic affected women in academic STEMM careers during 2020, as well as attention to crisis responses throughout history, may provide opportunities to mitigate some of the long-term effects and potentially develop a more resilient and equitable academic STEMM system.

MAJOR FINDINGS

Given the ongoing nature of the COVID-19 pandemic, it was not possible to fully understand the entirety of the short- or long-term implications of this global disruption on the careers of women in academic STEMM. Having gathered preliminary data and evidence available in 2020, the committee found that significant changes to women’s work-life boundaries and divisions of labor, careers, productivity, advancement, mentoring and networking relationships, and mental health and well-being have been observed. The following findings represent those aspects that the committee agreed have been substantiated by the preliminary data, evidence, and information gathered by the end of 2020. They are presented either as Established Research and Experiences from Previous Events or Impacts of the COVID-19 Pandemic during 2020 that parallel the topics as presented in the report.

Established Research and Experiences from Previous Events

___________________

1 This finding is primarily based on research on cisgender women and men.

Impacts of the COVID-19 Pandemic during 2020

RESEARCH QUESTIONS

While this report compiled much of the research, data, and evidence available in 2020 on the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, future research is still needed to understand all the potential effects, especially any long-term implications. The research questions represent areas the committee identified for future research, rather than specific recommendations. They are presented in six categories that parallel the chapters of the report: Cross-Cutting Themes; Academic Productivity and Institutional Responses; Work-Life Boundaries and Gendered Divisions of Labor; Collaboration, Networking, and Professional Societies; Academic Leadership and Decision-Making; and Mental Health and Well-being. The committee hopes the report will be used as a basis for continued understanding of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in its entirety and as a reference for mitigating impacts of future disruptions that affect women in academic STEMM. The committee also hopes that these research questions may enable academic STEMM to emerge from the pandemic era a stronger, more equitable place for women. Therefore, the committee identifies two types of research questions in each category; listed first are those questions aimed at understanding the impacts of the disruptions from the COVID-19 pandemic, followed by those questions exploring the opportunities to help support the full participation of women in the future.

Cross-Cutting Themes

• What are the short- and long-term effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the career trajectories, job stability, and leadership roles of women, particularly of Black women and other Women of Color? How do these effects vary across institutional characteristics, 2 discipline, and career stage?

2 Institutional characteristics include different institutional types (e.g., research university, liberal arts college, community college), locales (e.g., urban, rural), missions (e.g., Historically Black Colleges and Universities, Hispanic-Serving Institutions, Asian American/Native American/Pacific Islander-Serving Institutions, Tribal Colleges and Universities), and levels of resources.

• How did the confluence of structural racism, economic hardships, and environmental disruptions affect Women of Color during the COVID-19 pandemic? Specifically, how did the murder of George Floyd, Breonna Taylor, and other Black citizens impact Black women academics’ safety, ability to be productive, and mental health?
• How has the inclusion of women in leadership and other roles in the academy influenced the ability of institutions to respond to the confluence of major social crises during the COVID-19 pandemic?
• How can institutions build on the involvement women had across STEMM disciplines during the COVID-19 pandemic to increase the participation of women in STEMM and/or elevate and support women in their current STEMM-related positions?
• How can institutions adapt, leverage, and learn from approaches developed during 2020 to attend to challenges experienced by Women of Color in STEMM in the future?

Academic Productivity and Institutional Responses

• How did the institutional responses (e.g., policies, practices) that were outlined in the Major Findings impact women faculty across institutional characteristics and disciplines?
• What are the short- and long-term effects of faculty evaluation practices and extension policies implemented during the COVID-19 pandemic on the productivity and career trajectories of members of the academic STEMM workforce by gender?
• What adaptations did women use during the transition to online and hybrid teaching modes? How did these techniques and adaptations vary as a function of career stage and institutional characteristics?
• What are examples of institutional changes implemented in response to the COVID-19 pandemic that have the potential to reduce systemic barriers to participation and advancement that have historically been faced by academic women in STEMM, specifically Women of Color and other marginalized women in STEMM? How might positive institutional responses be leveraged to create a more resilient and responsive higher education ecosystem?
• How can or should funding arrangements be altered (e.g., changes in funding for research and/or mentorship programs) to support new ways of interaction for women in STEMM during times of disruption, such as the COVID-19 pandemic?

Work-Life Boundaries and Gendered Divisions of Labor

• How do different social identities (e.g., racial; socioeconomic status; culturally, ethnically, sexually, or gender diverse; immigration status; parents of young children and other caregivers; women without partners) influence the management of work-nonwork boundaries? How did this change during the COVID-19 pandemic?
• How have COVID-19 pandemic-related disruptions affected progress toward reducing the gender gap in academic STEMM labor-force participation? How does this differ for Women of Color or women with caregiving responsibilities?
• How can institutions account for the unique challenges of women faculty with parenthood and caregiving responsibilities when developing effective and equitable policies, practices, or programs?
• How might insights gained about work-life boundaries during the COVID-19 pandemic inform how institutions develop and implement supportive resources (e.g., reductions in workload, on-site childcare, flexible working options)?

Collaboration, Networking, and Professional Societies

• What were the short- and long-term effects of the COVID-19 pandemic-prompted switch from in-person conferences to virtual conferences on conference culture and climate, especially for women in STEMM?
• How will the increase in virtual conferences specifically affect women’s advancement and career trajectories? How will it affect women’s collaborations?
• How has the shift away from attending conferences and in-person networking changed longer-term mentoring and sponsoring relationships, particularly in terms of gender dynamics?
• How can institutions maximize the benefits of digitization and the increased use of technology observed during the COVID-19 pandemic to continue supporting women, especially marginalized women, by increasing accessibility, collaborations, mentorship, and learning?
• How can organizations that support, host, or facilitate online and virtual conferences and networking events (1) ensure open and fair access to participants who face different funding and time constraints; (2) foster virtual connections among peers, mentors, and sponsors; and (3) maintain an inclusive environment to scientists of all backgrounds?
• What policies, practices, or programs can be developed to help women in STEMM maintain a sense of support, structure, and stability during and after periods of disruption?

Academic Leadership and Decision-Making

• What specific interventions did colleges and universities initiate or prioritize to ensure that women were included in decision-making processes during responses to the COVID-19 pandemic?
• How effective were colleges and universities that prioritized equity-minded leadership, shared leadership, and crisis leadership styles at mitigating emerging and potential negative effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on women in their communities?
• What specific aspects of different leadership models translated to more effective strategies to advance women in STEMM, particularly during the COVID-19 pandemic?
• How can examples of intentional inclusion of women in decision-making processes during the COVID-19 pandemic be leveraged to develop the engagement of women as leaders at all levels of academic institutions?
• What are potential “top-down” structural changes in academia that can be implemented to mitigate the adverse effects of the COVID-19 pandemic or other disruptions?
• How can academic leadership, at all levels, more effectively support the mental health needs of women in STEMM?

Mental Health and Well-being

• What is the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and institutional responses on the mental health and well-being of members of the academic STEMM workforce as a function of gender, race, and career stage?
• How are tools and diagnostic tests to measure aspects of wellbeing, including burnout and insomnia, used in academic settings? How does this change during times of increased stress, such as the COVID-19 pandemic?
• How might insights gained about mental health during the COVID-19 pandemic be used to inform preparedness for future disruptions?
• How can programs that focus on changes in biomarkers of stress and mood dysregulation, such as levels of sleep, activity, and texting patterns, be developed and implemented to better engage women in addressing their mental health?
• What are effective interventions to address the health of women academics in STEMM that specifically account for the effects of stress on women? What are effective interventions to mitigate the excessive levels of stress for Women of Color?

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The spring of 2020 marked a change in how almost everyone conducted their personal and professional lives, both within science, technology, engineering, mathematics, and medicine (STEMM) and beyond. The COVID-19 pandemic disrupted global scientific conferences and individual laboratories and required people to find space in their homes from which to work. It blurred the boundaries between work and non-work, infusing ambiguity into everyday activities. While adaptations that allowed people to connect became more common, the evidence available at the end of 2020 suggests that the disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic endangered the engagement, experience, and retention of women in academic STEMM, and may roll back some of the achievement gains made by women in the academy to date.

The Impact of COVID-19 on the Careers of Women in Academic Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine identifies, names, and documents how the COVID-19 pandemic disrupted the careers of women in academic STEMM during the initial 9-month period since March 2020 and considers how these disruptions - both positive and negative - might shape future progress for women. This publication builds on the 2020 report Promising Practices for Addressing the Underrepresentation of Women in Science, Engineering, and Medicine to develop a comprehensive understanding of the nuanced ways these disruptions have manifested. The Impact of COVID-19 on the Careers of Women in Academic Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine will inform the academic community as it emerges from the pandemic to mitigate any long-term negative consequences for the continued advancement of women in the academic STEMM workforce and build on the adaptations and opportunities that have emerged.

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